Positional Adjustments

[connorp]

defense thread connor, if he has time im sure we could get into an offense thread also

 

The nuances of 1b will take longer to cover. These are snipe posts for now. Also, others blew off course. Selective enforcement

[John_Havok]

The nuances of 1b will take longer to cover. These are snipe posts for now. Also, others blew off course. Selective enforcement

 

Naw, just type out the novella. I have further stuff on 1b too, just want you to cover yours in case mine is a lot of duplication

[Terminator]

Tom Tango >>>> Roy Firestone

 

Once again the BJMB bests the wretched hive of scum and villainy known as Orioles Hangout.

[Terminator]

Vlad's defensive OAA has really tanked this year.

 

He's horrible at plays in (-4) and to his right (-6), but fine to his left (0) or going back (-1).

 

On the plays in or to the right, does that have to do with his range? Or could the numbers to his right be tanking because his throws to the pitcher bad? Or both?

 

Could this be remedied by positioning him a little more to the right and in? Or would that not necessarily help.

[jaysblue]

I have a copy and read The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. Welcome to the board and thanks for sharing your insights on here Tom Tango!

[tangotiger]

Vlad's defensive OAA has really tanked this year.

 

He's horrible at plays in (-4) and to his right (-6), but fine to his left (0) or going back (-1).

 

On the plays in or to the right, does that have to do with his range? Or could the numbers to his right be tanking because his throws to the pitcher bad? Or both?

 

Could this be remedied by positioning him a little more to the right and in? Or would that not necessarily help.

 

All good questions, and I haven't looked at his plays specifically.

 

1B is actually more difficult to model because of the option to run or throw and the dependence on the pitcher covering. That said, Christian Walker always comes out on top every season, so it must be doing something right.

[tangotiger]

I have a copy and read The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. Welcome to the board and thanks for sharing your insights on here Tom Tango!

 

Thank you kindly for your support!

[tangotiger]

Then, maybe he can clear up my gripe on wRC+ that was made recently.

 

Say Player A plays for the Rockies. Say he has reverse extreme splits and hits ways better on the road and bad at home. Don’t you think it would be disingenuous to negatively yield down the runs he creates based on park factor?

 

I'll create a separate thread for batting.

[TheHurl]

Not sure what sorcery brought you to our board. i like to think it's our advanced analytical minds or that you have admired us from afar since our groundbreaking, but now defunct https://www.breakingblue.ca/ launched in 2015, brought you here. No matter the reason it is great having one of the great baseball minds posting here.

[tangotiger]

Not sure what sorcery brought you to our board. i like to think it's our advanced analytical minds or that you have admired us from afar since our groundbreaking, but now defunct https://www.breakingblue.ca/ launched in 2015, brought you here. No matter the reason it is great having one of the great baseball minds posting here.

 

That is kind of you to say thank you!

 

I used to spend alot of time at https://battersbox.ca/ (I still have admin access there.) I'm from Montreal, for those that don't know.

 

I came here because every now and then I google my name and Google directed me to a 425 (!) page thread. So, you can thank or blame Sergey and Larry.

[John_Havok]

dang, all i get when googling my name is some guy who does black light art with naked women.

 

Actually, that's not bad.

[Laika]

Spanky summoned Tom Tango.

[L54]

Waaaay cooler than having Roy Firestone on the board

[connorp]

Who did Roy Firestone mess with by calling him the wrong name repeatedly? That just came to mind.

[max silver]

Will there be a Statcast based outfield throwing metric introduced at some point in the future? The range only metric is nice, but unfortunately it doesn't portray a complete measure of outfield defence when throwing isn't part of the equation.

 

On a similar note, do you envision a Statcast based WAR metric eventually being introduced? Perhaps a baserunning metric as well?

[tangotiger]

Will there be a Statcast based outfield throwing metric introduced at some point in the future? The range only metric is nice, but unfortunately it doesn't portray a complete measure of outfield defence when throwing isn't part of the equation.

 

 

Tomorrow. Literally, tomorrow morning.

[tangotiger]

Perhaps a baserunning metric as well?

 

Tomorrow morning as well.

[tangotiger]

 

On a similar note, do you envision a Statcast based WAR metric eventually being introduced?

 

While not an objective, it's an eventuality. All the pieces are there, and it's just a matter of merging them properly. I'd like to say this will be done in the off-season. But we have so many other things to do as well.

[max silver]

Tomorrow. Literally, tomorrow morning.

 

Tomorrow morning as well.

 

Wow those are both great bits of news, I am very much looking forward to checking out these new metrics tomorrow morning.

[tangotiger]

Wow those are both great bits of news, I am very much looking forward to checking out these new metrics tomorrow morning.

 

I can tell you that from 2016-2023, the top Jays arm was Lourdes, while the best baserunner (excluding steal attempts) was Pillar. The worst baserunner was Smoak.

[Jimcanuck]

Go to my last post about Varsho. We are simply evaluating each play, one at a time. Each play gets a plus/minus. And we add those up. It's really as simple as it sounds.

 

So doesn't consider the difficulty of the play. Probably comes out in the wash, mostly. Although some players make highlight reel plays more often than others. Kiermaier comes to mind.

 

Yet on broadcasts I hear references to play difficulty. So a measure of difficulty is available and could be integrated? Tomorrow morning? lol

[Captain_Obvious]

So doesn't consider the difficulty of the play. Probably comes out in the wash, mostly. Although some players make highlight reel plays more often than others. Kiermaier comes to mind.

 

Yet on broadcasts I hear references to play difficulty. So a measure of difficulty is available and could be integrated?

 

The amount of plus/minus depends on difficulty.

[Jimcanuck]

The amount of plus/minus depends on difficulty.

 

I read it as +1 or -1, regardless of difficulty

 

Unfortunately, we are not tagging "lost in sun" or "hit the catwalk" in our play events. If he has two of them, then he gets minus 2 OAA, if they were otherwise routine plays.

[tangotiger]

So doesn't consider the difficulty of the play. Probably comes out in the wash, mostly. Although some players make highlight reel plays more often than others. Kiermaier comes to mind.

 

Yet on broadcasts I hear references to play difficulty. So a measure of difficulty is available and could be integrated? Tomorrow morning? lol

 

It DOES consider the difficulty of the play. The longer it's in the air, the easier the play. The more the fielder has to run, the harder the play.

[tangotiger]

I read it as +1 or -1, regardless of difficulty

 

If it's a 99% play, that's -0.99 for a hit or error and +.01 for the out.

 

If it's a 20% play, that's -.20 for the hit and +.80 for the out.

[Captain_Obvious]

I read it as +1 or -1, regardless of difficulty

 

Routine plays (near 100% outs made) will result in 1 OAA loss when not made.

[Jimcanuck]

If it's a 99% play, that's -0.99 for a hit or error and +.01 for the out.

 

If it's a 20% play, that's -.20 for the hit and +.80 for the out.

 

Ah understood, so a linear scale

[max silver]

I can tell you that from 2016-2023, the top Jays arm was Lourdes, while the best baserunner (excluding steal attempts) was Pillar. The worst baserunner was Smoak.

 

So the baserunning metric will only be measuring baserunning effects during balls in play and not during steal attempts?

[tangotiger]

So the baserunning metric will only be measuring baserunning effects during balls in play and not during steal attempts?

 

Right. There's nothing much more to stealing than a straight SB, CS.

[max silver]

Right. There's nothing much more to stealing than a straight SB, CS.

 

What does the calculation look like for calculating base stealing runs? Is it something really simple like =/- 0.25 runs based on failure or success?