Around Baseball 2023

[Dick_Pole]

I'd take an entire team of Luis Arraez's.

 

Only if Montoyo is the manager.

[Brownie19]

Fair enough. I just thought that using WAR for an extreme outlier in defense and park factor was a poor example if you are trying to trash batting average as a useful metric.

 

Someone like the aforementioned Ichiro or Michael Young would make a better case in my opinion.

 

I used Bichette to counter to the thought "a player who can hit .300 is so good at getting hits that they can more or less suck farts at everything else on the field and still be good. See e.g. Luis Arraez". It was a great example IMO. Most of the other examples of players who hit .300 while still being lead average or below hitters are actually good at other aspects of baseball (Ichiro, Young, etc.). I guess David Eckstein is a good example. He actually wasn't very good at base running or defense. Ben Revere isn't a bad example. He slapped his way to several .300 seasons. The only thing he didn't suck farts at was base running and that alone allowed him to be an OK starter for a few seasons.

 

I'm going to move on though - 1 extra hit a week does typically make you a stud player.

[jaysblue]

You have to look at the player as a whole and the value they provide. I don't think neither me or Brownie are saying hitting .300 is a bad thing. It's definitely a plus. Players who just hit .300 but are below average in other areas like Eckstein exist. Same with guys who hit .220 with 30 HR's but offer nothing else like Chris Carter. Ideally, you don't want those bats in your lineup.

[Ehjays]

[Pendleton]

[Brownie19]

Apparently the Padres just extended Darvish. 6 years $108M

 

He's entering his age 36 season. This seems like a logical decision from a rational GM.

[Krylian]

6 years?!? Lol.

[jaysblue]

Apparently the Padres just extended Darvish. 6 years $108M

 

He's entering his age 36 season. This seems like a logical decision from a rational GM.

 

That's insane.

[wilko]

Apparently the Padres just extended Darvish. 6 years $108M

 

He's entering his age 36 season. This seems like a logical decision from a rational GM.

 

[BTS]

Apparently the Padres just extended Darvish. 6 years $108M

 

He's entering his age 36 season. This seems like a logical decision from a rational GM.

 

wat

[Pendleton]

Darvish, a Wasserman client, was already under contract for $18MM in 2023. That means the deal will tack on five years and $90MM worth of new money to his contract, which will carry through Darvish’s age-41 season

 

Why on earth

[Stangstag]

Apparently the Padres just extended Darvish. 6 years $108M

 

He's entering his age 36 season. This seems like a logical decision from a rational GM.

 

Jesus christ

[connorp]

I mean it’s 5/90 after this year. There’s some obviously luxury tax considerations going on

[Stangstag]

Padres are gonna be a mess in like… a handful of years. By 2026?

[connorp]

If they did 3/90 it would be somewhat close to the market for an Ace type pitcher, look at Max and JV, which are better of course but paid more

[BTS]

I want to see the analysis that led them to believe they had to do this now. Worst case he breaks this year and you don't want him back next year. Best case he has a 3-4 win season, and you probably still get him with a 5/90 offer going into his age-37 season.

[BTS]

If they did 3/90 it would be somewhat close to the market for an Ace type pitcher, look at Max and JV, which are better of course but paid more

 

It's hard to take you seriously because you start from the premise that every contract is good, and then find the defense of it. I don't think there's a single contract this offseason that you were willing to concede doesn't seem likely to work out well.

[connorp]

I want to see the analysis that led them to believe they had to do this now. Worst case he breaks this year and you don't want him back next year. Best case he has a 3-4 win season, and you probably still get him with a 5/90 offer going into his age-37 season.

 

If he repeats last season, no doubt he gets at least 3/90 from someone based on the market

[connorp]

It's hard to take you seriously because you start from the premise that every contract is good, and then find the defense of it. I don't think there's a single contract this offseason that you were willing to concede doesn't seem likely to work out well.

 

Well forget that and just focus on this one and apply the proper comps

[BTS]

If he repeats last season, no doubt he gets at least 3/90 from someone based on the market

 

That seems very unlikely though. He's 36 and that was the second best year of his career.

[connorp]

32yo Darvish and 37yo Darvish are going to get different contacts. Do you think Darvish is only going to get 1/30 on the open market next year if he repeats lol

[connorp]

That seems very unlikely though. He's 36 and that was the second best year of his career.

 

I happen to like Darvish, so there’s that idk. Maybe if you think he’s a crap shoot I’d agree

[connorp]

It's hard to take you seriously because you start from the premise that every contract is good, and then find the defense of it. I don't think there's a single contract this offseason that you were willing to concede doesn't seem likely to work out well.

 

I think it’s clear teams are structuring the contracts in such a way that they’re figuring higher AAV’s and adding years. So I think you have to look at deal like that and not at face value

[connorp]

It’s pretty basic. I mean they aren’t expecting him to be worth 2/36 at the back. They’re going for surplus on the 3/54 based on the market

[connorp]

If you think some team is signing Darvish next offseason (if he pitches like 2022) when there isn’t a lot of FA SP for 3/54, you’re smoking the funny stuff. I don’t know what to tell you

[BTS]

If you think some team is signing Darvish next offseason (if he pitches like 2022) when there isn’t a lot of FA SP for 3/54, you’re smoking the funny stuff. I don’t know what to tell you

 

Yeah, if he stays healthy and has a 4+ win season, the extension will be a bit less than he would have gotten on the market. But the odds of that are, what? 15%? Less? And they've prematurely risked a 90M sunk cost betting on that outcome.

[wilko]

If they did 3/90 it would be somewhat close to the market for an Ace type pitcher, look at Max and JV, which are better of course but paid more

 

But that's not the contract he signed. This makes no sense.

[connorp]

But that's not the contract he signed. This makes no sense.

 

As i said bro, teams are extending out the years for salary cap/luxury tax purposes. I think you can look at this contract and easily understand that

[connorp]

Yeah, if he stays healthy and has a 4+ win season, the extension will be a bit less than he would have gotten on the market. But the odds of that are, what? 15%? Less? And they've prematurely risked a 90M sunk cost betting on that outcome.

 

If Darvish breaks in say 2+ years, he probably retires and insurance covers it and the amount is spread out to lessen the luxury tax hit. Darvish’s control has gotten very good, less then 2.0 bb rate over the last 3 years. That’s really good to see as the stuff lessens.

[Laika]

"Beyond the sheer need for long-term help in the rotation, there’s surely an element of financial creativity at play here. Darvish’s preexisting six-year, $126MM contract came with a $21MM luxury hit (based on the contract’s AAV). Since this new deal is being tacked onto the end of that old contract, it effectively becomes an 11-year, $216MM deal. That comes with a reduced luxury hit of $19.64MM. It’s not a major savings, but the Padres were right up against the third tier of luxury penalization, so any newly created breathing room is quite welcome. Once crossing into that third luxury tier, a team is penalized not only in the form of steeper tax rates but also by having their top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 places."

 

mlbtr wrote that

 

can't really think of that as the primary motivation for this though. extending an old pitcher until he is 41 in order to save $2M in luxury tax space this season seems... funny