General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[MikeM3]

Chapman is very confusing. I wanted to say his hip surgery f***ed him up and stopped him from pulling the ball but 2 years ago he pulled it a s*** ton.

 

All other power indicators are strong. He hit better on the road. Maybe the new dimensions hurt him

[Jimcanuck]

When does Chapman decline start, or has it already? Not sure this is a player to sign long term, when the Jays might be in buy pitching mode for some time yet.

[wamco]

4/72 is my max for chap. Wouldn’t get it done and I’m ok with that.

[Krylian]

But you can't just do that. If we could, we'd remove Moreno's July/August and everyone would think he's a limp dick batter with no upside and we wouldn't have 70 pages talking about the trade for Varsho.

 

Chapman had 2 VERY good months last year (April and July) and 4 s***** month with the bat. Did anyone notice he basically did the same thing in 2022 (June + July were huge months)? Not that I remember. He's a streaky hitter. Lots of players are.

 

The guy is a career 118 wRC+ hitter. Arenado is a career 120 wRC+ hitter.

 

Of course you can. When they sit down to negotiate the Jays are most certainly going to take into account that his last 5 months or so were abysmal. Way better to start weak and finish strong than start strong and finish weak.

[John_Havok]

People are talking about wanting to bring in Suarez and Arenado - both of whom were shittier with the bat than Chapman was last year. The guy has come to Toronto and give us 4 WAR/155 games for 2 straight seasons. That is "star" level in the major leagues. Don't get me wrong, I'm not comfortable locking up Chapman for 6 years $150M - but that's not because he's not a really good, valuable player, it's an age/commitment thing for me. Make no mistake, there's a very good chance we're going to f***ing miss Chapman at 3rd base next year, no matter how much you hate how streaky his bat was last year.

 

It’s really just a symptom of how fans perceive offensive value vs defensive value. Fans perceive offense to be far more important than defense because it’s easier to see where the value comes from. There is some truth to that too since a guy who puts up a 7fwar season will almost always have more value from offense than defense.

 

It’s just that guys like Chapman, because they’re so prolific on defense and just “above average” with the bat, it’s difficult for fans to understand why he would be worth 150million over 6 years, when defense has always been cheaper to acquire.

 

If you ran polls with fans, you’d probably find they’d rather have stellar offense with below average D over stellar D with above average offense. I can’t really say that’s wrong… but if at the end of the season the overall values end up similar, how can one argue that player B shouldn’t get as much as player A?

[John_Havok]

People are talking about wanting to bring in Suarez and Arenado - both of whom were shittier with the bat than Chapman was last year. The guy has come to Toronto and give us 4 WAR/155 games for 2 straight seasons. That is "star" level in the major leagues. Don't get me wrong, I'm not comfortable locking up Chapman for 6 years $150M - but that's not because he's not a really good, valuable player, it's an age/commitment thing for me. Make no mistake, there's a very good chance we're going to f***ing miss Chapman at 3rd base next year, no matter how much you hate how streaky his bat was last year.

 

I don’t think I’d want him at 6/150 either, even though one could comfortably argue that’s what his value would be given his performance.

 

But them one could argue the other way also and expect age related decline both offensively and defensively. Those are valid arguments against.

 

A non-valid argument is saying Chapman is a “no-bat” 3b.

[Spanky99]

It's kind of crazy to me that Chappy turned down an offer from Toronto north of 100M, I guess his camp is in no rush, but I hope the Jays find a guy in trade for a quick gap to Barger and eventually Orelvis, it's too much money. Heyman seems adamant that they indeed offered it, as it's been posted on 3 different platforms.

[Brownie19]

Of course you can. When they sit down to negotiate the Jays are most certainly going to take into account that his last 5 months or so were abysmal. Way better to start weak and finish strong than start strong and finish weak.

 

I'm not sure it is - unless you're including the playoffs. The value and wins in April matter just as much as the ones in September. Oh and he wasn't abysmal for 5 months. He was very good in July.

 

The reality is that when you get hot and cold skews the fans perspective. Hit like s*** in April & May? Everyone notices and hates you. Hit like s*** in June and August? Nobody notices.

[John_Havok]

K rate is a red flag but plus defense is a green flag.

 

I dunno. If he gets closer to $100M it might be a sweet deal for somebody. He seems like a smart player.

 

He has like, one flaw. Whiffs.

 

He has maxEV, barrels, defense, baserunning, general baseball IQ.

 

I guess you could say he has a small second flaw, being the FB ratio which means less hits and lower AVG. But that's kind of a feature too since it's part of the power.

 

I think the whiff rate is more yellow than red at this point since it’s definitely better than his first few post injury seasons, but worse than his excellent seasons.

 

If we had access to the bat speed data Tango was working on recently, it would be easier to categorize. I noticed though that his in zone swing rate was down, out of zone swing rate was up. I think his swing decisions are largely responsible for part of the whiff issues, swing at more strikes, whiff rate probably goes down.

