ROSS ATKINS is going to be back in 2024? WTF!?!? Lmao unreal.

[Brownie19]

the bigger embarrassment to the trade is shatkins trying to convince us that we need more time to judge this trade.

Accoutability and these fools dont go together

 

You don't see ANY reason at all to give this trade more time before evaluating it? Even if you don't - is it too difficult to understand that some people see value in waiting a bit longer before they form a judgement? You've never seen a baseball player improve after a difficult year on a new team? You've never seen a player experience a sophomore slump, or an extended slump after some early success?

 

Based on this logic, do you think Davis Schneider is destine for the HOF?

[jaysblue]

Well I cancelled by MLB TV and won't be watching next season. Not looking forward to all the stupid desperation moves he makes to decimate our farm system completely before he's fired after next season.

 

No need to cancel your MLB TV subscription just because of the Jays. Can watch other teams, instead of just the Jays.

[thatoneguy]

Shapiro clearly knows baseball, but I just don't like this team being led by Atkins given his apparent disconnect and failure to build a division winner or a team capable of playoff success, often with glaring holes that obviously need to be fixed (e.g. the bullpen in 2021, the offense this year).

 

There also needs to be more accountability for players who show obvious bad habits.

[Marew]

No need to cancel your MLB TV subscription just because of the Jays. Can watch other teams, instead of just the Jays.

 

Not everyone likes baseball, some people like to bandwagon when the team is good then go away for a few years.

[Marew]

You don't see ANY reason at all to give this trade more time before evaluating it? Even if you don't - is it too difficult to understand that some people see value in waiting a bit longer before they form a judgement? You've never seen a baseball player improve after a difficult year on a new team? You've never seen a player experience a sophomore slump, or an extended slump after some early success?

 

Based on this logic, do you think Davis Schneider is destine for the HOF?

 

We already know David Snider has no future. He went 0-35 or something. Worse than Bregman when he first came up in 2016.

[BigCecil]

You don't see ANY reason at all to give this trade more time before evaluating it? Even if you don't - is it too difficult to understand that some people see value in waiting a bit longer before they form a judgement? You've never seen a baseball player improve after a difficult year on a new team? You've never seen a player experience a sophomore slump, or an extended slump after some early success?

 

Based on this logic, do you think Davis Schneider is destine for the HOF?

 

I think there are 2 times to truly evaluate a trade. At the time it is made and 2/4 years later. At the time this was made, if Varsho is a consistent 5 WAR player you can squint and see it make sense. But he crashed to 2.1 (same as LGJ). Moreno just turned 23 and was a top MLB prospect in a premium position that has +2 years control.

 

Players can press hard after a trade and do worse or they can get a new team (the good ol' change of scenery narrative) and take off. I don't think there is any hard evidence thats supports anything conclusive in this area. You can point to examples of both cases easily across MLB. Putting Varsho in the 4 hole to start in the year, in retrospect, probably wasnt the wisest move for his confidence.

 

I think most of would have rather moved Kirk but maybe that didn't get the trade done or our FO wanted to keep Kirk. We will never really know.

 

I see the point you are trying to make but I dont know that the Scheider reference is logic analogous. Varsho is 27 already with 1600 PAs (3 full seasons) career 96 wRC+. Looks like more than a sophomore slump. Looks like this year was closer to to who he is at the plate than '22. His savant page is ugly offensively. He did hit a ball 113 this yr so the upside power tool is real. He just didn't do it enough.

 

Could he be another Jose, Edwin and JD who improved their offensive numbers later in their careers? Yep. But thats hunting unicorns. I'd say there is just as much chance his D falls off as he ages. His sprint speed is 69th. His arm is 40th percentile. His jumps and reads are excellent. His D has to be elite to add value. I am looking forward to seeing him in CF all of '24 to see how he reacts, and if he can bounce back to a league avg or better bat. That would take him back up to 3-4 WAR and this trade would look better.

[Brownie19]

I think there are 2 times to truly evaluate a trade. At the time it is made and 2/4 years later. At the time this was made, if Varsho is a consistent 5 WAR player you can squint and see it make sense. But he crashed to 2.1 (same as LGJ). Moreno just turned 23 and was a top MLB prospect in a premium position that has +2 years control.

