Series Thread: Sept 27-29 Marlins @ Blue Jays

[Omar]

It's all over but the crying...

 

[Doubleplay21]

Manager Schneider getting a long term extension now ?

[BigCecil]

Berrios enigma. Almost a 5 FIP and xERA of 5 and sub 1 fWAR season. K rate down 2 per 9. Been lucky this season. His carrer FIP and ERA are almost identical. Not a FIP beater normally.

[Nightowl]

Into the 3rd and game already sucks on a fairly high level.

[hanton]

A nothing game but that's a poor AB by vlady with 0 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd and he's trying to hit the ball out of the park. Horwitz delivered

[Masterbather]

I have never personally seen three triples in a game, at least I can't remember seeing it.

[Spanky99]

It's all over but the crying...

 

 

Farewell boys... man this season sucked.

[jaysblue]

Farewell boys... man this season sucked.

 

You don't say...

[max silver]

Berrios enigma. Almost a 5 FIP and xERA of 5 and sub 1 fWAR season. K rate down 2 per 9. Been lucky this season. His carrer FIP and ERA are almost identical. Not a FIP beater normally.

 

It's hard to get a read on what to expect from Berrios moving forward. He had a really bad stretch in the middle of the season but prior to last night was producing one of the best extended strings of starts of his career. Even with the rough start factored in Berrios final third of the season was very solid as he managed an 11 start run of 2.54 ERA/3.79 FIP. The strikeouts were still down a bit compared to his career average during this stretch but he got the home runs allowed under control which was a key factor in the turnaround. In the late season surge he rediscovered the effectiveness of his slurve and commanded the ball more effectively. Hopefully the more effective version of Berrios shows up a little more often next season and he can avoid the mid season slump.

[Spanky99]

Lukes...

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

LETS GO BLUE JAYS *CLAP, CLAP* *CLAP, CLAP, CLAP*

 

[Omar]

Come on Vladdy get #200 so we can put a cap on this season.

 

Let's Go Tigers!

[Steeljays]

Not really impressed with any of the kids that we've seen aplenty in 2nd half. Jays have their work cut out in off season.

 

Edit: Actually Wagner looked like he could stick.

[Spanky99]

Y-Rod looking good this season.

[Spanky99]

[Doubleplay21]

29th in MLB with ERA in relief pitching....that's terrible. Its a wonder how the Jays have won so many games

[Steeljays]

29th in MLB with ERA in relief pitching....that's terrible. Its a wonder how the Jays have won so many games

 

 

I know not so much talent in pen but JS is not good with making moves.

[Steeljays]

I am hoping after tomorrow's game Atkins and JS are let go. Too high a hill to climb. Atkins should not be involved with the retool.

[Doubleplay21]

As long as fans show up no changes.

Even if Vlad leaves 35,000 fans will attend

[CrackerJack]

As long as fans show up no changes.

Even if Vlad leaves 35,000 fans will attend

 

I think that the Jays will draw under 30K per game (on average) next season. They’re averaging 33K this season … and tickets were bought in advance for a team that was supposed to be in the mix of playoff contention … also had the fleeting Ohtani frenzy … and was the first year with the shiny new 100 level renos. Attendance will drop for a last place team playing boring baseball. (If selling tickets wasn’t a concern, then they wouldn’t be trying to lure season ticket members with an opportunity to attend one of Taylor Swift’s shows at Rogers Centre.)

[jaysblue]

I think that the Jays will draw under 30K per game (on average) next season. They’re averaging 33K this season … and tickets were bought in advance for a team that was supposed to be in the mix of playoff contention … also had the fleeting Ohtani frenzy … and was the first year with the shiny new 100 level renos. Attendance will drop for a last place team playing boring baseball. (If selling tickets wasn’t a concern, then they wouldn’t be trying to lure season ticket members with an opportunity to attend one of Taylor Swift’s shows at Rogers Centre.)

 

I know several people who bought season tickets because of the Ohtani frenzy and many others probably did, though I doubt majority of those people renew their season seats for 2025.

