General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[hanton]

There is something fundamentally wrong with this roster and group overall. It's been super frustrating, but serious changes will have to be made this offseason to the roster and coaching staff. This team and FO just aren't as good as some people think. Another wasted opportunity in 2023 from the looks of it unfortunately.

 

Yes.

 

They are finding out the hard way that progression is not linear and it's not easy going from being competitive to being dominant; Shapiro spoke on this a while ago, will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the season is over. Maybe missing the play-offs is better for this team long term - instead of teasing us again by squeking in

[jaysblue]

This is hardly the FO fault. This season is completely on 3 players: Vlad, Manoah, and Kirk. No one else is to blame for this season. All three have hit like their 10th percentile projections, maybe even worse. If these three tubs of lard had even hit their average projections we are probably leading the division.

 

While I place majority of the blame on the players, Atkins and the FO get some blame. They're not as good as other posters on here make them out to be when you look at the bigger picture. We're possibly looking at heading into 2024 without this group even winning a Postseason game. So far the results have been mediocre with this management group. Those are the facts.

[jaysblue]

I f***ing hope not. I still have some hope. So much depends on Vlad doing damage.

 

20 - Blown out in playoffs

21 - Miss playoffs by a game

22 - All time epic Jays playoff meltdown

23 - ?

 

Glass half full we are in the hunt every year.

 

Glass half empty WTF. This is the 7th highest payroll and 11th oldest team in baseball with a narrowing window (arguably) and we haven't so much as won one playoff game (not that that would suffice).

 

I still have some hope as well. Rangers are in free fall from the looks of it. Jays have a favourable schedule and control their own destiny. This team could get into the Postseason and do damage with their rotation and deep bullpen.

 

The window is narrowing every season. We could be heading into 2024 without this team winning a single Postseason game. Put that into perspective.

[BigCecil]

This is hardly the FO fault. This season is completely on 3 players: Vlad, Manoah, and Kirk. No one else is to blame for this season. All three have hit like their 10th percentile projections, maybe even worse. If these three tubs of lard had even hit their average projections we are probably leading the division.

 

OTOH This team has gotten health luck beyond expectations. Even Ryu came back and gave us some quality IP unexpectedly.

 

We could have added more offence at the deadline given the under performance we saw. Belt, KK and Whit have arguably given us more than expected.

 

Under performance, over performance and injuries that wipe out projections, are all part of the game. For every team and FO. Whatever happens good or bad every FO wears some of it.

[jaysblue]

Yes.

 

They are finding out the hard way that progression is not linear and it's not easy going from being competitive to being dominant; Shapiro spoke on this a while ago, will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the season is over. Maybe missing the play-offs is better for this team long term - instead of teasing us again by squeking in

 

That has been one of my criticisms of Atkins thus far - he's built some competitive teams on paper but has failed to take them to the next level during his tenure here. I don't place the entire blame on him obviously, but we're talking about from 2021 to possibly 2024 without even winning a single Postseason game. Even during a time when it's easier to make the Postseason. At least when AA was here, while he wasn't perfect, he did put together a team capable of winning a World Series in 2015, and came pretty darn close.

 

The 2021 team Atkins put together IMO was the best, but yeah we all know how that story ended. Wasted opportunity that season, but I know some posters on here don't like when that is brought up.

[BigCecil]

Yes.

 

They are finding out the hard way that progression is not linear and it's not easy going from being competitive to being dominant; Shapiro spoke on this a while ago, will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the season is over. Maybe missing the play-offs is better for this team long term - instead of teasing us again by squeking in

 

Agree that progression is not linear. I never thought missing the playoffs in '21 was a valuable learning experience. I thought it was a crime. Shapiro said Aug 2017 waves would coming up from the farm. Maybe Schneider and Horwitz etc and some of these guys that are not the top prospect names like Bo and Vlad were coming up, but could add a lot of value cheaply to the team, will be a catalyst. I still want them to make it this year.

[TheHurl]

That has been one of my criticisms of Atkins thus far - he's built some competitive teams on paper but has failed to take them to the next level during his tenure here. I don't place the entire blame on him obviously, but we're talking about from 2021 to possibly 2024 without even winning a single Postseason game. Even during a time when it's easier to make the Postseason. At least when AA was here, while he wasn't perfect, he did put together a team capable of winning a World Series in 2015, and came pretty darn close.