[Krylian]

I'm not sure it is - unless you're including the playoffs. The value and wins in April matter just as much as the ones in September. Oh and he wasn't abysmal for 5 months. He was very good in July.

 

The reality is that when you get hot and cold skews the fans perspective. Hit like s*** in April & May? Everyone notices and hates you. Hit like s*** in June and August? Nobody notices.

 

I mean from a contract negotiation standpoint. I'd rather finish a season hot.

[connorp]

For Biggio we can wipe out pre-May 21 to make a point, but then it’s the best to use a whole season sample for someone else and not worry the bad finish

[connorp]

Baseball of course will be streaky and guys like Freeman will have a .600 OPS some random month, but I’m not sure it’s normal for guys to consistently disappear for months at a time like Chapman and Jansen do. At some point they’re a guy subject to extreme streaks, which isn’t ideal

[Spanky99]

For Biggio we can wipe out pre-May 21 to make a point, but then it’s the best to use a whole season sample for someone else and not worry the bad finish

 

When are you ever going to shut up about Biggio? The guy's a perfectly cromulent bench bat that can play multiple positions for cheap on a contender, it's simple as that, man. Just STFU.

 

At the end of the season, Chappy had a wRC+ 110, and Biggio 103

[Krylian]

For Biggio we can wipe out pre-May 21 to make a point, but then it’s the best to use a whole season sample for someone else and not worry the bad finish

 

When you're talking about a 9-digit contract, you analyze the season very closely. Separating the first month from the remaining 5 is not unreasonable. In fact, one could argue that the one month is a small sample size and he's actually what the last 5 months say he is.

[max silver]

When you're talking about a 9-digit contract, you analyze the season very closely. Separating the first month from the remaining 5 is not unreasonable. In fact, one could argue that the one month is a small sample size and he's actually what the last 5 months say he is.

 

When you closely break down the numbers Chapman essentially played like an MVP candidate for nearly half of his season and was a little above replacement level for the rest. He was similar to Gurriel at the plate where he was a world beater when he was hot but pretty terrible when he wasn't.

 

He started the season like gangbusters and looked like he was playing his way to a free agency mega contract.

 

36 GP 178 wRC+ 2.1 FWAR

Then he hit the skids for an extended period.

 

49 GP 79 wRC+ 0.5 FWAR

 

He heated up again in early July.

 

29 GP 139 wRC+ 1.1 FWAR

 

Finally he went ice cold to end the season, with a finger injury likely contributing somewhat to the struggles upon his return

 

28 GP 50 wRC+ -0.1 FWAR

 

You are left with a player that produced 3.2 FWAR in only 65 games when he was on top of his game, but struggled to only 0.4 FWAR in the other 75 games when he wasn't producing at the plate.

[John_Havok]

Holy f***ing semantics. Everyone knew what Krylian meant but the word police had to come to the rescue

 

Chapman has always had a very risky profile. He’s a glove first player who has had a few good seasons with the stick to tease an all star or even MVP ceiling but reality is it looks like he will age like s*** and the team who gives him 5 years will be paying 2023 Evan Longoria 25M a year for at least the last two years

 

Semantics and details are two very different things

[Laika]

When you closely break down the numbers Chapman essentially played like an MVP candidate for nearly half of his season and was a little above replacement level for the rest. He was similar to Gurriel at the plate where he was a world beater when he was hot but pretty terrible when he wasn't.

 

He started the season like gangbusters and looked like he was playing his way to a free agency mega contract.

 

36 GP 178 wRC+ 2.1 FWAR

Then he hit the skids for an extended period.

 

49 GP 79 wRC+ 0.5 FWAR

 

He heated up again in early July.

 

29 GP 139 wRC+ 1.1 FWAR

 

Finally he went ice cold to end the season, with a finger injury likely contributing somewhat to the struggles upon his return

 

28 GP 50 wRC+ -0.1 FWAR

 

You are left with a player that produced 3.2 FWAR in only 65 games when he was on top of his game, but struggled to only 0.4 FWAR in the other 75 games when he wasn't producing at the plate.

 

That little July heater does kind of make a difference.

 

Shape of the season does matter but going AMAZING-BAD-OKAY-s***** is better than going AMAZING-BAD-s*****-SHITTYBAD

[AdamGreenwood]

My thoughts.

1. Let Chapman go. Maybe the numbers say it is a good deal, but his second-half was so atrocious, I can't stomach the idea of seeing him at 3B for the next 5 years. Let Biggio/Schneider have a full-season there and save the money.

2. Avoid trades. We don't have a lot of depth, in either the starting 26, or the farm. Let's not deplete it further.

 

Free Agents to Pursue:

 

Jeimer Candelario: Not that much worse than Chapman and expected to go for 3/45 instead of 5/120

Jung-Hoo Lee: Bit of a wildcard, but numbers in KBO are better than Ha-Seong Kim and expected to go at 4/52

Lourdes Gourriel: @ 3/36, he seems like a bargain. Not sure he can repeat, but feel he's better than what he's show so far. And love his enthusiasm for the game.

