2023 MLB Draft

[Daniel Labude]

It’s probably just the fact they only have 2 picks in the top 89, whereas Seattle has 5 in the top 92, and 3 in the top 30.

 

I’m not overly excited to see the Jays crappy bonus pool they can’t do very much with

 

Definitely have to hit on the 1st round pick

[Key22]

It's hard to get excited about the draft when our pick is in the bottom 1/3 - we don't have a second-rounder and our farm looks pretty bad - and other AL East teams hit more in getting high-quality players. Austin Martin was the big hype prospect "can't believe he fell to the Jays" - "Can't-miss hitter" "best bat in the draft class" hype hype hype.

 

Nate Pearson "100Mph best arm in the draft" - "can't miss ace of a future rotation" "Best prospect in baseball" -

 

Vlad Jr. - A bit unfair as he did finish 2nd in MVP but that was a while ago now and now he's a league-average player. "Can't-miss Hall of Farmer with the chance to be the greatest hitter in the history of major league baseball" to mediocrity in 3 years.

 

Whoever scouted Carlos Delgado/Roy Halladay/Dave Steib/David Wells/Jimmy Key/Jeff Kent/ Tony Fernandez/Fred McGriff/Michael Young (shoot the guy who traded him for the drug dealing pitcher) - rehire this scouting team - pay them the $14 million you're paying Vladdy. Or you know just hire the Tampa Bay Rays scouting and player development department - their coaching staff from Cash on down - pay them 10 times their current salary - now THAT would be money well spent.

[Laika]

Keith Law’s 2023 MLB Mock Draft 2.0: First round changes as intel increases closer to draft

Keith Law

Jun 20, 2023

31

 

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Now we’re just 19 days from the 2023 MLB Draft, or at least the first day thereof, which will take place in Seattle on the evening of July 9. There are, as usual, a lot more rumors out there about which teams are on which players. I don’t pretend to have any more clarity at the first pick and I don’t think we will know for sure until shortly before the draft begins. The Pirates will probably consider different players and their bonus demands, and decide whether they want to go with the best player or try to save to draft additional first-round talents when they pick again.

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates – Dylan Crews, OF, LSU

I’m sticking with this one, not because I think it’s a mortal lock, but because any other name here would be a straight-up guess. We all know they’ve looked at Crews, Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, and Max Clark at the very least, and none of those would truly be a surprise, although my instinct says they won’t go with a pitcher when there are several equivalent position players available. It could also just come down to money, as the Pirates’ draft from 2021, where they went under slot with Henry Davis to sign three high-ceiling high school guys, looks really strong right now.

 

2. Washington Nationals – Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU

I think this is Skenes or Crews. If Crews is here, I believe the Nats would just take him; Mike Rizzo didn’t pass on Strasburg or Harper in their drafts, and took Anthony Rendon, who came into his draft year as the likely No. 1 pick before hurting his shoulder, in 2011. Crews is this year’s version of that, the consensus top prospect, on everyone’s radar for three years, and someone who could impact the big-league club very quickly.

 

 

3. Detroit Tigers – Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community High

This is where we could start to see some sort of shake-up; the Tigers are certainly on Crews or Skenes, and Langford as well, but I’ve heard them with Clark, Walker Jenkins, and even a little with Kyle Teel, although that last one might be more about drafting for need than going best player available (BPA).

 

4. Texas Rangers – Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick High (Southport, N.C.)

I’m betting this is Jenkins or Clark. If both are here, I’m not 100 percent sure which way they’d go. Then the question becomes whether they can shave enough to go way over slot with their next pick, which isn’t until the fourth round, just like last year.

 

5. Minnesota Twins – Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

Same story as last time around, where folks expect the Twins to go college over high school, so names like Kyle Teel and Jacob Gonzalez come up, although if they’re really that driven to go for a college bat, shouldn’t we be hearing names like Matt Shaw and Tommy Troy who’ve performed and have excellent batted-ball data too?

 

6. Oakland A’s – Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

I’ve heard they prefer a hitter, which would probably be Teel or one of that big ol’ group of college infielders, including Gonzalez, Jacob Wilson, Shaw, and Troy. I know they’ve scouted Noble Meyer pretty heavily, though.

 

7. Cincinnati Reds – Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

I keep hearing this is Teel, Lowder, or Chase Dollander. I don’t think they’d do Meyer here, although they’ve also seen him a lot.

 

8. Kansas City Royals – Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) High

I’ve heard this one a ton recently, even though a high school catcher in the top 10 is a pretty risky move. I’ve also heard the Royals with Wilson, Gonzalez, and Meyer.

 

9. Colorado Rockies – Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

Word is the Rockies would probably take the best college pitcher available here, which could be Dollander, Lowder, maybe even Joe Whitman if you really value the lefthandedness. They’d love Walker Jenkins and they’re in on Meyer.

 

10. Miami Marlins – Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High (Portland, Ore.)

Meyer’s market is weird — he’s got interest from 6 through 10, but it seems like below this he might not be in play until 15 or even until closer to 20, so the Marlins could try to use that as leverage to get him under slot if he gets to this pick, arguing that if he doesn’t sign here, he’ll get much less somewhere else. That’s a bit speculative because it assumes no team in the 11-15ish range is lying in the weeds on him, but that’s how the board looks right now. I’ve heard the Marlins absolutely all over the place, including interest in Shaw, Teel, and Colin Houck.

 

11. Los Angeles Angels – Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt

The Angels have been linked a lot to some high school bats like Houck and Eldridge, but some folks think they’ll take a college hitter to try to get help to the majors sooner, which could be Bradfield, one of the best defenders in the class, or Brayden Taylor.

 

12. Arizona Diamondbacks – Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

Arizona’s been linked to Houck and a group of those college bats who will probably fly off the board in the 11-15 range, like Taylor, Shaw, and Tommy Troy.

 

13. Chicago Cubs – Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High (Lilburn, Ga.)

Houck and Aidan Miller apparently had great workouts for the Cubs recently, adding their names to a mix that also includes that same college hitter group, notably Shaw and Troy.

 

14. Boston Red Sox – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

Shaw is one of the best hitters in the college class, with hard contact and power, but needs to play somewhere other than shortstop. He’s one of many college bats I’ve heard linked to Boston, along with Troy and Taylor, all of whom are good batted-ball data guys as well as hitters scouts believe will continue to hit in pro ball.

 

15. Chicago White Sox – Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

The White Sox have been linked heavily to Morales and Taylor in the last few weeks, with a heavy presence at TCU’s regional and a strong workout with Morales after that.

 

16. San Francisco Giants – Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (Co.) High

This link has come up at least three different times for me in the last week, as the Giants have been heavy at Martin’s games and seem to be the high mark for the 19-year-old. If they end up going college instead, they’d be on Bradfield or Gonzalez.

 

17. Baltimore Orioles – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.)

This seems like the floor for the 17-year-old Nimmala, who is one of the draft’s youngest players and has shown strong exit velocities, two things the Orioles definitely value in the draft. I’ve heard them on Bryce Eldridge, another big EV guy, and I think they’d be a player for Brock Wilken if those high school bats were gone. As usual, no word around them taking a pitcher in the first.

 

18. Milwaukee Brewers – Tommy Troy, SS/3B, Stanford

There are too many good college bats in the first round this year and not enough landing spots for them in the top 15, so three or four are going to end up in the second half of the round and the teams that land them will be over the moon. I could see Troy, Gonzalez, or maybe even Shaw getting here.

