General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[G-Snarls]

The rotation is setting up nicely for the playoffs.

 

Gausman vs. King

Berrios vs. Cole

Bassitt vs. Weaver

Ryu vs. Littell

Kikuchi vs. Bradley

Gausman vs. Rays

 

Good chance we will have clinched by that final game so Gausman's last start can be skipped and we can head right into a Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt turn in the WC Round. Gausman will have an extra day of rest too which usually makes him even more effective.

 

Omg yes yes yes

 

What a beautiful setup if game 162 is meaningless so hopefully it is

[Stangstag]

I do and my eyes and brain say 100%. Wondered if anyone had seen some analysis thats definitive on incremental value. Might be tough. Its still such a commonly stated misperception "pitching and D wins in the playoffs". Smash the bombs!

 

Just the last few years alone you think of Soler, Howie Kendrick oppo off the foul pole for 3 runs for Nats, Harper and Schwarber, Arozarena, Betts, Alvarez and Altuve etc etc.

 

Defense is definitely still extremely important. The Bautista homerun doesn’t happen with good D. Also with good D Texas likely wins the WS in 2011

[Orgfiller]

I do and my eyes and brain say 100%. Wondered if anyone had seen some analysis thats definitive on incremental value. Might be tough. Its still such a commonly stated misperception "pitching and D wins in the playoffs". Smash the bombs!

 

Just the last few years alone you think of Soler, Howie Kendrick oppo off the foul pole for 3 runs for Nats, Harper and Schwarber, Arozarena, Betts, Alvarez and Altuve etc etc.

 

Anyone that watches the playoffs knows this. Almost all the big games in the last 10 years have been decided by homeruns

 

Defense is definitely still extremely important. The Bautista homerun doesn’t happen with good D. Also with good D Texas likely wins the WS in 2011

 

It's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The reason homers are important in the playoffs, or more decisive, is because pitching and defense are that much better compared to the regular season. The best teams are in the playoffs, and the best teams tend to have better pitching and defense, so the baseline is already naturally significantly higher. With better pitching and defense, it's harder to string hits together and make s*** happen on the bases, so out-homering the opponent will set you up better for getting wins.

 

You also can't be a bad hitting team and make the playoffs, generally speaking. So teams that make it will have more prolific power hitters/hit better for power as a team, and it will be manifested into better winning chances when encountering good pitching + defense in the playoffs, against similarly powerful teams.

[BigCecil]

Defense is definitely still extremely important. The Bautista homerun doesn’t happen with good D. Also with good D Texas likely wins the WS in 2011

 

I've watched that Cruz missed catch in RF 100 times or more. It wasn't an easy grab, but he lays up on his route too early and misses it by not that much.

 

You would think with the WS on the line he would have gone all out. Catch it and you are WS champions.

 

[max silver]

Yeah but to go all the way they just don't hit for a lot of power, and I don't see that changing much without a change of personnel. Other teams just have more of it. On the flip side, the starting pitching is good, it's deep, but outside of Gausman, their advanced stats have them projected more as number three or four starters. If you're going to lose the power game, you have to definitively win the pitching game. The gap between Toronto's top three is not wide enough over other teams' top 3, in some cases other teams have a better top three. Bullpen is a strength. In most series' they would have an advantage here, but that's just not enough. A lot of domino's would have to fall their way.

 

This is a team full of players that have hit for a lot of power in previous seasons so it's not outside the realm of possibility the power bats show up for the playoffs. There are guys like Vlad with 30-40 home run power, and all of Bo, Chapman, Springer and Varsho are capable of 25 home runs in a season so it's not like this is a team full of players with no power. I won't necessarily place money down on enough of the bats getting hot at the right time but at least there's a chance if the talent on the roster performs to their capabilities.

[Olerud363]

Yeah but to go all the way they just don't hit for a lot of power, and I don't see that changing much without a change of personnel. Other teams just have more of it. On the flip side, the starting pitching is good, it's deep, but outside of Gausman, their advanced stats have them projected more as number three or four starters. If you're going to lose the power game, you have to definitively win the pitching game. The gap between Toronto's top three is not wide enough over other teams' top 3, in some cases other teams have a better top three. Bullpen is a strength. In most series' they would have an advantage here, but that's just not enough. A lot of domino's would have to fall their way.