 

Players can press hard after a trade and do worse or they can get a new team (the good ol' change of scenery narrative) and take off. I don't think there is any hard evidence thats supports anything conclusive in this area. You can point to examples of both cases easily across MLB. Putting Varsho in the 4 hole to start in the year, in retrospect, probably wasnt the wisest move for his confidence.

 

I think most of would have rather moved Kirk but maybe that didn't get the trade done or our FO wanted to keep Kirk. We will never really know.

 

I see the point you are trying to make but I dont know that the Scheider reference is logic analogous. Varsho is 27 already with 1600 PAs (3 full seasons) career 96 wRC+. Looks like more than a sophomore slump. Looks like this year was closer to to who he is at the plate than '22. His savant page is ugly offensively. He did hit a ball 113 this yr so the upside power tool is real. He just didn't do it enough.

 

Could he be another Jose, Edwin and JD who improved their offensive numbers later in their careers? Yep. But thats hunting unicorns. I'd say there is just as much chance his D falls off as he ages. His sprint speed is 69th. His arm is 40th percentile. His jumps and reads are excellent. His D has to be elite to add value. I am looking forward to seeing him in CF all of '24 to see how he reacts, and if he can bounce back to a league avg or better bat. That would take him back up to 3-4 WAR and this trade would look better.

 

C'mon man - if Varsho is a consistent 5 WAR player, this trade would be a massive win for the Jays.

 

The sophomore slump reference was for Moreno. He's been good for 1/2 a season in the majors (2nd half 2023). Will the league adjust to him? Will he adjust back? Nobody really knows. Obviously he's had a lot of success in the minors, but it's not a given he takes off and becomes a star player. Look at what happened with Kirk this year (while remembering he also had great minor league success). If there are any MLB fans that should be cautious with giving a catcher who hit great for 1/2 a season too much praise - it's Jays fans.

 

My point was - it's idiotic to get all worked up because Shatkins suggested that fans need to give this trade a few years before evaluating it - claiming they have no accountability. It's just stupid.

 

And FWIW, I do thinks there's a very good chance that Moreno does become a star, while Varsho becomes a solid, defensive CFer. I do think we'll look back on this trade in 3-4 years and claim it was a mistake. It's just too early to conclude that.

[connorp]

War schmar… bringing up playoff rosters again, but there isn’t a big difference between KK and Varsho D that will show in a short series. Defensive CF is entirely replaceable in FA and trade market (without dealing megs prospect) if you want to sacrifice offense for defense

 

If he can’t hit for s***, Varsho was a bad move if Moreno is really good

[malibu64]

It's really simple, Atkins bought high on Varsho. The narrative should always be buy low and sell high, which is what AA did.

 

Atkins isn't bad, he's just not outstanding. The results speak for themselves.

[Laika]

Buying high can make sense if you think the breakout is legit.

 

Varsho's defense was as good as they thought and his defensive value will probably be a bit higher as a full time CF.

 

The funny thing is that the IMPRESSION for Jays fans is that he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. But it's not really true - his offensive profile is just kind of on the razor's edge between acceptable and poor. His AVG and K rate were relatively stable compared to 2022 and 2021, when he was a 100 and 107 wRC+ player.

His power was down a bit in 2023.

So all it takes for him to swing from a nearly 110 wRC+ player to an 85 wRC+ player is some very minor bad luck on BABIP and a minor dip in power.

 

That is to say, he's like one teeny tiny adjustment away from being exactly the same player he was in 2022.

 

He needs to like, get 3 more successful bunts down and turn maybe 5 big flyout swings into homers. That's it.

[Brownie19]

War schmar… bringing up playoff rosters again, but there isn’t a big difference between KK and Varsho D that will show in a short series. Defensive CF is entirely replaceable in FA and trade market (without dealing megs prospect) if you want to sacrifice offense for defense

 

If he can’t hit for s***, Varsho was a bad move if Moreno is really good

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2021

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2022

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?season=2023&pos=cf

 

 

Oh - my bad, there are always several quality CFers available in free agency year after year. How could I be so stupid?

 

I also recall the Yanks got Harrison Bader and SD got Trent Grisham for nothing. We should have just done that.

[BTS]

It's really simple, Atkins bought high on Varsho. The narrative should always be buy low and sell high, which is what AA did.

 

Atkins isn't bad, he's just not outstanding. The results speak for themselves.

