Article: AL East Preview 2025: New York Yankees

[Nick John]

Fresh off a World Series appearance, the Yankees enter 2025 as one of the American League powerhouses... though injuries and personnel losses may finally be catching up to them.

2024 was a big year for the New York Yankees as they made it back to the World Series for the first time since 2009. It might be a tough task for the team to make it back there as more than a third of their starting lineup was not brought back. Add to it a rotation that has been dealt several injuries already and it’s looking like an uphill battle to repeat as the champs of the American League. But if there’s any franchise you can’t count out, it’s unfortunately the Yankees.

What’s Changed Since Last Year?
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. After trading for Juan Soto entering the 2024 season, the Yankees were unable to hammer out an extension with the star slugger before free agency. After a long free agency period that saw several teams attempt to sway Soto into signing with them, the left-handed slugger remained in New York. But he chose the Mets over the Yankees.

After missing out on the generational hitter, the Yankees pivoted their free agency pursuit and immediately made moves to improve their pitching, the biggest being a seven-year deal with Max Fried, winning a bidding war with the Boston Red Sox. Fried was projected to slot in as the number two pitcher in the rotation when signed (more on that later). The Yankees weren’t finished either, trading for All-Star closer Devin Williams of Milwaukee to take over the ninth inning. They also signed Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal, and he broke camp with the team.

Offensively, the Yankees swapped out Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo for Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger, respectively. Rizzo and Verdugo were allowed to walk in free agency after mixed seasons in 2024. While Rizzo remains unsigned, Verdugo signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves near the end of spring training.

Goldschmidt signed as a free agent after six years in St. Louis. The first baseman will look to add power to the lineup while providing a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Bellinger came over in a trade with the Chicago Cubs during the winter. Bellinger will be expected to handle center field, allowing Aaron Judge to return to his natural position of right field.

What Remains the Same?
Most of the lineup returns as it will be lead by MVP candidate Aaron Judge. The highly touted Jasson Dominguez also looks to finally play an entire season for the Yankees after getting two short runs the last two seasons. Joining the two outfielders in the lineup includes fellow first-round picks Austin Wells behind the plate and Anthony Volpe at shortstop. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also back for another season with the Yankees, but this time he’s been projected to play second base instead of third base. Third base will instead be handled by Oswaldo Cabrera after DJ LeMahieu injured himself near the start of spring training games. Ben Rice should also see plenty of at-bats as the team waits for Giancarlo Stanton to be healthy enough to play again.

On the pitching side, the Yankees retained most of their rotation... is what I would like to say if they weren’t injured. Gerrit Cole is gone for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil is out with a strained lat, while Clarke Schmidt is dealing with shoulder fatigue. Because of this, the only starters from last year who are ready for the season are Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman. Will Warren, who made six appearances last year for the Yankees, looks like an option to begin the season in the rotation as well.

The bullpen sees some familiar faces return in the way of Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tim Hill. Yerry De Los Santos, who pitched in Scranton last season, looks to join the bullpen and provide assistance.

Where Do The Yankees Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy?
As someone who hates the Yankees, I would like to say this team is a steep drop off from last year’s team and the Yankees will struggle all season. But, since I hate them, I also know it won’t happen, as we’ve all seen the Yankees eventually go on a run and put themselves into the conversation for the playoffs regardless of their roster. Despite that, I feel that as currently constructed, the Yankees will have a hard time winning the division and would need to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

PECOTA currently has the Yankees projected to finish third in the division, nabbing around 85 wins on the season. They have a 23% chance of winning the division and a meager (for them) 51.1% chance of making the playoffs.

FanGraphs projects the Yankees to have a decent enough lineup with all but Ben Rice having a WAR above 1.0. The team is led by Aaron Judge having a projected 7.4 WAR for the season, followed by Anthony Volpe and his 4.0 WAR. Wells, Bellinger and Chisholm are all projected to have at least a 3.0 WAR as well.

On the pitching side, Max Fried leads the way with a 3.4 WAR, while Carlos Rodón is second with a 2.6 WAR. After that, the rotation is rather average as Stroman is projected to have a 1.5 WAR and Warren a 1.2 WAR. For the bullpen, besides Devin Williams and his 1.4 WAR, there isn’t anyone who FanGraphs feels will stand out WAR wise as the next highest is Fernando Cruz and his 0.8 WAR.

The Yankees might be dealing with injuries to quite a few players to open the season, but if there’s anything I’ve learned from watching New York play against other teams, it’s that they always find a way to improve and win. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team begins to shuffle its roster after less than a month if they get off to a slow start. It seems like they could struggle, but never count the Yankees out.

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