Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[metafour]

Some teams will offer 7 yrs and then the team that will offer 10 will get him.

 

I don't think you will see less than a 10 yr contract for a 26 yr old.

 

FYI- I am in the trade camp, I was last year and at this years deadline.

 

I am just stating that if the Jays sign him to an extension, it won't be for less than $200 million and closer to FA he will get well north of that also.

 

Teams are not stupid.

 

If he wants term (ie: YEARS), they will reduce the AAV. This is how it works.

 

The Jays would likely be happy to pay him $30M AAV...over ~7-8 years. If he says that he wants 10 or 12 years, they will reduce the AAV. He will not get BOTH at the same time.

 

1B/DH-only players do NOT have the power to negotiate around that. That power hasn't existed for 10+ years now.

 

Again, in order for Matt Olson to get 8 years, he had to take a significant haircut on the AAV. He could have received a higher AAV from the Braves, but it would have come with a reduction in the total years.

[Carlos Danger]

Weren't you telling me a week or so ago that Vlad doesn't need the security of term? 230M is fair.

 

Yes. That is why he won't do some 10 yr at $20million.

 

Some guys will take the length at a lower AAV for security. I don't think Vlad will care about the security aspect. He will want length and at a higher AAV because he thinks he is worth it and his age.

[Carlos Danger]

Teams are not stupid.

 

If he wants term (ie: YEARS), they will reduce the AAV. This is how it works.

 

The Jays would likely be happy to pay him $30M AAV...over ~7-8 years. If he says that he wants 10 or 12 years, they will reduce the AAV. He will not get BOTH at the same time.

 

1B/DH-only players do NOT have the power to negotiate around that. That power hasn't existed for 10+ years now.

 

Again, in order for Matt Olson to get 8 years, he had to take a significant haircut on the AAV. He could have received a higher AAV from the Braves, but it would have come with a reduction in the total years.

 

Olson was 2 yrs older correct? He also had a really down season before he went to the Braves. Not looked at the same as Vlad as hitter.

[Spanky99]

Yes. That is why he won't do some 10 yr at $20million.

 

Some guys will take the length at a lower AAV for security. I don't think Vlad will care about the security aspect. He will want length and at a higher AAV because he thinks he is worth it and his age.

 

250M tops with the contract deferred maybe? Hard question to answer. I never said 20M by the way.

[Carlos Danger]

There's tons of ways to minimize the stupid. The most likely way is through deferred money.

 

No doubt there will be deferrals. Regardless, it doesn't affect total over all contract value the year signed.

 

A $300 million dollar contract is a $300 million dollar contract at present day value, even if deferred over 20 yrs.

 

Correct, the AAV value will not be equal to date signed in 10 yrs. However, we are discussing the present day number it would take.

[Carlos Danger]

250M tops with the contract deferred maybe? Hard question to answer. I never said 20M by the way.

 

Others were saying $200 million, hence I used the $20/10.

[John_Havok]

No doubt there will be deferrals. Regardless, it doesn't affect total over all contract value the year signed.

 

A $300 million dollar contract is a $300 million dollar contract at present day value, even if deferred over 20 yrs.

 

Correct, the AAV value will not be equal to date signed in 10 yrs. However, we are discussing the present day number it would take.

 

Well yes and no. Yes, on paper 10/300 is 10/300. But if the jays are only paying him 10 million of the 30 AAV for the first ...5 years (to just randomly pick a number), then it's far better for the Jays. Vlad still gets his AAV on paper, but that other 100m cash comes way later when he's retired from the game.

[Carlos Danger]

Well yes and no. Yes, on paper 10/300 is 10/300. But if the jays are only paying him 10 million of the 30 AAV for the first ...5 years (to just randomly pick a number), then it's far better for the Jays. Vlad still gets his AAV on paper, but that other 100m cash comes way later when he's retired from the game.

 

Not disputing this. However, if you go to Baseball reference, and MLB trade rumors the day he signs the contract, it will still say 10/300.

 

You are actually makeing a good case for my point that Vlad will get $300m or north of.

[Spanky99]

Others were saying $200 million, hence I used the $20/10.

 

Yes, I too said it was a bit light.

[glory]

I think letting Vlad get to free agency is probably the best play here if they are that far apart in extension talks. Vlad will either test the market and realize he’s not as valuable as he thinks, which would make a reunion with the Jays more realistic, or he will get the money he wants from AJ Preller or Arte Moreno or whoever, and the Jays move on. You can’t go back in time and trade him a week ago and they won’t be trading him in the winter so this is what you’re left with. Well that or a deadline deal next July, which is also possible.