 

19. Tampa Bay Rays – Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

It seems like Gonzalez is in the mix for a lot of teams but perhaps nobody’s top choice above this, which might make him a victim of that surfeit of good college bats. Taylor or Wilken would fit here, with Wilken making a very big late push starting in the ACC tournament to overcome questions about his so-so performance in the regular season.

 

20. Toronto Blue Jays – Aidan Miller, 3B, JW Mitchell High (Trinity, Fla.)

Miller had a rough spring due to a broken hamate bone but has had some strong workouts for clubs this month now that he’s recovered. I also think the Blue Jays represent a floor for several of those college bats who might slip out of the top 15 because of the crowded class, so maybe they go after a Wilken or Gonzalez.

 

21. St. Louis Cardinals – Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner High (Drexel Hill, Pa.)

I know the Cardinals were one of the few teams still on McGonigle late in his season, and the Cardinals have certainly had more success with high school hitters in the first round (Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson) than other categories of players.

 

22. Seattle Mariners – Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

The logic here is the same, as folks expect Seattle to mix up the players they take here and with their two extra picks right after the first round proper ends, probably with one college bat and then a couple of high school guys. Schanuel doesn’t have the positional value or athleticism of the college hitters I’ve got going ahead of him, but he is the only guy who could argue his on-field performance was close to Crews’ this spring.

 

23. Cleveland Guardians – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

I have heard Wilson going in the top 10, maybe to Minnesota or Kansas City, and I may be introducing some of my own bias here as I don’t think Wilson lines up very well against many of those other college hitters, nearly all of whom hit the ball harder than he does. Cleveland loves hitters who rarely punch out, and they’d probably be in the mix for Schanuel and Wilken as well.

 

24. Atlanta Braves – Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

This is more about opportunism, as Wilken would be great value at the spot. In a draft that’s very heavy on position players, I’d be a little surprised if Atlanta took a pitcher, given that their farm system right now is basically three pitchers in a trenchcoat.

 

25. San Diego Padres – Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison High (Vienna, Va.)

When in doubt, look for the highest-upside guy left on the board, at least where A.J. Preller & company are concerned. I’m betting that’s a high school hitter, although I think it’ll be a guy with tools/upside like Eldridge, Dillon Head, or even a tough sign like Roch Cholowsky, rather than a more polished player with a lower ceiling like McGonigle or Colt Emerson.

 

26. New York Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas High (Cortlandt, N.Y.)

The Yanks have been very heavy at Stafura’s games this spring and they’re linked to him as strongly as any team picking after the Giants is linked to any one player. I’ve also heard them on Tai Peete and Eldridge.

 

27. Philadelphia Phillies – Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State

The Phillies have gone high school in the first round in each of the last three years, but I would bet they’d be more inclined to go college at this point after a World Series run last year, as the team needs help in the shorter term, whether it’s from prospects reaching the majors or becoming trade pieces. Whitman is the only lefty I have going in the first round, which would be the latest ever for the first left-handed pitcher to come off the board.

 

28. Houston Astros – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

Waldrep’s got one of the best pitches in the draft in his splitter, but he hasn’t had the results to match, so he’s clearly sliding. I’ve heard the Astros are hoping Eldridge gets to them.

 

29. Seattle Mariners – Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor (Ill.) Community High

30. Seattle Mariners – Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian High (Sharpsburg, Ga.)

Two more high school names I’ve heard with the Mariners, although, to be fair, they’re going to be linked to just about every high school hitter who might be a first-round talent, because they have the picks and the money to go after those guys.

[Pendleton]

[Spanky99]

 

I watched this today on MLBN, on for rest of the week I think, kinda cool. Save for Harold.

[Spanky99]

BA's latest mock 3.0...

 

1. Pirates — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State

 

I’m sure the Pirates are still kicking the tires on a number of different options for the top spot. Given how they’ve operated in the past that shouldn’t be a surprise. There are scouts in the industry who think Wyatt Langford is quite close in talent to Crews, and he has the SEC production to back it up as well. Cases can also be made for both the prep outfielders, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. Still, I don’t feel confident enough in any of those options to pull the trigger on a player not named Crews. He has the tools, he has the performance, he has some of the best exit velocities in the class, he has a center field profile and he’s got an extremely advanced offensive approach. There’s not much to critique with him.

 

2. Nationals — Paul Skenes, RHP, Louisiana State

 

Skenes is coming off a dominant complete game, 12-strikeout effort against Tulane in the regionals, and he was also named a Golden Spikes Award finalist, alongside Crews and Florida two-way player and 2024 prospect Jac Caglianone. In the scenario where the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes and the Nationals are picking between the LSU duo, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them take Skenes. He’s now up to 179 strikeouts on the season, with a 1.90 ERA, 47.2% strikeout rate and an opposing OPS of just .472. He needs 24 more strikeouts to break Ben McDonald’s single-season strikeout record with LSU. McDonald struck out 202 batters in 152.1 innings back in 1989. He’s on pace to do it with just over 13 more innings, which could be in as few as two starts. He’s got a real chance if LSU advances through super regionals against Kentucky this weekend.

 

3. Tigers — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

 

Langford has been excellent all season when he’s been on the field for Florida. He had a strong regional showing last weekend and is hitting .387/.511/.799 with 18 home runs, 24 doubles and a strong 18.9% walk rate. Perhaps the biggest true separator between Langford and Crews is the additional prep history teams have of Crews and one full season of SEC performance data. Outside of that it’s similar. If you want a bit more pure speed and a tick more raw power, you could lean Langford, and if you want the center field profile and longer track record go Crews. Either way Detroit is getting an impact player.

 

4. Rangers — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C.

 

Picks No. 3 and 4 are flipped from our previous mock draft, and I think the Rangers would be quite happy in this scenario with their pick of the elite high school players in the class. Jenkins has physicality, a beautiful lefthanded swing and a chance for plus tools in the two most important categories: hit and power. He could go off the board at any spot in front of this and it wouldn’t surprise me, but if he fell further than this … that would be a bit more surprising. At the same time, the Rangers are clearly not afraid to go off the board with an unconventional and surprising pick at the top of the draft.

 

5. Twins — Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS

 

It’s easiest to place Clark here with the Twins in this scenario. I think they might prefer to get Jenkins in this spot, but that’s more of a guess on my part given some of the feedback on how heavily they have scouted Jenkins this spring. And just because there’s a perceived consensus top five doesn’t mean someone like Rhett Lowder, Kyle Teel, Chase Dollander, Noble Meyer or someone else couldn’t sneak into this range given the right deal.

 

6. A's — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

 

Lowder keeps posting every single week and he keeps sneaking up draft boards. There are teams who now view him ahead of Chase Dollander simply because he’s given them more confidence in his outings each week than Dollander has. Perhaps this is nonsensical to say about a pitching prospect, but Lowder doesn’t have that much risk in his profile and given the state of the A’s, perhaps they could do with a bit of safety. Lowder isn’t some vanilla strike-thrower and college performer, either. He has legitimate stuff, was up to 97 last weekend, sat 94 and has utterly dominated hitters all spring: He has a 1.77 ERA, 31.6% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate and .207 opposing average.

 

7. Reds — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

 

Like Lowder, Teel is another college performer who is pushing up boards at a valuable demographic. It’s quite a fall off at the position in the college ranks after Teel, and he’s mashed all season with excellent athleticism and plus arm strength. He is hitting .423/.487/.690 with 13 home runs, 25 doubles, a 12% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. He’s getting a lot of buzz around this part of the draft and it sounds like both the Reds and A’s might be interested.

