GDT: O's @ Jays: Game 4/4 (3:07 ET)

[Brownie19]

The shift ban has heavily impacted BABIP on groundballs (I don’t think im talking out my ass here??) and so I think they have made more of an effort to have speedy guys and to hit to contact more. I’m pretty sure I heard Ross mentioning it once or twice in the offseason. Its why they went for speedy lefties like Varsho and KK. The bigger bases also means less distance to 1st, so again speedier guys like Whit, Varsho, KK. And obviously a heavier emphasis on being aggressive on the bases overall.

 

Im actually surprised we didn’t keep Tapia but I guess he was redundant with Varsho and KK

 

Interesting. But I mean Merrifield and KK have been great this year - so that seems to be working. I don't think Varsho is hitting a lot more ground balls, trying to leg it out, so I don't know how the rules have impacted any philosophy. I could see the Jays expecting the new shift rules would only help Varsho be more productive (obviously that isn't happening yet).

[Brownie19]

Hatch reminds me of The Grilli.

 

[Brownie19]

I partly agree with you but I guess it might be instructive to try and understand what happened to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacian and then work from there.

 

Both as hitters were very similar to bad Guerrero, the 2022 version. Then something happened that changed their 15-20 homer power to 40 homer power.

 

So what was it? A random hitting tip? A brilliant hitting tip from Cito Gaston? Something they read? Pharmaceutical help? The man in white?

 

I think the 'official' story involves hitting mechanics and Cito (or someone else) simply unlocking the talent by working out timing and hitting mechanics. So if the 'official' story is true shouldn't Guerrero (and maybe a couple of others), who is starting from a better talent base also be helped with mechanical adjustments? And shouldn't this be job number one of the hitting coach?

 

For the 87th time - the team is flying in Vlad's uncles and other people in his posse because that's the only people he'll work with. There's a good chance he doesn't want to hear the truth and simply is surrounding himself with 'yes' men who make him feel good.

 

Coaches can't work with people who don't want to learn. This is common in pro sports.

[DonJays]

f*** do I ever like this new guy...

Lol

[Daniel Labude]

Listen I'm not a fan of Martinez nor am I interested in defending him. But let's ponder this. Why is Danny Jansen allowed to exclusively pull the ball but everyone else is not? Do we really believe the Hitting Coach of the Baseball team is determining where all players should be hitting the ball? Like they absolutely f***ed with Varsho in Spring by trying a different approach with him trying to unlock him as more than just power guy and it back fired in a Major way. But it's very difficult for me to believe that one guy is telling everyone how to hit and they are listening to him like its the gospel. It sounds like very convenient excuse to cover the ass of under performing players. But sometimes sports firing coaches works as a scape goat so why not try it.

 

Let's look at it a different way, its basically all the same players as the last 2-4 years. Did the league suddenly become all superstars even the 10 ERA pitchers? Or maybe the Jays changed and it isn't working

[BigCecil]

I partly agree with you but I guess it might be instructive to try and understand what happened to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacian and then work from there.

 

Both as hitters were very similar to bad Guerrero, the 2022 version. Then something happened that changed their 15-20 homer power to 40 homer power.

 

So what was it? A random hitting tip? A brilliant hitting tip from Cito Gaston? Something they read? Pharmaceutical help? The man in white?

 

I think the 'official' story involves hitting mechanics and Cito (or someone else) simply unlocking the talent by working out timing and hitting mechanics. So if the 'official' story is true shouldn't Guerrero (and maybe a couple of others), who is starting from a better talent base also be helped with mechanical adjustments? And shouldn't this be job number one of the hitting coach?

 

I listened to a great interview with Jose on his HR increase once. He said he perfected the big leg kick and early load. It allowed him to pull balls more and just increased how hard he could hit the ball. JD did virtually the same thing when he converted from C to 3B. He said learned how to keep his hands back despite that load so he could still be elite at pitch selection. Not easy to do.

 

Edwin trained with Cano hard one off season and starting keeping both hand on the bat throughout his swing. And for whatever reason got a lot better at pitch selection and laying off the SL away. Combined with the move off 3B where he was able to focus on offence and amazingly hit over 400 MLB HRs.

 

The under market extensions of Jose/Edwin were risks that turned out to be a couple of AA's best moves.

