2025 Trade Deadline

[jmomcc]

7 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

having extended control of relievers is overrated, but it's not like they paid a crazy premium to get it & you'd MUCH rather have it than not. they dealt from positions of strength for the org that were blocked by other guys (loperfido's already up & i'd be willing to bet that pinango runs a higher wRC+ than both when he comes up next year + TINSTAAPP).

not to mention the years of control suddenly look amazing if he ends up being an SP conversion candidate in the offseason. he's always had great command & remember, this is a guy who's velo floor has skyrocketed over the last few years. if he's now sitting 95 as a starter instead of 93, with a platoon-neutral breaking ball (the curveball he added), look out. & if starting doesn't work out, upper echelon velo with good command will always play, there's a lot less risk of him completely flaming out like some relievers do IMO.

bieber got driveline'd before 2024 to get his velo back up & he looked like the best pitcher in baseball in the starts that he did pitch that year. he's essentially always been elite as long as his fastball velo's been above 92 mph (which it has been in his rehab starts) & was gotten for about as cheap as a guy who could realistically start game 1 of a playoff series would have gone. 

really liked this deadline, a lot of upside without giving up a ton of close to ML talent. every deadline as a buyer comes with some risk, but the upside for the risk that we took today could really be WS-defining.

 

If Varland starts, i love it. If that's the plan, that could be awesome. 

[InsideThePark]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

The more i look at varland.. i just don't see it. 
 

His stuff really played up in relief but he's still not even 9k/9. This is the literal first year he's been good and he's 27. He throws hard and he gets groundballs. That's nice but why is that so important in terms of getting control? 

The yankees got two better relievers for less than we paid for one. That matters way more this year. they both also have way more track record. 
 

Either spend more and get Jax who strikes out the world and has control. Or spend less and get better rentals. 

We chose the weird middle where we got control of someone with no track record and doesn't strike people out. 
 

He's essentially a slightly worse version of Fisher. I love fisher. The point is we can create our own fisher again next year. We don't need to buy control of that. 

 

3 years ago Jax was 27 in his first year of being a reliever with a 9.71 K/9, worse ERA and worse FIP than Varland has now. Sure would have been nice to trade for him then for cheaper than he cost today, get the last 3 years he had and still have him for this deadline and beyond. If only someone had to foresight to try something like that. Surely it's better to wait and pay more for less.

 

Of course there's way more risk with trading for the shutdown pen arm before they've got 3 years of results to back it up, but that's why it's cheaper.

[jmomcc]

Just now, InsideThePark said:

3 years ago Jax was 27 in his first year of being a reliever with a 9.71 K/9, worse ERA and worse FIP than Varland has now. Sure would have been nice to trade for him then for cheaper than he cost today, get the last 3 years he had and still have him for this deadline and beyond. If only someone had to foresight to try something like that. Surely it's better to wait and pay more for less.

 

Of course there's way more risk with trading for the shutdown pen arm before they've got 3 years of results to back it up, but that's why it's cheaper.

Well, yea the twins are obviously really good at producing relievers. That's probably why they are so happy to trade them all. 

[Laika]

Varland has the same projections as Helsley and Bednar by OOPSY. And a 10 k/9 projected too. 

It's really not difficult to see. Great Stuff+ on both of his main pitches. Gets a lot of groundballs so he doesn't HAVE to always go for the strikeout like Hoffman types do.

OOPSY thinks him, Bednar, and Helsley are basically a push ROS and the only better RP traded were Miller, Duran, and Jax.

[Rimar]

By the way, Varland (1.8) have better WAR than Bednar (1.3) and Doval (0.5)

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

How many teams added more talent to their MLB roster than the Jays over the last couple of days? If it wasn't enough, its because the team isn't good enough. 

Probably the Yankees, Redsox, Rays, Mariners, Astros, Phillies, Mets, and Padres.

Idk maybe im underrating Bieber but its not a certainty he comes back as an elite pitcher... just look at Alcantara

[metafour]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

The more i look at varland.. i just don't see it. 
 

His stuff really played up in relief but he's still not even 9k/9. This is the literal first year he's been good and he's 27. He throws hard and he gets groundballs. That's nice but why is that so important in terms of getting control? 

The yankees got two better relievers for less than we paid for one. That matters way more this year. they both also have way more track record. 
 

Either spend more and get Jax who strikes out the world and has control. Or spend less and get better rentals. 

We chose the weird middle where we got control of someone with no track record and doesn't strike people out. 
 

He's essentially a slightly worse version of Fisher. I love fisher. The point is we can create our own fisher again next year. We don't need to buy control of that. 