 

It's a weird team though. It's not that they 'don't have power' like this combination of players is a 220 homerun team other years. They aren't hitting for power this year because...

 

Bad hitting tips? Luck ? Psychological Issues? Like a 220 power 'true power' team.

 

Also a philosophical question. For any 20 game run what is the best way to assess the true talent of the team? Maybe the 3 or 5 year average of each player centered on that date. We don't know the future performance obviously, but like this is why I think the 2021 team isn't as good as people think, because they showed in 2022, and 2023 some of the players weren't that good and it just a good 150 game stretch.

 

Like some of the sub 90 win teams that won the World Series (2000 Yankees, 2021 Braves) were actually on a run of 95+ win seasons but having a bad year.

[max silver]

It's a weird team though. It's not that they 'don't have power' like this combination of players is a 220 homerun team other years. They aren't hitting for power this year because...

 

Bad hitting tips? Luck ? Psychological Issues? Like a 220 power 'true power' team.

 

Also a philosophical question. For any 20 game run what is the best way to assess the true talent of the team? Maybe the 3 or 5 year average of each player centered on that date. We don't know the future performance obviously, but like this is why I think the 2021 team isn't as good as people think, because they showed in 2022, and 2023 some of the players weren't that good and it just a good 150 game stretch.

 

Like some of the sub 90 win teams that won the World Series (2000 Yankees, 2021 Braves) were actually on a run of 95+ win seasons but having a bad year.

 

A lot of the Jays hitting issues are centered in their inability to hit for power at the Rogers Center. They have hit 103 home runs away from the Rogers Center but only 77 at home. It seems as though the offseason outfield changes potentially changed the Rogers Center to an extreme pitchers park this season. Perhaps the upcoming reduction of foul territory will help to balance this out a little bit moving forward.

[Olerud363]

World Series Championships (Offense)

 

All types of teams have won, from the obviously cheating KC Royals (I also listed their 2014 stats when they were the closest World Series runner up in recent memory) to the historically powerful 2009 Yankees.

 

Houston Astros 214 homers (2nd) 528 walks (3rd) .319 on base (4th)

Atlanta Braves 239 homers (2nd) 549 walks (8th) .319 on base (6th)

Los Angeles Dodgers 118 homers (1) 228 walks (5th) .338 on base (4th)

Washington Nationals 231 homers (6) 584 walks (4th) .342 on base (1st)

Boston Red Sox 208 homers (6) 569 walks (2) .339 on base (1)

Houston Astros 238 homers (2) 509 walks (10) .346 on base (1)

Chicago Cubs 199 homers (5) 656 walks (1) .343 on base (1)

Kansas City Royals 139 homers (14) 383 walks (15) .322 on base (7)

San Francisco Giants 132 homers (7) 427 walks (11) .311 on base (7)

** Kansas City Royals 95 homers (15) 380 walks (15) .314 on base (9)

Boston Red Sox 178 homers (5) 581 walks (2) .349 on base (1)

San Francisco Giants 103 homers (16) 483 walks (7) .327 on base (4)

St. Louise Cardinals 162 homers (6) 542 walks (3) .341 on base (1)

San Francisco Giants 162 homers (6) 487 walks (13) .321 on base (9)

New York Yankees 244 homers (1) 663 walks (1) .362 on base (1)

 

** Got to bottom of the ninth of game 7 of the World Series, with the tying runner on third with a historically bad offense then ran out of steam...

[Masterbather]

This is a team full of players that have hit for a lot of power in previous seasons so it's not outside the realm of possibility the power bats show up for the playoffs. There are guys like Vlad with 30-40 home run power, and all of Bo, Chapman, Springer and Varsho are capable of 25 home runs in a season so it's not like this is a team full of players with no power. I won't necessarily place money down on enough of the bats getting hot at the right time but at least there's a chance if the talent on the roster performs to their capabilities.

