What Do 0.1% Playoff Odds Look Like?

According to numbers on FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, the Blue Jays' playoff odds are down to 0.1%. But what does that really mean?

Practically speaking, it means the Jays are toast. Technically speaking, it means that if you simulated the next five days 1,000 times, Toronto would only make the postseason in one of those simulations. 

In the real world, the next five days will only play out once. But who's to say this isn't the one universe out of 1,000 in which the Blue Jays make a miraculous comeback? Here's what would have to happen for the Jays to pull that off.

The Blue Jays Win Out

This is a non-negotiable. The Blue Jays have to go 5-0 against the Orioles and the Reds if they want any chance to play in October. If they lose even one of their remaining five games, the best they can finish with is an 81-81 record. That guarantees they would finish behind the Guardians (who already have 82 wins) and the White Sox (who already have 81 wins and hold the tiebreaker over Toronto). No matter which of those teams wins the AL Central in this scenario, the other would finish ahead of the Jays in the Wild Card race.

So, one more loss, and the Blue Jays are out. Is this a bad time to mention that they haven't won five games in a row all year?

The White Sox Go 0-5 OR the Guardians go 0-5

If the White Sox win even one more game, there's nothing the Blue Jays can do to catch them. The same goes for the Guardians. The good news for Toronto is that one of those clubs gets to win the AL Central. So, only one of them needs to lose all of their remaining games in this hypothetical. Still, that's a lot to hope for. 

Let's just say every team has a 50-50 chance of winning every game from here on out. The chances of a team winning (or losing) all of its remaining games are 3.125%. That means the chances of one specific team (i.e., the Blue Jays) going 5-0 and one of two specific teams (i.e., the White Sox or Guardians) going 0-5 are less than 0.2%. And there are still two more teams to consider.

The Rangers OR the Astros Lose at Least Two More Games

The Rangers and Astros are tied at 78-79 – that's one game ahead of the Blue Jays. So, even if the Blue Jays beat the one-in-500 odds and finish ahead of the White Sox and/or Guardians, they also have to finish ahead of the Rangers and/or Astros.  

One of those Texas clubs can win the AL West. The other (whichever one that might be) is a threat to Toronto. 

Unfortunately, the Rangers and the Astros would both hold the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays. The Jays lost their season series with the Rangers. As for the Astros, they tied with the Jays in the season series, and in this hypothetical scenario, they would also have the same intra-division record as the Jays (which is the next tiebreaker). However, the Astros would ultimately beat the Jays thanks to tiebreaker number three: intra-league record. 

All that to say, at least one of the Rangers or Astros cannot reach 82 wins. If both of them hit that number, it's over for the Blue Jays.

Once again, if we presume that every team has 50-50 odds in all remaining games, the odds of any team losing at least two out of five are pretty high. The odds that one of two teams will lose at least two out of five games are even higher. Still, it's no guarantee, and that means we have to take Toronto's one-in-500 odds and reduce them even further. 

Then, of course, we have to remember that the games aren't coin flips. They're real baseball games, and one of them is starting right now. The Blue Jays' playoff odds are long, but they haven't disappeared. So, all we can do now is turn on the game and hope for the best.

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