 

8. Royals — Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.

 

Meyer seems like the clear-cut top prep pitching prospect in the class, and he has been getting plenty of attention from teams inside the top 10 down the stretch. You could make a fairly simple case that he has the highest pure upside of any pitcher in this class outside of Paul Skenes. It’s an elite fastball/slider combination packed onto an ideal pitcher’s frame to go with standout athleticism and advanced feel to pitch. He more than fits on talent in this spot even though the industry is skeptical of the high school righthander profile inside the top 10—this would make Meyer just the third such player in the last five years, joining Carter Stewart (Braves, 2018) and Jackson Jobe (Tigers, 2021)

 

9. Rockies — Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

 

The ascension of both Lowder and Teel has pushed Wilson down the board in this mock. There will certainly be some skepticism about Wilson’s impact potential, but there are teams who view him as a no-doubt shortstop who has an outlier skill in his pure hitting ability. In 697 career plate appearances with Grand Canyon, Wilson struck out just 31 times—a 4.4% rate. Another surging college hitter like Brayden Taylor could potentially be interesting here as well.

 

10. Marlins — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

 

Yes, the swing is a bit unorthodox, but Gonzalez has tools, profiles on the left side of the infield and is a lefthanded hitter with a three-year performance track record in the SEC. He’s a career .319/.427/.561 hitter with 40 home runs in 186 games with the Rebels, and he’s always had a keen eye for the strike zone as well. He has never posted a walk rate lower than 12% and he’s never posted a strikeout rate higher than 11.1%. Matt Shaw is another name who might fit.

 

11. Angels — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

 

There’s no way the Angels expected Dollander to be an option for the 11th pick of the draft at the start of the season, but his inconsistencies and struggles—particularly in the first inning of games—have kept him sliding down boards. There’s a limit to how far a talent like his will fall as long as he keeps flashing the stuff that made him the top pitcher in the class to start the year in the first place, and the Angels are the beneficiaries in this scenario with better 2023 performers going in front of them.

 

12. D-backs — Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Ga.

 

Like all the high school shortstops in this mock, Houck has a fairly wide range of outcomes and Arizona feels like one of the higher-end outcomes. It does sound like the D-backs have been in pretty heavy on Houck this spring and would consider him with this pick. He’s a well-rounded athlete with no glaring holes in his game, solid hitting ability, power, speed and defensive chops on the left side of the infield.

 

13. Cubs — Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass.

 

Like Meyer, White had plenty of attention with teams picking inside the top 10, but an erratic final start of the season could have him wind up somewhere in the middle of the first round instead of the top third. There are a number of teams who seem to be excited about White and the Cubs are one of them, though this range of the draft also has a number of interesting bats on the board. Aidan Miller is another name that’s interesting here.

 

14. Red Sox — Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

 

Shaw has gained some steam and feels like a fit in the 10-15 range on the board. He’s likely not a shortstop at the next level but he hits and hits for power. He’s now had back-to-back seasons with 20-plus home runs and he is now the Maryland program leader in career home runs. The Red Sox have been one of the teams linked with him.

 

15. White Sox — Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

 

This was the pick in the last mock for the White Sox and I am sticking with it again considering how well he played down the stretch, highlighted by a 4-for-5 game with two home runs against Louisiana-Lafayette in the Coral Gables Regional. He finished the year with a .408/.475/.713 slash line with 20 home runs and 13 doubles. Morales has some swing-and-miss questions, but with huge power, and his overall production with Miami in three years is impressive.

 

16. Giants — Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (Colo.) HS

 

The Giants have been tied to a few players at this spot, and it has mostly been hitters that I’ve heard about. One is Stanford third baseman Tommy Troy, but another is Walker Martin, who just turned in one of the loudest high school seasons in the country. He was among the nation’s leaders in home runs, and yes he plays in Colorado where the ball flies just a bit better, but he is also a tremendous athlete with a clean lefthanded swing, good speed and a natural ability to use all fields. Bryce Eldridge could be another fit here.

 

17. Orioles — Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian

 

This feels like the lower end of outcomes for Taylor, who slumped in the middle parts of the season, but has been on a tear lately. He has one of the better offensive approaches you’ll find in the class, with a solid ability to hit for power to the pull side. His biggest critique entering the season was that he didn’t have enough impact for a third baseman, but he’s quietly been an excellent home run producer throughout his career, with 48 career home runs, including 23 this season. I would not be surprised to see Taylor off the board inside the top 10 picks. Bryce Eldridge could make some sense with the Orioles as well.

 

18. Brewers — Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt

 

Similar to Taylor in the pick in front of this spot, this feels like one of the lower potential outcomes for Bradfield Jr. He sounds like he has a good chance to go inside the top 15 picks, with a few teams interested in the back of the top 10 as well, but in this scenario, with a few high school pitchers and high school shortstops going ahead, he falls to the Brewers—who have had a few talented players fall to their picks in the middle of the first round in recent years. The Brewers have plenty of talented center fielders, but Bradfield Jr. would probably be the best defender in the entire organization right now, as an 80-grade runner and 80-grade defender.

 

19. Rays — Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford

 

Troy fits the theme of the middle of this first round mock: talented college hitters with a strong combination of overall offensive track record and late-season highlights in front of big crowds of decision makers. Troy offers some defensive versatility and is praised for his natural hitting ability. He has hit .409/.487/.735 with a career-high 17 home runs—including a handful of shockingly well-hit homers to the pull side last weekend. Colt Emerson is an interesting name for Tampa Bay as well. The Rays are always a tricky team for me to ID in these mocks (though we’re solidly in the range where it’s tricky for everyone).

 

20. Blue Jays — Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

 

Schanuel finished the season with a ridiculous .444/.612/.864 slash line, with 19 home runs, 18 doubles, a 24.6% walk rate and a 4.4% strikeout rate. He has a special combination of pure bat-to-ball skills, pitch recognition and solid power. He was one of the best hitters in the country all season and should be an appealing option for a number of teams.

 

21. Cardinals — Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

 

Waldrep could wind up pushing higher than this, especially if he has a few more loud starts like he did in last weekend’s regional. He went seven innings and struck out 12 against Connecticut on Sunday and is tied for third among Division I pitchers with 129 total strikeouts on the season—behind only Paul Skenes and Stanford’s Quinn Mathews.

 

22. Mariners — Alexander Clemmey, LHP, Bishop Hendricken HS, Warwick, R.I.

 

One of the buzziest names in this edition of the mock draft is Clemmey, who has an extremely wide range of potential landing spots, but a large number of teams who think he is much closer to the talent of Thomas White than current draft boards might suggest. He has a projectable 6-foot-6 frame, will be 17 on draft day and touches 98 from the left side with a breaking ball that flashes plus. The Mariners are a team that may be interested and they have the pick volume that could allow them to feel more comfortable with a high-risk profile like Clemmey—who also comes with significant upside.

 

23. Guardians — Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, Dover, Fla.

 

Nimmala could be off the board long before this selection, but he checks a lot of boxes for the sort of player that Cleveland targets and it has reportedly been heavy on him this spring. He’s one of the youngest players in the class and also has more power upside than many of the prep hitters Cleveland has targeted in recent years.

