General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[bluejaysinternNo5]

It's an economic question.

 

connorp doesn't get it and never will but that's okay because he works in hospitality, and not economics or finance.

 

Hopefully LetTheBallFly works with his hands or is going into nursing or something overly practical.

 

Lives in the hands of LTBF is the scariest thing I’ve read all week.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

It’s not an economic question. I laid it out. There’s not a good response

 

A good 1b is penalized because they stick some bad ones there sometimes

 

omg

[connorp]

omg

 

What’s hard to get here. You want to put everyone in a bubble because there’s a lot of subpar unskilled people stuck at 1b. So you want to generally devalue the position. Ok. So when someone playing 1b brings skill to the position, it’s easier to just disregard the positive contribution.

 

This is the opposite to how things work in the real world. Like if I want to make generalizations about African American people based on data looping them together, it’d be racist

 

If you want to make generalizations, it’s fine. But you don’t want to always see things through that lens

[bluejaysinternNo5]

What’s hard to get here. You want to put everyone in a bubble because there’s a lot of subpar unskilled people stuck at 1b. So you want to generally devalue the position. Ok. So when someone playing 1b brings skill to the position, it’s easier to just disregard the positive contribution.

 

This is the opposite to how things work in the real world. Like if I want to make generalizations about African American people based on data looping them together, it’d be racist

 

If you want to make generalizations, it’s fine. But you don’t want to always see things through that lens

 

Nobodies defensive contributions at 1b is disregarded. It’s just players who play at 1b start with a defensive handicap, since if they were any better they would play literally any other position.

 

Theoretically, if a player at 1b were so good at 1b that they completely overcame that handicap, they would be moved to another position such as third base, because it easier to find a player to play 1b than 3b, and the player has shown the ability to play 3b.

 

This is why we let Vlad fail at 3b for a whole year - because if he could play an average 3b, then we could just keep signing Brandon Belts to cheap one year deals instead of having to keep trading prospects or spending 20M+ a year in free agency to acquire Matt Chapmans.

 

It’s an economics thing.

[The Cats Ass]

Nobodies defensive contributions at 1b is disregarded. It’s just players who play at 1b start with a defensive handicap, since if they were any better they would play literally any other position.

 

Theoretically, if a player at 1b were so good at 1b that they completely overcame that handicap, they would be moved to another position such as third base, because it easier to find a player to play 1b than 3b, and the player has shown the ability to play 3b.

 

This is why we let Vlad fail at 3b for a whole year - because if he could play an average 3b, then we could just keep signing Brandon Belts to cheap one year deals instead of having to keep trading prospects or spending 20M+ a year in free agency to acquire Matt Chapmans.

 

It’s an economics thing.

 

Christian Walker is probably a good example. He's almost good enough to beat the handicap, one of the current best at 1B. But he'd probably be nearing the bottom of any other position since he's slow as f*** and throws like a little girl.

[connorp]

Should be penalize a C because he wouldn’t cut it as a SS? Different skill set. Speed isn’t a factor but his contribution isn’t less important

[Laika]

Should be penalize a C because he wouldn’t cut it as a SS? Different skill set. Speed isn’t a factor but his contribution isn’t less important

 

No, because competent defensive catchers are scarce.

 

Competent defensive 1B are not scarce.

[connorp]

You guys don’t equate picking and scooping to something akin to making a great catch in the OF. That’s ok. To each their own. A made or missed scoop/pick is just as likely to impact a game as any other difficult play

[Brownie19]

You guys don’t equate picking and scooping to something akin to making a great catch in the OF. That’s ok. To each their own. A made or missed scoop/pick is just as likely to impact a game as any other difficult play

 

Of course scooping/picking is a skill. What part of "competent defensive 1B are not scarce" didn't you understand?

[connorp]

No, because competent defensive catchers are scarce.

 

Competent defensive 1B are not scarce.

 

I’m not sure they’re that scarce. They just need to be able to hit enough to justify rostering

[wilko]

Both plays could make an impact in the game. Absolutely. But making a great catch in the outfield is much more difficult than a good scoop. I can scoop the ball. I’d look like a fool running around the outfield.

 

There’s a reason there’s highlights and montages and people talking about catches Mickey Mantle made however many years ago and no one is gushing about Lou Gehrig’s scoops.

 

Great ice cream spot!

[John_Havok]

You guys don’t equate picking and scooping to something akin to making a great catch in the OF. That’s ok. To each their own. A made or missed scoop/pick is just as likely to impact a game as any other difficult play

 

And overall as mentioned by Tom in the other thread, over the course of a season... thousands of plays, 1 guy vs the next might be +/- 2-3 runs vs the average 1B. It's a thing, it's just not that different from one 1b to the next.

[Laika]

I’m not sure they’re that scarce. They just need to be able to hit enough to justify rostering

 

the replacement level C who can catch at an MLB level are like, 60 wRC+ hitters

 

the replacement level 1B who can play 1B at an MLB level is like, a 100 wRC+ hitter

[connorp]

And overall as mentioned by Tom in the other thread, over the course of a season... thousands of plays, 1 guy vs the next might be +/- 2-3 runs vs the average 1B. It's a thing, it's just not that different from one 1b to the next.