[Olerud363]

I listened to a great interview with Jose on his HR increase once. He said he perfected the big leg kick and early load. It allowed him to pull balls more and just increased how hard he could hit the ball. JD did virtually the same thing when he converted from C to 3B. He said learned how to keep his hands back despite that load so he could still be elite at pitch selection. Not easy to do.

 

Edwin trained with Cano hard one off season and starting keeping both hand on the bat throughout his swing. And for whatever reason got a lot better at pitch selection and laying off the SL away. Combined with the move off 3B where he was able to focus on offence and amazingly hit over 400 MLB HRs.

 

The under market extensions of Jose/Edwin were risks that turned out to be a couple of AA's best moves.

 

 

Right. That's why this is an interesting debate. Obviously in the history of baseball there are some guys who have turned it around, even in their late 20s, based on improved hitting mechanics and timing. So whos to say the right hitting coach couldn't unlock more in Guerrero and other players?

 

On the other hand maybe it is more up to the player himself, to discover what works. Interesting that Bautista/EE both did not discover the right approach until age 29 -- A full 5 years older than Guerrero is now.

[Brownie19]

Let's look at it a different way, its basically all the same players as the last 2-4 years. Did the league suddenly become all superstars even the 10 ERA pitchers? Or maybe the Jays changed and it isn't working

 

I mean you replaced Teo's 130 wRC+ bat with a 72 wRC+ bat. Nobody honestly believes the team that was the 2nd base offense in baseball last year came into this season and told all the players to make drastic changes.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Maybe its just the bourbon but this is why I love baseball. It's such a technical sport. Your technique matters almost as much, if not more, than your athleticism. Even after the ball game is concluded you can sit around the table with the boys and debate the merits and impact of a hitting coach. The beauty of a philosophical debate on hitting technique juxtaposed with the pure euphoria as a man wearing your preferred pajamas smashes a ball into the stands for a home run! This is truly the greatest sport of all.

[L54]

Maybe it’s. just the bourbon but this is why I love baseball. It's such a technical sport. Your technique matters almost as much, if not more, than your athleticism. Even after the ball game is concluded you can sit around the table with the boys and debate the merits and impact of a hitting coach. The beauty of a philosophical debate on hitting technique juxtaposed with the pure euphoria as a man wearing your preferred pajamas smashes a ball into the stands for a home run! This is truly the greatest sport of all.

 

Couldn’t agree more. The greatest game on earth.

[BigCecil]

Right. That's why this is an interesting debate. Obviously in the history of baseball there are some guys who have turned it around, even in their late 20s, based on improved hitting mechanics and timing. So whos to say the right hitting coach couldn't unlock more in Guerrero and other players?

 

On the other hand maybe it is more up to the player himself, to discover what works. Interesting that Bautista/EE both did not discover the right approach until age 29 -- A full 5 years older than Guerrero is now.

 

Unicorns my man Unicorns...for every 1 of them there are 100 or more Collabellos who just can't sustain.

[Omar]

Unicorns my man Unicorns...for every 1 of them there are 100 or more Collabellos who just can't sustain.

 

Bats and JD also had the physical fitness and body type wherein they could torque their hips and have their hands follow through pulling ball and crushing it. Vladdy does not have either the physical or mental discipline (so far) despite his great hit tool to make the adjustment.

[jaysblue]

This team has been frustrating to watch this season. The Orioles have the Jays number and are clearly the more superior team. Jays are a fringe WC team who could get lucky in the Postseason if everything clicks. Other than that, this team has greatly underachieved this season.

[Stangstag]

This series was not ideal

[Stangstag]

Bats and JD also had the physical fitness and body type wherein they could torque their hips and have their hands follow through pulling ball and crushing it. Vladdy does not have either the physical or mental discipline (so far) despite his great hit tool to make the adjustment.

 

24 year old Vlad has the body of a retired Edwin Encarnacion. Remember when he threw out the first pitch last year?? Haha

[Olerud363]

I mean you replaced Teo's 130 wRC+ bat with a 72 wRC+ bat. Nobody honestly believes the team that was the 2nd base offense in baseball last year came into this season and told all the players to make drastic changes.

