Why Opposing Pitchers Have Figured Out the Blue Jays' Offense

The Blue Jays are trying just about everything to get their offense started.

They've tried being patient at the plate. They've tried attacking early in counts. They've shuffled the batting order and mixed-and-matched lineups based on matchups. Every team goes through offensive slumps, and for the Jays, those slumps haven’t been offset by enough winning stretches.

Through 91 games (entering play on Tuesday), the Blue Jays own a .304 on-base percentage and have drawn only 248 walks. Both figures rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball. Their .685 OPS also sits well below league average and explains why scoring opportunities have been so few and far between.

The Jays have seen the third-lowest number of pitches this season with 12,800. That is about 250 more than the Red Sox and 50 more than the Rays. The Dodgers, Cubs and Pirates have seen nearly 2,000 more pitches in their games, and all have about the same number of batted balls as the Jays.

In the last week alone, opposing starting pitchers have managed to work deep into games by throwing competitive pitches (often for strikes). When they have strayed from the zone, Jays hitters have followed. The result has been some lopsided scores.

Baseball is a hard game, but it is even more difficult when, as a team, you don’t follow a plan.

Data like release point, velocity, spin, bat speed and launch angle can be helpful for modern-day pitchers and batters, but just having the data doesn’t mean a player can execute.

Any advantage when it comes to counts and runners on base is valuable for an offense. Obviously, easier said than done.

Changing the order in search of a hot-hand can work, and it has a few times this season, but not for a prolonged stretch.

The Jays have lost their mojo largely because opponents have shifted their approach against them. Once an offense loses its edge, it starts to try a little harder and inevitably falters.

Trading half the lineup won’t help if the approach at the plate remains the same. Not being selective and not getting hitters' counts means opposing pitchers can continue to follow their game plans.

The team is hitting .186 with two strikes this season. That ranks second best in MLB. The problem is that they don’t get to two strikes all that often (and hitting under .200 isn’t great). When you include their MLB-leading 64% swing rate when down two strikes, that .186 doesn’t look any better.

In Monday night’s loss to the Giants, the Jays put 12 balls in play with the majority of those pitches on the fringes of the plate. As Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi pointed out: “tough spots to get to damage.”

The recent 29-inning scoreless streak wasn't simply the result of elite pitching. Opposing pitchers have been good, but the Jays have made them look exceptional.

Statcast data says the Jays own a 35.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 6.3 percent barrel rate this season, both of which rank in the lower tier of Major League Baseball. Their expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) sits at .298, almost identical to their actual production.

Another indicator that pitchers are dictating at-bats is Toronto's lack of impact contact. Despite putting 2,411 balls in play, the Blue Jays have produced just 151 barrels this season. Only Cleveland has fewer barrels among teams with a comparable number of batted balls.

Statcast defines a barrel as the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle, and those are the swings that typically produce extra-base hits and home runs. Without more barrels, the Jays won't be doing much damage.

Based on recent at-bats, it kind of feels like if the Jays were using bigger bats, they still wouldn't be barrelling up the ball.

Opposing teams have figured something out, and the blueprint is working over and over again.

Attack the zone. Avoid walks. And force Jays hitters to swing at pitcher-friendly pitches.

Follow that formula and weak contact follows.

The frustrating part for the Blue Jays is that the issue isn't solely about contact. They rank among the tougher teams in baseball to strike out, but avoiding strikeouts only matters if the ball is being hit hard. Too many of Toronto's balls in play have resulted in routine outs rather than hitting them where they ain't.

Major league hitters don’t tend to have holes in their swings. Their hitting is analyzed in every game and every at-bat.

It is simple, as an outsider, to say that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should lay off every outside pitch. You aren't going to ask Ernie Clement or Kazuma Okamoto to stop expanding their zones. Or tell Daulton Varsho that he should stop chasing pitches above the zone and suggest to Andrés Giménez to improve his bat speed. The problem is that pitchers are constantly adjusting as well.

A recommitment to controlling at-bats, forcing pitchers into hitter’s counts and refusing to expand the strike zone may not generate immediate results, but it would represent a step toward building an offensive identity.

If you reverse the perspective and think about how teams have adjusted to Kevin Gausman, perhaps there are some lessons to be learned there.

Teams that are effective against Gausman tend to identify his put-away pitch, the splitter, and hunt the fastball or slider. When Gausman isn’t executing with his splitter by keeping it around the zone, opposing lineups have found success.   

The Blue Jays don't need a complete overhaul.

They need opposing pitchers to stop feeling comfortable. They need the pitch counts of starters to be above 40 in the third inning.

They need those starters to leave games after five innings instead of seven.

They need more hitter's counts, more traffic on the bases and more opportunities to swing at pitches they can actually drive.

Most importantly, they need to stop helping opposing pitchers execute their game plans.

Until that changes, no lineup shuffle, hot streak or trade deadline addition will solve what ails this offense.

The solution isn't hidden in the batting order.

It's keeping opposing pitchers honest and waiting for a mistake they can actually drive.

Stats updated prior to games on July 7.