 

The 2021 team Atkins put together IMO was the best, but yeah we all know how that story ended. Wasted opportunity that season, but I know some posters on here don't like when that is brought up.

 

This is the Rays analytics argument for years. Do you judge a front office on playoff success or winning and profit? We know what the fans will say, but explain to me what building playoff successful team looks like? Is there a formula you can copy from the Astros? Braves? Dodgers? It's about building talent, in season talent is the same talent as playoff talent, it is about timing. What is blatantly obvious to me is that this team is not playing up to it's talent level. So whether it is fixing the coaching staff, fixing the programs, fixing a disconnect, something does need to change. Of course a well timed run also buries these issues for a while

[BigCecil]

This is the Rays analytics argument for years. Do you judge a front office on playoff success or winning and profit? We know what the fans will say, but explain to me what building playoff successful team looks like? Is there a formula you can copy from the Astros? Braves? Dodgers? It's about building talent, in season talent is the same talent as playoff talent, it is about timing. What is blatantly obvious to me is that this team is not playing up to it's talent level. So whether it is fixing the coaching staff, fixing the programs, fixing a disconnect, something does need to change. Of course a well timed run also buries these issues for a while

 

I think about that a lot. Attendance is 2nd in MLB. TV ratings top shelf. Stadium renos and a buzz at the RC. We are in the hunt every year since 2020 as frustrating as it can be. Good fortune and luck plays big in this game, along with actual talent, and for whatever reasons it hasn't clicked yet vis a vis playoff wins.

 

But strictly as a business, is Rogers getting exactly what they want from the FO in the way they evaluate each season? They would simply view 90 +/- 3 wins as the business objective/achievement, as it keep fans interested enough - the playoffs are all gravy whatever happens. I do think there is some sustainability risk in this model as major decisions loom on the roster over the next 2-3 years with aging and FA impacts. I'm just a small fry but anecdotally as one fan aka customer...I am going to not attend games I normally would this SEPT given my feeling about this team. But having said that I'll no doubt be watching on TV lol, so I doubt they care.

Edited September 3, 2023 by BigCecil

[glory]

This is the Rays analytics argument for years. Do you judge a front office on playoff success or winning and profit? We know what the fans will say, but explain to me what building playoff successful team looks like? Is there a formula you can copy from the Astros? Braves? Dodgers? It's about building talent, in season talent is the same talent as playoff talent, it is about timing. What is blatantly obvious to me is that this team is not playing up to it's talent level. So whether it is fixing the coaching staff, fixing the programs, fixing a disconnect, something does need to change. Of course a well timed run also buries these issues for a while

 

Yeah I think Rogers is probably happy with the current set up. The Jays don't need to make the playoffs every season, they just need to be competitive more years than not and attendance/revenue should be good. The fans are likely more frustrated with this season than ownership is. Being competitive every year means that the years you miss the playoffs are going to be in the 85-89 win territory. That's where the Jays likely finish this season. Whether it leads to a playoff spot remains to be seen, but I doubt missing the playoffs leads to any massive changes aside from Guillermo being scapegoated (which will probably happen anyway).

[jaysblue]

This is the Rays analytics argument for years. Do you judge a front office on playoff success or winning and profit? We know what the fans will say, but explain to me what building playoff successful team looks like? Is there a formula you can copy from the Astros? Braves? Dodgers? It's about building talent, in season talent is the same talent as playoff talent, it is about timing. What is blatantly obvious to me is that this team is not playing up to it's talent level. So whether it is fixing the coaching staff, fixing the programs, fixing a disconnect, something does need to change. Of course a well timed run also buries these issues for a while

 

It's very possible the Jays under Atkins might miss the Postseason in 2 of the last 3 years during what was considered the prime in their competitive window. It's fair to say thus far Atkins and management have been mediocre when you look at the bigger picture of the past three seasons. If the Jays don't have success, Atkins and the FO wear some of it as does any front office. The window seems like it's narrowing more and more with an aging expensive roster along with Bo's free agency looming, especially since there really isn't much coming up through the farm system.