 

That's not true. You replaced 30 year old Teo (116 wRC+ lifetime) with a 26 year old with 100 wRC+ lifetime who at age 25 was exactly the hitter Teo was at 25.

 

It would be unrealistic to expect Varsho to make the same type of improvements Teo did at age 27, but it would be reasonable to expect him to be a bit better entering 26-29.

 

So you probably replaced a 120 projection with a 105 and got a 72. Varsho is way below projections as is Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Biggio, Espinal.

[Olerud363]

I mean you replaced Teo's 130 wRC+ bat with a 72 wRC+ bat. Nobody honestly believes the team that was the 2nd base offense in baseball last year came into this season and told all the players to make drastic changes.

 

I agree with you that it's not as simple as the hitting coach just giving stupid advice to the entire team, on the other hand that could be part of the larger problem which is simply Toronto hitting coach's and strategist being behind the curve.

 

Hitting coach (and team) needs to also be psychiatrist and persuasion expert, they need to get guys who may not be super-coachable to buy in, and stick with things even if they don't work at first.

[jaysblue]

The under market extensions of Jose/Edwin were risks that turned out to be a couple of AA's best moves.

 

This doesn't get brought up enough on here. Everyone praises Atkins on his FA signings/trades more than they did AA. But AA did lock up two of the best franchise players of the last decade to very team friendly extensions! We've also seen AA work his magic in Atlanta, locking up core players to team friendly extensions. Atkins hasn't done that at all yet with players like Bo or Vlad. In hindsight, not signing Vlad to an extension is looking like the right move, but even if Vladdy was hitting like he did in 2021, doubt he would have been locked up to a team friendly extension.

 

Atkins has done well with some big FA signings obviously - Gausman, Semien as a buy low etc and with some trades like Chapman, buying low on Ray, Matz, etc. Otherwise, the Springer, Bassitt, Ryu contracts haven't looked that good. Springer is looking worrisome and could be toast for the remaining years of his contract. Bassitt is being paid over $40M as a No. 4 starter.

 

Overall, AA was definitely the better baseball mind and still is. Under AA, this team came close to a World Series. We haven't seen that under Atkins yet.

[Brownie19]

Atkins has done well with some big FA signings obviously - Gausman, Semien as a buy low etc and with some trades like Chapman, buying low on Ray, Matz, etc. Otherwise, the Springer, Bassitt, Ryu contracts haven't looked that good. Springer is looking worrisome and could be toast for the remaining years of his contract. Bassitt is being paid over $40M as a No. 4 starter.

 

You need to stop calling Bassitt a #4 starter man. His WAR is like 60th overall for starters this year. That would make him a back end #2 starter. If you want to argue he's a #4 on a WS contending team, go ahead, but in all likelihood, he's a very solid #3 for a winning team. On Texas, he'd be their #3 starter (assuming you just replace DeGrom with Max). On the O's, he'd be their #3 starter. Same with the Brewers, Reds, Giants, Braves, etc.

[jaysblue]

You need to stop calling Bassitt a #4 starter man. His WAR is like 60th overall for starters this year. That would make him a back end #2 starter. If you want to argue he's a #4 on a WS contending team, go ahead, but in all likelihood, he's a very solid #3 for a winning team. On Texas, he'd be their #3 starter (assuming you just replace DeGrom with Max). On the O's, he'd be their #3 starter. Same with the Brewers, Reds, Giants, Braves, etc.

 

The big BJMB homer and apologist coming out with pitch forks after calling Bassitt a No. 4 starter lol.

 

You do realize Bassitt still has over 40M owed on his contract past this season for his age 35 and 36 season? So far this season he has posted a 4.00 ERA, and 4.57 FIP. Orioles have got more value out of Gibson for $10M and they have no long term commitment to him after this season.

 

Again I don't have an issue with Bassitt this season. He's been solid and I've said that numerous times in other threads. Sure he's a No.3/4 guy but nothing more. Was he worth $60M over three years? An overpay IMO given his age. Considering that the Jays are at the luxury tax threshold, that $40M over the next two seasons could prevent the Jays from making other big moves.

 

But yeah any criticism of Atkins, I know you'll come defending him. I always get a good laugh at your responses! You're such a huge homer haha.

[Brownie19]

The big BJMB homer and apologist coming out with pitch forks after calling Bassitt a No. 4 starter lol.