 

Yeah there's a chance but it's just not very likely considering what they've shown this season. I think you pretty much are what you are after 162 games. Especially for it to happen for basically a month of baseball suddenly.

Unfortunately two of their best power hitters per at bat were Jansen and Belt. One has a broken hand the other one has been sick and then hurt and now has missed so much time that I don't even know if it's worth putting him back in the everyday lineup given where his timing will be.

[glory]

The Jays will definitely need to hit more home runs if they make the playoffs and expect to advance. Needing 3-4 hits in order to score in a station to station variety isn’t going to work against good teams, at least not often. They’ll need Vlad, Bo, and Springer specifically to hit more dingers. This is where losing Jansen and Belt really hurt, especially Jansen since the difference between him and Kirk is basically a power hitter vs a slap hitter.

[Masterbather]

A lot of the Jays hitting issues are centered in their inability to hit for power at the Rogers Center. They have hit 103 home runs away from the Rogers Center but only 77 at home. It seems as though the offseason outfield changes potentially changed the Rogers Center to an extreme pitchers park this season. Perhaps the upcoming reduction of foul territory will help to balance this out a little bit moving forward.

 

They pulled an anti-Baltimore Orioles, changed the dimensions and hurt their own team.

[Laika]

The boys are just saving all their homers for the playoffs. Smart when you think about it.

[Jonn]

Is anyone else deeply annoyed that Espinal is on this roster over Clement. Clement was actually impactful on this team. Him not being here for me is such a bad look. Especially replacing him with a pinch runner.

[bones10]

Is anyone else deeply annoyed that Espinal is on this roster over Clement. Clement was actually impactful on this team. Him not being here for me is such a bad look. Especially replacing him with a pinch runner.

 

from what i saw of clement he looked like an awful short stop, Espinal hasn't been great this year but historically hes a good defender.

[connorp]

The boys are just saving all their homers for the playoffs. Smart when you think about it.

 

Maybe we can watch 3 games this year then

[Jonn]

from what i saw of clement he looked like an awful short stop, Espinal hasn't been great this year but historically hes a good defender.

 

Espinal is a horrendous defensive shortstop. Like worse than Bo bad.

 

Neither are good defenders but I feel like Clement can actually hit and run a little bit. Espinal can't do anything but royally suck ass.

[jaysblue]

I mean - if you ask Buck Martinez, I think there's a 90% chance he says pitching & defense wins championships...

 

Joe Morgan as well.

[metafour]

 

Neither are good defenders but I feel like Clement can actually hit and run a little bit. Espinal can't do anything but royally suck ass.

 

1.9 BB% and .391 BABIP for Clement. Dude was just hacking away at every pitch and blooping hits like Merrifield was at his peak during this season (when everything he made contact with in play was falling for a hit).

 

It's very hard to conclude that he's a "better hitter" over what seemed like an unsustainable fluke streak.

[jaysblue]

This is a team full of players that have hit for a lot of power in previous seasons so it's not outside the realm of possibility the power bats show up for the playoffs. There are guys like Vlad with 30-40 home run power, and all of Bo, Chapman, Springer and Varsho are capable of 25 home runs in a season so it's not like this is a team full of players with no power. I won't necessarily place money down on enough of the bats getting hot at the right time but at least there's a chance if the talent on the roster performs to their capabilities.

 

Just need one or two of those guys to get hot in a short series.

[Jimcanuck]

Discussing Jays chances in the playoffs is rather useless. Every non-bye team has a more or less equal chance. We should not be surprised if even the f***ing Twinkies end up as AL champs, by babiping their way to wins.

 

The NL is somewhat different, with Atlanta being a fair bit stronger than the other teams.

[Jonn]

1.9 BB% and .391 BABIP for Clement. Dude was just hacking away at every pitch and blooping hits like Merrifield was at his peak during this season (when everything he made contact with in play was falling for a hit).

 

It's very hard to conclude that he's a "better hitter" over what seemed like an unsustainable fluke streak.

 

I mean you're probably right but in a small sample size down the strech I will take those results.