[John_Havok]

Not disputing this. However, if you go to Baseball reference, and MLB trade rumors the day he signs the contract, it will still say 10/300.

 

You are actually making a good case for my point that Vlad will get $300m or north of.

 

Yeah I know, because as much as he's clearly not worth that money for on-field value, he is worth a ton off-field. I think there's a distinct possibility that he gets extended to a number that will shock people, but because of the structure, it won't really be a hamstring around their payroll.

 

I proposed a basic framework a while back... 10 year deal 300 million, but the first 4 years is heavily front loaded, largely deferred, and has an opt out after those first 4 years. The idea being he gets his high AAV on paper, the jays get him for his physical peak years ( i use the term loosely in his case) and then the latter years he either opts out if he's still swinging it and looking for another FA deal... or stays on at a much lower AAV when it won't really matter as much.

[Omar]

If Vlad continues to rake like he is now into next season he will get paid both in term and AAV and teams will be lining up to pay him.

[max silver]

Also, Vlad is not a superstar.

 

That's exactly the point of confusion. Vlad camp thinks he is a superstar. Casuals think he is a superstar.

 

Nobody "inside baseball" is going to want to pay him as a superstar.

 

What percentage of baseball fans are casual vs the hardcore types? If it's a higher percentage of casuals vs the hardcore types, then where do you go about ranking the importance of what the perception is? Becoming a superstar is largely a function of name brand value, and Vlad has reached that status already at this point of his career. He had massive levels of prospect hype, is the son of a hall of fame player, has some impressive performances in his career including a near MVP level season, a gold glove on his resume, impressive displays at the all star game including home run derby, and has a run personality that leads to him being very marketable.

 

Vlad has checked a lot of the boxes towards attaining superstar status, but hasn't been able to reliably reach that level based on actual field level performance. He's well on his way to another top 10 in MLB level of offensive season and possibly higher than that depending on his finish. He has superstar offensive potential based on the elite level of talent and very well may be in the midst of establishing himself as a superstar both on and off of the field.

[metafour]

Yeah I know, because as much as he's clearly not worth that money for on-field value, he is worth a ton off-field.

 

This is an analytically driven organization. They will not do something stupid like over-value his "off field value", whatever that is.

 

You are actually seeing more and more "franchise players" around the league either completely left to go elsewhere through free agency, or traded away...because the home team does not believe in the value of extending them. Mookie Betts (Boston). Carlos Correa and George Springer (Houston). Corey Seager (Dodgers). Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner (Washington). None of these are examples of "cheap" organizations who just couldn't afford to keep these players. Even the Mets let deGrom leave.

 

Again, teams are becoming less and less driven by emotional decisions ("zOMG nobody will buy tickets if we lose this ONE player!"). Mark Shapiro is not the type of exec who is going to overpay a 1B/DH because he is the "franchise player". Those execs barely exist anymore period.

[metafour]

What percentage of baseball fans are casual vs the hardcore types? If it's a higher percentage of casuals vs the hardcore types, then where do you go about ranking the importance of what the perception is? Becoming a superstar is largely a function of name brand value, and Vlad has reached that status already at this point of his career. He had massive levels of prospect hype, is the son of a hall of fame player, has some impressive performances in his career including a near MVP level season, a gold glove on his resume, impressive displays at the all star game including home run derby, and has a run personality that leads to him being very marketable.

 

Vlad has checked a lot of the boxes towards attaining superstar status, but hasn't been able to reliably reach that level based on actual field level performance. He's well on his way to another top 10 in MLB level of offensive season and possibly higher than that depending on his finish. He has superstar offensive potential based on the elite level of talent and very well may be in the midst of establishing himself as a superstar both on and off of the field.

 

Fans don't decide who gets paid like a Superstar. Talk about a useless post.

[Stangstag]

They might end up letting him explore free agency and then retain him.

It will be painful at times for some Jays fans and many words and tears will be spilled, but free agency could be a sobering experience for the Vlad camp. He might go there and not get offered more than $160M from any other team.

 

I mean if he is a beast for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025 he will get more money, but if he is up and down at all between now and then there is a distinct chance that no desperate team will exist that is willing to pay him anything close to $200M, in the post Eric Hosmer contract era. The post Chris Davis era.

 

But even is he does go beast mode why would any team give a player of his profile $30M or ten years? Wild stuff. I think it would be more like $27M AAV for eight years.

 

That's what im thinking. It could play out similar to the Judge situation.

[John_Havok]

This is an analytically driven organization. They will not do something stupid like over-value his "off field value", whatever that is.

