General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Dick_Pole]

 

I wonder how this ties in to team win projections because IIRC the Fangraphs projection was around 90 for the Jays but with this kind of projection for the hitters I would think it's close to 100.

[Brownie19]

I think the dynamic would probably be the nerd going through all the very raw data and put together the trends for Ware and Walker to use when they talk to the pitchers. I have a hard time picturing Walker going over mounds of spin rates, pitch selections, sequencing and whatever other data they get by the ton from their various sources on every guy.

 

I'm pretty sure this guy was hired to be Pete's DD. They just gave him a fancy title.

[Stangstag]

I wonder how this ties in to team win projections because IIRC the Fangraphs projection was around 90 for the Jays but with this kind of projection for the hitters I would think it's close to 100.

 

Varsho’s projection is pretty outlandish LOL but i’d be super happy if he hit anywhere near that

[John_Havok]

Varsho’s projection is pretty outlandish LOL but i’d be super happy if he hit anywhere near that

 

No doubt, I'd love to get my hands on the math that equated out to a 132 wRC+. according to MLB, "The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations."

 

His minor league numbers are probably still weighing in pretty large

[Deadpool]

Varsho’s projection is pretty outlandish LOL but i’d be super happy if he hit anywhere near that

 

I assume they really overvalue the new shift rules? Maybe they project more homers from the park, but wRC+ is park adjusted so I dunno where they're getting that number. I love it though!

[max silver]

I assume they really overvalue the new shift rules? Maybe they project more homers from the park, but wRC+ is park adjusted so I dunno where they're getting that number. I love it though!

 

I typically push back against projections that are far too low as projection systems are typically slow to fully recognize when a player unlocks a new level of skill. This seems the opposite of that however in how overly high this projection appears. To Varsho's credit he did have a much stronger second half of the season offensively at it appears as though some mechanical changes have led to improved success at the plate.

[The_DH]

I think the dynamic would probably be the nerd going through all the very raw data and put together the trends for Ware and Walker to use when they talk to the pitchers. I have a hard time picturing Walker going over mounds of spin rates, pitch selections, sequencing and whatever other data they get by the ton from their various sources on every guy.

 

Anybody know what Howell does/or is qualified to do?

[John_Havok]

Anybody know what Howell does/or is qualified to do?

 

Assistant Pitching Coach - Strategy.

 

My guess, is that he sifts all the data they get, identifiies trends (positive or negative) and gives the info to Walker to use at his discretion. As for his qualifications.... he's a nerd with a degree and has spent a few years doing baseball s***.

 

"David Howell completed his baseball playing career at Dassel-Cokato High School in 2016. He attended the University of Minnesota and completed his degree program in Management Information Systems in just two and one-half years, graduating in December of 2018. Having a passion for baseball, he applied for numerous baseball-related jobs but initially had no success. That changed in 2019 as his experimenting with sabermetrics brought him to the attention of the baseball world.

 

Howell worked as a R&D Intern for Driveline Baseball in the summer of 2019 before spending the fall term at Louisiana State University in Shreveport. In Shreveport he worked with head coach Brent Lavallee to incorporate metrics into their baseball training program. The Toronto Blue Jays hired both men to work in their minor league system for 2020.

 

Howell was scheduled to work as the development coach for the Buffalo Bisons before COVID-19 forced the 2020 minor league season to be cancelled."

 

 

Management Information Systems (MIS) is the study of people, technology, organizations, and the relationships among them. MIS professionals help firms realize maximum benefit from investment in personnel, equipment, and business processes. MIS is a people-oriented field with an emphasis on service through technology.

 

Key takeaways - he did a 4 year degree in 2 and a half years, so he's probably not un-smart.

[The_DH]

Assistant Pitching Coach - Strategy.

 

My guess, is that he sifts all the data they get, identifiies trends (positive or negative) and gives the info to Walker to use at his discretion. As for his qualifications.... he's a nerd with a degree and has spent a few years doing baseball s***.

 

"David Howell completed his baseball playing career at Dassel-Cokato High School in 2016. He attended the University of Minnesota and completed his degree program in Management Information Systems in just two and one-half years, graduating in December of 2018. Having a passion for baseball, he applied for numerous baseball-related jobs but initially had no success. That changed in 2019 as his experimenting with sabermetrics brought him to the attention of the baseball world.

 

Howell worked as a R&D Intern for Driveline Baseball in the summer of 2019 before spending the fall term at Louisiana State University in Shreveport. In Shreveport he worked with head coach Brent Lavallee to incorporate metrics into their baseball training program. The Toronto Blue Jays hired both men to work in their minor league system for 2020.

 

Howell was scheduled to work as the development coach for the Buffalo Bisons before COVID-19 forced the 2020 minor league season to be cancelled."

 

 

Management Information Systems (MIS) is the study of people, technology, organizations, and the relationships among them. MIS professionals help firms realize maximum benefit from investment in personnel, equipment, and business processes. MIS is a people-oriented field with an emphasis on service through technology.