 

The Rays don't have the payroll as the Blue Jays have. The Rays front office has to work within their confines and resources they have. Considering all those factors, they have done an exceptional job at putting together competitive teams each season. While they haven't won a World Series yet and have had some early Postseason exits, they do make the Postseason at least and put themselves in a good position to have success. Their scouting and player development is on another level. I wouldn't compare them with Atkins and the Blue Jays at all.

 

From a business perspective, Shapiro has done a fantastic job with the team. He's changed the in-game experiences at the Rogers Centre, which has definitely helped with attendance and team revenue. He's also raised the damn prices of everything haha but oh well. The Jays are raking in every season. Shapiro has put together a very successful business model for Rogers.

 

Like you said, something does need to change. You can't keep the status quo this offseason. I still think Atkins deserves a chance to right the ship for 2024, though he's on a very short leash.

[BigCecil]

 

From a business perspective, Shapiro has done a fantastic job with the team. He's changed the in-game experiences at the Rogers Centre, which has definitely helped with attendance and team revenue. He's also raised the damn prices of everything haha but oh well. The Jays are raking in every season. Shapiro has put together a very successful business model for Rogers.

 

 

Not as convinced. I get the argument, but we'll see. Its hard to argue that investments in the development facilities and the RC won't pay off, if not now eventually. I think the full story will be written on that determination and its sustainability over the next 3-5 years as they navigate some very big decisions. I think he will still be here then though to round out a decade + at the helm.

[gruber92]

Yeah I think Rogers is probably happy with the current set up. The Jays don't need to make the playoffs every season, they just need to be competitive more years than not and attendance/revenue should be good. The fans are likely more frustrated with this season than ownership is. Being competitive every year means that the years you miss the playoffs are going to be in the 85-89 win territory. That's where the Jays likely finish this season. Whether it leads to a playoff spot remains to be seen, but I doubt missing the playoffs leads to any massive changes aside from Guillermo being scapegoated (which will probably happen anyway).

 

If we miss the playoffs and Ross is still the GM next season, then Shapiro isn't being the responsible President that ownership expects and will shift some focus on him. If Shapiro is smart, and I said this many times, he'll fire his buddy and move on. Otherwise, he'll be bringing unwanted attention towards himself.

[jaysblue]

Not as convinced. I get the argument, but we'll see. I think the full story will be written on that determination and its sustainability over the next 3-5 years as they navigate some very big decisions. I think he will still be here then though.

 

Yeah the team needs to keep 85-90 win seasons sustainable over the next 3-5 years in order for Shapiro's business model to succeed. After 2024 or 2025 for that matter, not sure what the crystal ball holds.

 

There definitely was a lot of buzz with the new renovations such as the rooftop patios and there will be buzz next April as well with the new Club Infield 100 section. Mostly among the casuals who never even watch baseball. It could very well be a short-lived fad, especially if the team starts to have a couple 70 win seasons afterwards. Also, casual fans might not be able to justify the expensive prices if the team is not competitive.

[bones10]

56-53 since April, they went 18-9 in that month.... Outside of one month this team has been mediocre as f***.

[BigCecil]

Yeah the team needs to keep 85-90 win seasons sustainable over the next 3-5 years in order for Shapiro's business model to succeed. After 2024 or 2025 for that matter, not sure what the crystal ball holds.

 

There definitely was a lot of buzz with the new renovations such as the rooftop patios and there will be buzz next April as well with the new Club Infield 100 section. Mostly among the casuals who never even watch baseball. It could very well be a short-lived fad, especially if the team starts to have a couple 70 win seasons afterwards. Also, casual fans might not be able to justify the expensive prices if the team is not competitive.

 

Its all got that new car smell - we are a 90 ish W team. He is convincing owners to make some ballsy big bets that we all get - but can't yet fully be assessed on their success or failure. Net net I'm glad they are making them. But I'd trade all that for a deep run and throw in a kidney for another WS ring, purely as a Jays fan.

[jaysblue]

56-53 since April, they went 18-9 in that month.... Outside of one month this team has been mediocre as f***.

