Around Baseball 2023

[Jimcanuck]

If Toronto waits a year:

 

Soto

Bregman

Alonso

Burnes

Fried

Buehler

Wheeler

Altuve

 

Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade.

 

It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.

 

This may well be part of the reason why, with the exception of Ohtani and Yama, the free agent market has seemed slow this year. The market bakes everything in.

[Brownie19]

If Toronto waits a year:

 

Soto

Bregman

Alonso

Burnes

Fried

Buehler

Wheeler

Altuve

 

Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade.

 

It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.

 

Interesting take - I'd probably agree that at this point, the best move for the medium-long term is for Atkins to fill holes with veteran stopgaps and rely on internal improvements from the cast of characters who s*** the bed last year (Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Varsho, etc.) - along with some rookies who may be ready to step up (Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, etc.).

 

But I can already hear the 'jays' fans calling for Atkins head if that doesn't exactly work out and the results aren't there. Completely unable to appreciate the position they are in, the limited options and long term implications of those decisions. Unable to realize that all options have a range of potential outcomes and even if you make the best decisions, they don't always work out. I'm fascinated to see how this all plays out.

[L54]

I think Toronto can afford to get the best 1-year guys in 2024 instead of maximizing their 2024 wins at all cost to the future. Maybe Atkins can't though.

 

Yup I do too and makes the most sense

[L54]

And why would the market price for free agents next year be any lower (likely higher) than this year? In addition, Soto, Bregman, Wheeler, etc might not even be free agents.

 

Or, after the market sets the prices next year, will JB again suggest sitting out and pursuing the 2026 free agents?

 

Is anybody advocating for slashing payroll or sitting out the market? I haven’t seen this argument

[Jimcanuck]

I don't understand it either. He had to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points to get to a 4-WAR, and Steamer projects him at 2.5 WAR. Basically the same projection as Kepler, who's a 10M commitment and who the Twins have seemingly been trying to trade for a year now

 

Steamer projections are based on the past 4 years of performance and an aging curve. If it's purely numerical with no manual adjustments, the 2.5 WAR is based in part on a couple of years when Bellinger battled injuries and had to change his swing. I expect the internal projections of MLB teams are quite different, and probably project somewhere north of 3 WAR for Bellinger for 2024.

[Jimcanuck]

Is anybody advocating for slashing payroll or sitting out the market? I haven’t seen this argument

 

Did JB not say to sit out on high priced free agents this year so they’re able to pursue next years free agents?

 

You answered your own question.

[max silver]

Former MVP winner. Also plays much better D. Younger. But yeah everyone here pretty much agrees he's not worth more than 150 million.

 

He's just so hard to know what to expect moving forward. His quality of contact metrics are less than inspiring and appear to support results in the 110-120 wRC+ range, but I can't help but look at Jose Altuve for nearly his entire career and wonder if Bellinger might be in a similar mold of a guy that outperforms his expected stats year over year. Check out the kind of splits that Altuve runs year in and year out in all in nearly all of his good seasons:

 

2015 wOBA .347 xWOBA .300 .047 split

2016 wOBA .391 xWOBA .385 .006 split

2017 wOBA .405 xWOBA .360 .045 split

2018 wOBA .363 xWOBA .352 .010 split

2019 wOBA .374 xWOBA .344 .030 split

2020 wOBA .278 xWOBA .288 -0.010 split

2021 wOBA .357 xWOBA .332 .025 split

2022 wOBA .397 xWOBA .354 .043 split

2023 wOBA .393 xWOBA .336 .057 split

 

Jose Altuve has ran sizeable splits between his on field results and expected stats for 6 of his 9 seasons in the Statcast era so in his case this is a phenomenon that has been very repeatable and is reasonable to expect year over year. Bellinger ran a split of 0.041 between his results and expected results in 2023. He's only done this once in his career, but I will be interested to discover whether this was a single year anomaly or something that he can repeat moving forward with a low bat speed/high bat control kind of approach.

[L54]

You answered your own question.

 

Not paying Cody Bellinger 175M does not equal not slashing payroll. Not sure why you’re being disingenuous about this

[Laika]

When people say they want Toronto to sign the 1 year veterans for 2024, they are not saying run back the Belt/KK plays.

