General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Jimcanuck]

Would the Jays have a role for Michael Busch? The guy is wasting away on the Dodgers farm. Hell of a lot of pop in that bat.

[L54]

Michael Busch for Ricky Tiedemann incoming

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

The team isn't really in a position to be choosy. They have no 3B and the only 3+ win option in FA probably costs 150M. They need an everyday OF, and the only 3+ win (maybe) option probably costs 200M. Swapping Kikuchi for Polanco gives them a 2-3 win option at 3B at 10.5M this year with a team option for 2025. Salary is basically a wash. Only instead of having to target Chapman, they move to a market that includes Yamamoto, Imanaga, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Paxton, Montas etc...

 

Even if it's just Paxton they sign, it's

 

Polanco (1/10.5 + 12M team option for 2025)

Paxton (1/10?)

 

vs.

 

Chapman (6/150?)

Kikichi (1/12)

 

 

For basically the same projected 2024 WAR

 

This.

[L54]

I thought about Polanco too but he’s such a butcher defensively seems unlikely. Same as Busch. We could be the 2014 Mariners and just employ first baseman all over the place

[max silver]

Kikuchi is expendable like you said. Could easily replace him with a free agent. Plenty of arms available who you could sign for a similar price and who could provide similar WAR.

 

Chapman is really the only solid 3B available on the market now. Not sure he gets 150M, but geez that would be crazy. Would like him around $80-100M at 4 or 5 years, but who knows.

 

Like you said the Jays can't be really picky when it comes to third base now. Have to target guys like Polanco or even roll the dice on someone like Moncada. Doesn't hurt to even sign a vet as insurance to be on the bench like Longoria or Donaldson if they came cheap.

 

Kikuchi provided results closer to a middle of the rotation arm compared to the number 5 starter money he was paid through free agency. He out WAR'd a player (Bassitt) who was paid double what Kikuchi earned through free agency. I don't think the Blue Jays can replace this value for similar dollars through free agency, Maybe if Manoah can get back to at least being a middle of the rotation arm that would cushion the blow if the team doesn't fully replace what Kikuchi offered.

[L54]

Kikuchi provided results closer to a middle of the rotation arm compared to the number 5 starter money he was paid through free agency. He out WAR'd a player (Bassitt) who was paid double what Kikuchi earned through free agency. I don't think the Blue Jays can replace this value for similar dollars through free agency, Maybe if Manoah can get back to at least being a middle of the rotation arm that would cushion the blow if the team doesn't fully replace what Kikuchi offered.

 

That’s what gives him trade value Max

[Jimcanuck]

FG says the only defensive homes for Busch are 1B/LF. He could be had reasonably cheaply and fill LF, and not signing Bellinger frees up cash for an SP (Montgomery?) and 3B (Chapman?)

 

Having Varsho reduces the impact of Busch's defensive limitations

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Is Chappy really worth a huge contract just for the defense? We have in house options likely to hit as good as Chappy.

 

Orelvis could likely put up Chapman #'s (.220, 20 HR) for league min as a rookie. There would be a defensive drop off obviously, but the $25 mill per year saved by not signing Chappy could help us elsewhere.

[Jimcanuck]

Is Chappy really worth a huge contract just for the defense? We have in house options likely to hit as good as Chappy.

 

Orelvis could likely put up Chapman #'s (.220, 20 HR) for league min as a rookie. There would be a defensive drop off obviously, but the $25 mill per year saved by not signing Chappy could help us elsewhere.

 

I don't think he's getting a huge contract. His market is not that large, and teams tend to undervalue defense.

 

Jays having internal options available at 3B mean they can despair him.

[max silver]

That’s what gives him trade value Max

 

Yeah I hear you for sure, but at the same time it's the kind of thing that makes him valuable to the Blue Jays. I just tend to think the club will be in tough to replace the value he provided for similar money.

[Jays24]

Ya Chappy may have turned down a contract offer before but I'm going to guess reality will sink in for him. He has not earned anything over 100M based on his recent play.

 

Guys like Semien, Ray, Bellinger and many more had to reup for 1 year in order to earn the contract they thought they deserved. It's either that or Chappy has to revise his expectations on a long term deal.

[max silver]

Is Chappy really worth a huge contract just for the defense? We have in house options likely to hit as good as Chappy.

 

Orelvis could likely put up Chapman #'s (.220, 20 HR) for league min as a rookie. There would be a defensive drop off obviously, but the $25 mill per year saved by not signing Chappy could help us elsewhere.