 

I did some digging on the notable relievers that were traded this deadline. Sorry bud, the underlying pitch data paints Varland as much better than you think. Better even than Bednar, and of course Doval as well:

Stuff+
Ryan Helsley: 129
Tyler Rogers: 127
Mason Miller: 123
Jhoan Duran: 123
Seranthony Dominguez: 113
Louis Varland: 110
Griffin Jax: 110
David Bednar: 107
Danny Coulombe: 107
Camilo Doval: 105
Phil Maton: 104
Andrew Kittredge: 99

Pitching+
Griffin Jax: 132
Tyler Rogers: 120
Ryan Helsley: 118
Jhoan Duran: 117
Louis Varland: 116
Mason Miller: 114
David Bednar: 112
Phil Maton
Camilo Doval: 105
Danny Coulombe: 103
Andrew Kittredge: 103
Seranthony Dominguez: 99

By the way, Tyler Rogers who ranks at the top of both Stuff+ and Pitching+ strikes almost nobody out, but he is impossible to hit and routinely beats his FIP by upwards of a full run.

[Stangstag]

5 minutes ago, Rimar said:

By the way, Varland (1.8) have better WAR than Bednar (1.3) and Doval (0.5)

Nice. I guess its just not the sexy name that everyone was hoping for.

[Terminator]

24 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Doval is debateable. There is no one in the entire world who thinks varland is better than bednar. 

Also, the fact they both got sent down is the exact reason why paying for 5 years of control is dumb. They both peaked way way higher than varland. They both flamed out at times. Maybe that should be a lesson. 

”It’s good the guys I like more were sent down to the minors!” 😂 

Even if that were true your example disproves your point.

You would want the years of control so you could ride the wave of reliever volatility. Doval and Bednar sucked but because their teams had years of control over them they were able to bounce back and apparently become such good relievers in your eyes that it makes the Yankees deadline an easy winner and ours an easy loser because we didn’t get them. 

[Stangstag]

4 minutes ago, Terminator said:

”It’s good the guys I like more were sent down to the minors!” 😂 

Even if that were true your example disproves your point.

You would want the years of control so you could ride the wave of reliever volatility. Doval and Bednar sucked but because their teams had years of control over them they were able to bounce back and apparently become such good relievers in your eyes that it makes the Yankees deadline an easy winner and ours an easy loser because we didn’t get them. 

I feel like i remember people saying the same s*** about Zach Pop when we acquired him. Oh he has 5 years of control, he throws hard, has a great sinker, stuff+ is actually really good, yada yada.

Track record means something IMO

[metafour]

Years of control absolutely does matter for a reliever, by the way. 

Because they are always so highly valued as deadline pieces, if the Jays end up underwhelming in any of the next ~5 seasons they can just offload Varland and likely recoup a good portion of what they gave away to get him. He is a pitcher with historically strong control and command, so its not like there is a high likelihood that he is going to just forget how to throw strikes and completely fall apart.

[glory]

I feel like Ty France is either going to be 2018 Steve Pearce or be awful and play a lot anyway because Schneider placates to vetrins. No in between. 

[jmomcc]

22 minutes ago, Laika said:

Varland has the same projections as Helsley and Bednar by OOPSY. And a 10 k/9 projected too. 

It's really not difficult to see. Great Stuff+ on both of his main pitches. Gets a lot of groundballs so he doesn't HAVE to always go for the strikeout like Hoffman types do.

OOPSY thinks him, Bednar, and Helsley are basically a push ROS and the only better RP traded were Miller, Duran, and Jax.

So... pay the much lower price on Bednar then. Obviously. Or Helsley. 

[jmomcc]

9 minutes ago, metafour said:

Years of control absolutely does matter for a reliever, by the way. 

Because they are always so highly valued as deadline pieces, if the Jays end up underwhelming in any of the next ~5 seasons they can just offload Varland and likely recoup a good portion of what they gave away to get him. He is a pitcher with historically strong control and command, so its not like there is a high likelihood that he is going to just forget how to throw strikes and completely fall apart.

The problem is that he could be bad that year and you don't get anything. 

Its my opinion that relievers are just inherently more variable than starters. 

[BTS]

10 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Probably the Yankees, Redsox, Rays, Mariners, Astros, Phillies, Mets, and Padres.

Idk maybe im underrating Bieber but its not a certainty he comes back as an elite pitcher... just look at Alcantara

I just don't see it with some of these teams. 

 

Rays added Jax and Houser. Lose Littell and Caballero. 

Red Sox added Matz and May

Astros added Correa and Urias

Phillies added Duran and Bader

Dodgers added Call and Stewart. Lost May. 