Rhys Hoskins: This guy could be an absolute steal. Sounds like he could go at 2/27 - and make Belt a distant memory. Bit of a risk with the knee, but at that price, worth the risk, especially with a couple option years.

Tim Anderson: Personally, I can't stand him but he's projected to go at 1/8 which is an absurd price, and we'd all just have to stomach him.

[Brownie19]

My thoughts.

1. Let Chapman go. Maybe the numbers say it is a good deal, but his second-half was so atrocious, I can't stomach the idea of seeing him at 3B for the next 5 years. Let Biggio/Schneider have a full-season there and save the money.

2. Avoid trades. We don't have a lot of depth, in either the starting 26, or the farm. Let's not deplete it further.

 

Free Agents to Pursue:

 

Jeimer Candelario: Not that much worse than Chapman and expected to go for 3/45 instead of 5/120

Jung-Hoo Lee: Bit of a wildcard, but numbers in KBO are better than Ha-Seong Kim and expected to go at 4/52

Lourdes Gourriel: @ 3/36, he seems like a bargain. Not sure he can repeat, but feel he's better than what he's show so far. And love his enthusiasm for the game.

Rhys Hoskins: This guy could be an absolute steal. Sounds like he could go at 2/27 - and make Belt a distant memory. Bit of a risk with the knee, but at that price, worth the risk, especially with a couple option years.

Tim Anderson: Personally, I can't stand him but he's projected to go at 1/8 which is an absurd price, and we'd all just have to stomach him.

 

Repeat what? His career high 2.1 WAR season? LGJ simply isn't very good people. I also like the idea of adding a big bat like Hoskins, but let's remember this is a 2 WAR player coming off a missed season. Belt's 2023 season was essentially Hopkin's career year (let that sink in). I love the 1 year option for him. I could do 2 years, but I'm not sure you want to lock him up at $15M+ AAV.

 

FWIW, I do agree with your first 2 points. Tough to balance that desire to push all your chips in and "go for it" with the option to potentially take a small step back, that might keep you in a solid position over a longer period.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Brownie19

[max silver]

My thoughts.

1. Let Chapman go. Maybe the numbers say it is a good deal, but his second-half was so atrocious, I can't stomach the idea of seeing him at 3B for the next 5 years. Let Biggio/Schneider have a full-season there and save the money.

2. Avoid trades. We don't have a lot of depth, in either the starting 26, or the farm. Let's not deplete it further.

 

Free Agents to Pursue:

 

Jeimer Candelario: Not that much worse than Chapman and expected to go for 3/45 instead of 5/120

Jung-Hoo Lee: Bit of a wildcard, but numbers in KBO are better than Ha-Seong Kim and expected to go at 4/52

Lourdes Gourriel: @ 3/36, he seems like a bargain. Not sure he can repeat, but feel he's better than what he's show so far. And love his enthusiasm for the game.

Rhys Hoskins: This guy could be an absolute steal. Sounds like he could go at 2/27 - and make Belt a distant memory. Bit of a risk with the knee, but at that price, worth the risk, especially with a couple option years.

Tim Anderson: Personally, I can't stand him but he's projected to go at 1/8 which is an absurd price, and we'd all just have to stomach him.

 

Those prices all seem pretty team friendly. For those kinds of dollars any of those signings could make sense but I suspect the actual terms will eclipse those all by a large degree.

[max silver]

I wouldn't mind seeing 1 year deals to the likes of Michael A Taylor and Jason Heyward. Taylor and Heyward would likely make for an effective platoon and would give the squad a few more high quality outfield defenders. Being able to mix and match Springer, Varsho, Taylor and Heyward would create an interesting lefty/righty mix that could be deployed depending on matchups.

[Brownie19]

https://www.mlb.com/news/where-every-mlb-team-starts-the-2023-24-offseason

 

Interesting. Jays are ranked 4th...

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlb.com/news/where-every-mlb-team-starts-the-2023-24-offseason

 

Interesting. Jays are ranked 4th...

 

Cool beans.

[Laika]

https://www.mlb.com/news/where-every-mlb-team-starts-the-2023-24-offseason

 

Interesting. Jays are ranked 4th...

 

The Atkins haters will ignore this

[G-Snarls]

One thing Atkins has been very good with is free agent signings

 

Almost all have worked out well

[Brownie19]

The Atkins haters will ignore this

 

Built for the regular season, not the post season amirite?

[Laika]

Built for the regular season, not the post season amirite?

 

Atkins is in the lab perfecting his 91 win roster for 2024

[connorp]

The Atkins haters will ignore this

 

They literally openly question the science involved and discuss the teams glaring needs.

[Laika]

You're literally special

[connorp]

You're literally special

 

I take credit for nothing. God makes men what they are.