Article: Can the Blue Jays Steal More Bases in 2025?

[Peter Snow]

It would be difficult not to.

Major League Baseball’s 2023 rule changes were intended, in part, to encourage base stealing. Although stolen base numbers have varied widely over the history of baseball, there is a current nostalgia for the wild days of Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, and Tim Raines. There is also value in stealing bases and taking extra bases on hits. The larger bases and limits on pickoffs created a league-wide increase in steals, from 2,487 in 2022 to 3,503 in 2023 and 3,617 in 2025. Some teams have been more effective at taking advantage of the rules. The Jays did see a spike in total stolen bases in 2023, when they swiped 99 after only getting 67 the year before, but 2024 saw them regress to 72. They’ve ranked 22nd and 27th overall in the past two years. They had been as high as 12th in 2021. 

According to FanGraphs, over the last two seasons combined, the Blue Jays ranked been second last in Baserunning runs at -23 (ahead of the Angels with -26 and Yankees with -29). This all in one stat captures stolen bases, advances, and holds as a general measure of player’s value on the base paths. Over the same period, George Springer’s 4.0 runs have led the team, while Alejandro Kirk (-10.1) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-9.7) have dragged far behind all other Blue Jays.

There are several possible explanations Toronto’s failures in this department, with the most obvious being personnel. The ’21 Jays were led by Bo Bichette with 25 stolen bases, Marcus Semien at 15, and Teoscar Hernández at 12. With the latter two leaving town and Bichette regressing significantly, the team leaderboard changed over the following 3 years. The Jays were also more successful than average at stealing in 2021 (80.2% to 76.7%), but this was also true in 2024 (81.8% to 77.7%). Heading into 2025, the possibility of change is presenting itself. 

It’s no secret that George Springer has declined at the plate. He has, however, continued to be a net positive on the bases. In 2024, he led the team with 3.5 baserunning runs. His sprint speed placed seventh on the team last year, behind players that were in some cases as many as six years younger than him. He is still pretty fast and still knows how to pick his spots. Sixteen stolen bases is nice, but is not high-end thievery. Being a year older is not going to help, but if he remains a smart baserunner, he should be near the top of the team leaderboard again. 

Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement were the only other everyday players who graded out as above average on the bases in 2024. After back-to-back seasons of 16 steals, Varsho declined to 10. At 28 years old, there is no reason why he couldn’t see that number increase. Clement is easy to overlook, but with a spring speed of 28.4 feet per second, his 12 stolen bases ranked second on the team.

The drop-off in Bo Bichette’s production seems to be tied to a decrease in overall attempts. His percentage of attempts to opportunities has dropped from a high of 2.9% in 2021 to 0.7% in 2023, then rose slightly to 1.6% in 2024. He’s remained aggressive at taking extra bases, and his sprint speed has only declined slightly over the past four seasons.  

The addition of Andrés Giménez is an immediate boost to the team’s efforts on the bath paths. As my colleague Owen Hill wisely pointed out, Giménez could be the first Blue Jay to steal 30 bases since José Reyes way back in 2014. I won’t repeat Owen’s arguments, except to say that adding 30 on top of the Blue Jays total would be a huge boost to this team. 

If the Jays are going to increase their stolen base numbers, it will probably mean some of their younger players have been getting opportunities. Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase, and Joey Loperfido are all fast players who have the potential to be base-stealing threats if they get playing time. Berroa stole six bases last year despite reaching base just eight times, but he’d have to find consistent at-bats and improve his offensive stats if he wants to contribute to this team. Clase has the fifth-fastest sprint speed in baseball, and Berroa and Loperfido are both in the top 100. Speed isn’t everything, but it certainly helps. 

Improving the running game would give the Jays a small boost that would help offset their offensive shortcomings. The addition of Giménez, and more playing time for the young players should increase the numbers without any special effort. The team has been willing to run in the past, and if they have another season of low offensive output, they could benefit from smart baserunning. 

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[Brownie19]

I'd love to see us add speed and stolen bases to this team.  Love what it brings to the team and from an entertainment perspective.

If we end up starting Clement at 3rd this year, I'll at least be happy with the speed he brings to the lineup on a daily basis.

[Spanky99]

Quick answer, yes.

[Terminator]

One of the annoying things about this team is that we are somehow the best defensive team but also the worst (or close to it) base running team.

Very difficult to pull that off it would seem.

Hopefully we are better this year.

[BatFlip]

23 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'd love to see us add speed and stolen bases to this team.  Love what it brings to the team and from an entertainment perspective.

If we end up starting Clement at 3rd this year, I'll at least be happy with the speed he brings to the lineup on a daily basis.

It's time for Vladdy to join the 40-40 club!

[wilko]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

One of the annoying things about this team is that we are somehow the best defensive team but also the worst (or close to it) base running team.

Very difficult to pull that off it would seem.

Hopefully we are better this year.

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

One of the annoying things about this team is that we are somehow the best defensive team but also the worst (or close to it) base running team.

Very difficult to pull that off it would seem.

Hopefully we are better this year.

The Kirk effect 

[Spanky99]

On 1/22/2025 at 6:47 PM, Laika said:

The Kirk effect 

And Vlad... ☠️