Article: Is Bowden Francis' IL Stint Actually a Positive for the Blue Jays?

[Owen Hill]

While the Blue Jays roster has seemingly started to click, enjoying an extended stretch of strong play over the last month and a half, the back-end of the rotation remains a massive question mark.

The team has seen success essentially running a four-man rotation, using the fifth spot as a bullpen day, typically headlined by Eric Lauer. Yet, the spot held by Bowden Francis has been a major momentum killer every fifth day.

In 14 starts this season, Francis has the fifth-worst ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched (6.05). With the same 60-inning minimum applied, he’s giving up a league-worst 2.67 HR/9. Perhaps most importantly, the Blue Jays are just 4-10 in games when Francis starts.

To be frank, Francis had been among the worst-performing starting pitchers in baseball, and it was getting to be past time that the Blue Jays reevaluate his spot in the rotation and his role in the organization going forward.

Should Francis have been afforded the opportunity to continue working through his struggles as a starter in the majors? Would he have benefited from a stint in the minor leagues? Would a breather in a low-leverage relief role have gotten him back on track? Or is this trip to the injured list the best-case scenario for him and the Jays?

The Jays have told us what they think by placing Francis on the injured list with an impingement in his throwing shoulder.

I'm sure Francis does not feel his best. Few players do two and a half months into a season. Still, if his results were better, I think he would more than likely have been afforded the opportunity to keep working in the majors.

A decision like this can often be a difficult one to make, because the Blue Jays need to find a way to do what’s best for the big league team while also finding a way to put Francis in the best position to succeed. With that being said, I don’t think it would have made a lot of sense to keep Francis in the major leagues but relegate him to a role in the bullpen.

There are a couple of reasons for this, but the main one is that if he's healthy, he needs to pitch; whether that’s in the majors, the minors, or at the development complex in Dunedin. The odds of Francis rediscovering his 2024 self would be very low if he rotted in the major league bullpen, waiting for days when the Jays are up or down five runs in the middle innings, to get some run. This scenario also assumes that he would have been physically able to continue pitching.

That brings us to Toronto's reason for sending Francis to the IL. Despite being in dire need of an adjustment since the outset of the season, Francis fell victim to the snowball effect. His starts had been getting steadily worse as the season continued. In three starts in June, he walked more batters (10) than he had innings pitched (8.2) and gave up a ridiculous 73% hard-hit rate. For reference, Shohei Ohtani leads qualified batters with a hard-hit rate of 62.4%.

With all due respect, we were at the point where he was at risk of hitting the IL with whiplash if he kept having to watch so many of his pitches get crushed into play.

Further, on the season, Francis’ stuff is way down. He’s gone from offering two pitches that graded out as above average according to FanGraphs’ Stuff+ (his splitter, 102, and curveball, 107, with his fastball at a respectable 98) to having zero above-average offerings in 2025. His curveball has declined the most, sitting at a 95 Stuff+, while his fastball and splitter are at 94. This could very likely be a result of his injury, and his body not being 100%, which is all the more reason to give him a chance to get right.

My hope is that sending Francis to the IL is going to give him a chance to work on his stuff and figure out what’s changed between last year and this year, whether that’s mechanics, pitch grips, or simply just his physical health. 

I’d expect a trip to the Player Development Complex in Dunedin is in his near future. This is a move we’ve seen the Jays pull off before with struggling big league arms, most notably Alek Manoah in 2023 (although that one came without an IL stint). It would give Francis access to all of the resources a pitcher can dream of and, just as importantly, offer a bit of a mental break from the constant grind of everyday games in which he is failing. 

A trip to the Complex is not what you want for a guy you expected to be a big part of your rotation, but if there’s a chance it gets Francis back to being competitive against big league hitters, it’s a course of action the Jays have to take.

Unfortunately, the issue with the Jays following this path with Francis is quite glaring: The options to fill his role in the rotation may simply be worse than just having him continue to run out every fifth day.

The next obvious option to start games on the big league roster right now is Spencer Turnbull. Yet, he has just 4.1 innings under his belt in 2025, and he's coming off of a very shaky rehab stint (he gave up 14 earned runs in 17.1 innings in the minor leagues before debuting with the Blue Jays earlier this month). I think the Jays would be wise to allow Turnbull to continue to pitch himself into shape before throwing him into the fire of his own rotation spot. 

That seems to be the plan, with Turnbull expected to throw bulk innings in a bullpen game on what would have been Francis' next turn.

It’s a similar story when it comes to the depth, or lack thereof, in Triple A. Jake Bloss, who figured to play a role for the big league team as rotation depth, is on the shelf after having UCL surgery earlier in the season. Easton Lucas, who was one of the first names called upon this year to help the big league rotation, has an ERA over 6.50 in six starts in Triple A. 

From there, the only other name in-house that could potentially replace Francis in the rotation right now is the 24-year-old lefty Adam Macko, but he’s also coming off of an injury and has worked just seven innings at Triple A in 2025. It’s worth noting that Macko and Francis are lined up on the same day, but in my mind, it would be a really aggressive move by the Jays to expect Macko to produce in the big leagues at this point.

With Lauer’s bullpen day already a fixture in the rotation, it doesn’t leave much room for error for the other four starters to have short outings, which makes the idea of having a second bullpen day in the rotation a bit of a scary thought.

The other option for the rotation spot is, of course, a trade, but it’s rare and difficult to make trades six weeks in advance of the trade deadline, before teams have committed to buying or selling.

It's good news, then, that Max Scherzer could be ready to return next week if his rehab appearance goes well today. The Jays will have to exercise caution with the 40-year-old and injury-prone future Hall of Famer, but if Scherzer can pitch like he did when healthy last season, he would make a huge difference for Toronto's rotation.

The Jays are walking a tightrope when it comes to their starting pitching these days. On one hand, it was unacceptable for a team with playoff and World Series aspirations to continue running out one of the worst starters in baseball every fifth day, but the options to replace him may not be much better. The Blue Jays seem to be on the verge of putting together a run, but their lack of starting pitching depth could turn out to be a real Achilles' heel if another starter goes down.

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[Laika]

Yeah it is an objectively positive development for the MLB team, sadly. 

Even if Scherzer is just a 4.50 ERA guy who gets through 5 or 6 innings every night, that would be fine. 

[Mike LeSage]

Naturally, Francis' next potential start would've been against CWS - he was due to turn it around there ;)

[Owen Hill]

7 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah it is an objectively positive development for the MLB team, sadly. 

Even if Scherzer is just a 4.50 ERA guy who gets through 5 or 6 innings every night, that would be fine. 

It's amazing how much a '5 and dive' guy would help this team right now

[John_Havok]

8 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah it is an objectively positive development for the MLB team, sadly. 

Even if Scherzer is just a 4.50 ERA guy who gets through 5 or 6 innings every night, that would be fine. 

Speaking of the walking thumb-corpse, has there been any kind of updates on how he has fared after his Buffalo start in the following days?

[bronson44]

8 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Speaking of the walking thumb-corpse, has there been any kind of updates on how he has fared after his Buffalo start in the following days?

Starting for Buffalo tonight. 1 inning, 2K's so far

[Hill]

12 hours ago, bronson44 said:

Starting for Buffalo tonight. 1 inning, 2K's so far

Finished 4.1 innings with 8 Ks, 75 pitches. I don’t think they’ll waste any more bullets in AAA. He’ll start for the Jays on his next turn as long as he recovers well from last night.