 

I remember in April there were some games where the Jays had some gutsy wins and pulled out wins in games they had no business of winning. I said in one of the threads that these are exactly the types of games this team to needs to win. Gave me a sense this season was going to be different.

 

Crazy how this team since April has only been 56-53.

[Nursehoneybadger]

There was no chance this team was going 12-3. Figured 10-5 was reasonable and maybe is still possible. Today is must win because we can gain 1 or 2 games on Texas if we can sweep Oakland and have wildcard by Wednesday.

[glory]

56-53 since April, they went 18-9 in that month.... Outside of one month this team has been mediocre as f***.

 

The balanced schedule likely saved a lot of jobs in Toronto. If this were the unbalanced schedule days, it would have been ugly.

[Spanky99]

Yep. I hope the splitter splits at Coors.

 

Going into this "weak schedule" stretch Buck (I know I know) said we needed to go 12-3. Its like a bad dream we are 4-4. This team will drive you mad.

 

We have to start today stringing together W's. TEX is a good team - expect them to pull out of this swoon. Same for HOU.

 

SEA is unconscious - JROD stepping up. Compared to Vlad's .375 slug - Teo slugging .636 .355 avg with 8 bombs/26 RBIs his last 30 games. Just sayin' not sayin'

 

lol

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-unusual-replacement-level-season.html

 

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season

By Mark Polishuk | September 3, 2023 at 10:45am CDT

 

The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket. However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.

 

Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense. Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position. Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.

 

“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag. When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.

 

It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette. While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.

 

And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck. No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

 

The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time. Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.

 

Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign. Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.

 

Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA. While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023. For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.

 

While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground. Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span. Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.

 

Guerrero has always had pretty higher groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year. He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power. The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.

 

As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons. It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July. Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

 

Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre. Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season. Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.

 

The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters. Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production. And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.

 

Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense. Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons. The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.

 

Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him. Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block. He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.

 

The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet. However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.

 

A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs. But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.

[jaysthebest]

Like majority of people expected, Vladdy is batting 3rd again! JS doesn't have the balls to move him down or bench him.

 

This team is unserious.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

lol vlad batting 3rd again. It's like watching Pujols decline with the Angels in real time. So fun.

[gruber92]

In what present scenario should you have Vladdy hitting third and ahead of Schneider? It's like we're comfortably in a playoff spot and management is just sticking to the template all scared little boys stick to with the "seasoned vet" hitting ahead of the younger hot bat. This team under current leadership is going nowhere fast.

[Spanky99]

While I place majority of the blame on the players, Atkins and the FO get some blame. They're not as good as other posters on here make them out to be when you look at the bigger picture. We're possibly looking at heading into 2024 without this group even winning a Postseason game. So far the results have been mediocre with this management group. Those are the facts.

 

Again.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Vlad simultaneously gets the benefit of the doubt of being a seasoned vet and a young player at the same time. "You can't move him down he's a vet he'll figure it out" and "Don't worry he's just young he'll figure it out" lol. Infuriating.

[Stangstag]

In what present scenario should you have Vladdy hitting third and ahead of Schneider? It's like we're comfortably in a playoff spot and management is just sticking to the template all scared little boys stick to with the "seasoned vet" hitting ahead of the younger hot bat. This team under current leadership is going nowhere fast.

 

Right, they’re fine with moving down everyone else except for Vlad. Not exactly sure why

[spats]

Right, they’re fine with moving down everyone else except for Vlad. Not exactly sure why

 

I don't understand how he gets such a long leash from management considering his antics and lack of production. With any other player, these issues would have been addressed ( Bo last year)

[jaysblue]

Right, they’re fine with moving down everyone else except for Vlad. Not exactly sure why

 

If they move Vlad down, he'll likely get all pissy and throw a tantrum.

[jaysblue]

I don't understand how he gets such a long leash from management considering his antics and lack of production. With any other player, these issues would have been addressed ( Bo last year)

 

Beta's are running this team, that's why!

[goldbug103]

Who cares. This is supposed to be a team game. He can tantrum on another team. Being the greatest bust of all time on my Jays has ruined the baseball watching experience. He needs to go ASAP or be hidden down in the lineup where he belongs or sit on the bench.