 

AA had a habit of trading for ageing injury-prone vets on FA contracts. He doesn't do it anymore, but it's what let to Toronto having a short contention window.

[Spanky99]

War schmar… bringing up playoff rosters again, but there isn’t a big difference between KK and Varsho D that will show in a short series. Defensive CF is entirely replaceable in FA and trade market (without dealing megs prospect) if you want to sacrifice offense for defense

 

If he can’t hit for s***, Varsho was a bad move if Moreno is really good

 

lol...

[malibu64]

AA had a habit of trading for ageing injury-prone vets on FA contracts. He doesn't do it anymore, but it's what let to Toronto having a short contention window.

 

We "sold" low on AA, especially after he did his learning curve here with the Jays.

[Spanky99]

We "sold" low on AA, especially after he did his learning curve here with the Jays.

 

AA did an okay job here, but his learning curve was in LA, he said as much. He is now underneath the elite GM umbrella.

[connorp]

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2021

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2022

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?season=2023&pos=cf

 

 

Oh - my bad, there are always several quality CFers available in free agency year after year. How could I be so stupid?

 

I also recall the Yanks got Harrison Bader and SD got Trent Grisham for nothing. We should have just done that.

 

You can cherry pick example, like I did with KK. Also, don’t forget OPS bats of .650 won’t even get much opportunity to be building D WAR, as they’re subs

[Laika]

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2021

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=cf&season=2022

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?season=2023&pos=cf

 

 

Oh - my bad, there are always several quality CFers available in free agency year after year. How could I be so stupid?

 

I also recall the Yanks got Harrison Bader and SD got Trent Grisham for nothing. We should have just done that.

 

The KK signing was such a grand slam that mental midgets like connorp think an MLB squad can do it every year.

 

No. There are almost never quality CF available in free agency for reasonable costs. You either pay big for a Nimmo/Springer level FA or you are weighing Kevin Pillar against a 37 year old Brett Gardner i.e. looking at bench players and backups.

 

2024 is actually a bumper crop for possible 1 year CF options. Best I have seen in a while. You have Michael A. Taylor, KK, and Harrison Bader who may sign a pillow contract. All three of those guys you could probably just give 500+ PA to and they would provide 2 WAR or close to 2 WAR.

 

There is a big difference between "sacrificing offense" and starting a 90 wRC+ player vs. sacrificing all semblance of offense and starting a 70 wRC+ player.

 

Dude says "WAR schmar" and then makes a mistake that WAR prevents you from making. He's like a cartoon message board buffoon.

[connorp]

Wait until we see the projections. Edited October 17, 2023 by connorp

[Stangstag]

War schmar… bringing up playoff rosters again, but there isn’t a big difference between KK and Varsho D that will show in a short series. Defensive CF is entirely replaceable in FA and trade market (without dealing megs prospect) if you want to sacrifice offense for defense

 

If he can’t hit for s***, Varsho was a bad move if Moreno is really good

 

Isn’t that just it though? Varsho SHOULD be a much better bat than KK. Just didn’t happen this year. He has way more HR power than KK, which as we have all seen is the difference maker in the playoffs.

 

If he doesn’t rebound with the bat next year then yeah this trade starts looking awful

[connorp]

Isn’t that just it though? Varsho SHOULD be a much better bat than KK. Just didn’t happen this year. He has way more HR power than KK, which as we have all seen is the difference maker in the playoffs.

 

If he doesn’t rebound with the bat next year then yeah this trade starts looking awful

 

Yeah, I haven’t Biggio’d him in my mind. Really should know more after a couple months of next season

[BigCecil]

Buying high can make sense if you think the breakout is legit.

 

Varsho's defense was as good as they thought and his defensive value will probably be a bit higher as a full time CF.

 

The funny thing is that the IMPRESSION for Jays fans is that he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. But it's not really true - his offensive profile is just kind of on the razor's edge between acceptable and poor. His AVG and K rate were relatively stable compared to 2022 and 2021, when he was a 100 and 107 wRC+ player.

His power was down a bit in 2023.

So all it takes for him to swing from a nearly 110 wRC+ player to an 85 wRC+ player is some very minor bad luck on BABIP and a minor dip in power.

 

That is to say, he's like one teeny tiny adjustment away from being exactly the same player he was in 2022.

