Article: What if the Blue Jays Just Pay Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

[Peter Snow]

If not Vladdy, then who?

Let's start by addressing the elephant in the room: It’s possible that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is tired of the Blue Jays organization and wants to get out of town. He might be longing for warmer weather, less income tax, or a different clubhouse vibe. We can’t know what’s in his heart and mind as he approaches free agency. Someday, Guerrero may reveal his true feelings on a podcast somewhere. For now, we can only speculate. Today our job is to ask the question: What if the Jays just pay him what he wants?

Guerrero's $28.5-million contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility was just announced. It’s a large number for an arb-eligible player and an underpayment based on his 2024 season. There is speculation that he is looking for north of $500 million in his next contract. Given the current state of free agent contracts, that seems close to me. Barring a catastrophe, there will be significant money available to him next offseason, and the Jays should be in the running.

Let’s start with the statistical argument. We know Guerrero has had outstanding seasons, including 2024, when he was near the top of the league at the plate. This past year was phenomenal: his 165 wRC+ made him the sixth-best hitter in baseball. It wasn’t a mirage, either, as his underlying numbers all rebounded from a below average 2023. He was hitting the ball much harder, and more like he did during his superlative 2021 campaign. Steamer really likes him going forward, to the tune of a predicted 5.1 fWAR and 155 wRC+ in 2025. In three of the past four seasons, Guerrero has put up more than 3.0 fWAR and been among the best hitters in baseball. If we view that year as an aberration, and I believe it was, then we are talking about a homegrown, soon-to-be 26-year-old offensive cornerstone. While his defence is a significant drag on his overall value, it’d be hard to find anyone particularly worried about that. If he can rake, then he will be paid.

Aging curves are tricky and projections are educated guesses. The fact that Guerrero is just 26 years old certainly helps his case. Even a seven- or eight-year contract will take him into to his mid-30s. On the other hand, even a 10-year contract may not contain too many decline years. Of course, considering the time value of money, it doesn't make much sense to worry about the last few years of such a big contract. Players on megadeals usually accrue extra value at the beginning of their deals, with the last few factored in as the cost of doing business. Guerrero is also an extremely popular player with a fun personality. Sports are entertainment, and baseball in Canada is better with him in it.

Another question for the front office is, “If not Vladdy, then who?” It’s become abundantly clear that superstar free agents aren’t lining up to come to Toronto. Some reasons are outside the team’s control. Despite the obscene wealth of Rogers, they were only going to offer so much money to Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, and it wouldn't have been enough to overcome the other obstacles. Teams like the Yankees can console themselves that they spent the money they offered Soto on other valuable pieces to try to replace his value, while the Jays haven't signed players with that much value. Their best recent acquisition came through trade. If you don’t give that money to Vlad, then the team is probably just keeping it in the vault.

Every season, it looks less and less likely that a prospect will ascend to take Guerrero's place. Even if they did, wouldn’t you rather have that player and Guerrero? Even if the Jays were to enter a rebuild, at 26, Guerrero is still young enough to be part of the next great team, but that might be the point where he loses interest in coming back. No one would blame him for leaving Toronto for a contender if the team decides to rebuild or retool. In fact, the bigger question is "What is the team’s argument that he should stay?" This season will greatly affect that argument, but Guerrero knows this organization as well as anyone. If there are few signs of growth or improvement, he may well want to go elsewhere. He is aware of the state of the farm system, and there are reports that other free agents have seen the prospect pool as a reason to pass on Toronto. The team will have to work hard to convince Guerrero it’s worth staying.

The Blue Jays need Guerrero. If he leaves and they enter a significant rebuild, even the most optimistic fans may give up on the team. An extension, or a free agent signing would go a long way to maintaining some hope for the short term of this team. It would also keep the door open for Guerrero to continue building his legacy here in Toronto.

View full article

[Mike LeSage]

Yes! He wants $500mill? Okay, pay it.

We'll spend the rest of his career trying to replace him if they let him walk.

[L54]

Nothing matters now until Sasaki signs 

imagine signing Sasaki 

Trading Vlad for Vientos 

Signing Bregman 

Improved outlook for 2025 and beyond, improved infield defense and depth, without a 500M commitment with lots of cash coming off the books in the next two seasons 

[Jays24]

7 minutes ago, L54 said:

Nothing matters now until Sasaki signs 

imagine signing Sasaki 

Trading Vlad for Vientos 

Signing Bregman 

Improved outlook for 2025 and beyond, improved infield defense and depth, without a 500M commitment with lots of cash coming off the books in the next two seasons 

This alternative could still give us enough to sign Santandar since we're already rumored to be close on an offer. Bregman's salary would just be filling up Vlad's current slot.  

[L54]

46 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This alternative could still give us enough to sign Santandar since we're already rumored to be close on an offer. Bregman's salary would just be filling up Vlad's current slot.  

True there would be room for more