 

24. Braves — George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep HS, Miami

 

I’ve been hearing the Braves linked with a number of high school hitting profiles recently, and Lombard Jr. is one of them that seems to come up a good bit. They could also be in on Walker Martin if he’s still available. Both these profiles make some sense for an Atlanta system that continues to pump out big league pitchers, but could use an infusion of high-upside hitting talent.

 

25. Padres — Chase Davis, OF, Arizona

 

Davis is coming off a career year where he’s hit .362/.489/.742 with 21 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He significantly improved his contact rate, which was the biggest question in his profile entering the year, and pairs production with excellent underlying batted ball data and impressive traditional tools. The Padres had a ton of heat in to see him at the Pac-12 tournament, where he went 6-for-17 (.353) with a pair of home runs and was named tournament MVP.

 

26. Yankees — Samuel Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS, Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.

 

The Yankees being very in on Stafura seems like one of the worst-kept secrets in the industry at this point. He’s consistently linked to them here in the back of the first round. If I thought the Anthony Volpe comparisons for Stafura were good earlier this spring, they would be even more fun after this pick. Stafura can pick it, he has good hitting chops and he’s added more strength and speed this spring.

 

27. Phillies — Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS

 

Mitchell gets a lot of buzz in the 10-20 range, but there are also more than 10 players who I could say the same about and the high school catcher demographic is one that I wouldn’t be surprised to see slip down the board a bit on draft day. Mitchell has uncommon lefthanded power for the position at the high school level, with a huge arm to go with it.

 

28. Astros — Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS

 

The Astros also sound like one of the teams who are on Stafura, but if the Yankees like him as much as we think, he’s not getting here. Velazquez is another player linked to the Astros, and he has some of the most exciting hit and power tools in the prep class, even if he’s a risk to move off of catcher.

 

29. Mariners — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

Wilken has some of the best raw power in the country and also significantly improved his walk rate this spring as a middle-of-the-lineup masher for one of the most talented teams in the country. He’s hit .353/.517/.805 with 27 home runs and should have potential landing spots throughout the second half of the first round.

 

30. Mariners — Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS, New Concord, Ohio

 

This gives the Mariners a high-octane arm, a powerful college slugger and a middle-of-the-diamond high school profile with excellent pure hitting ability and a well-rounded tool set with their first three picks. Emerson’s hit tool is highly regarded in the industry and he should be a fine defensive shortstop as well.

 

31. Rays — Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian Academy HS, Kissimmee, Fla.

 

Soto has a ton of attention in the 20s, but I couldn’t find a spot for him in this iteration. It’s not uncommon for high school pitchers to fall a bit and still get an overslot deal, and that’s the thinking with this selection. There are a few teams with great pitching development track records and the Rays would be near the top of that list. Soto’s excellent pure stuff + Tampa Bay’s player development group is a fun combination.

 

32. Mets — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Penn.

 

It feels a bit shocking to have McGonigle this far down in the draft considering his reputation as one of the best pure hitters in the class, but it’s a competitive and deep high school shortstop class and someone of that pool is going to last a bit longer than we expect. In this scenario the Mets are the beneficiaries and he has some traits the organization might like.

 

33. Brewers — Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS, New Port Richey, Fla.

 

It’s been tough to assess Miller’s market to this point, and in this iteration I have him falling to the supplemental round with the assumption of an overslot deal. He’s got traction as high as the 10-15 range. Miller has lightning-quick bat speed and a chance for plus power.

 

34. Twins — Eric Bitonti, SS/3B, Aquinas HS, San Bernardino, Calif.

 

Bitonti is a polarizing profile but he has tantalizing upside potential with a massive, 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame and plus power. He is also one of the youngest players in the class and doesn’t turn 18 until November.

 

35. Marlins — Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech

 

This mock places the Marlins with a pair of performing, up-the-middle college hitters with well-rounded offensive profiles. Hurley hit .320/.414/.713 with 17 home runs and has impressive exit velocity data with the tools to play all three outfield positions.

 

36. Dodgers — Jonny Farmelo, OF, Westfield HS, Chantilly, Va.

 

Farmelo is a speedy center fielder with a quick and compact lefthanded swing and more power than you might expect. He has a well-rounded profile and has a chance to be an above-average hitter and plus defender.

 

Five players who just missed:

 

Adrian Santana, SS, Doral (Fla.) Academy

Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS, Flossmoor, Ill.

Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B, Madison HS, Vienna, Va.

Cameron Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia

 

This is who they had us taking in 2.0...

 

20. Blue Jays — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Pa.

 

McGonigle could make a lot of sense for Toronto and he especially fits in this spot after seeing Cole Young go to the Mariners with the 21st overall pick a year ago. The two share a lot in common and while McGonigle might have to move off shortstop and might not have massive power, he’s one of the best pure hitters in the class.

[Pendleton]

[Spanky99]

This combine is a must watch if your into spects, running through offensive drills(yesterday, moonshots for days), defensive drills today the tools are so loud in these kids, a 100MPH across the diamond, 102 MPH from the outfield, it's bonkers to me, lol.

[Spanky99]

Has 2 kids from the same school ever gone 1-2 in the draft before, looking at most mocks it seems these 2 guys are getting popped from LSU...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-mock-draft-june-22?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[Jonn]

So I'm curious did they just start doing an MLB Draft Combine this year? I swear I had never heard of one before.

[jaysblue]

Jays will draft Yohandy Morales

[Spanky99]

So I'm curious did they just start doing an MLB Draft Combine this year? I swear I had never heard of one before.

 

Last year.

[P2F]

So I'm curious did they just start doing an MLB Draft Combine this year? I swear I had never heard of one before.

 

2021 was the first year.

[metafour]

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock Draft from today:

 

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (FL)

 

Indications are that Nimmala, who struck out a ton this spring, is falling. Teams likely to present a soft landing for him are the ones that care most about his pre-draft age; Toronto and Cleveland have to be considered potential landing spots for this reason.

 

Keith Law Mock #3 (June 29th) had the Jays taking HS C Blake Mitchell. He stated then that the Jays might be the floor for Mitchell and Vanderbilt OF Enrique Bradfield, and that they're on HS 3B Aidan Miller as well.

[Daniel Labude]

Big upside with Arjun. Morales is another good one

[Pendleton]

Yay draft weekend

[Spanky99]

2021 was the first year.

 

Oof... I missed that year, was it televised too?

[JaysAllMighty]

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock Draft from today:

 

 

 

Keith Law Mock #3 (June 29th) had the Jays taking HS C Blake Mitchell. He stated then that the Jays might be the floor for Mitchell and Vanderbilt OF Enrique Bradfield, and that they're on HS 3B Aidan Miller as well.

 

Keith Law’s MLB Mock Draft 4.0(Jul 7, 2023):

 

 

1. [h=3]Toronto Blue Jays – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon[/h]
   

I’ve heard them mostly with college guys, and there’s some chatter that last year’s first-rounder, high school pitcher Brandon Barriera, showing up much heavier this spring and hitting the IL with an elbow issue almost immediately has shifted them away from prep pitching. They’re Bradfield’s floor.

[Spanky99]

Keith Law’s MLB Mock Draft 4.0(Jul 7, 2023):

 

 

1. [h=3]Toronto Blue Jays – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon[/h]
   

I’ve heard them mostly with college guys, and there’s some chatter that last year’s first-rounder, high school pitcher Brandon Barriera, showing up much heavier this spring and hitting the IL with an elbow issue almost immediately has shifted them away from prep pitching. They’re Bradfield’s floor.

 

Oof...