 

He needs to like, get 3 more successful bunts down and turn maybe 5 big flyout swings into homers. That's it.

 

Who thinks he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. He has a 96 wRC+ over 1600 PAs. Thats just a fact. Could he add 25-30 points to his '23 bat with some adjustments & more luck?

 

Sure. But you can cherry pick aspects of hitting profile and make this same case for lots of players in MLB. You can probably make the same case for Biggio, for example.

 

Time will tell.

[jaysblue]

Who thinks he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. He has a 96 wRC+ over 1600 PAs. Thats just a fact. Could he add 25-30 points to his '23 bat with some adjustments & more luck?

 

Sure. But you can cherry pick aspects of hitting profile and make this same case for lots of players in MLB. You can probably make the same case for Biggio, for example.

 

Time will tell.

 

Varsho just needs to lay a couple more bunts down and turn some fly balls into HR's and he's back to being close to a 5 WAR player. It's that simple!

[jaysblue]

AA had a habit of trading for ageing injury-prone vets on FA contracts. He doesn't do it anymore, but it's what let to Toronto having a short contention window.

 

AA traded for one of the best players in baseball at the time in Josh Donaldson who went onto win the AL MVP in 2015. He also locked up elite players like Bautista and EE to extremely team friendly contracts. Signed Russell Martin to a great contract after he posted a 6.2 WAR season. Brought over Estrada who was a reliable SP. Made some big moves at the 2015 trade deadline that got the Jays to the ALCS and almost to the World Series. But yeah his whole tenure in Toronto should be defined by the Marlins trade and Dickey trade before the 2013 season.

[Laika]

Who thinks he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. He has a 96 wRC+ over 1600 PAs. Thats just a fact. Could he add 25-30 points to his '23 bat with some adjustments & more luck?

 

Sure. But you can cherry pick aspects of hitting profile and make this same case for lots of players in MLB. You can probably make the same case for Biggio, for example.

 

Time will tell.

 

It's true for Biggio too though.

 

The difference is that Biggio is not a +20 defensive player. He's a minus defensive player. So his oscillation between replacement level player and a 1.5 WAR player is not that interesting anymore.

 

I would say that the "average Jays fan" including many on this board think that Varsho is hopeless with the stick.

[BTS]

AA traded for one of the best players in baseball at the time in Josh Donaldson who went onto win the AL MVP in 2015. He also locked up elite players like Bautista and EE to extremely team friendly contracts. Signed Russell Martin to a great contract after he posted a 6.2 WAR season. Brought over Estrada who was a reliable SP. Made some big moves at the 2015 trade deadline that got the Jays to the ALCS and almost to the World Series. But yeah his whole tenure in Toronto should be defined by the Marlins trade and Dickey trade before the 2013 season.

 

You seem to have a hard time following the flow of conversations, but I was responding to a post defining AA’s MO here as buying low and selling high. That wasn’t his MO at all. He didn’t sell, and was very comfortable paying sticker price for good vets.

[glory]

I’ve said before, the biggest mistake with Varsho was making that trade after already signing Kiermaier. Unintentionally sabotaged Varsho’s first year because putting him in LF put way more pressure on his bat, and didn’t get the maximum value for his glove since he wasn’t in CF. I still believe he’s a 3-4 WAR player next season in CF, but we will see. Depends on if he’s a 100 wRC+ true talent or an 80 wRC+ true talent.

[BTS]

That's not even necessarily a criticism of AA. MLB isn't the stock market, and outside of the Rays, most well-run teams aren't relying on buying distressed assets and then trying to trade them at peak value. Teams with budgets pay for good players, and then just keep them or let them walk via FA.

[Spanky99]

That's not even necessarily a criticism of AA. MLB isn't the stock market, and outside of the Rays, most well-run teams aren't relying on buying distressed assets and then trying to trade them at peak value. Teams with budgets pay for good players, and then just keep them or let them walk via FA.

 

Like Houston, LA and NY, especially.

[BTS]

Like Houston, LA and NY, especially.

 

Yeah. St. Louis too, basically for the last 20 years. If a good player comes through the system, they keep them. They'll also pay up for older impact talent, then just keep them until they retire.

[connorp]

Looking at the Phillies, they don’t really have any terrible deals on the books. I wasn’t a fan of the Walker signing but he’s a backend guy. They definitely bought themselves a WS team