 

You do realize Bassitt still has over 40M owed on his contract past this season for his age 35 and 36 season? So far this season he has posted a 4.00 ERA, and 4.57 FIP. Orioles have got more value out of Gibson for $10M and they have no long term commitment to him after this season.

 

Again I don't have an issue with Bassitt this season. He's been solid and I've said that numerous times in other threads. Sure he's a No.3/4 guy but nothing more. Was he worth $60M over three years? An overpay IMO given his age. Considering that the Jays are at the luxury tax threshold, that $40M over the next two seasons could prevent the Jays from making other big moves.

 

But yeah any criticism of Atkins, I know you'll come defending him. I always get a good laugh at your responses! You're such a huge homer haha.

 

Holy f*** man. I let you call him a 4th starter a couple times already, but enough is enough. So odd you'd choose FIP as the stat to prove your point. And yes I'm aware of his contract and that you have Mike Elias' beefy cock down your throat because he signed Gibson. I already addressed that here - https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10940-2023-Trade-Deadline?p=1725710#post1725710

 

Do I love Bassitt? No I don't. I was a bit skeptical of the signing at the time and would have preferred to go after Eovaldi. But - I understand the signing and why they chose to perhaps go the safer route instead of the high upside play like Eovaldi. He's gotten better every month he's been here and is an important part of this team. Sometimes players take time to adjust to a new environment/team. He isn't a 4th starter - stop suggesting he is.

 

I knew this would set you off. Chill. You don't take criticism of your opinions well eh?

[Spanky99]

Holy f*** man. I let you call him a 4th starter a couple times already, but enough is enough. So odd you'd choose FIP as the stat to prove your point. And yes I'm aware of his contract and that you have Mike Elias' beefy cock down your throat because he signed Gibson. I already addressed that here - https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10940-2023-Trade-Deadline?p=1725710#post1725710

 

Do I love Bassitt? No I don't. I was a bit skeptical of the signing at the time and would have preferred to go after Eovaldi. But - I understand the signing and why they chose to perhaps go the safer route instead of the high upside play like Eovaldi. He's gotten better every month he's been here and is an important part of this team. Sometimes players take time to adjust to a new environment/team. He isn't a 4th starter - stop suggesting he is.

 

I knew this would set you off. Chill. You don't take criticism of your opinions well eh?

 

At first, wasn't crazy about the Bassit contract but after the other contracts handed out this offseason, seems like a great signing. I know Bassit isn't sexy but he solidifies the rotation which is the most important thing. Kind of reminds me how the Jays under Atkins went out and signed Happ in 2016 after it looked like he figured things out at an older age. So definitely see value with Bassit if he continues this moving forward.

 

...

[jaysblue]

Holy f*** man. I let you call him a 4th starter a couple times already, but enough is enough. So odd you'd choose FIP as the stat to prove your point. And yes I'm aware of his contract and that you have Mike Elias' beefy cock down your throat because he signed Gibson. I already addressed that here - https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10940-2023-Trade-Deadline?p=1725710#post1725710

 

Do I love Bassitt? No I don't. I was a bit skeptical of the signing at the time and would have preferred to go after Eovaldi. But - I understand the signing and why they chose to perhaps go the safer route instead of the high upside play like Eovaldi. He's gotten better every month he's been here and is an important part of this team. Sometimes players take time to adjust to a new environment/team. He isn't a 4th starter - stop suggesting he is.

 

I knew this would set you off. Chill. You don't take criticism of your opinions well eh?

 

He's a backend No.3 starter/No. 4 starter. There isn't much of a difference but alright. You always get set-off when I criticize Atkins and this FO.

 

I don't mind Bassitt like I said. He hasn't been awful and has been solid. I'm not the biggest fan of the contract. If it ties up what the Jays can do financially, it will hurt them in 2024 and 2025 when they need to add more pieces to the roster. That is my concern. If money isn't an issue, then sure! Though if it prevents the Jays from making other additions, not good.

 

Eovaldi would have been a great add for sure obviously. I know you were a big advocate to sign him.

[jaysblue]

...

 

I guess I was being nice towards Atkins and giving him too much credit haha. Also, probably made that comment after his 9 inning shutout/complete game back at the beginning of May and also when he went 8 innings one game.

