Nick John

Following a shorter-than-expected appearance in the 2024 playoffs, do the Orioles have enough firepower on the mound to get over the hump in a loaded AL East? The Baltimore Orioles may be early-season favorites to win the AL East by some projections, but are they really? When you look at their offseason, they really failed to upgrade and improve where it was necessary. The offense will be fine, but can it carry a questionable pitching staff through the entire season? What’s Changed Since Last Year? The biggest change is obviously the loss of ace Corbin Burnes. Acquired from Milwaukee last year, Burnes started 32 games for the Orioles, won 15 games, pitched 194 1/3 innings, made the All-Star team and finished fifth in Cy Young voting. In response, the Orioles didn’t attempt to re-sign him, allowing the right-hander to leave for Arizona. They did, however, bring in two additions to the starting rotation, hoping to replace Burnes with 41-year-old Charlie Morton and rookie Tomoyuki Sugano. For the bullpen, the team will see the return of prized closer Félix Bautista after missing all of 2024. Offensively, the team made moves to help bolster the lineup and bench. Among them were the signings of Tyler O’Neill, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano. O’Neill will slot into right field immediately replacing Anthony Santander, who left to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. With the moved in left field wall at Camden Yards, he’ll be able to provide a lot of power for the Orioles. Sánchez and Laureano look to help with the bench, both being suitable backups for the Orioles team as it’s currently constructed. What Remains The Same? A lot of the lineup remains the same, besides the subtraction of Santander. The outfield sees the return of Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins, while the infield will see Ryan Mountcastle at first base, Jordan Westburg at second base, Jackson Holliday at shortstop and Ramón Urías at third base until Gunnar Henderson is healthy enough to return. Then, the Orioles will have questions as to which infielder will sit. Behind the plate is none other than Adley Rutschman, and projected to be the designated hitter would be Ryan O’Hearn. A good portion of the rotation remained the same as Cade Povich and Dean Kremer return alongside Zach Eflin to try and help keep the rotation steady. The three pitchers are joined by Morton and Sugano to form an average rotation that is worse than last year, at least on paper. Pitchers Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Grayson Rodriguez all returned as well but are currently injured. The bullpen also has some familiarity, as those projected to make the team out of spring training have all been in the organization before this season. Seranthony Domínguez, Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano all return to help provide support to Bautista in the back end of the bullpen. Returning alongside them are left-handed pitchers Gregory Soto and Cionel Pérez. Where Do The Orioles Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy? The Orioles feel like they’re one great starter away from being a favorite in the AL East. Prediction models have them near the top of the division, but their rotation scares me a bit when it comes to saying they’ll win it this year. The team is relying on a 41-year-old to last an entire season, and while Morton has shown he’s a good pitcher in previous campaigns, age will eventually catch up to him. Add to it the question marks surrounding Sugano’s transition from Japan, and it could make for a stressful start of the season while they wait for Rodriguez to return healthy. PECOTA projects the Orioles to currently win the division, hovering around 87 wins on the season. Their percentage to win the division is 33.4%, and their chances of making the playoffs altogether currently sits at 66.2%. FanGraphs projects a balanced lineup for the Orioles, as all of their starters have projected WARs over 1.0, with three starters having WARs higher than 3.0. That undersells the star power in Baltimore, but they have a balanced lineup where everyone should provide at either a league-average or slightly above production. Of course, that could change upon Henderson’s return from injury as well. Pitching wise, it doesn’t seem as confident as Eflin leads the rotation with a projected 2.7 WAR. Kremer and Morton follow behind him with 1.3 and 1.2 WARs respectively while Sugano and Povich both have projected WARs under 1.0. The bullpen is interesting. Bautista in his first season back is projected to have a 1.6 WAR, which is the highest of all their relievers. But after that, the trio of Domínguez, Akin and Cano have projected WARs of 0.6, 0.9 and 0.6 respectively. The three combined would help the pitching staff a lot, but eventually, they’ll get burnt out if used too often. The Orioles are an interesting team. They could be dangerous in the AL East, but I feel they still need a pitcher or two to really do some damage. As they’re currently constructed, I wouldn’t be surprised if they stay in contention for most of the season, but right now, I have to disagree with projections that have them as favorites. I just don’t think their pitching can keep up all season. If the Orioles manage to make a trade to bring in a top-of-the-rotation arm, their outlook could appear a whole lot rosier. View full article