[John_Havok]

Law has Langford going #1 to Pittsburgh, then Skenes #2 and Crews #3 now.

[Spanky99]

ARTICLEDRAFT

2023 MLB Mock Draft Version 4.0

July 7, 2023

July 7, 2023

Carlos Collazo

 

 

Welcome to Mock Draft 4.0, the penultimate Baseball America mock draft of the year.

 

There’s been a decent amount of chatter in the last 48 hours or so, but there’s still a lack of confidence in what’s happening at the top of the draft. Based on that information, we have a new name in the top spot for the first time this spring. That said, I don’t expect to feel confident in the Pirates’ choice until the name is read on Sunday.

 

As most teams picking in the top spot have done in recent years, Pittsburgh is keeping things close to the vest. One scout put it like this:

 

“The Pirates could throw off the whole draft or they could just keep it simple. And they’re not known to keep it simple.”

 

As we get down to the wire it’s probably worth reiterating how much of the mock draft process truly is guesswork. We’re trying to find the needle of noise in a haystack that’s mostly just signal, and even if we did find the noise in one haystack, a gust of wind could easily change everything.

 

Last year, Baseball America correctly predicted eight of the first 40 picks (8.5 if we get credit for Owen Murphy going to the Braves but with the wrong pick, but who’s counting?), which is good for a .200 average that can’t even be passed off as a good number among baseball folks.

 

Still, I’d be lying if I told you I wouldn’t be happy hitting .200 again this year. Enough rambling, let’s get into the mock. Here’s what I’ve been hearing:

 

1. Pirates — Paul Skenes, RHP, Louisiana State

 

Slot Value: $9,721,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $16,185,700

 

Three days out from the draft and I still don’t have a ton of confidence in which direction the Pirates are going. The one consistent rumor that seems to be swirling for the Pirates in the last 48 hours or so is that Dylan Crews is not the pick here. So, for the first time, we’re going with a different name. I initially had Wyatt Langford in this spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear his name called, but there’s a compelling case for the Pirates to take Skenes, and there’s been enough buzz with the righthander that he’s my best bet at the moment despite the difficulty of picking between the two. We’ve continued to hear Max Clark’s name floated here, and some in the industry think the Pirates could still go toward the prep route, which presumably means Walker Jenkins—whom the Pirates scouted heavily all spring—could also be in play. The college names feel more likely, though I would be lying if I told you I had more confidence in this pick today than I did a month ago. The opposite is probably true.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: LHP Alexander Clemmey

 

2. Nationals — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State

 

Slot Value: $8,998,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $14,502,400

 

We’ve continued to hear that the Nationals are highly interested in Paul Skenes, and if the Pirates don’t take the massive righthander 1-1 I still expect him to be the pick here. In this scenario he’s not available, and I think the Nationals would probably still be happy to take the No. 1 player on the BA draft board in Crews. If neither of the LSU teammates is selected with the first pick I would probably still lean Skenes over Crews, though it seems like the Nationals do like both players quite a bit. The top high school players don’t come up all that often here.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: 3B Trent Caraway; OF Jake Cunningham

 

3. Tigers — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

 

Slot Value: $8,341,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $15,747,200

 

It’s been difficult to get a read on Detroit’s draft room, though it should be positioned nicely to take whichever elite college player is available. It sounds like Crews doesn’t fall past No. 3 if he doesn’t go in either of the first two spots, and with $15.7 million in pool money, the Tigers can outspend anyone in this draft outside of Pittsburgh—and they have quite a bit more pool money to spend than the Rangers, who pick right behind them.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Jonathan Rogers

 

4. Rangers — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C.

 

Slot Value: $7,698,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $9,925,300

 

A number of sources in the industry expect the Rangers to choose Walker Jenkins if he makes it to this pick, and that feels like the safe pick for Texas here, though there’s some thought that Max Clark could actually be the prep outfielder here as well. However, Texas does have just the 16th largest bonus pool despite picking No. 4 overall, and just a year ago it showed everyone that you should never feel comfortable about the direction it is headed. It would be impossible to fully discount an underslot option if the Rangers want to try to spread their money around a bit more. It sounds like Arjun Nimmala and Enrique Bradfield are two players further down the board they like, and both players are ranked higher than Kumar Rocker was at this time a year ago.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Jonathan Rogers; OF Devin Saltiban

 

5. Twins — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

 

Slot Value: $7,139,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $14,345,600

 

The Twins have been tied to a variety of players with this pick and could take the draft in a number of different directions. Will the 2023 class be similar to 2019, where the top-tier talents all go inside the top five (six, in 2019) or will Minnesota go with someone else? There are a lot of college names tied to Minnesota, including Jacob Gonzalez, Jacob Wilson and Brayden Taylor, as well as Rhett Lowder, who’s the running favorite to be the first pitcher selected after Skenes. It’s entirely possible that the Twins simply sit here and take Max Clark (or Walker Jenkins, if he’s available), but I’ll go with Lowder for now. I wouldn’t entirely rule out the top prep righty in Noble Meyer but he also doesn’t feel like the most likely option.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Eric Bitonti; OF Grant Gray

 

6. A’s — Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian

 

Slot Value: $6,634,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $14,255,600

 

It seems like Taylor has a significant number of landing spots from around this range and into the middle of the first round. Oakland gets tied to Max Clark, Rhett Lowder and Kyle Teel a considerable amount, and Jacob Wilson could make sense as well. It’s mostly college names, plus Clark—though I don’t have any strong conviction about who leads this group of players. Scarcity at the position could make Lowder a decent option, but he’s gone in this scenario.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Laif Palmer

 

7. Reds — Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS

 

Slot Value: $6,275,200

 

Total Bonus Pool: $13,785,200

 

Clark gets rumored to more under or overslot deals than any player at the top of the first round. In this scenario it’s an overslot deal to the Reds, who have not been hesitant to pay up for a player who gets to a pick they probably shouldn’t. The Reds signed Cam Collier to a $5 million deal at pick 18 in 2022, which was a $1.34 million overslot deal. In 2021 they signed Matt McLain to a $4.63 million deal at pick 17, which was about $1 million over slot. In an era when it seems like most teams are hunting underslot deals, Cincinnati is clearly OK paying up to get a guy it likes. This is also the reason why many expect that No. 7 could be a landing spot for one of the big five to fall, rather than No. 6 to the A’s. If not Clark, many of the college players mentioned in front of this pick make sense, including Rhett Lowder and Kyle Teel. In a scenario where Walker Jenkins makes it here I feel like the Reds might do backflips to get him.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: LHP Adler Cecil; OF Jake Cunningham

 

8. Royals — Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS

 

Slot Value: $5,980,100

 

Total Bonus Pool: $12,313,500

 

There are a lot of underslot rumors for the Royals here at No. 8. Whether that’s a function of draft philosophy or simply where they’ve found themselves on the board is a tougher question. Think back to 202, when Kansas City pulled a surprise and took lefthander Frank Mozzicato at pick No. 7 and signed him to a $3.55 million deal for almost $2 million in savings. Texas catcher Blake Mitchell is the name that could make sense, though Mitchell is more highly regarded than Mozzicato at the time and I’m not sure how much savings that deal would net. He’s more of a split-camp sort of player given some teams’ aversion to prep catchers, but those who like Mitchell think he could be a star. Florida shortstop Adrian Santana could be another player they like, for this pick or a later one, and they are also linked with Noble Meyer, Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander and the college hitting trio of Brayden Taylor, Jacob Wilson and Kyle Teel. There’s no shortage of options here and this could also be the high-water mark for Matt Shaw.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Adrian Santana; RHP TJ Nichols