 

Has he continued that level moving forward? You can say he's been inconsistent since and has been meh. Again, nothing against Bassitt. He's been solid this season. Is he worth $60+ million over 3 years? My concern given his age and financial commitment, could end up being a bad signing. We'll see.

 

Regardless, he's a back-end No. 3 starter/No. 4 starter IMO.

[Olerud363]

Holy f*** man. I let you call him a 4th starter a couple times already, but enough is enough. So odd you'd choose FIP as the stat to prove your point. And yes I'm aware of his contract and that you have Mike Elias' beefy cock down your throat because he signed Gibson. I already addressed that here - https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10940-2023-Trade-Deadline?p=1725710#post1725710

 

Do I love Bassitt? No I don't. I was a bit skeptical of the signing at the time and would have preferred to go after Eovaldi. But - I understand the signing and why they chose to perhaps go the safer route instead of the high upside play like Eovaldi. He's gotten better every month he's been here and is an important part of this team. Sometimes players take time to adjust to a new environment/team. He isn't a 4th starter - stop suggesting he is.

 

I knew this would set you off. Chill. You don't take criticism of your opinions well eh?

 

 

You didn't address anything in your "Gibson is the best of the 10 million dollar guys", instead you basically proved the Elias is a great GM viewpoint.

 

Elias is a damn smart guy and while most of the 10 million guys aren't doing much, Elias and his team picked the best one. How is that evidence that Elias isn't a great GM?

 

So I guess the point is Jays development team sucks, they failed to really develop Orelvis Martinez into a top 10 prospect, failed to do a good job with their top 5 pick (Austin Martin who Orioles passed on), have struggled to get the best hitting prospect ever to be above replacement, have struggled to get anything out of 2nd level prospects like Biggio and Espinal, have struggled to get consistent performance out of a couple of bigger guys (Manoah and Kirk), have struggled to get a once top 20 pitching prospect healthy or performing (Pearson) etc. etc.

 

Orioles on the other hand, have been lights out drafting and developing not only their top 5 picks, but the late 1st round/compensation round picks like Gunnar Henderson.

 

Thus the Orioles can afford to take risks like signing a 10 million dollar guy because they have so many other young players with 6 or 7 years of control left and a competitive window that extends the better part of a decade, but the Jays need to sign Bassitt for 60 million, because their window is already practically over and they have to pay through the roof for guaranteed performance from their 4th starter at a last ditch effort for a playoff win, while Orioles are sitting pretty with their very best prospect not called up yet.

 

Orioles Suck! Elias Sucks! Good Job Jays!

[Stangstag]

He's a backend No.3 starter/No. 4 starter. There isn't much of a difference but alright. You always get set-off when I criticize Atkins and this FO.

 

I don't mind Bassitt like I said. He hasn't been awful and has been solid. I'm not the biggest fan of the contract. If it ties up what the Jays can do financially, it will hurt them in 2024 and 2025 when they need to add more pieces to the roster. That is my concern. If money isn't an issue, then sure! Though if it prevents the Jays from making other additions, not good.

 

Eovaldi would have been a great add for sure obviously. I know you were a big advocate to sign him.

 

I think it’s clear the front office values durability and innings over flamethrowers with high risk like Eovaldi. And 20 million isn’t outrageous for a mid-rotation arm. Guys like ERod, Jon Gray, Anibal Sanchez all signed for similar deals (albeit, closer to 15 million per). That’s just the going rate for a proven innings eater.

[Brownie19]

You didn't address anything in your "Gibson is the best of the 10 million dollar guys", instead you basically proved the Elias is a great GM viewpoint.

 

Elias is a damn smart guy and while most of the 10 million guys aren't doing much, Elias and his team picked the best one. How is that evidence that Elias isn't a great GM?

 

He's suggesting Jays GM is s*** because Bassitt isn't worth $20M. Should have signed Gibson to $10M deal like the O's did. O's are sooooo smart. My point is there were several options in the $8M-$15M range this offseason. Most of them suck balls this year. The probability of being able to sign one that didn't flop was really low. You can't just cherry pick one pitcher and say "see - Jays should have signed him - look at the results for that price" without acknowledging there's a higher probability of signing a lemon at the price point. Jay's couldn't afford a lemon.

