Blue Jays (Gausman) vs. Rangers (deGrom): 5/26/25, 4:05pm

[Brownie19]

16 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Holy efficiency

He didn't throw a single ball in the first 2 innings.  Only starter to do that this season...

[Brownie19]

On 5/26/2025 at 8:38 PM, jaysblue said:

Yeah interesting point. Makes you wonder.

Jays losing Bassitt as a free agent this offseason and Scherzer only here for one season anyways, so that leaves two vacant spots in the rotation for 2026. That is if you include Francis as still part of the rotation heading into 2026, which I don't think is a guarantee given how he has pitched this season, so it's possible the Jays might have three spots vacant. Also, we'll see how Manoah is when he comes back, so he might occupy one of those spots. 

Last offseason we saw the price for mid-rotation arms via free agency was pretty high in November/December. Unless you played the waiting game (e.g. Pivetta), but that is never a guarantee and not the strategy the Jays should take with a massive void to fill in their rotation. 

Using Hoffman as a starter in 2026 actually makes some sense given the Jays situation and circumstances. Easier to go out and sign another high leverage reliever or promote a closer from within. Maybe Yariel at the end of 2025 looks like he's capable of handling the ninth inning duties where the Jays give him the chance in ST to audition for the role. 

We've seen relievers make the successful transition back to the rotation in their early 30's, like Seth Lugo and Clay Holmes, so definitely not out of the question with Jeff Hoffman if the Jays decide to give him that opportunity. Might be able to squeeze a 3-4 WAR season out of Hoffman if he pitches like Lugo in 2024 or Holmes in 2025. 

 

That's an interesting thought.  The risk with RPers turned starters is often longevity (beyond the risk that they may just suck at it).  Reynold Lopez died after his first year back in a rotation (shoulder injury), Hicks wore down big time after a strong start last year and while his peripherals are fine this year, his ERA is over 6.

Lugo is the best recent example, but he lost 1.4 MPH on the fastball in his 2nd full season in the rotation and his statcast page is noticeably worse so far this year in his 3rd full season in the rotation.  They were skipping his last start before his strained his finger.

There used to be all kinds of "experts" warning against big jumps in innings pitcher per year (I think the number was 50 - if you increase your innings pitched by 50+ from the previous year, your risk of injury and/or reduced effectiveness increased significantly).  Although you don't hear "experts" touting that anymore, so maybe it was BS.

But - starting pitching is hard to find, so there's certainly a risk/reward conversation to be had.  

[Laika]

Clay Holmes is performing well so far. Only 60 innings though. 

Hicks is probably a success story all things considered. It's NOT like he was even an elite reliever, remember. 

Just the remote possibility that you get something close to the Seth Lugo experience makes it worth trying for lots of guys who have the arsenal. 

There are some other guys who are essentially RP to SP conversions but you don't notice as much because of how they broke in or got their chance. I think Ronel Blanco and Zack Littell were essentially just relievers for several years before going back to starting. 

I guess teams are just better these days at figuring out which RP can probably do well as a starter because there are a lot of success stories. 

[max silver]

14 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah interesting point. Makes you wonder.

Jays losing Bassitt as a free agent this offseason and Scherzer only here for one season anyways, so that leaves two vacant spots in the rotation for 2026. That is if you include Francis as still part of the rotation heading into 2026, which I don't think is a guarantee given how he has pitched this season, so it's possible the Jays might have three spots vacant. Also, we'll see how Manoah is when he comes back, so he might occupy one of those spots. 

Last offseason we saw the price for mid-rotation arms via free agency was pretty high in November/December. Unless you played the waiting game (e.g. Pivetta), but that is never a guarantee and not the strategy the Jays should take with a massive void to fill in their rotation. 

Using Hoffman as a starter in 2026 actually makes some sense given the Jays situation and circumstances. Easier to go out and sign another high leverage reliever or promote a closer from within. Maybe Yariel at the end of 2025 looks like he's capable of handling the ninth inning duties where the Jays give him the chance in ST to audition for the role. 

We've seen relievers make the successful transition back to the rotation in their early 30's, like Seth Lugo and Clay Holmes, so definitely not out of the question with Jeff Hoffman if the Jays decide to give him that opportunity. Might be able to squeeze a 3-4 WAR season out of Hoffman if he pitches like Lugo in 2024 or Holmes in 2025. 

 

That's a tricky proposition. It seems that both of the Braves and Orioles were interested in signing Hoffman as a starter, but something that showed up in the imaging of his shoulder led to both teams failing him on a physical and backing out of their respective deals. Both teams were still interested in signing him as a reliever, so it appears as though there is a much higher probability of the shoulder becoming an issue in the future with a starter's workload

[Spanky__99]

I saw Jordan Hicks come out of the pen the other night, I think they might have scrapped the idea of using him as a starter.

[Orgfiller]

22 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

I saw Jordan Hicks come out of the pen the other night, I think they might have scrapped the idea of using him as a starter.

They realized they were blocking Hayden Birdsong for no reason and he looks like a good young arm.

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

They realized they were blocking Hayden Birdsong for no reason and he looks like a good young arm.

Birdsong has that nasty kick change.