Around Baseball 2024

[connorp]

I mean you can say he’s worthless to be able to fix any problems. That’s probably true where he’s worthy of being fired asap

[mphenhef]

What did the Braves hitting coach do to Acuna? Pool noodle bat that's now striking out almost 28% of the time? Why would they change what he was doing? Crazy.

 

Acuna also came into the season with a lingering injury...

[mphenhef]

The Wilners of the world will say a hitting coach doesn't shoulder any of the blame for the players not hitting well as it's on the players themselves. I've never understood that take as why are you paying 3-4 of them if they have no impact on the game?

[mphenhef]

I don’t want to be seen as agreeing with d-bag Brownie, but I guess I kind of am. Listen, these are grown men, mega millionaires in the case of say George Springer. They’re going to listen to the guy for a little bit and then when they’re still doing s*****, they’re going to be like “f*** this guy, he doesn’t know s***”

 

Springer had great success listening to a garbage can, why wouldn't he listen to an actual coach?

[Laika]

The Wilners of the world will say a hitting coach doesn't shoulder any of the blame for the players not hitting well as it's on the players themselves. I've never understood that take as why are you paying 3-4 of them if they have no impact on the game?

 

I think the nuance kind of plays out like this:

 

- hitting coaches probably have minimal impact to no impact on the majority of players

- therefore, from an outside perspective it makes the most sense to assume that the hitting coach is NOT the cause or reason for a certain player being bad or good

- however, there is a tiny chance that a hitting coach could have a significant impact (or, that a bad hitting coach could f*** up a player)

- therefore, it makes sense to employ good ones. The cost vs. benefit is simply there. How much does a good hitting coach make, low six figures? If you can get 5% more out of one $10M player, the coach is worth it. Not to mention all of the routine stuff they do (the 9-5 work).

 

So... they could be at fault but they probably never are.

[connorp]

Laila’s analysis is lacking as well.

 

There’s a lot of guys coming up from milb, or shuffling between milb. Those are the guys that are likely to work with the coaches the most. Veterans definitely try things out. You’ll hear about adjustments they made when they’re doing good after a slump and you know that help likely came through consultation.

 

Their impact is no doubt going to be very hard to quantify, but anyone that’s gone through grassroots baseball knows they can be useful, generally speaking.

 

However, right or wrong, like any coach is sports, there is accountability and probably a loss of faith from players in the current hitting staff. As there kind of should be with this prolonged slide and no doubt probably many things they suggested that aren’t working.

 

Should fire their asses for sure

[MikeM3]

They set up the robots at the very least.

 

The good ones probably give you the data and because you speak the same language, you understand your steep attack angle won't do s*** with that SPs sinker so maybe let's alter our bat path that night like Corey Seager does (impossible) or how about just be more selective and hunt better pitches. I'm talking to Vlad.

 

[Brownie19]

Springer had great success listening to a garbage can, why wouldn't he listen to an actual coach?

 

Springer had the same success without the trash can - including as recently as 2021, when the Jays current hitting coach (Martinez) was also...the hitting coach. Did Martinez adopt a drastically new philosophy? Did he decline as a coach since 2021 (when the Jays offense was one of the best in baseball)? I've just always felt that seemed unlikely, which feeds my believe that they have a minimal impact on the results.

 

It's not 100% the same, but I know one of the Leafs skating coaches very well and I've talked to him about this directly - and he simply says he makes himself available to the players and does what he can - but several of them use alternative options and don't want to hear about the things they need to change to get better. When he starts to explain where they have some inefficiencies or where change is needed, they shut down and run back to their external "yes men" who tell them they are great. From all my interactions with this coach, I certainly get the impression he doesn't believe he has a significant impact on the team or their success/failure.

[Brownie19]

I think the nuance kind of plays out like this:

 

- hitting coaches probably have minimal impact to no impact on the majority of players

- therefore, from an outside perspective it makes the most sense to assume that the hitting coach is NOT the cause or reason for a certain player being bad or good

- however, there is a tiny chance that a hitting coach could have a significant impact (or, that a bad hitting coach could f*** up a player)

- therefore, it makes sense to employ good ones. The cost vs. benefit is simply there. How much does a good hitting coach make, low six figures? If you can get 5% more out of one $10M player, the coach is worth it. Not to mention all of the routine stuff they do (the 9-5 work).

