Article: The Blue Jays and the Qualifying Offer

[Leo Morgenstern]

Earlier this week, a report from the Associated Press confirmed the price of this year’s qualifying offer: $22.025 million. That number, the average of the 125 highest MLB salaries in 2025, is just under a million dollars higher than last year’s $21.05 million QO.

The qualifying offer system gives teams a way to receive draft pick compensation for the loss of a player in free agency. If a team extends the QO to a player who rejects it and signs with another club, his original team will receive a compensatory draft selection. The placement of the draft pick depends on the team in question. Because the Blue Jays will pay the luxury tax this season, their additional selection would come after the end of the fourth round. 

The qualifying offer system also penalizes teams for signing free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. As CBT payors, the Blue Jays would be penalized particularly harshly. If they sign a free agent who rejected another team’s QO this winter, they would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s draft, in addition to $1 million of international bonus pool space for the upcoming signing period. If they sign a second free agent who rejected the QO, they would also sacrifice their third- and sixth-highest draft picks.

The Blue Jays signed their first QO free agent in the 2014-15 offseason, when they brought in Russell Martin on a five-year, $82 million deal. (His former team, the Pirates, would end up drafting Gold Glove winner Ke'Bryan Hayes with their compensatory pick.) That same offseason, the Jays also extended their first QO. They made the offer to Melky Cabrera, who rejected it and ultimately signed with the White Sox. 

The Blue Jays have since extended qualifying offers to six more players: Marco Estrada, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Matt Chapman. Estrada and Bautista rejected the QO but later re-signed with Toronto, while Encarnacion, Semien, Ray, and Chapman signed elsewhere, securing compensation for the Jays.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have signed three more QO free agents since Martin: George Springer, Chris Bassitt, and, most recently, Anthony Santander.

This year’s deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers – five days after the conclusion of the World Series – will be here before we know it. So, let’s talk through what decisions Ross Atkins and Co. will (and won't) have to make before then. 

Will Receive Qualifying Offer

• Bo Bichette

There is no question the Blue Jays will extend a qualifying offer to Bo Bichette, and there’s no question he’s going to reject it. Still 27 for another five months, Bichette will be one of the younger free agents on the market, and he’s coming off what was arguably the best offensive season of his career. He’ll be looking for a contract akin to the seven-year, $182 million pact Willy Adames signed last winter. 

Not Eligible for Qualifying Offer

• Shane Bieber
• Chris Bassitt
• Max Scherzer
• Seranthony Domínguez 
• Ty France
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Making things nice and easy for me, the rest of Toronto’s impending free agents are ineligible to receive the qualifying offer. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt each received qualifying offers earlier in their careers; Scherzer from the Tigers in 2014, before he signed his seven-year, $210 million deal with the Nationals, and Bassitt from the Mets in 2022, before he signed his three-year, $63 million deal with the Blue Jays. 

As for Shane Bieber, Seranthony Domínguez, Ty France, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, they are all ineligible because they came to the Blue Jays mid-season. To qualify for a QO, a player must have spent the entire season on his team’s roster. 

With that said, Bieber and Bassitt are the only ones out of this group who would have had any chance of receiving a QO anyway.

Bieber was able to sign a two-year, $26 million deal last year despite pitching just 12 innings in 2024 before Tommy John surgery ended his season. Now that he’s proven he’s healthy, he’s a safe bet to decline his $16 million player option for 2026, and he should be able to command a significantly higher guarantee on the open market. 

Meanwhile, Bassitt is one of just nine pitchers to have made at least 30 starts and qualified for the ERA title in each of the past three seasons. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings with a lower ERA in that time. In other words, he has given the Blue Jays exactly what they signed up for at a $21 million AAV three years ago. So, it would be perfectly reasonable for the team to offer him one more year at just over $22 million – especially since they wouldn’t have to give up a draft pick or any international bonus pool space this time. Of course, for precisely the reason the Jays had to sacrifice their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 of international bonus pool space in 2023, this whole point is moot. A player can only receive the QO once in his career, so Bassitt is off the hook.

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[glory]

Bieber was traded mid season, so he's not eligible to receive the QO. 