 

I suspect there is still a wide range of likely Chapman offensive scenarios. He could be the shitbag hitter that ended 2023 on a really bad note, or he could be streaky and end up around 110 wRC+ or so, or he could make some tweaks to his approach and pull the ball more on his fly balls and have a tremendous offensive season.

 

I think the rookie version of Orelvis is going to be in tough to replace what Chapman offers when you factor in the entire package Chapman brings to the table. Orelvis held his own in AAA but far from mastered it as he only produced a 105 wRC+. I think the best course of action would see Orevlis being given a chance to first master AAA pitching so that he's more prepared for the challenges he's going to see in MLB.

[Jimcanuck]

Ya Chappy may have turned down a contract offer before but I'm going to guess reality will sink in for him. He has not earned anything over 100M based on his recent play.

 

Guys like Semien, Ray, Bellinger and many more had to reup for 1 year in order to earn the contract they thought they deserved. It's either that or Chappy has to revise his expectations.

 

This goes too far the other way. The middle ground is something like 5 years and $110M.

 

The projection for Orelvis is a wRC+ of 88 and below average defense as a 3B. He's not who I was thinking of when I mentioned internal options. Schneider / Biggio platoon much better.

[Jays24]

Report: Blue Jays interested in Reds' India

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2797168

[Jimcanuck]

Report: Blue Jays interested in Reds' India

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2797168

 

That's a ******** article. Filler.

[Spanky__99]

That's a ******** article. Filler.

 

Dude calls him Indian, lol.

[Daniel Labude]

Is Chappy really worth a huge contract just for the defense? We have in house options likely to hit as good as Chappy.

 

Orelvis could likely put up Chapman #'s (.220, 20 HR) for league min as a rookie. There would be a defensive drop off obviously, but the $25 mill per year saved by not signing Chappy could help us elsewhere.

 

Give me Orelvis

[Jimcanuck]

Give me Orelvis

 

Chances are Orelvis gets boo'ed out of town by June. Jays are not going to risk it. He needs more seasoning.

 

He'll be up when he is dominating AAA.

[Carlos Danger]

Kikuchi provided results closer to a middle of the rotation arm compared to the number 5 starter money he was paid through free agency. He out WAR'd a player (Bassitt) who was paid double what Kikuchi earned through free agency. I don't think the Blue Jays can replace this value for similar dollars through free agency, Maybe if Manoah can get back to at least being a middle of the rotation arm that would cushion the blow if the team doesn't fully replace what Kikuchi offered.

 

Bassitt and Kikuchi had the same WAR. Small detail that doesn’t change the cost argument. However, neither out WAR’d the other.

[Spanky__99]

Bassitt and Kikuchi had the same WAR. Small detail that doesn’t change the cost argument. However, neither out WAR’d the other.

 

RA9 value too, you just don't trade that s***, man.

[L54]

RA9 value too, you just don't trade that s***, man.

 

Why not

[L54]

Orelvis is not ready for the bigs. A summer promotion at the absolute earliest

[wamco]

But why?

 

Yelich LF

bellinger cf vs lhp. 1b vs rhp with vlad going to dh

[jaysblue]

RA9 value too, you just don't trade that s***, man.

 

Why all of a sudden does nobody want to trade Kikuchi? Everyone really forgot how awful his 2022 season was and his career prior to this season. He's going to be 33-years-old next season and only has one year left on his contract.

 

The Jays will have to be creative on the trade front. The rotation is an area of depth for them, so they could afford to move Kikuchi (who on paper is their No. 4 starter right now) if it means making an offensive upgrade somewhere in their lineup like 3B. As well, there are plenty rotation arms available in free agency this season, so you can easily replace Kikuchi with an arm that provides you 2+ WAR.

[jaysblue]

Kikuchi provided results closer to a middle of the rotation arm compared to the number 5 starter money he was paid through free agency. He out WAR'd a player (Bassitt) who was paid double what Kikuchi earned through free agency. I don't think the Blue Jays can replace this value for similar dollars through free agency, Maybe if Manoah can get back to at least being a middle of the rotation arm that would cushion the blow if the team doesn't fully replace what Kikuchi offered.

 

Kikuchi was fantastic in 2023 and really was a key piece in that rotation that kept it together after the Manoah disaster. He only has one-year left of control, however his 12M salary could definitely be intriguing to some teams who don't want to spend big money on a mid-rotation starter. So yeah he does have some trade value in a deal.