 

Those were cute little upside plays. $10M or less for players that gave the team 2 WAR. There is no reason to be cute again and think you can do that. Maybe with one of the open positions, but not all three.

 

No, even on 1 year deals Toronto should be serious about this. Give JDM $20M if that is what he wants. Give Hoskins $22M to DH if that is what it takes. Justin Turner might be a great fit, pay him. Overpay by a couple million bucks for Pham or Duvall or whoever you think is the BEST 1 year LF option, to insure the position.

[Jimcanuck]

Not paying Cody Bellinger 175M does not equal not slashing payroll. Not sure why you’re being disingenuous about this

 

You said "sitting out the market".

[L54]

You said "sitting out the market".

 

Correct. I asked is anybody advocating to sit out the market. Are they?

[L54]

I think Jim asked for a custom Blue Jays Bellinger jersey for Christmas and is now starting to sweat

[Jimcanuck]

Correct. I asked is anybody advocating to sit out the market. Are they?

 

Yes. Jaysblue is advocating for sitting out this year's market and save the money for next year. This is what I was responding to originally.

[L54]

Yes. Jaysblue is advocating for sitting out this year's market and save the money for next year. This is what I was responding to originally.

 

Quote please

[Laika]

RF - Springer

SS - Bo

1B - Vlad

DH - Pederson

3B - Turner

2B - Schneider

C - Kirk/Jansen

LF - Pham

CF - Varsho

 

BN - Kirk/Jansen, Espinal, Gallo, Horwitz/Clement

 

This lineup is pretty deep and it can be done with only 1 year commitments (probably). Yeah, LF and 3B are flaky because those guys are geezers but between guys like Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, Palmegiani, Lantigua, Alan Roden, the team might have a few good depth options for those positions as well as 2B.

 

Could also sacrifice offense for someone at 3B who can more certainly play the position, like Tim Anderson, Donovan Solano, Urshela, IKF, I dunno.

[Jimcanuck]

I think Jim asked for a custom Blue Jays Bellinger jersey for Christmas and is now starting to sweat

 

How do you know this?

[L54]

RF - Springer

SS - Bo

1B - Vlad

DH - Pederson

3B - Turner

2B - Schneider

C - Kirk/Jansen

LF - Pham

CF - Varsho

 

BN - Kirk/Jansen, Espinal, Gallo, Horwitz/Clement

 

This lineup is pretty deep and it can be done with only 1 year commitments (probably). Yeah, LF and 3B are flaky because those guys are geezers but between guys like Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, Palmegiani, Lantigua, Alan Roden, the team might have a few good depth options for those positions as well as 2B.

 

Could also sacrifice offense for someone at 3B who can more certainly play the position, like Tim Anderson, Donovan Solano, Urshela, IKF, I dunno.

 

This is the way

[L54]

How do you know this?

 

Sources

[Jimcanuck]

RF - Springer

SS - Bo

1B - Vlad

DH - Pederson

3B - Turner

2B - Schneider

C - Kirk/Jansen

LF - Pham

CF - Varsho

 

BN - Kirk/Jansen, Espinal, Gallo, Horwitz/Clement

 

This lineup is pretty deep and it can be done with only 1 year commitments (probably). Yeah, LF and 3B are flaky because those guys are geezers but between guys like Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, Palmegiani, Lantigua, Alan Roden, the team might have a few good depth options for those positions as well as 2B.

 

Could also sacrifice offense for someone at 3B who can more certainly play the position, like Tim Anderson, Donovan Solano, Urshela, IKF, I dunno.

 

And rinse/repeat for the next 20 years? Hello mediocrity!

 

Gimme Hoskins and Bellinger, and let's take a real shot at postseason success.

 

SS - Bo

1B - Vlad

RF - Bellinger

DH - Hoskins

LF - Springer

2B - Biggio/Schneider

C - Kirk/Jansen

3B - Barger

CF - Varsho

[Laika]

And rinse/repeat for the next 20 years? Hello mediocrity!

 

Gimme Hoskins and Bellinger, and let's take a real shot at postseason success.

