Shape of the Blue Jays: Guerrero, Rogers, Clement

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

Quick Hits: Reinforcements

• Trey Yesavage made another rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. It didn't go great (2.1 IP, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 K, 4 BB), and he failed to reach his 75-pitch target. Either way, it was his fourth rehab start of the year, as he continues to work his way back from the right shoulder impingement that he reported to camp with. The following day, John Schneider said the goal for Yesavage's next outing will be 80 pitches. It's just a matter of whether that start happens with Toronto or with Buffalo again. He seems to be one more rehab start away, at most, from rejoining the team.
• Most importantly, his stuff doesn't seem to be affected by the injury. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph and 19-20" of iVB on Tuesday, right in line with what we saw last year. His splitter averaged about 82 mph, which is a couple of ticks slower than it was in the 2025 postseason, but it also had almost 200 fewer RPM and three more inches of drop. This would bring the vertical separation between the fastball and splitter to nearly 15 inches. If that helps him induce more ugly swings like the ones we saw all throughout his magical October, then so be it.
• The Jays won three in a row earlier this week to salvage some ground, but they still need to get healthy. Hopefully, Yesavage isn't the only key reinforcement to arrive over the next few weeks. In terms of who could be on the hot seat when the time comes, Patrick Corbin has outpitched Eric Lauer in each of the past two turns through the rotation, but the jury's still out.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s results are matching his expected numbers. He's hitting for a 151 wRC+ through his first 24 games, and his wOBA and xwOBA are within seven points of each other. Among Blue Jays with at least 50 PA, Daulton Varsho is the only other hitter with a wRC+ over 110. Vlad is the best hitter in this lineup, and he's performing like it.

His production might even be a little unsustainable given his peripherals. His groundball rate is over 55% for the first time in his career, his average launch angle is lower than it's been since 2022, and he only has two home runs on the young season. He's finding a way despite lifting the ball less than he ever has, which was never a lot to begin with. On the other hand, his swing tilt and attack angle are both up from last year, so maybe this is something that will naturally work itself out.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Batted Balls, 2025 vs. 2026 (Statcast)

 

Stat	2025	2026
GB%	47.1%	55.3%
LA°	7.8°	4.5°
xSLG	.506	.486
Barrel%	12.2%	11.8%

Pitchers around the league took notice after he bludgeoned his way through the postseason. Guerrero is seeing more breaking balls this year (34.1%) than he has at any point during his time in the big leagues. A similar pattern developed in 2022 following his MVP runner-up season in 2021. Due to his reputation around the league, as well as the current state of the Jays' lineup around him, that isn't likely to change anytime soon. Let's see how he punches back.

Tyler Rogers

Absolutely nothing has surprised us about Tyler Rogers in the season's early going (12.1 IP, 0.73 ERA). The king of soft contact has taken things to another level in 2026: His groundball rate has eclipsed 70%, his hard hit rate is under 20%, and opposing hitters' average exit velocity is 82 mph. This is the submariner at his peak. A week and a half ago, the Brewers scored two runs in the eighth inning off him to win the game. One of those runs was unearned, and not a single batted ball left the infield. That outing remains the only blemish on his season.

 

Tyler Rogers sinker location vs. RHB, 2025 (left) and 2026 (right) - Statcast

I'm not sure if this is intentional or small-sample weirdness, but Rogers has been throwing his sinker up in the zone more to right-handed hitters. Thankfully, the conventional laws of baseball do not apply to a man with a -61° arm angle, so rather than facilitating more damage from opponents, this has actually had the opposite effect. Looking at his bat tracking splits tells us he has righties in knots right now. Their average attack angle against his sinker is down to -6°, attack direction is up to 17° toward the opposite field, and contact depth is three inches closer to the plate. These are all indicators that they're so absurdly late, even though the pitch is only 83 mph on average. Exactly how he wants it.

Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement is enjoying his best run of the year so far. He's hit safely in each of his last seven games and collected multiple hits in four of his last five. His slash line is up to .320/.327/.420 on the year. I'm not worried by the fact that he has only drawn a single walk through his first 101 PA; he walked just 4.6% of the time last year, and he's always chased a lot. Besides, that all becomes easier to swallow when he's hitting .320. He has struck out just seven times to that one walk, his zone contact rate is 94.5%, and he has 97th-percentile collision efficiency according to Statcast. He's squaring everything up.

Can this continue over a full season? Only 29 qualified hitters in baseball (from a sample of 283) have a bigger positive difference between their wOBA and their xwOBA than Clement. His BABIP is currently .344, compared to a career BABIP of .282. At the same time, he seems like the type of hitter that can reasonably outperform expectations because he hits so many line drives and puts the ball in play a lot. Like Guerrero, Clement is seeing way more breaking balls than he ever has after his record-setting October. Much of his success last year came against fastballs, both in the regular season and the postseason. It's not easy to hit after the whole world is exposed to your game plan on the biggest stage. Hopefully, he can keep them coming.

Ernie Clement Line Drive% Ranking Among 278 Qualified Hitters, 2026 (Statcast)

 

Rank	Hitter	LD%
17	Ildemaro Vargas	31.6%
18	Troy Johnston	31.6%
19	Ernie Clement	31.2%
20	Ezequiel Tovar	31.1%
21	Jorge Polanco	31.1%

All visuals and figures courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs. Up to date as of April 23, 2026. 

View full article