Fresh off a World Series appearance, the Yankees enter 2025 as one of the American League powerhouses... though injuries and personnel losses may finally be catching up to them. 2024 was a big year for the New York Yankees as they made it back to the World Series for the first time since 2009. It might be a tough task for the team to make it back there as more than a third of their starting lineup was not brought back. Add to it a rotation that has been dealt several injuries already and it’s looking like an uphill battle to repeat as the champs of the American League. But if there’s any franchise you can’t count out, it’s unfortunately the Yankees. What’s Changed Since Last Year? Let’s start with the elephant in the room. After trading for Juan Soto entering the 2024 season, the Yankees were unable to hammer out an extension with the star slugger before free agency. After a long free agency period that saw several teams attempt to sway Soto into signing with them, the left-handed slugger remained in New York. But he chose the Mets over the Yankees. After missing out on the generational hitter, the Yankees pivoted their free agency pursuit and immediately made moves to improve their pitching, the biggest being a seven-year deal with Max Fried, winning a bidding war with the Boston Red Sox. Fried was projected to slot in as the number two pitcher in the rotation when signed (more on that later). The Yankees weren’t finished either, trading for All-Star closer Devin Williams of Milwaukee to take over the ninth inning. They also signed Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal, and he broke camp with the team. Offensively, the Yankees swapped out Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo for Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger, respectively. Rizzo and Verdugo were allowed to walk in free agency after mixed seasons in 2024. While Rizzo remains unsigned, Verdugo signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves near the end of spring training. Goldschmidt signed as a free agent after six years in St. Louis. The first baseman will look to add power to the lineup while providing a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Bellinger came over in a trade with the Chicago Cubs during the winter. Bellinger will be expected to handle center field, allowing Aaron Judge to return to his natural position of right field. What Remains the Same? Most of the lineup returns as it will be lead by MVP candidate Aaron Judge. The highly touted Jasson Dominguez also looks to finally play an entire season for the Yankees after getting two short runs the last two seasons. Joining the two outfielders in the lineup includes fellow first-round picks Austin Wells behind the plate and Anthony Volpe at shortstop. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also back for another season with the Yankees, but this time he’s been projected to play second base instead of third base. Third base will instead be handled by Oswaldo Cabrera after DJ LeMahieu injured himself near the start of spring training games. Ben Rice should also see plenty of at-bats as the team waits for Giancarlo Stanton to be healthy enough to play again. On the pitching side, the Yankees retained most of their rotation... is what I would like to say if they weren’t injured. Gerrit Cole is gone for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil is out with a strained lat, while Clarke Schmidt is dealing with shoulder fatigue. Because of this, the only starters from last year who are ready for the season are Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman. Will Warren, who made six appearances last year for the Yankees, looks like an option to begin the season in the rotation as well. The bullpen sees some familiar faces return in the way of Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tim Hill. Yerry De Los Santos, who pitched in Scranton last season, looks to join the bullpen and provide assistance. Where Do The Yankees Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy? As someone who hates the Yankees, I would like to say this team is a steep drop off from last year’s team and the Yankees will struggle all season. But, since I hate them, I also know it won’t happen, as we’ve all seen the Yankees eventually go on a run and put themselves into the conversation for the playoffs regardless of their roster. Despite that, I feel that as currently constructed, the Yankees will have a hard time winning the division and would need to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. PECOTA currently has the Yankees projected to finish third in the division, nabbing around 85 wins on the season. They have a 23% chance of winning the division and a meager (for them) 51.1% chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs projects the Yankees to have a decent enough lineup with all but Ben Rice having a WAR above 1.0. The team is led by Aaron Judge having a projected 7.4 WAR for the season, followed by Anthony Volpe and his 4.0 WAR. Wells, Bellinger and Chisholm are all projected to have at least a 3.0 WAR as well. On the pitching side, Max Fried leads the way with a 3.4 WAR, while Carlos Rodón is second with a 2.6 WAR. After that, the rotation is rather average as Stroman is projected to have a 1.5 WAR and Warren a 1.2 WAR. For the bullpen, besides Devin Williams and his 1.4 WAR, there isn’t anyone who FanGraphs feels will stand out WAR wise as the next highest is Fernando Cruz and his 0.8 WAR. The Yankees might be dealing with injuries to quite a few players to open the season, but if there’s anything I’ve learned from watching New York play against other teams, it’s that they always find a way to improve and win. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team begins to shuffle its roster after less than a month if they get off to a slow start. It seems like they could struggle, but never count the Yankees out. View full article