 

I think Naylor and Suarez will be hugely impactful, and the Padres and Mets also added pretty big, but I'd take Bieber, Varland, and Dominguez over what a lot of these teams added. 

 

 

[jmomcc]

Bieber is a good signing albeit risky. That is worth the risk. 

[jmomcc]

Let's say we were sellers and we got roden and rojas (let's say 45+ position player ready for the majors and a probable back end starter) for Fisher. 

Would you think  'wow, that's a big return for a guy with one good year' or would you think its fair? 

I would think that is an absolute haul and just think that i'll find another fisher. 
 

Fisher has similar stuff+ and strikes more people out. 

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, jmomcc said:

Let's say we were sellers and we got roden and rojas (let's say 45+ position player ready for the majors and a probable back end starter) for Fisher. 

Would you think  'wow, that's a big return for a guy with one good year' or would you think its fair? 

I would think that is an absolute haul and just think that i'll find another fisher. 
 

Fisher has similar stuff+ and strikes more people out. 

I'd say, "good thing we don't have to trade him then"

By the way, they traded for Fisher. If anything it's a decent example of Atkins being able to identify extremely useful relievers. Yeah Fisher's stuff was obvious given his K rates in the minors but he also walked the planet at the same time.

They took a guy walking 8 per 9 in AAA and got him down to 2.3 per 9 in the majors in less than a year.

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

I'd say, "good thing we don't have to trade him then"

By the way, they traded for Fisher. If anything it's a decent example of Atkins being able to identify extremely useful relievers. Yeah Fisher's stuff was obvious given his K rates in the minors but he also walked the planet at the same time.

They took a guy walking 8 per 9 in AAA and got him down to 2.3 per 9 in the majors in less than a year.

Great. Buy a rental who strikes people out and find another fisher next year. 

[Stangstag]

19 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

So... pay the much lower price on Bednar then. Obviously. Or Helsley. 

Im not sure why you're so hung up on the "cost" of this trade. We gave up 2 players that are very likely never going to be more than replacement level.

[jmomcc]

2 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Im not sure why you're so hung up on the "cost" of this trade. We gave up 2 players that are very likely never going to be more than replacement level.

They were two of the best prospects traded the entire day. I just read Keith Law's review and he gave us kudos for being willing to trade real prospects. Just us and the padres. Everyone else dipped WAY into their farms. 

[BTS]

8 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Great. Buy a rental who strikes people out and find another fisher next year. 

Good teams don't really operate this way, mostly because there's an opportunity cost to running through a gaggle of shitbags with good STUFF and letting them get nuked until you maybe find one or two good ones. Even the teams we think of as being able to churn out relievers tend to keep the guys they think are good, and spend meaningful money to add to their pen. 

How did the Jays do last year "just finding" a stud reliever?

[John_Havok]

7 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Great. Buy a rental who strikes people out and find another fisher next year. 

This assumes guys like Fisher grow on trees and that we have enough equivalents of Craig Biggio's kids around to dump, and that they're always going to be in a position to dump and there's a team willing to take them. 

I don't have enough faith the Jays development system that they can do this year in and year out yet. 

[jmomcc]

3 minutes ago, BTS said:

Good teams don't really operate this way, mostly because there's an opportunity cost to running through a gaggle of shitbags with good STUFF and letting them get nuked until you maybe find one or two good ones. Even the teams we think of as being able to churn out relievers tend to keep the guys they think are good, and spend meaningful money to add to their pen. 

How did the Jays do last year "just finding" a stud reliever?

Which of the big pitching org teams routinely trade for relievers with long term control paying full price? 

[L54]

Alan Roden is blocked at the major league level currently. Rojas obviously interesting but you just never know. We all thought Ricky T would be contributing to this run two years ago 

we have like 1000 LHH outfielders something had to give 

 

[jmomcc]

4 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

This assumes guys like Fisher grow on trees and that we have enough equivalents of Craig Biggio's kids around to dump, and that they're always going to be in a position to dump and there's a team willing to take them. 

I don't have enough faith the Jays development system that they can do this year in and year out yet. 

That's fair but just buy rentals and then spend in free agency. Because there is also no guarantee that Varland with one year of track record is going to be good next year either. Or the year after. 

[Laika]

A guy like Varland should be more reliable year to year because he has a good fastball.

I love Fisher and Little but they worry me much more in terms of consistency. Little throws so many balls and Fisher has a horrible fastball he has to hide. 

Varland is flawless.

[Stangstag]

11 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Which of the big pitching org teams routinely trade for relievers with long term control paying full price? 

Thats a good point.

[Laika]

The Rays do it all the time lol 

They literally just traded for Griffin Jax. Today. 

[Laika]

The Yankees paid trade market prices for almost all of their relievers lol