Jake Bloss Injury Is Another Hit to Blue Jays’ Starting Depth

Yep terrible news on Bloss, this is a league wide issue, purely anecdotal but we've been pretty healthy, compared to the rest of the league. - Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt and Francis.  Although not so much in the minors with Ricky Tee and now Bloss going down.

Dodgers have probably lost the most due to pitching injuries.  Matt Sauer, whoever that is, is starting today.

Thanks for the write up - interesting on Fangraphs because I always thought they were overly conservative on their rankings.

They are Hanton.

On 5/15/2025 at 9:03 AM, Leo Morgenstern said:

 

Entering the 2025 season, it felt like every prospect evaluator had a slightly different opinion about Jake Bloss’s potential. That’s not uncommon, especially when it comes to a young pitcher with tremendous skills and equally un-tremendous numbers from his first showing in the major leagues. 

The team at FanGraphs ranked Bloss as the no. 1 prospect in the Blue Jays system and the 59th-overall prospect in baseball. They grouped him among the “fully baked no. 4 starters” on their list, giving him a 50 Future Value (FV) grade. Meanwhile, the Baseball Prospectus staff ranked Bloss third in Toronto’s system and left him off of their Top 101 list entirely. However, their overall write-up of Bloss was more optimistic than the evaluation from FanGraphs. BP gave him a 55 FV and said he looked like a future “no. 3 starter.” 

Baseball America ranked him no. 5 in the organization but called him a “quality” fifth starter. Keith Law of The Athletic agreed with FanGraphs that Bloss could be “a quality fourth starter,” but ranked him no. 6. Scott Mitchell of TSN described him as a future “mid-rotation” starting pitcher but only ranked him fourth among Blue Jays pitching prospects and no. 7 overall.

Did Bloss have a future as a third, fourth, or fifth starter? Was he the Blue Jays’ best pitching prospect? Second, third, or fourth best? It all depended on who you asked. Yet, there was one recurring theme throughout many of his pre-season prospect write-ups: He would contribute meaningful innings to the Blue Jays’ rotation in 2025.

“The rate at which Bloss has developed and, for the most part, succeeded is exciting, and he should entrench himself toward the back of Toronto’s rotation at some point in 2025.” -Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs

“Bloss looks like a quality No. 5 starter ready to contribute in 2025.” -Baseball America

“Bloss is likely to start at Triple-A and be one of the first arms on call when a starter is needed.” -Mitchell, TSN

Of course, there are no guarantees when it comes to prospects. There are no guarantees when it comes to baseball. On Tuesday, the Blue Jays found out that Bloss will not contribute to the big league effort in 2025. The 23-year-old needs surgery to repair his UCL. It’s not yet clear what kind of surgery he needs – it could be traditional Tommy John or an internal brace procedure – so it’s not yet clear how much time he’ll miss. One thing that is clear? His season is done. 

There's no way to sugarcoat this. It's a terrible setback for a promising young pitcher. Bloss is 23 right now. He could be 25 before he starts another game. All that he and the Blue Jays can do now is work toward his healthy return in 2026.

After the Astros selected him in the third round of the 2023 draft, Bloss quickly got to work dominating the minor leagues. Over his first 19 professional games, from the Complex League up to Double A, he pitched to a 2.01 ERA and 3.21 FIP in 80 ⅔ innings. Then, on June 21, less than a year from the day he was drafted, he got the call to Houston to make his MLB debut. 

The excitement was palpable, but it didn’t last long. Bloss exited his first big league start with shoulder discomfort. It wasn't a serious injury, and he was back from the IL in less than three weeks. However, he wasn't the same from that point on. Bloss gave up seven runs in eight innings over two more starts with the 'Stros. After joining the Blue Jays in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, he pitched to a 6.71 ERA in 14 starts at Triple A. His upside was still there, but it no longer jumped off the page. His latest injury isn’t directly related to his last one – it’s in his elbow this time, not his shoulder – but it's hard not to wonder if Bloss has been pitching through pain for a while. Hopefully, surgery and a long, thorough rehab are exactly what he needs to return to full strength. 

In the meantime, the Blue Jays will be down another option for their starting staff. With Max Scherzer on the IL, the Jays have essentially operated with a four-man rotation plus a rotating crew of depth arms since the first week of the season. Bloss could have been a more permanent solution. Indeed, when Scherzer first hit the IL, MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson wrote, "If the Blue Jays get the sense that this is a long-term issue for Scherzer that could stretch beyond a month, that’s when [Bloss] enters the picture.” 

To that point, general manager Ross Atkins suggested the team was more seriously considering calling up Bloss earlier this month. "Bloss is an option right now," the GM told reporters, including Matheson. "I would be comfortable with him coming here tomorrow if that needed to be.” 

While Bloss's numbers at Triple A weren’t great, he pitched his two best games since joining the organization back-to-back at the end of April. The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon reported that Bloss had made "minor delivery tweaks and impressed Toronto’s development staff with a step forward in command.”

That's all moot now. Bloss is no longer an option. 

Scherzer has no clear timeline to return. On the contrary, Matheson recently reported that Scherzer “ran into some mid-back tightness coming out of his last throwing session." It might be weeks or it might be months until Scherzer is healthy again. We just don't know. In the meantime, the Blue Jays will continue to rely on José Ureña and Eric Lauer. That's worked well enough so far, but it's a band-aid solution at best that feels like it could blow up in Toronto's face at any time. Spencer Turnbull offers more upside but also more uncertainty. The same can be said of Alek Manoah, who is tracking to return at some point this summer. Perhaps Ureña and Lauer can hold down the fort until one of Turnbull, Manoah, or Scherzer is ready to take over. That plan could work. It could also prove disastrous. 

There is a world in which Turnbull comes up and looks like the pitcher he was for the Phillies last April. There is a world in which Manoah returns and finally looks like his old self. There is a world in which Scherzer puts his thumb and back injuries behind him and stays healthy for the rest of the year. 

There is also a world in which none of that happens, and the lack of a proper fifth starter is what ultimately sinks this team.

Jake Bloss was no more of a sure thing than any of Toronto's other options. But when a sure thing isn't available, the best way to increase your odds of success is through depth; the more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win the lottery. With Bloss out for the year, the Blue Jays are down a lottery ticket. We don't know if he would have had the winning numbers, but now we'll have to wait even longer to find out. 

 

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Kloffenstein and Macko have both made rehab starts in the low minors so hopefully they can be depth starter options in the not too distant future as well.

I remember watching a Kloffenstein start a few years ago (2021? maybe) and he looked like he was going to be something. 

I wasn't even aware we re-acquired him - looks like he's in A ball?