 

So... they could be at fault but they probably never are.

 

Well put - thank you. I think most grossly overestimate the impact of an in-season coach at the professional level. Could a hitting coach that works with a hitter all offseason (probably in a lab) have a major impact? I think absolutely, but players have to choose that option and be willing to make change. I'm actually not 100% sure how this works, but do the Jays employ coaches all winter long in the lab in Dunedin for players to go "if they want to"? Is that how it works? or players can go to Driveline or some alternative at their own cost? Or they can do sweet f*** all if they choose? Is that correct?

 

connorp - so happy to see we agree on something. Preach my brother!

[Sorrow]

I truthfully think a lot of the Jays offensive issues are because Springer is getting older and has had a fair amount of injuries that he’s aged harder than someone like Turner. He’s likely a platoon bat or bench player unless he can adjust to maybe being a slap singles hitter.

 

Bichette has been awful since he came back from his leg injury last year, like genuinely bad at everything awful. 6th percentile range, 80 wRC+ with a .235 batting average. He likely came back to early and is still feeling the leg problems.

 

Guerrero has had two wrist injuries to the left wrist and two right knee injuries. His stance has change dramatically since he had success even from 2022 and I theorize it’s because his wrist and knee can’t take the swing he used to have so he’s compensated and it’s made the swing long which is partly why his strike zone discipline has gone to s*** it’s because he has to start early.

 

Kirk is fine when he’s only playing 3/7 days, he’s not someone who should be playing 5/7.

[Laika]

I truthfully think a lot of the Jays offensive issues are because Springer is getting older and has had a fair amount of injuries that he’s aged harder than someone like Turner. He’s likely a platoon bat or bench player unless he can adjust to maybe being a slap singles hitter.

 

Bichette has been awful since he came back from his leg injury last year, like genuinely bad at everything awful. 6th percentile range, 80 wRC+ with a .235 batting average. He likely came back to early and is still feeling the leg problems.

 

Guerrero has had two wrist injuries to the left wrist and two right knee injuries. His stance has change dramatically since he had success even from 2022 and I theorize it’s because his wrist and knee can’t take the swing he used to have so he’s compensated and it’s made the swing long which is partly why his strike zone discipline has gone to s*** it’s because he has to start early.

 

Kirk is fine when he’s only playing 3/7 days, he’s not someone who should be playing 5/7.

 

So Tristan Casas was told by doctors that his rib/cartilage injury was comparable to a car crash injury. That is the result of the types of swings some of these massive baseball players have to perform to be good, to hit 99 mph fastballs and adjust to modern breaking balls. Who f***ing knows what is going on within Vlad's body but he is directly comparable to an elite pitching prospect who comes up throwing 101 ---- high risk high reward. Very possible that his rotation, force etc. from his early career was just never going to be sustainable for a decade and he has indeed broken down a bit physically.

 

Casas doesn’t know if he’ll be able to return within three weeks or three months, but the damage to his rib cage is substantial.

 

“(The doctor) pretty much chalked it up to me being so big, rotating so fast, so many times that I created a car crash within my body,” Casas said before a 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. “It was a matter of time before this happened. He said it was something similar to like a pitcher needing Tommy John, just an inevitable thing that was going to happen sooner or later.”

[connorp]

Sports are a “bro” culture. So more say me, than most of you. Anyways, I can tell you the players are probably openly questioning the hitting coaches. They see what’s going on with Vlad and everyone and it’s natural to do be like: why am I going to spend my time working with these guys. They’re lame ducks and should all be canned. I think it will actually make the players feel more accountable even. Get some fresh eyes in the building. Get guys working at it again. Even if there’s no magic pill a hitting coach might provide, more times than not it’s going to be good getting the player in and working at some things. Even if confidence and such is the thing that comes out of it

[Brownie19]

Sports are a “bro” culture. So more say me, than most of you. Anyways, I can tell you the players are probably openly questioning the hitting coaches. They see what’s going on with Vlad and everyone and it’s natural to do be like: why am I going to spend my time working with these guys. They’re lame ducks and should all be canned. I think it will actually make the players feel more accountable even. Get some fresh eyes in the building. Get guys working at it again. Even if there’s no magic pill a hitting coach might provide, more times than not it’s going to be good getting the player in and working at some things. Even if confidence and such is the thing that comes out of it

 

I can buy into this. At some point, even if the hitting coaches have little to no impact, you cycle in a new one just for the sake of doing it and infusing a new energy. That said, I do also believe there is value in consistency within the staff. Team that cycle in a new manager year after year, new systems, new approaches, new philosophies - I think that can be detrimental in many cases (this probably applies more in football with their "systems", but I still do think it applies to baseball).