 

You are actually seeing more and more "franchise players" around the league either completely left to go elsewhere through free agency, or traded away...because the home team does not believe in the value of extending them. Mookie Betts (Boston). Carlos Correa and George Springer (Houston). Corey Seager (Dodgers). Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner (Washington). None of these are examples of "cheap" organizations who just couldn't afford to keep these players. Even the Mets let deGrom leave.

 

Again, teams are becoming less and less driven by emotional decisions ("zOMG nobody will buy tickets if we lose this ONE player!"). Mark Shapiro is not the type of exec who is going to overpay a 1B/DH because he is the "franchise player". Those execs barely exist anymore period.

 

Some decent comparisons there, but in most of those cases, the team is either a) not a Luxury tax team and had to trade them, or had another (or multiple) franchise cornerstone(s) to build around. These types of deals though are largely ownership driven, and that's probably especially true in the case of Rogers, given their publicly owned nature.

[max silver]

Fans don't decide who gets paid like a Superstar. Talk about a useless post.

 

Fans don't decide who gets paid like a superstar, but having said this it seems possible that the ownership group steps in to ensure something gets done with Vlad. This could very well end up being a mistake, but Vlad is a player who is very marketable to the fanbase, has repeatedly stated he wants to remain long term, and is well on his way to finally fulfilling the type of potential he's featured since he started destroying pitching in the lower levels of the minors.

 

It seems you missed the point I was trying to make. I simply said Vlad isn't a superstar yet, but he already checks a lot of of the boxes and has potentially reached the point where he's going to produce superstar levels of offensive output moving forward.

 

If he ends this season on a similar note to his last 3 months that will suddenly give him 2 out of 4 seasons performing at superstar level with the bat. If he does that next season as well that makes 2 consecutive years at that level and 3 of 5. He's absolutely correct to bet on himself and shoot for the moon in his contract asks. There aren't really recent player extensions that are directly comparable to Vlad, as the 1B/DH types who have signed extensions in recent years were several years older than Vlad.

[max silver]

Some decent comparisons there, but in most of those cases, the team is either a) not a Luxury tax team and had to trade them, or had another (or multiple) franchise cornerstone(s) to build around. These types of deals though are largely ownership driven though, and that's probably especially true in the case of Rogers, given their publicly owned nature.

 

I think there is a chance that ownership steps in to get this deal done. This will almost certainly lead to the type of a deal that leads to a relative overpay compared to typical market rate for 1B/DH types but Vlad is the team's franchise player and there really isn't anyone else in the organization at this point to build around in his place.

[John_Havok]

I think there is a chance that ownership steps in to get this deal done. This will almost certainly lead to the type of a deal that leads to a relative overpay compared to typical market rate for 1B/DH types but Vlad is the team's franchise player and there really isn't anyone else in the organization at this point to build around in his place.

 

Also, i feel the need to point out im not advocating for this kind of deal to be signed. Just that IF an extension is done, the type that I outlined could possibly satisfy all parties involved.

[metafour]

Some decent comparisons there, but in most of those cases, the team is either a) not a Luxury tax team and had to trade them, or had another (or multiple) franchise cornerstone(s) to build around. These types of deals though are largely ownership driven though, and that's probably especially true in the case of Rogers, given their publicly owned nature.

 

I highly doubt that Rogers is jumping with excitement to pay ANY player $300M+ (who's name isn't Ohtani).

 

Shapiro will just tell them that its stupid and they will land another "franchise player". He also isn't some green exec who is going to be steamrolled by ownership.

 

Teams have learned that fans are idiots and they will change their tune on a dime. Therefore its not worth gutting your payroll to keep fans happy for a few seasons. They will grow tired of Guerrero like every other player before him. George Springer was "marketable" as well for about 1-2 seasons before he started regressing. Funny, I don't think that Rogers is making too much money on Springer's "marketability" anymore.

 

Fans also grossly overstate the "franchise player" rhetoric. Before Guerrero they had Donaldson, and before that there was Bautista. Even Vernon Wells was seen as a franchise player for a minute. Before that they had Halladay, and before that came Delgado. History has shown that when one "franchise player" leaves, the next isn't that far away. There is no scenario where Rogers is left with nobody to market in Uncrustables PB&J commercials if Guerrero leaves.

[L54]

Why is Vlad SO valuable to Rogers?

[John_Havok]

I highly doubt that Rogers is jumping with excitement to pay ANY player $300M+ (who's name isn't Ohtani).

 

Shapiro will just tell them that its stupid and they will land another "franchise player". He also isn't some green exec who is going to be steamrolled by ownership.

