Article: Projections Show Why the Blue Jays Rotation Holds Promise

[Bob Ritchie]

In 2024, Toronto’s rotation was in the middle of the pack. ZiPS offers hope for better starting pitching in 2025.

Let's return to the halcyon days of 2023, when the Blue Jays starting rotation performed very well. The group posted a 3.85 ERA and a 12.6 fWAR in 895 innings, which ranked second, fourth, and fourth among American League teams, respectively. However, the 2024 staff did not perform as well, as evidenced by their 3.95 ERA (which ranked ninth), 10.6 fWAR (also ninth), and 862 innings pitched (sixth). Although their 3.95 ERA was similar to 2023's 3.85 mark, it is misleading because the offensive environment changed. In 2023, the Toronto rotation ran a 91 ERA-, meaning it was 9% better than league average; in 2024, it was 99, just 1% better. So how will Blue Jay starters perform in 2025? I will use ZiPS DC projections to answer that question,  focusing on two critical aspects of starting rotations: quality and depth.

Model Talk 

Quote

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

Many attribute the quote above to George E. P. Box, a British mathematician. It underscores the idea that while no model can perfectly predict the future, some can provide valuable insights. This idea is particularly relevant to our discussion. The ZiPS DC model is a widely respected and comprehensive forecasting model that considers various performance metrics and historical data to project future player performance.

Quality
Baseball fans are accustomed to arguing about whether a pitcher should be categorized as a number one starter, number two starter, or even lower. The answer depends on the definition of each role. I address the issue by applying a metric-based framework. For a given metric, I define a number one starter as one whose metric (ERA, for example) is in the top 20% of starters. A number two is a starter who posted an ERA that fell into the next 20% of starters, and so on. I used ERA as my metric of choice for the analysis to follow. Table 1 shows the percentile breakpoints/thresholds for 2023 starters, and Table 2 concerns 2024. In 2023, five of Toronto's starters were either a one or a two, which explains, in part, why the Blue Jays' 2023 starter group had the second-lowest ERA among AL teams. 

Last season, according to this model, a starter with an ERA of 3.36 or lower was a number one. Between 3.36 and 3.77 made a pitcher a number two. A number five had an ERA higher than 4.99. Table 2 reflects the slots for Toronto's 2024 pitchers. Only Bowden Francis qualified as a number one. The Blue Jays had one number two (José Berríos), two number threes (Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt), and two number fours (Yusei Kikuchi and Yariel Rodríguez). Toronto's 2024 starter crew had less concentration in one and two slots than the prior season and, accordingly, posted an inferior overall ERA.

2025 Projection
The ZiPS DC forecast predicts that Blue Jay starters will outperform the 2024 group. Table 3 provides the details. The projected ERA distribution is narrow. Toronto's fifth-best ERA (3.94) is just 0.11 points away from Tampa's second-lowest ERA (3.83) and 0.12 points lower than Kansas City's tenth-best ERA (4.06). The key takeaway is that the ZiPS DC model projects the Blue Jays' starting rotation to perform better. Let's delve into the specifics.

Table 4 shows the projected ERAs of Toronto's starters and how those pitchers slot into the starter framework. The ZiPS DC forecast estimates better ERA seasons than 2024 for Gausman, Max Scherzer (3.61 versus 3.95), and Rodríguez. According to the projection, Alex Manoah (3.70 in 2024), Berríos and Francis should see higher ERAs than they produced last season.

In summary, the ZiPS DC model projects the Blue Jays' starting rotation (on a relative basis) to outperform last season's crew and potentially rank among the top five American League rotations in 2025. This projection should fuel excitement among Blue Jays fans about the potential strength of Toronto's starters and the team's overall performance in the upcoming season.

Depth
Last season, MLB teams used an average of 13 different starters. Thus, the average team required another eight starters in addition to the five on the Opening Day roster. Accordingly, some MLB observers will determine how good the depth of a team's 2025 starting rotation will be by the quality of starters six through 13. However, the need for eight additional starters (13 less the top five) is somewhat misleading for three reasons: the distribution of starts, the average performance level from starters outside of the top five, and opener usage.