[Vancouverite]

7 minutes ago, glory said:

Bieber was traded mid season, so he's not eligible to receive the QO. 

even if he's technically signed for next season but, has a player option to opt out, and Jays would have to pay a buy out?

[glory]

16 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

even if he's technically signed for next season but, has a player option to opt out, and Jays would have to pay a buy out?

A player has to spend the entire season with the same team in his FA year in order to qualify for a QO. If Bieber becomes a FA this winter then the Jays can't offer it to him. 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Vancouverite said:

even if he's technically signed for next season but, has a player option to opt out, and Jays would have to pay a buy out?

Yes, his player option includes a 4m buyout if he doesn't exercise the player option. Unless the Jays negotiated for Cleveland to pay all or part of it, they'll have to pay it out. 

It would absolutely crazy for Bieber to exercise his player option if he's fully healthy. The only thing I can think of is that he signs a renegotiated deal with the Jays that tacks on years IF he exercises his player option to stay. Something like, he announces he is exercising his option and the Jays add on 3-4 years at 20+ per year. 

[G-Snarls]

21 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Yes, his player option includes a 4m buyout if he doesn't exercise the player option. Unless the Jays negotiated for Cleveland to pay all or part of it, they'll have to pay it out. 

It would absolutely crazy for Bieber to exercise his player option if he's fully healthy. The only thing I can think of is that he signs a renegotiated deal with the Jays that tacks on years IF he exercises his player option to stay. Something like, he announces he is exercising his option and the Jays add on 3-4 years at 20+ per year. 

I'm like 50/50 on trying to retain Bieber for what he's likely to get as a free agent.  Pitching hungry teams with money will probably offer 3-4 year deals. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

55 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Yes, his player option includes a 4m buyout if he doesn't exercise the player option. Unless the Jays negotiated for Cleveland to pay all or part of it, they'll have to pay it out. 

It would absolutely crazy for Bieber to exercise his player option if he's fully healthy. The only thing I can think of is that he signs a renegotiated deal with the Jays that tacks on years IF he exercises his player option to stay. Something like, he announces he is exercising his option and the Jays add on 3-4 years at 20+ per year. 

I hope this is what happens. I think Bieber will have some very good years ahead.

[Leo Morgenstern]

2 hours ago, glory said:

Bieber was traded mid season, so he's not eligible to receive the QO. 

D'oh. Egg on my face. Really not sure how I temporarily forgot that Bieber was traded mid-season. I guess because he didn't actually pitch for the Guardians this year. 

The post has been updated. Thank you for the (incredibly obvious but necessary) correction.

[Vancouverite]

8 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Yes, his player option includes a 4m buyout if he doesn't exercise the player option. Unless the Jays negotiated for Cleveland to pay all or part of it, they'll have to pay it out. 

It would absolutely crazy for Bieber to exercise his player option if he's fully healthy. The only thing I can think of is that he signs a renegotiated deal with the Jays that tacks on years IF he exercises his player option to stay. Something like, he announces he is exercising his option and the Jays add on 3-4 years at 20+ per year. 

I really hope Bieber resigns here

It seems the Jays are making noise around the league how this is a top notch club house, competitive club, high payroll availability. 

Having a rotation of Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios next year would be awesome

[mphenhef]

Potentially having gold glovers at every position up the middle will certainly make Toronto attractive for pitchers I would think.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It sucks that Bo got injured but it's certainly given us a good look into a future without him. If he walks, the situation is far from dire. In fact, at this point I'd probably let him walk and look to pour the free agent dollars into starting pitching. I don't think I'd even chase any FA outfielder either. The team looks pretty set both now and in the future all over the diamond and bullpen. Just need some stud starters like Bieber and Cease.

[Omar]

I don't think you can take the last six weeks of results and then extrapolate that we would be fine without Bo. Without his bat we don't win the East and what follows.  It will be a big loss. 

[Ryu In My House]

11 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

I really hope Bieber resigns here

It seems the Jays are making noise around the league how this is a top notch club house, competitive club, high payroll availability. 

Having a rotation of Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios next year would be awesome

I agree. I think there is a decent shot. I don't know what gets him, 5-year, $125M? I think the FO has to be commended for signing and trading for character guys, guys who are great in the clubhouse and great team players. I think Bieber fits that bill. I strongly suspect there is mutual interest to get a deal done.