 

Formula problem. You probably shouldn’t weigh the thousands of routine pitch-and-catch outs so heavily, and instead focus more of the harder plays

 

Anyways, that’s it for me on the topic

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Formula problem. You probably shouldn’t weigh the thousands of routine pitch-and-catch outs so heavily, and instead focus more of the harder plays

 

Anyways, that’s it for me on the topic

 

Then make your own formula and prove its correctness my guy.

[John_Havok]

Formula problem. You probably shouldn’t weigh the thousands of routine pitch-and-catch outs so heavily, and instead focus more of the harder plays

 

Anyways, that’s it for me on the topic

 

I'm not weighing the routine plays, I'm willing to bet there are thousands of pick, jump and stretch catches by 1b across baseball every year that are easily comparable by people who have access to the data. Take any average Jays game with Vlad alone and you see probably 3-5 every game. double that(2 teams playing in every game) and multiply by the total number of games in a season and you have a quick and dirty estimate of the number of total plays that fit that description. That would easily number in the thousands. Then, youd have to grade them by degree of difficulty and makeability using readily available statcast data (readily available to them... not us) and then see who makes more or less than average and break down the run assessments to each make or miss. The vast majority of these plays get made.

 

I think you are currently under the belief that even the average 1b doesn't make as many routine or even semi-hard picks on a regular basis... when they do.

[connorp]

I'm not weighing the routine plays, I'm willing to bet there are thousands of pick, jump and stretch catches by 1b across baseball every year that are easily comparable by people who have access to the data. Take any average Jays game with Vlad alone and you see probably 3-5 every game. double that(2 teams playing in every game) and multiply by the total number of games in a season and you have a quick and dirty estimate of the number of total plays that fit that description. That would easily number in the thousands. Then, youd have to grade them by degree of difficulty and makeability using readily available statcast data (readily available to them... not us) and then see who makes more or less than average and break down the run assessments to each make or miss. The vast majority of these plays get made.

 

I think you are currently under the belief that even the average 1b doesn't make as many routine or even semi-hard picks on a regular basis... when they do.

 

The vast majority of plays at all position get made. There’s a very thin line that separates everyone and will show over time. 1b is no different

[John_Havok]

The vast majority of plays at all position get made. There’s a very thin line that separates everyone and will show over time. 1b is no different

 

The line at 1b is probably much much much thinner than most when specifically referencing picks from the dirt and other such events.

[The Cats Ass]

You guys don’t equate picking and scooping to something akin to making a great catch in the OF. That’s ok. To each their own. A made or missed scoop/pick is just as likely to impact a game as any other difficult play

 

Picking and scooping is a skill any mlb player could learn in 1 spring training. Most other infielders could probably do it better, after a short training session. They have better hands.

[Daniel Labude]

Picking and scooping is a skill any mlb player could learn in 1 spring training. Most other infielders could probably do it better, after a short training session. They have better hands.

 

[connorp]

Picking and scooping is a skill any mlb player could learn in 1 spring training. Most other infielders could probably do it better, after a short training session. They have better hands.

 

What’s a 3b do really? Only so much speed can help you when ball is hit 100mph and needs to go 90ft.

[Daniel Labude]

You guys don’t equate picking and scooping to something akin to making a great catch in the OF. That’s ok. To each their own. A made or missed scoop/pick is just as likely to impact a game as any other difficult play

 

The picking and scooping should definitely be more valued than it is...by a lot imo

[John_Havok]

The picking and scooping should definitely be more valued than it is...by a lot imo

 

Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst.

 

I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.

[Spanky99]

Morons, everywhere!

[connorp]

Morons, everywhere!

 

Like your understanding of wRC+? Lol

[Terminator]

1B aren't as valuable because the position demands the least amount of physical tools.

 

Scooping/picking throws in the dirt and feeding the pitcher covering the bag don't require a great arm or a ton of speed. Therefore the pool of MLB players who could possibly man the position is extremely high. Now that doesn't mean that just because you meet he minimum physical requirements (which nearly everyone who steps on an MLB diamond meets, save for a few) doesn't mean you'll be good at it. But you can at least try to play the position and odds are with enough reps you might even be able to do it adequately.

 

Compare that to SS or CF. You WILL have to have a minimum amount of foot speed and arm strength to play those positions. If you don't have those physical tools, you will never be adequate at it no matter how many reps you take or how good you are at the technical aspects of the position, etc.

 

If you want a real life example, use Christian Walker. He's seemingly the best defensive 1B by far and he's got 25th percentile sprint speed and 5th percentile arm strength. He simply cannot play anywhere else adequately while being THAT slow and with an arm THAT bad. Yet he's still the best defensive 1B in all of MLB.

[Brownie19]

Formula problem. You probably shouldn’t weigh the thousands of routine pitch-and-catch outs so heavily, and instead focus more of the harder plays

 

Anyways, that’s it for me on the topic

 

That's great news.

[Spanky99]

Like your understanding of wRC+? Lol

 

Moron...

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10602-General-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread-(2023)?p=1710829&viewfull=1#post1710829

[connorp]

That's great news.

 

You’re hoping the people in the circle will accept you again?

[Brownie19]

You’re hoping the people in the circle will accept you again?

 

um, no. I don't really care who likes me because I'm not 12 anymore.