Article: Sasaki Sweepstakes Down to Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Padres

[Owen Hill]

That's right, the Toronto Blue Jays. From Canada.

On Monday morning, as news of Roki Sasaki’s visit to Toronto made its way through the internet, Davy Andrews wrote for this site that Blue Jays fans should give themselves permission to set their excitement meters no higher than 10%. One day later, nobody would be able to blame you if you let your excitement climb even higher. On Monday night, Jeff Passan reported that the Toronto Blue Jays, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, are finalists to land the highly coveted Japanese right-handed pitcher.

Original reporting had Sasaki meeting with just seven teams, and there was some clear movement Monday afternoon. Reports of the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs being eliminated dropped periodically throughout the day. As part of the conditions of international free agency, Sasaki’s price tag is limited to whatever dollar figure teams have available in their international bonus pool. For the Blue Jays that number is just over $6 million. The hard cap on the amount teams are allowed to spend on Sasaki make him seriously underpaid, and ensures no team will be able to separate itself by blowing him out of the water with cash. This makes the pitches from the various teams all the more interesting.

All three finalists have strong cases in their own right. What baseball player who has dreamed of winning the World Series would pass up the opportunity to join the Dodgers? The Padres could have had Japanese baseball royalty Yu Darvish wine and dine Sasaki in beautiful Southern California, and flex the (relatively) small market that many believe Sasaki may prefer. Or maybe the Blue Jays will be able to sell him on their ability to keep pitchers healthy and to control the media feeding frenzy, as Rogers’ Sportsnet is the main source of baseball media in Canada. It’s important to stress that the Dodgers remain the heavy favourites to land Sasaki, but the truth is that even after learning who the finalists are, we really aren’t sure what he’s looking for in a match.

Sasaki has carried phenom status around with him since high school, and his feats are legend. He famously threw 17 consecutive perfect innings for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB in April of 2022. If he were to choose Toronto, Sasaki would be the most exciting starting pitching signing since Roger Clemens took his talents north before the 1997 season. He would immediately slot in at the front of the rotation, turning Kevin Gausman from a slightly underwhelming number one option to an over-qualified number two starter. It's not overstating it to say that Sasaki could significantly change Toronto's outlook in a difficult American League East, especially if his ridiculous career 2.02 ERA and 5.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio translate to the big leagues as smoothly as scouts expect them to.

The projection systems love him as well. Steamer projects Sasaki to put up 3.7 fWAR during the 2025 season, striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings and running a 3.19 ERA. In terms of WAR, that's the ninth-highest projection of any pitcher, coming in right between Sonny Gray and Corbin Burnes. PECOTA projects similar numbers, pegging Sasaki for a 3.04 ERA and 3.5 WARP, 14th among all pitchers. If the transition ends up going that seamlessly, he could immediately turn a Blue Jays team currently projected for 84 to 85 wins into one flirting with 90. He'd add a new level of upside, a potential Game 1 starter in a playoff series, and provide some much-needed depth for a rotation that seriously thins out after the fourth or fifth rotation spot. Framed that way, it’s not unreasonable to say that Sasaki could be the difference between the Blue Jays making the playoffs and missing out for a second straight season.

According to the dictates of international free agency, Sasaki is confined to a tight window to make his decision. His choice will come sometime before January 23. I want to stress one more time before I let you go that Sasaki signing with the Blue Jays or Padres over the Dodgers would be a major surprise, but in the same breath, being one of three teams with a chance to acquire the services of the 23-year-old superstar is and should be extremely exciting.

Hold on tight, Jays fans.

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[Hill]

I’m ready to be crushed by disappointment. Again. Hopefully I get the finishing touches on the parade plan completed first.