 

Looking at the free agent market, it looks like it's going to be tougher and way more expensive to acquire a solid bat, like a third baseman. Jays don't have a strong farm system, so they likely need to trade from their MLB roster to make any deals. The rotation is an area of strength, so they could afford to trade Kikuchi (currently their No. 4 starter), if a trade arises where they can make an offensive upgrade to their lineup, especially at 3B. There are plenty of SPs available in free agency who the Jays could sign on a 1-2 year deal who come with some upside and who could fill out the back of the rotation. Even if it means they have to pay a couple million more than Kikuchi's $12M AAV salary, who cares. Would rather pay another SP around $16M AAV to replace Kikuchi instead of locking up Chapman to a contract over $100M or Belly to over $200M.

 

It's also ironic how we all now forget how awful Kikuchi was prior to his 2023 season.

[Laika]

I'd trade any SP for the right return

 

Kikuchi might be the most tradeable since his cost is low and he is coming off a really strong year

 

Can't imagine bassitt or berrios' contracts being attractive

 

Gausman would have big value but... then no Ace

 

Manoah is weird. Of course I'd sell him but teams would only want to get him for cheap

[BTS]

Kikuchi was fantastic in 2023 and really was a key piece in that rotation that kept it together after the Manoah disaster. He only has one-year left of control, however his 12M salary could definitely be intriguing to some teams who don't want to spend big money on a mid-rotation starter. So yeah he does have some trade value in a deal.

 

Looking at the free agent market, it looks like it's going to be tougher and way more expensive to acquire a solid bat, like a third baseman. Jays don't have a strong farm system, so they likely need to trade from their MLB roster to make any deals. The rotation is an area of strength, so they could afford to trade Kikuchi (currently their No. 4 starter), if a trade arises where they can make an offensive upgrade to their lineup, especially at 3B. There are plenty of SPs available in free agency who the Jays could sign on a 1-2 year deal who come with some upside and who could fill out the back of the rotation. Even if it means they have to pay a couple million more than Kikuchi's $12M AAV salary, who cares. Would rather pay another SP around $16M AAV to replace Kikuchi instead of locking up Chapman to a contract over $100M or Belly to over $200M.

 

It's also ironic how we all now forget how awful Kikuchi was prior to his 2023 season.

 

jasblue is 100% correct. Kikuchi is expendable to a team with money to spend. And might have value to a team without money to spend. He’s an SP 4/5 making 12M, and a lot of you seem pretty unprepared for the not that unlikely outcome where he walks like 5/9 and puts up a 0.5 win season.

[wamco]

Kikuchi and Kepler both have identical contract remaining and same exact value on mlbtv Fangraphs projects .2 difference in WAR next year.

 

Twins lost gray and maeda and Kepler has been rumored to be on the block forever

[Olerud363]

Orelvis is not ready for the bigs. A summer promotion at the absolute earliest

 

Orelvis might not take as much of a hit off his minor league numbers as others. He's a .240 minor league hitter who has put some stinkers like barely hitting .200 for a few months. So at first you would think he would get destroyed in the majors.

 

However his problem is pop-ups. Like his k-rate isn't that bad. Joey Gallo for example had a way worse k-rate. Some guys hit just as well in the majors as minors and Orelvis might be that guy.

 

1. Vlad Guerrero 110 mph ground balls eat up minor league infields but he loses a lot of batting average when going to the majors because major league defenses handle his grounders better.

2. Orelvis Martinez popups aren't going to be hits in the minors or majors so he may not have as much a discount when reaching the majors because of defense.

3. His k-rate isn't that bad. Like way better than Joey Gallo's was in the minors.

4. His minor league numbers might be just randomly fluky on the low side.

 

Orelvis may be a .240 .320 .500 minor league and major league hitter and maybe he is ready.

[BTS]

Kikuchi and Kepler both have identical contract remaining and same exact value on mlbtv Fangraphs projects .2 difference in WAR next year.

 

Twins lost gray and maeda and Kepler has been rumored to be on the block forever

 

We're pretty much perfect trade partners.

 

Polanco is a 2-3 win 3B, but is a 10.5M bench player on the Twins because they have Correa, Lewis, and Julien.

Kepler is a 2-3 win LW, but they seem to want to trade his 10M salary and run with Wallner, Buxton, and Castro in the OF.

 

The Twins only have 3 reliable SPs. We have Kikuchi, and the financial resources to backfill Kikuchi's spot.