 

SS - Bo

1B - Vlad

RF - Bellinger

DH - Hoskins

LF - Springer

2B - Biggio/Schneider

C - Kirk/Jansen

3B - Barger

CF - Varsho

 

your dum

[Laika]

my spider sense says there is a chance Chapman will sign for like 4/$80

 

that would be okay with me

[Jimcanuck]

your dum

 

Only 2 years of Vlad and Bo left! Time to go big or go home!

[G-Snarls]

my spider sense says there is a chance Chapman will sign for like 4/$80

 

that would be okay with me

 

I'd be fine with that

[Laika]

Only 2 years of Vlad and Bo left! Time to go big or go home!

 

kindly stop being dum

 

Vlad is a middling 1B. Almost irrelevant to the competitive "window" at this point. It would be foolish to construct any timelines or fabricate urgency around a man of his "talents."

 

We are firmly within the Davis Schneider window now.

[The Cats Ass]

If Toronto waits a year:

 

Soto

Bregman

Alonso

Burnes

Fried

Buehler

Wheeler

Altuve

 

Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade.

 

It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.

 

Our issue should be hitting, not pitching. So that takes it down to Soto, Bregman, Alonso, Altuve. We'd still in theory have Vlad, Alonso would be an expensive DH, I think he'd be bad to invest in as well, he's Adam Dunn. Yankees aren't going to let Soto walk away. Altuve will be turning 35 that coming season. Bregman has similar concerns to Bellinger regarding Hardhit%, Barrel%, Exit Velocity.

[Jimcanuck]

kindly stop being dum

 

Vlad is a middling 1B. Almost irrelevant to the competitive "window" at this point. It would be foolish to construct any timelines or fabricate urgency around a man of his "talents."

 

We are firmly within the Davis Schneider window now.

 

A different viewpoint than yours, that's all. You haven't made a good post in months.

 

Anyway its more than Vlad and Bo. Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Springer, etc probably not very good 3 years from now. And the cupboard is pretty bare.

 

It's either go for it now or start the rebuild.

[Laika]

No it isn't

 

binary is for robots

[Jimcanuck]

I would like to point out that the Jays signed Gausman to what has turned out to be a fantastic contract. They got him for that price because other than the prior 2021 season, he had generally been a frustrating, inconsistent pitcher.

 

Bellinger right now is kind of in the same situation as Gausman was after 2021.

[L54]

I would like to point out that the Jays signed Gausman to what has turned out to be a fantastic contract. They got him for that price because other than the prior 2021 season, he had generally been a frustrating, inconsistent pitcher.

 

Bellinger right now is kind of in the same situation as Gausman was after 2021.

 

What would you pay Bellinger?

[max silver]

A different viewpoint than yours, that's all. You haven't made a good post in months.

 

Anyway its more than Vlad and Bo. Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Springer, etc probably not very good 3 years from now. And the cupboard is pretty bare.

 

It's either go for it now or start the rebuild.

 

I tend to agree with you here. The team is rapidly approaching a point where it's necessary to maximize the strength of the on the field roster for the next few seasons as there is a very good chance it will be necessary to tear things down and rebuild the team. It's entirely possible that neither of Vlad or Bo will be long term Blue Jays and as such I feel this is an important offseason to add the best talent available to maximize the team's chance of success in this short window. If the team needs to undertake a rebuild having guys like Chapman for an extra 3 or 4 years and Bellinger for 5 or 6 years after the window closes won't be a huge deal because the team won't likely be competitive for 3-4 years anyway and these deals will be closer to expiring by the time the team hits another competitive cycle.

 

There are not really perfect players available next offseason to add to the roster either so I don't feel the need to wait until next year. The big free agents that are available in the next offseason come with just as many question marks as the likes of Bellinger and Chapman do right now. Altuve has made a career of seasons like the one that Bellinger just produced where he's constantly running huge gulfs between his results and expected stats, Bregman has been steadily declining and is a Boras client so the contract ask is going to be obscene, Alonso is a 1B who is likely a 3ish win player but also a Boras client, Soto is so bad defensively he's supplied almost identical defensive value to Ohtani the last two seasons and will be an almost impossible sign etc. I think the club may actually be better served to add the potential impact talent that's available to them right now despite the question marks.