 

9. Rockies — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

 

Slot Value: $5,716,900

 

Total Bonus Pool: $11,909,800

 

There’s a lot of buzz with college pitchers for the Rockies. Chase Dollander would represent a great value based on his preseason reputation and based on the simple fact that he might be the second most talented pitcher in the class. He didn’t post in the same way that Skenes and Lowder did, but many in the industry still believe he’ll quickly get back to the 2022 version of himself, who entered the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the class. It doesn’t seem like Rhett Lowder would get much further than this pick if he’s on the board, and it seems like Lowder is a better bet to go among the top 10 than Dollander—though in this scenario three college arms go inside the top 10. There’s also some buzz here with Brayden Taylor and Enrique Bradfield.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks:

 

10. Marlins — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

 

Slot Value: $5,475,300

 

Total Bonus Pool: $12,829,600

 

Gonzalez could be off the board as high as No. 5, and there’s a chance he goes in the 5-10 range, but the Marlins are linked to him—as well as a number of college hitters and a few high school bats—here at 10. Miami has also beared down on Brayden Taylor and Matt Shaw, and they could be in play here as well. For the high school side, Arjun Nimmala could make sense, and lately there’s been some Colt Emerson chatter as well—both players seemingly get tied to the same teams, presumably for model-related factors like their extreme youth.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks:

 

11. Angels — Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

 

Slot Value: $5,253,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $8,328,900

 

I’ve been hearing potential fast-moving college names with the Angels mostly, and there are more bats than pitchers mentioned, though presumably that’s more because of the supply than the demand. If Chase Dollander makes it this far he could make sense, and Hurston Waldrep also seems to fit what the Angels have done in recent years. There’s also been some thought that Waldrep could push up into the top 12. For hitters, Shaw is mentioned here and both Jacob Gonzalez and Enrique Bradfield might be options as well. Bryce Eldridge is one of the few high school players linked to the Angels, and this might be the higher range for him.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks:

 

12. D-backs — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

 

Slot Value: $5,043,800

 

Total Bonus Pool: $11,084,300

 

As we mentioned in our previous mock, Arizona is consistently linked with Colin Houck, though it also gets tied to Teel, who is the best catcher in the class. Teel’s realistic range of outcomes feels higher than Houck’s at this point—there’s a real chance he goes inside the top 10—but there will almost undoubtedly be more high school shortstops available for Arizona with its second pick at No. 48 than viable catchers. Colt Emerson could be a fit here, or any of the college infielders who are already off the board in this mock if they make it to this point.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: OF Devin Saltiban;

 

13. Cubs — Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

 

Slot Value: $4,848,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $8,962,000

 

The Cubs are tied to all sorts of demographics here, though it’s more often hitters than pitchers—presumably given the greater number of offensive options available. High schoolers Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Bryce Eldridge and Blake Mitchell could fit here, as could Brayden Taylor and Matt Shaw. I think the Cubs could entertain Noble Meyer or Thomas White here, but with Wilson here he’s the pick. It’s hard to top his bat-to-ball skills in this class.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: OF Duce Robinson

 

14. Red Sox — Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS, New Port Richey, Fla.

 

Slot Value: $4,663,100

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,295,100

 

Boston has taken high school hitters with each of its last four picks in the first round: Mikey Romero, Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke and Triston Casas. There’s no obvious California prep shortstop for them in this spot this year, but I’m still hearing mostly bats for the Red Sox and talk of an underslot deal as well.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: OF Caden Sorrell; C Michael Carico; SS Roman Martin

 

15. White Sox — Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford

 

Slot Value: $4,488,600

 

Total Bonus Pool: $9,072,800

 

It’s been college and hitter heavy for the White Sox for a while now in my conversations, and they should be right in the middle of a solid wave of college hitters. In this scenario Troy, Enrique Bradfield, Nolan Schanuel and Chase Davis seem to be the best of the bunch. Chicago gets linked more to the college third base duo of Yohandy Morales and Brock Wilken than others around it as well, and I think they are real options here as well. It’s very hard to see players like Brayden Taylor and Jacob Gonzalez getting much further down the board than this if they are somehow still available with all of the potential landing spots in front.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks:

 

16. Giants — Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt

 

Slot Value: $4,326,600

 

Total Bonus Pool: $9,916,900

 

It sounds like Bradfield could go anywhere from the back of the top 10 throughout the middle of the first round. He’s more difficult to place than some hitters who don’t have the same impact questions, but Bradfield’s speed and defensive tools are also far and away the best of the draft class. San Francisco sounds like one of the teams who could be in on him. Walker Martin is frequently mentioned here as well, and Nolan Schanuel could also be a fit. I’m curious if the Giants would take a pitcher here—in this scenario Noble Meyer, Hurston Waldrep and Thomas White are all available—but I am mostly hearing bats. Tommy Troy, Matt Shaw and Aidan Miller might be a fit here.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: 2B Quinn McDaniel

 

17. Orioles — Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, Dover, Fla.

 

Slot Value: $4,169,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,534,800

 

Many of the players who are dubbed “model favorites” get tied to the Orioles, including Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel and Chase Davis. There are arms that fit nicely on talent here if Baltimore is inclined to diversify a farm system that is overflowing with talented hitters, and it could also be interested in high school players—potentially on underslot deals—including Dillon Head, George Lombard Jr. and Bryce Eldridge.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Kiefer Lord; OF Carson Roccaforte

 

18. Brewers — Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

 

Slot Value: $4,021,400

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,950,600

 

Milwaukee is one of the few teams in the 10-25 range which gets tied to pitchers often, and this board would provide it access to some pretty elite arm talent. Noble Meyer is available, but if he falls this far would the Brewers have the bonus pool money to keep him from getting to, say, Seattle? The same could be true for Thomas White if he’s available. Waldrep does get linked to the Brewers, and he has some of the best pure stuff in the class. If it’s not an arm, then Nolan Schanuel could make a lot of sense, or perhaps even a late-rising college arm like Joe Whitman or Ty Floyd.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Eric Bitonti; SS AJ Gracia; LHP Adler Cecil; SS Jay Harry

 

19. Rays — Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Ga.

 

Slot Value: $3,880,100

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,872,100

 

It’s always tough to get a read on the Rays. I have them going with one of the top players available in Colin Houck here, though I haven’t heard that specific player/team link. A few names who are mentioned with Tampa Bay include Hurston Waldrep (who is not available), Enrique Bradfield (also not available) and high schoolers Sammy Stafura, Alex Clemmey and Tai Peete—all of whom could make more sense with its next pick at No. 31.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Tai Peete

 

20. Blue Jays — Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

 

Slot Value: $3,746,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $6,529,700

 

Schanuel is linked to nearly all of the teams who are picking in the 17-23 range, so I’m expecting he goes off the board somewhere there unless he goes on some sort of underslot deal beforehand. Other model players like Chase Davis and Arjun Nimmala are frequently mentioned, and I think the Blue Jays could be in on Dillon Head and Kevin McGonigle as well, and they might be one of the earliest possible landing spots for Charlee Soto.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: OF Grant Gray, RHP Laif Palmer; OF Devin Saltiban; SS Myles Naylor

 

21. Cardinals — Chase Davis, OF, Arizona

 

Slot Value: $3,618,200

 