 

Key takeaways - he did a 4 year degree in 2 and a half years, so he's probably not un-smart.

 

Makes sense, that he's basically the data analyst and Walker and Ware are more on the mechanics side.

[wamco]

I'm pretty sure this guy was hired to be Pete's DD. They just gave him a fancy title.

 

DDriveline

[glory]

Varsho with a 132 wRC+ is one of the best players in baseball. Would love to see it happen, but I'll take the under on that one.

[Deadpool]

I typically push back against projections that are far too low as projection systems are typically slow to fully recognize when a player unlocks a new level of skill. This seems the opposite of that however in how overly high this projection appears. To Varsho's credit he did have a much stronger second half of the season offensively at it appears as though some mechanical changes have led to improved success at the plate.

 

I do actually expect the rules to have an impact on Varsho, and I think we'll probably see an improvement on his 106 wRC+ from last year, but 132 seems like a stretch, and is an outlier among projection systems.

[Laika]

That Varsho projection is wacky for some reason. ZIPS also has his defense as not good which makes no sense.

 

But the rest of those projections are perfectly reasonable. Toronto is good.

 

The Chapman one might be like 10% too high. Belt, it's more about playing time than talent. He could put up a 130 wRC+ and be worth nothing if he only lasts 30 games. But he had 150 and 170 wRC+ marks in 2020 and 2021...

 

I think the Vlad proj is actually worse than the other projection systems?

[Omar]

This didn't sound too bad to me. Manoah has to be thicker skinned.

 

 

[jaysblue]

As much as I like Manoah, he seems like the next Stroman in terms of personality.

[Grant77]

As much as I like Manoah, he seems like the next Stroman in terms of personality.

 

He's very thin skinned and overly sensitive, that's for sure.

[jaysblue]

He's very thin skinned and overly sensitive, that's for sure.

 

Also seems on the arrogant side as well. But yeah definitely very thin skinned and overly sensitive. Kind of a turn off for me.

[Jimcanuck]

One short, one fat, same sensitivity.

[Captain_Obvious]

Also seems on the arrogant side as well. But yeah definitely very thin skinned and overly sensitive. Kind of a turn off for me.

 

Yea. Me too. I would never sleep with him.

[Spanky99]

As much as I like Manoah, he seems like the next Stroman in terms of personality.

 

I thought the same, lol.

[Spanky99]

Yea. Me too. I would never sleep with him.

 

lol... Well played.

[JaysAllMighty]

Nothing wrong with Manoah. I like his aggressiveness and he doesn't have a personality disorder like the Stroman Small Man syndrome.

[glory]

Manoah is coming off a top 3 Cy Young season and he has a career scrub telling him to hit the gym on MLB's main network. I could understand why he'd be annoyed. If it was Pedro Martinez saying that, then Manoah's reaction probably would have been different.

[connorp]

Manoah is coming off a top 3 Cy Young season and he has a career scrub telling him to hit the gym on MLB's main network. I could understand why he'd be annoyed. If it was Pedro Martinez saying that, then Manoah's reaction probably would have been different.

 

A little too much bravado for me but he’s still my favorite Jay pitcher

[Stangstag]

This didn't sound too bad to me. Manoah has to be thicker skinned.

 

 

 

Lol that clip is so odd. He talks about how Manoah needs to spend more time in the gym, then the very next sentence says he would take Triston Mckenzie over Alek long-term.

 

Triston Mckenzie probably should spend more time in the gym, a stiff breeze could cause him to lose his balance on the mound.

[The Cats Ass]

That Varsho projection is wacky for some reason. ZIPS also has his defense as not good which makes no sense.

 

But the rest of those projections are perfectly reasonable. Toronto is good.

 

The Chapman one might be like 10% too high. Belt, it's more about playing time than talent. He could put up a 130 wRC+ and be worth nothing if he only lasts 30 games. But he had 150 and 170 wRC+ marks in 2020 and 2021...

 

I think the Vlad proj is actually worse than the other projection systems?

 

Would they be weighing in Varsho's wRC+ from the high minors (AA/AAA)? When looking at age and everything he was extremely impressive at both stop.

 

In 2019 at AA he was 2nd with 159wRC+, 1st was an overage Chris Gittens. He only had 18 games at AAA, but put up a 161 wRC+.

[Spanky99]

[Spanky99]

Anthony Recker... *cries laughing*

[wilko]

Anthony Recker... the dude that was part of those terrible Apple streams. He's stiff as a board and a scrub. Manoah should have just replied with "Who?".

[Dick_Pole]

Meh. Manoah is still 25 so he has time to mature. What do they say? The brain completes development at age 26 or something? Stroman was 28 by the time he really wore out his welcome here. And Stroman was a steady stream of consistently annoying behaviour. So far I count three Manoah outbursts. This, the time he defended Kirk, and the Cole cheating accusation. So once he was defending a teammate and the other time he was just being truthful to a question he was asked, whether you agree with him or not.