The Distribution of Starts
While the average MLB team will likely use approximately 13 starters in 2025, the distribution of starts is not even. Consider Table 5. In 2024, on average, five pitchers made 76% of all starts, and nine appeared in 94%. Therefore, four pitchers covered the other 6% (approximately 10 games). Suppose the quality of a pitcher decreases as one reaches further down into the organization. Therefore, a team will mitigate the reduced performance level of starters six through 13 because those pitchers will not start as many games as the top five, which is the superior starter group. I will address performance levels in the next section.

Concerning the 2024 Blue Jays, five hurlers made 85% of the starts, and nine racked up 99% of the outings. In total, the Blue Jays used ten starters last season. Do you remember Paolo Espino and his 9.00 ERA?

Performance Levels
The second reason the average number of starters figures can be misleading is that performance levels are different between starter groups. Table 6 shows ERA figures for various groups. In 2024, the MLB average starter ERA was 4.15. However, the average ERA for the top five was 4.02, 4.68 for the next four, and 4.71 for the other starters. Concerning playoff teams, the numbers are 3.72, 4.68, and 5.27, respectively. Accordingly, a team would be satisfied if starters six through nine and 10 to 13 produced ERAs lower than 4.68 and 4.71, respectively. Therefore, the ERA expected from starters six to 13 should be higher than the average MLB starter ERA. Hence, it is okay if starters outside the top five are inferior.

The ERA of the top five Blue Jays starters was slightly higher than the MLB average for a top five (4.07 versus 4.02). Still, the other four starters generated a 3.00 ERA, MLB's second-lowest in the six to nine groupings. Those pitchers were Francis (2.92), Manoah (3.70), Ryan Burr (3.38) and Trevor Richards (0.00).

Opener Usage
Teams can minimize the number of starters called up from the minors by using openers and swingmen such as Rodríguez. Therefore, having 13 pitchers start games does not necessarily mean that a ball club must look deeply into its minor league teams. A ballclub may have spot starters in the bullpen. Given the reasons noted above, a team's task of starting 13 different pitchers is not as daunting as it may seem. Onto the final projection!

2025 Starter Groups' Projection
The reader can find Toronto's ZiPS DC projection here. In Table 7, I arranged Blue Jays' starters into the Top Five, Next Four, and Top Nine. The 2025 forecast should encourage Blue Jays fans. According to the ZiPS DC model, Toronto's Top Five slots in as the equivalent of a number two starter, the Next Four as a number three, and the Top Nine as a number two. (Toronto is projected only to need nine starters this season).

Given the ZiPS DC projections, the 2025 Blue Jays should have a deep, high-quality starting rotation.

The Last Word
Toronto's 2024 starting rotation did not perform as well as the 2023 crew. However, ZiPS forecasts that the Blue Jays' 2025 starter group may rank in the top five of American League teams. Furthermore, Toronto's pitching depth should be a competitive advantage. Overall, the Blue Jays' starting rotation holds promise for the upcoming season.

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[ian]

Lots to absorb there, very noce write-up, rotation has to be one of the top of the league staffs, is a must to have any success. A bp that can strand inherited runners will make a big difference as well. Would it be safe to say the Jays right now 6-9 depth might look like, Rodriguez, Bloss, Manoah, Macko, could see Burr as an opener or Lauer added early too  if injuries an issue to i guess. Really might not be that far from having 13 options.

[Bob Ritchie]

Yes, the ZiPS DC model shows Rodriguez, Bloss, Manoah and Macko as starters 6 through 9.

Unfortunately, Shi Davidi reported today that "Canadian lefty prospect Adam Macko has a meniscus tear in his left knee, said Blue Jays manager John Schneider. Macko felt something during a weekend side and has an appointment Wednesday. He's looking at a probable surgery, added Schneider."

Certainly, Burr and Lauer are options.

[ian]

Yeah too bad for him, hopefully he gets a best case report and is back on a June-July time frame, rather than a August-September one. Wouldn't mind seeing Yarbrough added now for early season depth if Rodriguez has part time starter role to give Scherzer an extra day between starts when no off in schedule to do it. Yarbrough could fill that role if an injury moves Rodriguez into rotation full time.