Total Bonus Pool: $6,375,100

 

There are enough landing spots for Chase Davis in this range that I feel like he goes up here. The Cardinals are one team that has been strongly associated with him recently. If players like Arjun Nimmala, Hurston Waldrep or Tommy Troy are still available they could be a fit as well.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: 3B Mike Boeve

 

22. Mariners — Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.

 

Slot Value: $3,496,600

 

Total Bonus Pool: $13,170,900

 

I’ll be the first to admit that it’s surprising to see Meyer’s name this far down the draft board. He’s the No. 7-ranked player on our board, after all, and seen as the consensus top high school player in the draft. However, there’s an extremely talented crop of hitters, on both the college and high school sides, and the old draft adage is that the hitters rise and the high school pitchers fall. Potentially that is the case here. There should be someone who falls to the Mariners with this pick because it seems to happen year after year. Kevin Parada in 2022 to the Mets. Cam Collier in 2022 to the Reds. Kahlil Watson in 2021 to the Marlins. Brady Singer in 2018 to the Royals. There’s always a player who falls just a bit further than we expect, and they find a pretty good home with a team with multiple picks and lots of bonus pool money to throw around. This year that team is the Mariners. Getting a Pacific Northwest high school pitcher with uber upside could be a really fun combination. There are more organizations who are simply out entirely on high school pitchers in the first round compared to hitters, so perhaps there’s a chance the prep pitchers slide.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: LHP Alexander Clemmey; RHP Steven Echavarria

 

23. Guardians — Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS, New Concord, Ohio

 

Slot Value: $3,380,900

 

Total Bonus Pool: $8,736,700

 

Emerson continues to get linked to Cleveland, and he makes sense as an ultra-young prepster with solid contact skills. This feels like the lower end of outcomes for Nolan Schanuel, and if he’s on the board I could see the Guardians pouncing. I’d assume the same is true if Arjun Nimmala somehow makes it this far—for the same reasons they are tied to Emerson. Eric Bitonti could be an interesting underslot option here as well for a team that has employed that strategy in the past. LSU righty Ty Floyd has been gaining late helium and is sounding like a potential first-rounder, and Cleveland has historically valued pitchers with his fastball metrics. Chase Davis and Bryce Eldridge are two players who fit on talent in this range, but who might not be fits for Cleveland.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Jason DeCaro; SS Jarren Purify; SS Eric Bitonti; RHP Tanner Hall

 

24. Braves — George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep HS, Miami

 

Slot Value: $3,270,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $8,341,700

 

Lombard Jr.’s range seems to be from 21-28, though it would also not shock me if he goes to the Orioles at No. 17. He’s available in this version of the mock, and he has consistently been linked with the Braves. In lieu of an option that I feel more comfortable with at this stage, he’s the pick. Bryce Eldridge is also a name that gets mentioned here reasonably consistently. I expect the Braves will look for an underslot deal at 24 given how Alex Anthopoulos has operated in the past. Atlanta could be hoping for a college bat to slide, but there are numerous landing spots for all those profiles among the top 20 picks, so it feels more likely that a high school hitter is the best option. Walker Martin could be another name to keep in mind.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP Jonathan Rogers, RHP Laif Palmer

 

25. Padres — Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (Colo.) HS

 

Slot Value: $3,165,400

 

Total Bonus Pool: $5,416,000

 

I previously mocked Chase Davis to the Padres and I think they would be interested if he were available. In this scenario, he goes off a few picks in front, leaving the Padres with a number of high school players. Walker Martin is a name that is tied to San Diego and I get the sense it would be less worried about his age than more model-heavy teams might be. Dillon Head is a name who’s been tied to San Diego as well and could make sense here, as could Bryce Eldridge and Trent Caraway.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Eric Bitonti; 3B Trent Caraway

 

26. Yankees — Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS, Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.

 

Slot Value: $3,065,000

 

Total Bonus Pool: $5,299,400

 

Considering the Yankees just drafted Spencer Jones a year ago, it would make sense for them to be another team intrigued by Bryce Eldridge—who is pretty close to the high school version of Jones. However, with Sammy Stafura on the board here it’s hard to not put him with the Yankees considering how much the team has been tied to him. Many people in the industry simply think he’s their guy at this point. It feels a lot like last year with Spencer Jones in that regard. It’s interesting to wonder if the Yankees would still take Stafura if they were picking between him and an arm talent like Thomas White, who many considered a potential top-10 pick at times this spring but is slipping in this mock. It’s much tougher to actually pull the trigger on White in this mock, though, considering the buzz connecting New York and Stafura, especially when you remember the organization hasn’t taken a prep pitcher in the first round since Ian Clarkin in 2013.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Tai Peete

 

27. Phillies — Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass.

 

Slot Value: $2,968,800

 

Total Bonus Pool: $5,185,500

 

This could be around the floor for Chase Davis if he still finds himself on the board, though there are enough teams on him that I don’t expect that to happen. The Phillies are commonly associated with high school pitchers because they have taken Andrew Painter and Mick Abel in recent years. Both those picks seem to be working out well. I think the Phillies are just going to take the best player available here, whether that’s an arm like White or one of the high school shortstops who could be around. I don’t know if they are in on Walker Martin, but if they were that would make a lot of sense.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks:

 

28. Astros — Ty Floyd, RHP, Louisiana State

 

Slot Value: $2,880,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $6,747,900

 

This would give Louisiana State three first-round picks and put it in fairly exclusive company. It sounds like the Astros really like Floyd’s riding four-seam fastball, which averaged around 19 inches of induced vertical break from a lower release point this spring. He generated a 29% miss rate with the pitch this year and also ended the season on a high note with 17 strikeouts in eight innings in the College World Series against Florida. College pitching falls off in a big way once Hurston Waldrep is off the board and Floyd has a decent chance to be the next player selected from that demographic. If the Yankees pass on Stafura he could be a fit in this spot. Walker Martin, Bryce Eldridge and Ralphy Velazquez could be other names that fit.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Avery Ortiz

 

29. Mariners — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

Slot Value: $2,800,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $13,170,900

 

Wilken is more of a talent that makes sense here for the Mariners than a specific link I have for them at this range. He could go throughout the 20s, but both he and Yohandy Morales simply don’t get as much buzz as the middle infielders. Don’t be surprised if one of them surprises us and goes a lot sooner.

 

30. Mariners — Jonny Farmelo, OF, Westfield HS, Chantilly, Va.

 

Slot Value: $2,732,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $13,170,900

 

Unlike Wilken, I have heard that the Mariners are on Farmelo and he makes sense here on talent, I think. It’s a well-rounded profile with good pure hitting ability, speed and defense. Seattle has enough bonus pool money to sign him out of Virginia.

 

31. Rays — Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian HS, Sharpsburg, Ga.

 

Slot Value: $2,670,600

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,872,100

 

I don’t know that Tai Peete is viewed as a consensus top-40-type player, but I have heard that a few teams are really excited about him. The Rays and the Yankees both fit that description. He’s a twitchy athlete and is a legitimate prospect as a pitcher as well as a hitter.

 

32. Mets — Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

 

Slot Value: $2,607,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $8,440,400

 

Like I mentioned with Wilken, I think it’s possible that Morales goes well before this, but I’ve heard the Mets could be interested if he’s available. He’s not the pure hitter type that the organization has targeted recently. If the Mets want to go that direction, perhaps Kevin McGonigle could be a fit.