 

Teams have learned that fans are idiots and they will change their tune on a dime. Therefore its not worth gutting your payroll to keep fans happy for a few seasons. They will grow tired of Guerrero like every other player before him. George Springer was "marketable" as well for about 1-2 seasons before he started regressing. Funny, I don't think that Rogers is making too much money on Springer's "marketability" anymore.

 

Fans also grossly overstate the "franchise player" rhetoric. Before Guerrero they had Donaldson, and before that there was Bautista. Even Vernon Wells was seen as a franchise player for a minute. Before that they had Halladay, and before that came Delgado. History has shown that when one "franchise player" leaves, the next isn't that far away. There is no scenario where Rogers is left with nobody to market in Uncrustables PB&J commercials if Guerrero leaves.

 

One thing you're missing out of all those names though, none of them were 26 heading into FA and had been on the team since they were 20 years old.

 

I get your overall point, but Vlads situation, like it or not, is different. The landscape is different than it was even 5 years ago, let alone 10, 15 and 20 years ago

[metafour]

Why is Vlad SO valuable to Rogers?

 

He's not. The guy barely speaks English. The past two seasons he was generally loathed by fans as an underachiever, and now he is apparently so valuable that they will be forced to hand him a blank cheque?

 

Its just fans being hyperbolic as usual.

[max silver]

He's not. The guy barely speaks English. The past two seasons he was generally loathed by fans as an underachiever, and now he is apparently so valuable that they will be forced to hand him a blank cheque?

 

Its just fans being hyperbolic as usual.

 

You are doing this in the opposite direction by attempting to present Vlad as a guy who offers no marketability whatsoever. Nobody is advocating for Vlad to be offered a blank check, that's an obvious straw man argument.

[max silver]

Why is Vlad SO valuable to Rogers?

 

They operate a giant media conglomerate. Having marketable players is valuable to allow them to fully leverage the full strength of the media monster that they operate. They need to offer hope and entertainment value to get people into the seats and watching on television, if Vlad continues to perform on the field he offers both.

[max silver]

This is an analytically driven organization. They will not do something stupid like over-value his "off field value", whatever that is.

 

You are actually seeing more and more "franchise players" around the league either completely left to go elsewhere through free agency, or traded away...because the home team does not believe in the value of extending them. Mookie Betts (Boston). Carlos Correa and George Springer (Houston). Corey Seager (Dodgers). Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner (Washington). None of these are examples of "cheap" organizations who just couldn't afford to keep these players. Even the Mets let deGrom leave.

 

Again, teams are becoming less and less driven by emotional decisions ("zOMG nobody will buy tickets if we lose this ONE player!"). Mark Shapiro is not the type of exec who is going to overpay a 1B/DH because he is the "franchise player". Those execs barely exist anymore period.

 

Betts was reportedly lowballed by Red Sox ownership and potentially didn't want to stay. If there was actually a realistic avenue to getting him signed long term letting him go was a massive mistake on the part of the Red Sox. The Astros had ready made inexpensive replacements in Tucker and Pena so it made sense to let Correa and Springer walk. The Nationals tried to extend Soto and he refused to sign long term, and the Padres couldn't afford to sign him given the likely requirements and the fact they already had so many long term deals on the ledger. I suspect the Dodgers were always planning to make a massive splash when Ohtani became a free agent, as they dipped below the luxury tax to allow for this to happen with lesser penalties. DeGrom is the best starter on the planet when he's healthy, but that is happening less and less. It was by far the more prudent decision to let someone else pay him to primarily preside on the injured list. Trea Turner reportedly was unable to agree to terms with the Dodgers and seemed destined to test free agency.

[John_Havok]

They operate a giant media conglomerate. Having marketable players is valuable to allow them to fully leverage the full strength of the media monster that they operate. They need to offer hope and entertainment value to get people into the seats and watching on television, if Vlad continues to perform on the field he offers both.

 

And to a much greater extent, once all those eyeballs are on the team, all the advertising and sponsorships they sell as a result. All the attention on the Rogers name in order to make billions of dollars per year. Of course no 1 player is responsible for all of it, but it sure helps to have 1 very recognizable face to focus on

[John_Havok]

Why is Vlad SO valuable to Rogers?

 

Spitz just re-upped their sponsorship on the Lethbridge stadium for another 5 years. Just thought you'd like to know.

[L54]

You are doing this in the opposite direction by attempting to present Vlad as a guy who offers no marketability whatsoever. Nobody is advocating for Vlad to be offered a blank check, that's an obvious straw man argument.

 

You’re being disingenuous with your no marketability whatsoever comment