[bones10]

1.9 BB% and .391 BABIP for Clement. Dude was just hacking away at every pitch and blooping hits like Merrifield was at his peak during this season (when everything he made contact with in play was falling for a hit).

 

It's very hard to conclude that he's a "better hitter" over what seemed like an unsustainable fluke streak.

 

Look at his batting stance/swing path, hes not a good hitter.

[infinitebook]

1.9 BB% and .391 BABIP for Clement. Dude was just hacking away at every pitch and blooping hits like Merrifield was at his peak during this season (when everything he made contact with in play was falling for a hit).

 

It's very hard to conclude that he's a "better hitter" over what seemed like an unsustainable fluke streak.

 

I mean he is also batting .380, even if his BABIP was closer to .300 he still would have good numbers so its not like he was being sustained by luck. He also is batting .348 in AAA, so this has been a good year for him. I do think sticking with Espinal is a better decision, who has swung the bat much better and is a more reliable defender.

[Jonn]

I obviously don't expect Clement to hit .380 the rest of the Season. But I just feel in general he can do a lot more positive things on a Baseball field than Santiago Espinal. Espinal f***ed up his body. That dude can't move and is below average in every defensive and offensive category. He's actually a trainwreck. His Baseball Savant page is like the Baseball equivalent to crippling depression. The fact that he has spent the entire Season on an MLB Roster is nothing short of a miracle.

[Olerud363]

Maybe we can watch 3 games this year then

 

That would change the entire narative of the franchise and the Shapiro/Atkins/Bo/Vlad era from

 

"never won a playoff game"

 

to

 

"never won a playoff series"

 

Can you really be that hard on them for never winning a playoff series? Probably not, if they at least win a playoff game.

[max silver]

Espinal is a horrendous defensive shortstop. Like worse than Bo bad.

 

Neither are good defenders but I feel like Clement can actually hit and run a little bit. Espinal can't do anything but royally suck ass.

 

You need to start paying attention for once. Espinal is one of the team's hottest hitters right now and has produced a ton of important hits lately. Over his last 18 games the dude has a 175 WRC+. He's the team's 4th most valuable position player over this span with 0.5 FWAR. But of course you want to bitch and moan like usual even when a guy is white hot at the plate and really helping the team win.

Edited September 26, 2023 by max silver

[John_Havok]

I obviously don't expect Clement to hit .380 the rest of the Season. But I just feel in general he can do a lot more positive things on a Baseball field than Santiago Espinal. Espinal f***ed up his body. That dude can't move and is below average in every defensive and offensive category. He's actually a trainwreck. His Baseball Savant page is like the Baseball equivalent to crippling depression. The fact that he has spent the entire Season on an MLB Roster is nothing short of a miracle.

 

Clement is a much lighter hitting version of Bichette. Both are hackers with incredible bat to ball skills that makes them swing at more pitches than they should, but Bo has 25+ HR pop, I very much doubt Clement does. Clements entire offensive value will tied the babip gods.

 

He also has defensive flexibility in his favour. He can replace Espinal any day as far as my opinion goes. Clement can do Espinal’s job for league minimum rather than the 3 million or so that he’s in line for.

[Stangstag]

Discussing Jays chances in the playoffs is rather useless. Every non-bye team has a more or less equal chance. We should not be surprised if even the f***ing Twinkies end up as AL champs, by babiping their way to wins.

 

The NL is somewhat different, with Atlanta being a fair bit stronger than the other teams.

 

Still wouldn’t surprise me to see Atlanta get bounced by a team like the Dbacks in the NLDS

[Jimcanuck]

Still wouldn’t surprise me to see Atlanta get bounced by a team like the Dbacks in the NLDS

 

Absolutely, anything can happen. It's all part probability and part luck in the playoffs.

[Masterbather]

Absolutely, anything can happen. It's all part probability and part luck in the playoffs.

 

Talent is still the most important factor. The job of the front office is to put together championship caliber pieces and then the chips will fall as they may. Teams that win are still usually among the best teams, you still rarely see underdogs win it all.