 

I agree with you about the O's - that's not part of this discussion though.

[jaysblue]

He's suggesting Jays GM is s*** because Bassitt isn't worth $20M. Should have signed Gibson to $10M deal like the O's did. O's are sooooo smart. My point is there were several options in the $8M-$15M range this offseason. Most of them suck balls this year. The probability of being able to sign one that didn't flop was really low. You can't just cherry pick one pitcher and say "see - Jays should have signed him - look at the results for that price" without acknowledging there's a higher probability of signing a lemon at the price point. Jay's couldn't afford a lemon.

 

I agree with you about the O's - that's not part of this discussion though.

 

Where did I ever suggest Atkins is s***?

 

I've criticized him and also have praised him as well regarding FA signings/trades. I've never said he's s***. He's done a solid job and has put together a competitive team over the last couple of years and they should remain competitive.

 

Is Atkins incredible like you praise him to be? So far from 2021-2023, he hasn't taken this team to the next level. The Jays still remain just a team competing for the WC and they haven't won a Postseason series with this squad. He hasn't locked up core players like Bo, which leaves question marks for this team after 2025. The farm system hasn't developed players or pitchers that could be called up and step in. This team is already at the luxury tax threshold with the current roster. You and some other posters have a lovefest with Atkins for some reason where in your eyes he's been perfect and can't do any wrong. You defend every decision and move he makes.

[max silver]

He's suggesting Jays GM is s*** because Bassitt isn't worth $20M. Should have signed Gibson to $10M deal like the O's did. O's are sooooo smart. My point is there were several options in the $8M-$15M range this offseason. Most of them suck balls this year. The probability of being able to sign one that didn't flop was really low. You can't just cherry pick one pitcher and say "see - Jays should have signed him - look at the results for that price" without acknowledging there's a higher probability of signing a lemon at the price point. Jay's couldn't afford a lemon.

 

I agree with you about the O's - that's not part of this discussion though.

 

It's been reported on multiple Blue Jays broadcasts that the Jays offered Gibson the same $10 million contract but he chose to sign with the Orioles. Aside from overpaying relative to the competition a Gibson signing simply wasn't in the cards. There's little point to bemoaning how the front office didn't sign him because they made him a competitive offer that he chose to decline.

[metafour]

So I guess the point is Jays development team sucks, they failed to really develop Orelvis Martinez into a top 10 prospect, failed to do a good job with their top 5 pick (Austin Martin who Orioles passed on), have struggled to get the best hitting prospect ever to be above replacement, have struggled to get anything out of 2nd level prospects like Biggio and Espinal, have struggled to get consistent performance out of a couple of bigger guys (Manoah and Kirk), have struggled to get a once top 20 pitching prospect healthy or performing (Pearson) etc. etc.

 

Orioles on the other hand, have been lights out drafting and developing not only their top 5 picks, but the late 1st round/compensation round picks like Gunnar Henderson.

 

No offense big dawg, but you can play this game all day. The Orioles have certainly done well, but I can spin this around too:

 

1) Failed to develop DL Hall (not drafted by Elias, but he's been in their system the whole time).

2) Grayson Rodriguez is a complete who-knows. Looked good against the Jays anemic bats, but so did Pearson at times during his initial callup. Has a 6.09 ERA on the season. This was the #1 pitching prospect in the minors.

3) Gunnar Henderson is a hit, but what happened to their other 2nd round pick from that same draft (Kyle Stowers)? He's at -0.4 fWAR this season. Whoops.

4) Have they developed Jordan Westburg? Who knows yet.

5) 2021 5th overall pick Colton Cowser is at -0.4 fWAR hitting at 30 wRC+ after callup.

6) 2021 2nd round pick Connor Norby has a 101 wRC+ in AAA. Big yawn. He's a year younger than Davis Schneider.

7) 2021 2nd round pick Reed Trimble looks like a complete bust. Why no development? He has a 61 wRC+ as a 23 year old in High-A.

 

Subtract Rutschman and Holliday who were #1 overall picks (they SHOULD be great) and Henderson (no different than Bichette) and the picture scales back. Am I supposed to be impressed by their development of Jud Fabian and his 40% K-rate in AA?