 

33. Brewers — Trent Caraway, 3B, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.

 

Slot Value: $2,543,800

 

Total Bonus Pool: $10,950,600

 

California prep bats like Caraway, Eric Bitonti and Ralphy Velazquez start to get mentioned a bit more in the supplemental range, and lately Caraway has drawn the most attention of the group.

 

34. Twins — Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State

 

Slot Value: $2,481,400

 

Total Bonus Pool: $14,345,600

 

Whitman is probably the favorite to be the first college lefthander picked this year and there’s a chance he goes in the first round. If he doesn’t I don’t expect it’ll take too much longer once teams start looking around at other college pitching options.

 

35. Marlins — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Penn.

 

Slot Value: $2,420,900

 

Total Bonus Pool:

 

McGonigle doesn’t get the same amount of buzz as other top prep shortstops like Arjun Nimmala, Colin Houck, Walker Martin, Adrian Santana or Colt Emerson. Perhaps I’m just missing those conversations. It also sounds like signability has become a bigger question with him in recent days, though whether that’s posturing or real is impossible to say. It feels odd that the industry would let arguably the best pure hitter in the high school class get to Auburn … right?

 

36. Dodgers — Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian Academy HS, Kissimmee, Fla.

 

Slot Value: $2,362,700

 

Total Bonus Pool: $7,274,600

 

While Kevin McGonigle has some signability questions, it seems like Soto has teams questioning the shape and metrics on his fastball—sort of along the same lines as Ty Madden’s fastball in 2021. I feel confident Soto does pretty much everything else well enough that it’ll end up being a minor nitpick for a team rather than a real deal-breaker. He throws hard, has one of the best sliders and changeups in the prep class and is also an impressive athlete with physicality and youth on his side. That’s a lot of checked boxes.

 

Dart Throw Later Picks: RHP TJ Nichols

 

37. Tigers — Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B, Madison HS, Vienna, Va.

 

Slot Value: $2,309,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $12,829,600

 

I have heard the Tigers are one of the teams interested in Eldridge. Perhaps Detroit is able to get him here on an overslot deal.

 

38. Reds — Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS

 

Slot Value: $2,255,100

 

Total Bonus Pool: $13,785,200

 

In this mock I don’t have the Reds taking Kyle Teel at No. 7, but they could potentially swing back around in the supplemental round and get one of the big three catchers in the class with Velazquez.

 

39. A’s — Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS, Flossmoor, Ill.

 

Slot Value: $2,202,500

 

Total Bonus Pool: $14,255,600

 

I mainly wanted to get Head into this mock draft. He’s one of the players I just couldn’t find a home for in this version, but who has a decent chance to go inside the first round. It’s great speed and defense in center field with solid contact skills at the plate.

[Jonn]

Keith Law’s MLB Mock Draft 4.0(Jul 7, 2023):

 

 

1. [h=3]Toronto Blue Jays – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon[/h]
   

I’ve heard them mostly with college guys, and there’s some chatter that last year’s first-rounder, high school pitcher Brandon Barriera, showing up much heavier this spring and hitting the IL with an elbow issue almost immediately has shifted them away from prep pitching. They’re Bradfield’s floor.

 

Something about becoming a Blue Jay is making players eat excessively

[John_Havok]

Something about becoming a Blue Jay is making players eat excessively

 

Its "cold" up here, need to add some insulation I guess?

[TheHurl]

Cousin Jack is dropping. Chances are the Rays take him but he might drop all the way to the 2nd round for the Jays. Amazing how that middle paragraph matched my draft profile in 1988 (if Canadians were allowed in the draft)

 

In 2022, Virginia Tech rode one of the better collegiate offenses in the game to a Super Regional appearance, and that lineup had five players taken in the top five rounds of last year’s Draft, led by first-rounder Gavin Cross. Hurley was one of the best performers on the team as a sophomore, finishing with a 1.116 OPS and reaching double digits in home runs and stolen bases. He played briefly in the Cape Cod League and was a member of the U.S. Collegiate National Team over the summer.

 

A left-handed hitting outfielder, Hurley has the chance to be a true five-tool player at the next level. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and started tapping into his considerable raw power in 2022, with the chance to be an above-average hitter with above-average power in the future.

 

Hurley played left field in deference to Cross last year, but his plus speed and strong defensive instincts enabled him to play center field in 2023 and should let him stay there, with more than enough arm to slide to right field should the need arise. He plays with a ton of energy, reminding some of Tennessee product Drew Gilbert, who was taken by the Astros at the end of the first round of the 2022 Draft.

[Pendleton]

Cousin Jack is dropping. Chances are the Rays take him but he might drop all the way to the 2nd round for the Jays. Amazing how that middle paragraph matched my draft profile in 1988 (if Canadians were allowed in the draft)

 

A left-handed hitting outfielder, Hurley has the chance to be a true five-tool player at the next level. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and started tapping into his considerable raw power in 2022, with the chance to be an above-average hitter with above-average power in the future.

 

 

 

I remember you saying last year that you had started tapping into your considerable raw power.

[Spanky99]

Cousin Jack is dropping. Chances are the Rays take him but he might drop all the way to the 2nd round for the Jays. Amazing how that middle paragraph matched my draft profile in 1988 (if Canadians were allowed in the draft)

 

In 2022, Virginia Tech rode one of the better collegiate offenses in the game to a Super Regional appearance, and that lineup had five players taken in the top five rounds of last year’s Draft, led by first-rounder Gavin Cross. Hurley was one of the best performers on the team as a sophomore, finishing with a 1.116 OPS and reaching double digits in home runs and stolen bases. He played briefly in the Cape Cod League and was a member of the U.S. Collegiate National Team over the summer.

 

A left-handed hitting outfielder, Hurley has the chance to be a true five-tool player at the next level. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and started tapping into his considerable raw power in 2022, with the chance to be an above-average hitter with above-average power in the future.

 

Hurley played left field in deference to Cross last year, but his plus speed and strong defensive instincts enabled him to play center field in 2023 and should let him stay there, with more than enough arm to slide to right field should the need arise. He plays with a ton of energy, reminding some of Tennessee product Drew Gilbert, who was taken by the Astros at the end of the first round of the 2022 Draft.

 

lol... you wish.

[TheHurl]

lol... you wish.

 

I had exactly zero out of the park HR's in 1988. I was geneinely a solid 3 tool guy but arm and power were both so far below average.

[Spanky99]

I had exactly zero out of the park HR's in 1988. I was geneinely a solid 3 tool guy but arm and power were both so far below average.

 

Did they call you twinkle toes, every team has one of those guys? Hah!

[Daniel Labude]

Waldrep, Arjun, Morales, Schanuel

 

Id say these are our targets for the 1st pick. I dont see Waldrep still being there, but if he is, definitely see the Jays taking him

[Pendleton]

For the third straight year, the Draft will be part of All-Star Week. Sunday's action begins at 6 p.m. ET with a one-hour pregame show on MLB Network, followed by Round 1 (including one prospect promotion compensation pick), Competitive Balance Round A (10 picks), Round 2 and Competitive Balance Round B (six picks) and three second-round compensation picks.

 

All 70 picks can be seen on MLB Network, MLB.com, ESPN and, for the first time, ESPN+.

 

Days 2 and 3 can be seen on MLB.com. Day 2 gets underway at 2 p.m. on Monday, with Rounds 3-10 on the slate. The final day, featuring Rounds 11-20, begins at 2 p.m. on Tuesday.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-overview-and-schedule-2023