What To Expect From Kazuma Okamoto As He Begins His MLB Career With Blue Jays

[TomCent]

Kazuma Okamoto has chosen where he'll begin his MLB career. Will he enjoy early success there?

The stats --- basic and fancy --- say that he should.

Okamoto is heading to Canada after agreeing to a contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday (per ESPN's Jeff Passan). The agreement was completed one day ahead of the deadline for him to sign with an MLB club. The 29-year-old corner infielder was posted last November by Nippon Professional Baseball's most celebrated franchise, the Yomiuri Giants. 

Now that he's a big-leaguer, it's time to examine how good he can be out of the chute. Let's get into it, by the numbers.

Kazuma Okamoto Scouting Report

YouTuber @sshoharry put together a montage (set to cool Yomiuri cheer music) of Okamoto's swing in each year of his NPB career. Note the consistency of the leg kick and takeaway, both of which help to get the bat through the zone: 

Those mechanics led to some very healthy metrics in 2025:

• 80.4 contact rate
• 32.1 hard-hit rate
• 66.8 air percentage
• 47.2 pull rate
• 112.2 mph max velo
• 5.1 home run rate
• 8.8 swinging strike percentage
• 24.2 chase rate
• 4.0 pitches seen per PA

Sources: FanGraphs, Yakyu Cosmopolitan

The contact rate was a career high. The swinging strike rate was a career low. The air percentage was tied for second in NPB's Central League among hitters with at least 250 PAs.

His fielding metrics at first base were good enough to earn him a Fielding Bible Award from Sports Info Solutions in 2024. He's seen as serviceable at third base, and that is presumably where he'll play in Toronto, across from first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In this case, however, the glove is a lot less important than the bat.

Before last year, he was extremely durable, missing just eight games total from 2018 through 2024. But he missed half the 2025 season after suffering an elbow injury last May. Okamoto was on his way to a career year, too. He finished the season with a career-best 210 wRC+ and .454 wOBA to go with 15 home runs in 293 plate appearances. His walk and K rates were identical (11.3 percent each).

Lastly, he displayed stellar intangibles. He was the Giants' captain in the latter years of his tenure in Tokyo.

Will Okamoto Hit MLB Pitching?

Well, he did it in Japan, albeit in small doses. Okamoto faced Shota Imanaga, Roki Sasaki, Robert Suarez, and a handful of other current and ex-MLBers over the years.

Some of the highlights:

March 2022: In an NPB exhibition against the Seibu Lions, Okamoto rifled a grand slam off a then 20-year-old Sasaki:

For good measure, he went deep against Sasaki in the regular season.

March 2023: Playing for Japan in the World Baseball Classic, he ripped a hanger by Joe La Sorsa for a clutch three-run homer in the quarterfinals:

March 2023: In the WBC final against the USA, he crushed a Kyle Freeland cutter to put Japan up 3-1. The blast turned out to be the game-winning hit for the champs:

May 2023: Against Yokohama, he got on top of an 0-2 fastball from Trevor Bauer in a big way:

July 2023: At home against Yokohama, he jumped all over a fastball from Imanaga, who struck out 15 that night.

 August 2024: Against Hiroshima, he turned around 95 by ex-Rangers left-hander Taylor Hearn for a go-ahead, three-run tank in the eighth inning. It was the only long ball Hearn allowed in 35 NPB innings that season:

March 2025: In the preseason Tokyo Series, he sat on 98 from Cubs reliever Daniel Palencia and drilled it into the gap for a two-run double:

Who Is The Best MLB Comp For Okamoto?

The obvious one is Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Like Okamoto, he's a rarity: a right-handed-hitting slugger from Japan. 

Of course, it's not a perfect match. First, Suzuki had a superior slash line and walk rate in Japan. Second, he came to MLB at 27, while Okamoto is coming over at 29. Third, they play different positions.

But there is one area that can be compared: Okamoto's K rate. How much will it increase as he faces the world's best pitching? Suzuki went from 16.5 percent in his final NPB season to 24.7 percent as a rookie, followed by 22.3 percent, 27.4 percent, and 25.2 percent the next three years. Okamoto had a 17.7 percent career K rate in Japan.

As for a comp among MLB corner infielders: Based on Okamoto's projected 2026 production (see below), the closest to a fit is Giants third baseman Matt Chapman, 

Kazuma Okamoto MLB offensive projection

Models for 2026 are consistent; they rate him as a slightly above-average hitter:

Source	PA	wRC+	wOBA	HR
THE BAT	462	114	.333	21
THE BAT X	462	114	.333	21
FanGraphs	462	110	.329	19
Steamer	434	110	.329	18

For reference, Suzuki posted a 118 wRC+ as a rookie in 2022 and then exceeded that total each of the next three seasons. Okamoto's graph line might not climb the same way as he ages, but the initial plot points may land in the general area.

View full article

[Terry Mesmer]

Pretty good write up. A contact guy with some power -- sounds like a Jay.

My main concern is positional. Where will he play? Can he play good enough defence to be on this team?

Be nice to watch him Spring Training.