Dylan Cease's Durability Is a Big Bet for the Blue Jays, Even If It's Not a Guarantee

[Jesse Burrill]

What a way to begin the offseason! The first major free agent came off the board on Wednesday, and unlike in past off-seasons, it was the Blue Jays who made the first strike, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, with the hopes that not only would the 30-year-old lead the Blue Jays to postseason glory in 2026, but throughout the deal.

It's not hard to see why the Jays targeted Cease; no pitcher in baseball has more strikeouts over the last five seasons. He has finished top five in Cy Young voting twice in his career, and he’s been incredibly durable, making at least 32 starts in every season since 2021. Pair all that with the fact that he seems to be a good fit in the clubhouse and that there may be some more untapped potential in his arm, and it's a no-brainer to see why the Blue Jays were willing to make him their ace for the next seven years.

With any free agent signing, especially one of this magnitude, there is always risk involved. What if all the walks and fly balls he allows catch up to him? And what if he actually does get hurt? All of those concerns are valid, and honestly, there isn't a pitcher in baseball who doesn’t come with at least some level of concern, but it's that last point in particular that should be explored more.

Pitcher health is never a for-sure thing, but the Blue Jays have historically been able to do a good job of keeping their veteran starting pitchers healthy. Kevin Gausman has made 30+ starts in each of his four seasons in Toronto, Chris Bassitt did the same in his three years here, and, dating back to additions like Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Berríos, many of the starters they have brought into the organization have stayed healthy.

Is this simply because the team can identify which pitchers will hold up physically? Is this something the coaching and medical staff can teach? Or is there some amount of luck involved? The most likely answer is that it's probably a little bit of all three, but pitcher injuries are rampant all over baseball, and the Blue Jays are going to have to make sure the staff stays healthy if they want to repeat as American League champions in 2026.

As things currently stand, the rotation of Gausman, Cease, Trey Yesavage,  Shane Bieber, Berríos, and the newly acquired Cody Ponce looks good on paper, but it does come with some concerns. Yesavage took a massive innings leap in ‘25, Gausman is entering his age-35 season, Berríos ended the year on the injured list, Bieber is still building back up from Tommy John, and as good as Ponce was in the KBO, returning to MLB comes with its uncertainties as well. So, it's crucial that Cease stays healthy and effective on the mound, as pitching injuries could be a significant downfall for the 2026 Jays team.

Father Time comes for everyone, and it will come for the Blue Jays pitchers, too. Aaron Nola was long known as one of the most durable pitchers in baseball. He had made 30+ starts in seven straight seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season) until the injury bug got to him, as he made only 17 starts in 2025. Gerrit Cole is another example. From 2017 to 2023, he was the model of consistency. However, at the age of 33, he missed the first 75 games of the season due to an elbow injury, which ultimately led to him missing the entire 2025 season as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Now, this isn't just a problem that the Blue Jays are trying to solve; pitching injuries have been an epidemic around Major League Baseball. It got to the point where, in December of 2024, the league released a study that it called MLB’s Report on Pitcher Injuries. There's a lot to it, but some key findings were that velocity chasing, pitch design trends, and max-effort throwing all put more pressure on the elbow and shoulder, contributing to an increased risk of injury.

Now, to turn this back to Dylan Cease, his fastball velocity was the highest of his career in 2025, averaging 97.1 mph, and it wasn't just his fastball that saw a velocity spike:


His four-seam fastball, slider, and knuckle curve were all thrown at the hardest average velocity of his career, and the spin rates on each pitch were at or near his career highs as well.

Now, there is a lot more that leads to injuries than just throwing harder. There are several cases of pitchers throwing harder and continuing to have success. There’s no reason to think Cease couldn't follow that path. Yet, injuries can feel random at times. Yimi García injured his ankle when he slipped getting into a cold tub back in July. In 2015, Michael Saunders injured his knee by just stepping on a sprinkler head, and all the way back in 1993, Rickey Henderson got frostbite because he left an ice pack on his leg too long and had to miss three games.

The real question becomes, do the Blue Jays know what it will take to keep Cease healthy? In reality, they just might. They have a proven track record of doing so, and according to reporting by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Cease has already met with pitching coach Pete Walker and assistant pitching coach Sam Greene, who answered questions about how they could help him grow into a true number one starter. One can assume that included coming up with a plan to keep him on the mound.

The Blue Jays just made their biggest financial investment in a free agent in franchise history. So, no matter how you look at it, the team is going to be relying on Cease heavily as they look to repeat as American League champions. Keeping him healthy and effective will go a long way toward making that dream a reality.

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