 

If the Jays don't have an exciting offseason, likely will impact flex pack and season ticket sales in the winter.

 

They still will sell out the Home Opener, though games in April/May on a weeknight won't be full. The weekend games where there is a free giveaway still will get the fans and casuals through the turnstiles. Once the weather warms up and roof opens, weekend games will have good crowds. In the summer, they get a lot of walkups or people buying last minute on StubHub/Ticketmaster. Mostly casuals who go in large groups and socialize at one of the rooftop patios since it's something for them to do in the summer.

 

I could see the Jays drawing under 30K per game on average next season, unless they have a big offseason and are in Postseason contention for majority of the year.

[Spanky99]

Berrios enigma. Almost a 5 FIP and xERA of 5 and sub 1 fWAR season. K rate down 2 per 9. Been lucky this season. His carrer FIP and ERA are almost identical. Not a FIP beater normally.

 

And an RA9 of 3.7 WAR, good for 21st in MLB. HR's have hurt his numbers with FIP centered stats. He hasn't been as bad as you think, mate. Now the Hound has been a different story.

[Stangstag]

I know several people who bought season tickets because of the Ohtani frenzy and many others probably did, though I doubt majority of those people renew their season seats for 2025.

 

If the Jays don't have an exciting offseason, likely will impact flex pack and season ticket sales in the winter.

 

They still will sell out the Home Opener, though games in April/May on a weeknight won't be full. The weekend games where there is a free giveaway still will get the fans and casuals through the turnstiles. Once the weather warms up and roof opens, weekend games will have good crowds. In the summer, they get a lot of walkups or people buying last minute on StubHub/Ticketmaster. Mostly casuals who go in large groups and socialize at one of the rooftop patios since it's something for them to do in the summer.

 

I could see the Jays drawing under 30K per game on average next season, unless they have a big offseason and are in Postseason contention for majority of the year.

 

Lolll seriously???

 

People are funny

[BigCecil]

And an RA9 of 3.7 WAR, good for 21st in MLB. HR's have hurt his numbers with FIP centered stats. He hasn't been as bad as you think, mate. Now the Hound has been a different story.

 

I understand that bud and knew thats how you would respond if you did LOL. I get RA9. I'm just not a big fan of it. For a group that loves projections and predictive stats, it seems inconsistent to diminish the value of FIP, xERA and losing 2/9 Ks. His whiff and K rates are 15th and 22nd percentile. He gets hit hard on a relative basis. I don't think you can cherry pick out FIP related stats. Sames goes for xwOBA etc etc for hitters.

 

Jose hasn't been bad I agree, but I do think he has been lucky. There is a reason he gives up plakatas by the bushel. I haven't looked at his stuff + and Sarris's work since like mid '24 but at the time there was a concerning distinct trend down year by year for Berrios.

 

I'm also preemptive cringing on the guy as a result of above, since we have him through the 2028 season with a back end load on that deal. Hound is an issue but only for one more season at least.

 

If they all stay healthy next year, and thats a big if, the 5 expected to be in the rotation is not bad. But holy f*** we need to put some runs up. Some of the D configurations being bandied about for 2025 give me the heebie jeebies. Vlad's 3rd percentile range at 3B, Bo SS, Horwitz 2B.....I'll stop there. That could possibly the worst MLB D Infield ever LOL. So much for the "run prevention" focus...not that that worked for us that well either.

[Spanky99]

I understand that bud and knew thats how you would respond if you did LOL. I get RA9. I'm just not a big fan of it. For a group that loves projections and predictive stats, it seems inconsistent to diminish the value of FIP, xERA and losing 2/9 Ks. His whiff and K rates are 15th and 22nd percentile. He gets hit hard on a relative basis. I don't think you can cherry pick out FIP related stats. Sames goes for xwOBA etc etc for hitters.

 

Jose hasn't been bad I agree, but I do think he has been lucky. There is a reason he gives up plakatas by the bushel. I haven't looked at his stuff + and Sarris's work since like mid '24 but at the time there was a concerning distinct trend down year by year for Berrios.

