Article: What’s Going on With Yariel Rodríguez?

[Owen Hill]

Towards the end of May, I wrote an article advocating for Yariel Rodríguez to see more high-leverage innings out of the bullpen. Since then, he’s been a key fixture of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, getting some of the biggest outs before the ninth inning in a lot of games, and even picking up a couple of saves when Jeff Hoffman has been unavailable. 

On the whole, Rodríguez has had an awesome season, especially considering how limited the expectations for him were coming into the year after he struggled as a starter in his first big league campaign. He has a 2.95 ERA in 48 appearances out of the bullpen, with many of those outings longer than the standard one inning for a reliever. 

Still, the most difficult part of putting together a complete season, like the one Rodríguez has going on, is making it through the grind of 162 games, and the grind seems to be getting to him these days.

He’s got just two strikeouts to seven walks in his last nine appearances and has given up runs in three of his last four, including in both of his outings against the Dodgers.

The most obvious symptom of Rodríguez’s wavering stuff is that his fastball velocity is down. Over his most recent seven outings, he’s averaging 95.3 mph on his fastball, down from 96.1 mph in his 42 appearances before that. He’s also only touched 97 mph once since July 20, a number we saw from him pretty regularly early on in the season.

The dip in fastball velocity is concerning in and of itself, and when you add that to the fact that it correlates perfectly with his walk rate spiking to above 20%, it looks an awful lot like we’re on a fast track towards disaster.

As electric as we've seen Rodríguez’s stuff look at times, so much of his success has actually come from inducing soft contact. On the season, his opponents have an average exit velocity of just 86 mph, which is elite and has led to a very solid .187 opponents batting average. Combining that with a strikeout rate of 26.1% over his first 40 appearances made him one of the more effective relievers in the game.

Somewhat surprisingly, his ability to limit hard contact has remained despite the rest of his profile taking a stumble. It’s a small sample, and I’d be willing to bet that if he doesn’t get his fastball velocity back and return to limiting walks, these numbers aren’t going to last long, but in his nine most recent outings, his opponents have a hard-hit rate of 33% and an average exit velocity of just 83.1 mph. Those numbers have certainly helped to keep Rodriguez’s head above water as he’s gone through a rough patch. Still, we’re starting to see the results slip, as opposing teams have taken advantage of his lack of command to score seven earned runs in his last four appearances.

When a player goes through a slump, it’s easy to say what’s happening, but a lot more difficult to say why it’s happening.

As I alluded to earlier, Rodríguez could be feeling the grind of a 162-game season, and his body’s not quite recovering after appearances as well as it was earlier in the season. There’s also a chance he’s dealing with a minor injury that’s impacting his mechanics.

Even with the uncertainty around Rodríguez these days, the Jays bullpen is in a really good spot with the additions of Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez, as well as Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Tommy Nance, and Braydon Fisher playing some of their best baseball of the season.

Since he’s had such a great year, and the rest of the bullpen looks like it’s in good shape, I’m not ready to push the panic button on Yariel Rodríguez yet. But, as crazy as it is to say, the Jays are entering the home stretch of the season, and if they’re going to peak at the right time, they’re going to need to identify and fix whatever’s causing this recent adversity for Rodríguez.

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[Jays24]

Schneider got new bullpen toys and literally forgot about YRod who was our best bullpen arm all season imo.  Now when he does pitch, its between long breaks for some reason.  

[Owen Hill]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Schneider got new bullpen toys and literally forgot about YRod who was our best bullpen arm all season imo.  Now when he does pitch, its between long breaks for some reason.  

You're kind of right, he's only made 3 appearances since the trade deadline. But to be fair, his stuff was slipping heading into the deadline as well.

[Brownie19]

18 minutes ago, Owen Hill said:

You're kind of right, he's only made 3 appearances since the trade deadline. But to be fair, his stuff was slipping heading into the deadline as well.

It's almost like the team has all that information on him and is adjusting when and how frequently he's used based on that information.  How shocking.

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, Owen Hill said:

You're kind of right, he's only made 3 appearances since the trade deadline. But to be fair, his stuff was slipping heading into the deadline as well.

Every hitter/pitcher has their ups and down so if you cut bait on everyone when they had a slip then you wouldn't have a roster.  To think YRod was incapable of turning it around when you paid to lock him up longterm is a confusing decision.   

Look at our closer if you need an example, YRod should continue getting the reps even if its not all 100% leverage situations.  MLB seasons are a marathon, the best always rise to the top by the end.  

[Laika]

He was over his skis earlier this year

[Jays24]

21 minutes ago, Laika said:

He was over his skis earlier this year

This is agree with but I still think he deserved a longer rope before being removed from all high leverage situations.  It's like hes become our Chad Green now lol.  

[Laika]

10 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This is agree with but I still think he deserved a longer rope before being removed from all high leverage situations.  It's like hes become our Chad Green now lol.  

 

Why? Because feelings?

Projected ERAs in the pen. This is FGDC ROS:

1	Jeff Hoffman	TOR	1	1	7	16	0	16.0	11.44	3.00	1.07	.280	76.4%		3.20	3.24	0.4
2	Louis Varland	TOR	1	1	0	15	0	15.0	8.57	2.33	0.98	.282	74.9%		3.31	3.51	0.1
3	Trey Yesavage	TOR	0	0	0	2	0	2.0	10.89	3.30	1.01	.285	76.1%		3.33	3.36	0.0
4	Brendon Little	TOR	1	1	0	14	0	14.0	9.72	4.60	0.67	.297	75.8%		3.34	3.57	0.1
5	Seranthony Domínguez	TOR	1	1	1	16	0	16.0	10.65	4.11	1.02	.276	75.6%		3.50	3.69	0.2
6	Yimi García	TOR	1	0	0	8	0	8.0	10.05	3.21	1.08	.287	73.7%		3.65	3.67	0.0
7	Braydon Fisher	TOR	1	1	0	15	0	15.0	9.97	4.18	1.03	.290	74.2%		3.84	3.92	0.1
8	Tommy Nance	TOR	1	1	0	13	0	13.0	8.46	3.08	0.97	.302	72.0%		3.91	3.82	0.0
9	Robinson Piña	TOR	1	1	0	9	0	11.0	6.96	2.85	1.20	.278	73.1%		3.97	4.42	0.0
10	Yariel Rodríguez	TOR	1	1	0	14	0	14.0	9.39	3.84	1.09	.288	72.4%		4.02	4.05	0.0
11	Nick Sandlin	TOR	0	0	0	4	0	4.0	9.45	4.03	1.21	.278	73.0%		4.07	4.31	0.0
12	Mason Fluharty	TOR	1	1	0	12	0	12.0	8.85	3.49	1.18	.291	72.9%		4.08	4.17	0.0

 

He's an okay reliever but his present use is appropriate. There are better RP in there now because the pen is good. He has a 4.22 FIP on the year. And declining velo/stuff. He can hang out with Nance in low leverage. 

[John_Havok]

47 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This is agree with but I still think he deserved a longer rope before being removed from all high leverage situations.  It's like hes become our Chad Green now lol.  

You're right in general, if there was no underlying issues causing a decrease in his results. If the same stuff was there, and he's just run into a few rough outings (see Hoffman or Little), he probably gets that rope. 

But when you see the possible reasons for his decline being an actual slip in velo, stuff and control.... then you don't get that rope. 

[Jonn]

He doesn't miss bats that's his main problem.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Jonn said:

He doesn't miss bats that's his main problem.

Which can be mitigated if a guy induces mountains of weak contact. That is one area where Yariel does pretty good work. 

It probably means he doesnt really profile as high leverage. More like a multi-inning guy.