 

I would also like to hope at in the "bro" culture, the players would also look at each other and hold themselves accountable. In my experience, coaches/managers can preach all they want, but teams really come together when they hold each other accountable for their actions. If someone's out getting loaded every night, or someone is spending the offseason crushing cheetos, coming to camp out of shape - the players need to speak up and tell them that's unacceptable and hurting the teams chances for success.

[BTS]

I truthfully think a lot of the Jays offensive issues are because Springer is getting older and has had a fair amount of injuries that he’s aged harder than someone like Turner. He’s likely a platoon bat or bench player unless he can adjust to maybe being a slap singles hitter.

 

Bichette has been awful since he came back from his leg injury last year, like genuinely bad at everything awful. 6th percentile range, 80 wRC+ with a .235 batting average. He likely came back to early and is still feeling the leg problems.

 

Guerrero has had two wrist injuries to the left wrist and two right knee injuries. His stance has change dramatically since he had success even from 2022 and I theorize it’s because his wrist and knee can’t take the swing he used to have so he’s compensated and it’s made the swing long which is partly why his strike zone discipline has gone to s*** it’s because he has to start early.

 

Kirk is fine when he’s only playing 3/7 days, he’s not someone who should be playing 5/7.

 

This is a more reasonable take than assuming that the Jays, after 2022, managed to assemble the worst offensive coaching staff in baseball. A coaching staff so bad that they ruin veteran major leaguers. Varsho, Turner, Schneider, Clement, Jansen, Biggio, IKF are all meeting or exceeding expectations. There are three main reasons why the offense sucks this year:

 

A) Vlad sucks

Bichette can't run, hit, or defend. Have the horrible Jays coaches finally ruined him after 9 years in the system? Or is this a Bo problem, whether physical, mental, or both?

C) Springer has fallen off at 34

 

C) Is something the team would have expected might happen. BJMB posters talked at the time of the signing about how the back half of the deal would likely be bad, but we'll deal with that if the front half is great.And the front half was pretty good. If they can squeeze a couple of league average seasons out of him in 2024 and 2025, this isn't really a problem.

 

I'm not sure "fire everyone" is the best response to A) and . Is it the coaching staff/front office's fault that Bo looks like a 40-year old Omar Vizquel in his 6th MLB season after being great for the first 5? Because if not, we're mostly just talking about firing everyone because Vlad is a massive disappointment.

[Brownie19]

To further support this - everyone seems to like the pitching coaches. Atkins has the ability to hire and form a great pitching coach staff, but completely s*** the bed on the hitting side (even though the offense has been elite with many of the same faces on the staff)? Some are suggesting the FO is miles behind the top FO's and we need more nerds and harvard grads and people to keep us at the top of the league in game planning and such. Do you think Pete Walker is managing a team of geniuses on the pitching side, while Donny Baseball's team is a bunch of Donkey's? That just doesn't seem to add up.

[BTS]

To further support this - everyone seems to like the pitching coaches. Atkins has the ability to hire and form a great pitching coach staff, but completely s*** the bed on the hitting side (even though the offense has been elite with many of the same faces on the staff)? Some are suggesting the FO is miles behind the top FO's and we need more nerds and harvard grads and people to keep us at the top of the league in game planning and such. Do you think Pete Walker is managing a team of geniuses on the pitching side, while Donny Baseball's team is a bunch of Donkey's? That just doesn't seem to add up.

 

Reading this forum you’d think people are talking about the Rockies or White Sox, not a team with 3 straight 89+ win seasons

[Laika]

Reading this forum you’d think people are talking about the Rockies or White Sox, not a team with 3 straight 89+ win seasons

 

Entertainment bias (or lack of entertainment bias)

 

The Jays are decent but they are about as fun to watch as the f***ing Rockies so a lot of people think of them as inept

 

I swear the 2023 and 2024 brand of Blue Jays baseball has been close to the worst I have ever actively watched, and that includes every team in the last 19/20 years. Granted, some of those years were casual watching because there were no expectations of success.