The Red Sox made some big additions this offseason. Are they now contenders for the division title? It’s been a few years since the Red Sox felt like serious contenders entering a season, but after a series of major offseason moves, it feels like they might finally be viewed as a contender once more. In this series, we'll go over each member of the AL East. We’re going to start with the Red Sox, who have emerged as legitimate contenders to take the division both because of their own steps forward and because of bad injury news in New York. What’s Changed Since Last Year? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that a lot has changed for the Red Sox since the World Series ended. Their biggest move of the offseason was the acquisition of legitimate ace Garrett Crochet from the White Sox. The trade saw top prospects Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, and Chase Meidroth, along with right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez, all sent to the Chicago White Sox. It was a haul for the White Sox, but the Red Sox pulled the trigger and got their ace. Crochet wasn’t the only addition to the Boston rotation. The team signed Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21-million deal to help anchor the rotation. Joining them was injured left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who will miss at least the first half of this season as he recovers from an internal brace procedure. Sandoval agreed to a two-year deal in hopes of being healthy enough to pitch in Boston by August. The bullpen looks different, as closer Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have left for the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers, respectively. Replacing them are the likes of Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson, along with the returns of Garrett Whitlock and Liam Hendriks from injuries. It remains to be seen whether Chapman and Wilson can fill the big shoes left by Jansen and Martin. The Red Sox also traded a pitching prospect to the Yankees in exchange for glove-first catcher Carlos Narváez, who will back up starter Connor Wong. The biggest move, however, is the signing of Alex Bregman. Bregman surprised many when he agreed to a three-year, $120-million deal (replete with two opt-outs and large deferrals) just days before the scheduled report date. The right-handed bat will immediately pay dividends, and he will provide a veteran presence and voice throughout the clubhouse. What Remains The Same? Tyler O'Neill, who signed in Baltimore, is the only 2024 starter who isn't returning. On Sunday, the team announced that consensus top-10 prospect Kristian Campbell will break camp with the club, meaning he's likely the everyday second baseman. Other than that, the lineup should look very similar. Bregman's signing looks like it will push Rafael Devers to designated hitter and force former DH Masataka Yoshida into a smaller role. Jarren Duran looks to lead off once again while the heart of the order appears to be Devers, Bregman, Triston Casas, and Trevor Story. The bottom half will feature Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu, Campbell, Ceddanne Rafaela (who will return to center field), and Wong. The team’s bench is mostly the same, as Rob Refsnyder returns for his fourth season in Boston while Romy González, David Hamilton, and Nick Sogard look to provide support from utility roles. Nick Pivetta departed in free agency, but the rest of the 2024 rotation is returning. Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford are back, and Lucas Giolito has returned from Tommy John surgery. Joining them on the pitching side of things will bullpen arms Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell, Justin Slaten, Zack Kelly, and Greg Wiessert. The last two look to battle for a spot in the bullpen. Where Do The Red Sox Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy? I'm a Red Sox fan, so this will sound a bit biased, but I believe the Red Sox have what it takes to be in contention for the division title up until the end of the season. As currently constructed, I think they're the best team in the AL East once you take injury situations into consideration. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system doesn’t think as highly of them as I do. With one week until the season officially begins, PECOTA gives the Red Sox just a 6.3% chance of winning the division this season and only a 16.6% chance of clinching a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs is just as harsh, seeing Crochet lead the team with 4.5 WAR. They also predict that Duran’s WAR will drop all the way from 6.7 in 2024 to 3.4 in 2025. Offensively, the Red Sox are projected to have three starters with a WAR higher than 3.0, with Bregman leading the way at 3.8 WAR. With the East open due to injuries and possible regression from the competition, it could be the best chance for the Red Sox to capture the division title since 2018. They have an improved roster, morale is high, and the starting rotation features enviable depth. Calling them the favorites in the division shouldn't be a stretch, even if PECOTA disagrees. View full article