 

I'm also preemptive cringing on the guy as a result of above, since we have him through the 2028 season with a back end load on that deal. Hound is an issue but only for one more season at least.

 

If they all stay healthy next year, and thats a big if, the 5 expected to be in the rotation is not bad. But holy f*** we need to put some runs up. Some of the D configurations being bandied about for 2025 give me the heebie jeebies. Vlad's 3rd percentile range at 3B, Bo SS, Horwitz 2B.....I'll stop there. That could possibly the worst MLB D IF ever LOL. So much for the "run prevention" focus...not that that worked for us that well either.

 

I understand the peripherals as well, and he has been lucky in concern of his RAR and FIP, I just like the RA9 values better over fWAR, I've been consistent in saying that. As for the offense I've been beating the production power drum for well into my 2nd year now. The offense last I saw was 11th in the league, our pitching has bled a lot of value, especially from the pen. The tail end of some of these contracts were kind of expected, but the farm has been ass for the most part and we're stuck in this expensive conundrum cause of it. FO has failed, I'm not throwing out pom poms for them, that's furthest from the truth, I wanted big change last off-season to no avail. They need to make this winter right, whomever is in charge.

 

ETA; That's just my take, and I believe we agree for the most part.

[BigCecil]

I understand the peripherals as well, and he has been lucky in concern of his RAR and FIP, I just like the RA9 values better over fWAR, I've been consistent in saying that. As for the offense I've been beating the production power drum for well into my 2nd year now. The offense last I saw was 11th in the league, our pitching has bled a lot of value, especially from the pen. The tail end of some of these contracts were kind of expected, but the farm has been ass for the most part and we're stuck in this expensive conundrum cause of it. FO has failed, I'm not throwing out pom poms for them, that's furthest from the truth, I wanted big change last off-season to no avail. They need to make this winter right, whomever is in charge.

 

ETA; That's just my take, and I believe we agree for the most part.

 

We do pretty much agree. We just come at it from different perspectives. You are an unabashed optimist about the Jays and I am just disappointed in what I had hoped what was going to be the mantra/record of this FO vs what they have delivered. I'm so bitter and jaded I can't see straight anymore lol.

 

Predominantly pissed about the drafting and development.

 

We have a bottom third farm with an expensive old team that will match 2017(another year they dumped at the deadline so its apples to apples) Win totals, only in 2024 we have a luxury tax payroll. By an objective analysis (not that mine is anymore) they have been a failure.

[CrackerJack]

Lolll seriously???

 

People are funny

 

If one really believed that Ohtani was on that flight and signing here was imminent, then is it a stretch to say that most Jays games would’ve been sellouts and having good tickets would’ve been like gold?

[Stangstag]

If one really believed that Ohtani was on that flight and signing here was imminent, then is it a stretch to say that most Jays games would’ve been sellouts and having good tickets would’ve been like gold?

 

So you’re one of the ones that got duped then

[jaysblue]

Lolll seriously???

 

People are funny

 

Haha yup. They were left disappointed.

 

I still wouldn't get baseball season tickets unless I'm splitting them with like 3 or 4 people.

[jaysblue]

If one really believed that Ohtani was on that flight and signing here was imminent, then is it a stretch to say that most Jays games would’ve been sellouts and having good tickets would’ve been like gold?

 

Nah, the ballpark still holds around 40-45K of seats and there are 81 home games. Even if they had sellouts every game, would be easy to buy tickets off StubHub or Ticketmaster Resale before game time if there was a specific game you wanted to go to. Sure maybe some matchups like against the Yankees or Dodgers would demand more money, or if it was a bobblehead or free jersey day giveaway, but for the most part it's not too difficult to get baseball tickets in Toronto and they aren't ever that much more than face value.

 

Maybe Postseason is the exception, but heck even in 2015 and 2016, ticket prices to some of the games were going for like 50-60% less than face value.

[CrackerJack]

So you’re one of the ones that got duped then

 

I’m a Blue Jays season ticket holder/member lifer.