[BTS]

Entertainment bias (or lack of entertainment bias)

 

The Jays are decent but they are about as fun to watch as the f***ing Rockies so a lot of people think of them as inept

 

I swear the 2023 and 2024 brand of Blue Jays baseball has been close to the worst I have ever actively watched, and that includes every team in the last 19/20 years. Granted, some of those years were casual watching because there were no expectations of success.

 

That’s fair, but it’s also mostly a Vlad problem. Vlad and Bo this year. It’s tough to watch when you’re disgusted by what should be the team’s two best players.

 

Assuming things stay mostly the same, a defining part of Atkins’ tenure is going to be how he pivots off the Bo/Vlad core this offseason. Running it back with them or moving them and failing to secure at least one replacement star bat will be a failure.

[mphenhef]

To further support this - everyone seems to like the pitching coaches. Atkins has the ability to hire and form a great pitching coach staff, but completely s*** the bed on the hitting side (even though the offense has been elite with many of the same faces on the staff)? Some are suggesting the FO is miles behind the top FO's and we need more nerds and harvard grads and people to keep us at the top of the league in game planning and such. Do you think Pete Walker is managing a team of geniuses on the pitching side, while Donny Baseball's team is a bunch of Donkey's? That just doesn't seem to add up.

 

Didn't they inherit Walker?

[connorp]

I can buy into this. At some point, even if the hitting coaches have little to no impact, you cycle in a new one just for the sake of doing it and infusing a new energy. That said, I do also believe there is value in consistency within the staff. Team that cycle in a new manager year after year, new systems, new approaches, new philosophies - I think that can be detrimental in many cases (this probably applies more in football with their "systems", but I still do think it applies to baseball).

 

I would also like to hope at in the "bro" culture, the players would also look at each other and hold themselves accountable. In my experience, coaches/managers can preach all they want, but teams really come together when they hold each other accountable for their actions. If someone's out getting loaded every night, or someone is spending the offseason crushing cheetos, coming to camp out of shape - the players need to speak up and tell them that's unacceptable and hurting the teams chances for success.

 

Yes, bro culture means you’re not a little bitch that blames your problems on someone else. However, point stands that many players aren’t going to think these hitting coaches can help them work through anything. Coaches in any sports can help. It’s just rare they’re going to make a good player bad/bad player good. But they can point things out, go over the mental approach to the AB, going over the pitcher that day. There tangible things they can help with if a player trusts the them.

[Brownie19]

That’s fair, but it’s also mostly a Vlad problem. Vlad and Bo this year. It’s tough to watch when you’re disgusted by what should be the team’s two best players.

 

Assuming things stay mostly the same, a defining part of Atkins’ tenure is going to be how he pivots off the Bo/Vlad core this offseason. Running it back with them or moving them and failing to secure at least one replacement star bat will be a failure.

 

Agreed. It's amazing the impact a couple of player can have.

 

Compare this team to the 2010 Blue Jays. That team had Jose Bautista swinging his massive dong all over the place that year. He was must watch baseball - but it was Jose and Vernon Wells that year. That was about it on offense. We had Jose Molina posting the greatest defensive season of all time before anyone knew any better (3.1 WAR in only 57 games and an 85 wRC+), Alex Gonzalez was solid (2.5 WAR), EE still sucked, Aaron Hill had a 77 wRC+ season, etc. We combined that with a really solid rotation (Romano, Marcum, Morrow, Cecil) and a mediocre bullpen.

 

Bautista alone made the 2010 Blue Jays fun to watch.

[Brownie19]

Didn't they inherit Walker?

 

I think you mean "chose to keep"

[burlingtonbandit]

Agreed. It's amazing the impact a couple of player can have.