The Tampa Bay Rays finished one game shy of .500 (and six ahead of the Blue Jays) in 2024, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Are they due for a bounce back in 2025? The Tampa Bay Rays had a tough offseason, though it was more due to Hurricane Milton destroying Tropicana Field. As the Trop is under construction to be playable in 2026, the Rays will instead play at the New York Yankees’ spring training park (George M. Steinbrenner Field) un 2025. The Rays look to put this event behind them and make a push back into the playoffs after missing it in 2024. What’s Changed Since Last Year? For the Rays, not much has really changed. Besides being forced to play at a spring training ballpark in 2025, most of their roster has remained the same from last season. Their big moves involved the free agent signings of Danny Jansen to be their starting catcher and Ha-Seong Kim to play shortstop, though the latter won’t be back until May or June as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. On the pitching side, the Rays did what they’re well known for: getting players who aren’t big names. They acquired Mason Englert from the Detroit Tigers for minor league player Drew Sommers back in February. Englert pitched in 12 games for Detroit last season, throwing 21 2/3 innings. The other moves the Rays made for their pitching staff was purchasing former New York Mets’ top prospect Mike Vasil from the Philadelphia Phillies who drafted him in the Rule 5 draft and making another trade with the Tigers for Alex Faedo. They also selected Nate Lavender from the Mets during the Rule 5 draft. Departing from the team is Jeffrey Springs, who was traded to the Athletics for a package of Joe Boyle and minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters. The bullpen did see some losses this offseason as Colin Poche and Jason Adam left the team to sign with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres respectively. Phil Maton also signed with the St. Louis Cardinals. Probably the biggest difference in the team will be the fact that Shane McClanahan will be returning from his second Tommy John surgery, which he had in August 2023. McClanahan is an ace and will help shape the top of the Rays’ rotation now that he is healthy again. What Remains The Same? You could joke about it, but almost everything. The rotation returns most of its pieces as Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen will comprise the heart of the group. With the return of McClanahan, there’s a good chance the Rays begin the season with a six-man rotation to help with his load management. The offense itself isn’t changed much either, as the team will still be carried by veterans Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe on the right side of the infield while Junior Caminero looks to play well in his first full season in the major leagues. The outfield will see the return of Josh Lowe, who can flash both speed and power, while Danny Jansen will join everyone as the new starting catcher. The bottom half of the lineup will be filled with young guys as Jonathan Aranda hopes to crack the starting lineup and Christopher Morel (who was acquired at the deadline for Isaac Paredes) will shift to left field. Jonny DeLuca will man center field while Taylor Walls returns to handle the duties at shortstop. Even the bench hasn’t changed much as Curtis Mead, Richie Palacios and José Caballero will reprise their roles from last season. Joining them is Ben Rortvedt, who is likely to lose his starting position at catcher to Jansen. The bullpen sees the return of several pieces as Pete Fairbanks, Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger, Kevin Kelly and Manuel Rodríguez are all back for another go-round. And while relievers can be volatile and have up and down seasons, each of them are coming off of respectable campaigns out of the bullpen in Tampa Bay. The Rays know how to use relievers and how to get the most out of them. That trait will continue into 2025 as they look to use a variety of relievers to help them win important ball games. Where Do The Rays Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy? As a Blue Jays writer, I would like to say that the Rays don’t have much of a chance. But if there’s anything I know about the Rays, it’s that you can never count them out. Especially when you think you can. Last season was a bit different as the Rays dealt with injuries to their rotation from the start of the season, with only three starters making more than 20 starts and none of them handling more than 29. That’ll likely change this year, and the Rays will be more dangerous than they appeared in 2024. PECOTA projects them to barely finish above .500 with roughly 82 wins and a fourth-place finish in the division. Overall, they have just under a 10% chance of winning the division and have a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs. Personally, I feel those numbers are a bit low for the Rays. FanGraphs projects well for the Rays, as their lineup appears to be rather deep (at least in terms of WAR). Out of the projected starters, only Taylor Walls is projected to have less than a 1.5 WAR. The lineup sees three starters being projected with a WAR over 3.0 as Díaz, Lowe and Caminero lead the way (Caminero is projected to lead the offense with 3.4 WAR). Even the Rays’ bench seems to be well off, as both Rortvedt and Caballero are projected to eclipse 1.0 WAR in part-time duty. From the pitching side of things, none of the Rays starters are projected to have a WAR less than 1.2, and McClanahan is projected to lead the rotation with a 3.0 WAR. The Rays may not have many stars on their team, but they make up for it with their depth of quality major league players. This team is built for the long grind of a 162-game season that includes injuries and slumps. However, come the playoffs, that might not be enough to overcome other teams who have brought in stars to help lead the way. View full article

Yankees AL East preview coming soon! How do you all think the Bronx Bombers will perform in 2025?