 

Compare this team to the 2010 Blue Jays. That team had Jose Bautista swinging his massive dong all over the place that year. He was must watch baseball - but it was Jose and Vernon Wells that year. That was about it on offense. We had Jose Molina posting the greatest defensive season of all time before anyone knew any better (3.1 WAR in only 57 games and an 85 wRC+), Alex Gonzalez was solid (2.5 WAR), EE still sucked, Aaron Hill had a 77 wRC+ season, etc. We combined that with a really solid rotation (Romano, Marcum, Morrow, Cecil) and a mediocre bullpen.

 

Bautista alone made the 2010 Blue Jays fun to watch.

 

2011 was really fun too. I think that year I watched maybe 160 out of 162 games. It felt like Jose wouldn't miss any mistake pitch in the zone, was amazing just watching his at bats. Meanwhile you had Jo-Jo Reyes pitching every 5th day and Corey Patterson taking at bats in front of Bautista.

 

Now not only is the team bad, but you have comments from Schneider and the FO being like "I'm confident this team can turn it around blah blah blah" showing no accountability. Its just the same s*** over again.

[Brownie19]

2011 was really fun too. I think that year I watched maybe 160 out of 162 games. It felt like Jose wouldn't miss any mistake pitch in the zone, was amazing just watching his at bats. Meanwhile you had Jo-Jo Reyes pitching every 5th day and Corey Patterson taking at bats in front of Bautista.

 

Now not only is the team bad, but you have comments from Schneider and the FO being like "I'm confident this team can turn it around blah blah blah" showing no accountability. Its just the same s*** over again.

 

I feel like a broken record, but I feel like people get hung up on "media talk" too much. Reiterating your confidence in the guys in the clubhouse is "media talk 101". Sure, they could say "we need to be better", but you aren't going to get a "The leaders on this team need to step it up. They're performance is unacceptable" - which is 100% true and what some fans want (expect?) to hear.

 

If you want players to "play for you" - they need to feel like you've got their back. If you throw them under the bus in the public - that doesn't often get results or build any trust. I 100% believe the FO and Schneider are concerned - but they aren't going to air that out in the public.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm confident Vlad and Bo will turn it around also, the real question is, will it happen in time? If they go another month like this, gonna be tough to hit the postseason.

[Brownie19]

I'm confident Vlad and Bo will turn it around also, the real question is, will it happen in time? If they go another month like this, gonna be tough to hit the postseason.

 

What does a "turn around" season look like for Vlad?

[Jimcanuck]

What does a "turn around" season look like for Vlad?

 

wRC+ over 130

[Brownie19]

wRC+ over 130

 

He's at 104 right now. Springer is at 83 and Bo is at 62.

 

I would render a guess that if Vlad finishes over 130, Bo over 120 and Springer over 110 - this offense will be good enough to get into the playoffs and we might go into the playoffs with some serious offensive momentum. Perhaps this is the year we take advantage of getting "lucky" early in the season - we've weathered the storm. But if those 3 don't land above those benchmarks, we're probably f***ed.

[Omar]

With respect to coaches and their impact:

 

I generally believe that the coaches impact on a player is inversely proportional to the talent level of the player.

 

That is, the more talented the player the less of an impact the coach makes on their performance.

 

A hitting coach is more likely to move the needle on mediocre player. Why, well a lot of factors come into play, not least being the psychological aspect.

[Stangstag]

Agreed. It's amazing the impact a couple of player can have.

 

Compare this team to the 2010 Blue Jays. That team had Jose Bautista swinging his massive dong all over the place that year. He was must watch baseball - but it was Jose and Vernon Wells that year. That was about it on offense. We had Jose Molina posting the greatest defensive season of all time before anyone knew any better (3.1 WAR in only 57 games and an 85 wRC+), Alex Gonzalez was solid (2.5 WAR), EE still sucked, Aaron Hill had a 77 wRC+ season, etc. We combined that with a really solid rotation (Romano, Marcum, Morrow, Cecil) and a mediocre bullpen.

 

Bautista alone made the 2010 Blue Jays fun to watch.

 

Just imagine if Hill and Lind had repeated their 2009 seasons in 2010 though. That's a VERY solid offense with a big young guy in Travis Snider coming up too.

 

f***ing frustrating that all our big prospects have fizzled out over the last decade or so, and we can never get a handful of guys all clicking at the same time.

.

Just imagine that core of Wells, Lind, Hill and Snider, all hitting like they should, plus a found gem in Bautista. Thats the Redsox every couple years.