GDT: Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays (2/3)

[Brownie19]

Yeah it all depends on internal projections.

Kikuchi as a replacement level projection is worth negative 20M

Stroman is owed $50M so I guess even if you project him to be worth $30M over two years (3-4 WAR total), him and Kooch are a wash; equal value.

 

Actually looking at the salaries now I just can't see it happening.

 

I forgot Kikuchi was front loaded.

 

I guess you can still argue for it though if you:

 

- assume Kikuchi is dead and replacement level or worse

- think adding $15M AAV in payroll is worth going from Kikuchi to Stroman

 

But nah never happening haha.

 

I think if the Jays are spending an extra $15M they are targeting a one year free agent or maybe an RP + SP5 in free agency.

 

Remember that if Stro pitches well in 2023, he can opt-out. So he could only be a 1 year investment at $25M (actally $27M if he reaches 160 innings, which is likely). What's the going rate for $ per WAR? It used to be like $9M/WAR, but I think it's dropped a lot. I would expect Stro to post a 3 WAR season, so I could see him being 'worth' $25M next year and thus almost worth his contract. That's better than Kikuchi's value of -$20M.

[Stangstag]

I think if they could give Berrios away to wiggle out of the contract they would absolutely do it.

 

When you sign a 3-4 WAR pitcher and he is replacement level in year 1 of a seven year contract you start to s*** bricks.

 

I think if the FO is that short-sighted then the team is in deep s***. You have to go into 2023 thinking that Bo and Berrios will be close to their career norms. Have a backup plan sure, but you can’t really give up on a player year 1 of a 7 year contract

[G-Snarls]

I think if the FO is that short-sighted then the team is in deep s***. You have to go into 2023 thinking that Bo and Berrios will be close to their career norms. Have a backup plan sure, but you can’t really give up on a player year 1 of a 7 year contract

 

Unless you're the Marlins or the Rockies...

[Stangstag]

I just realized, if Berrios had not been extended then he would have been a free agent after the season. His contract probably would’ve looked more like 5/80 or something, maybe a 1 year QO deal.

[Laika]

I think if the FO is that short-sighted then the team is in deep s***. You have to go into 2023 thinking that Bo and Berrios will be close to their career norms. Have a backup plan sure, but you can’t really give up on a player year 1 of a 7 year contract

 

I don't think it has anything to do with short or long sightedness.

 

There have been many long term contracts in MLB history that the team would have been smart to wiggle out of after year 1 if given the chance.

[wilko]

I just realized, if Berrios had not been extended then he would have been a free agent after the season. His contract probably would’ve looked more like 5/80 or something, maybe a 1 year QO deal.

 

Plz fire up DeLorean.

[jaysblue]

I think if the FO is that short-sighted then the team is in deep s***. You have to go into 2023 thinking that Bo and Berrios will be close to their career norms. Have a backup plan sure, but you can’t really give up on a player year 1 of a 7 year contract

 

It makes sense targeting a No. 2/3 starter this offseason IMO even with Berrios around. Puts the Blue Jays in a better position especially if Berrios finds his form!

[Spanky99]

It makes sense targeting a No. 2/3 starter this offseason IMO even with Berrios around. Puts the Blue Jays in a better position especially if Berrios finds his form!

 

Through FA?

[Stangstag]

It makes sense targeting a No. 2/3 starter this offseason IMO even with Berrios around. Puts the Blue Jays in a better position especially if Berrios finds his form!

 

Sure. That is probably true for every offseason and every team though. The lineup doesn’t have many holes next year, maybe could upgrade at CF or 2B/SS but that’s it. Pitching will be the focus again

[Spanky99]

Priority #1 Edwin Diaz.

 

Priority #2 Michael Conforto

 

Priority #3 Extend Chicken Strip

[John_Havok]

Priority #1 Edwin Diaz.

 

Priority #2 Michael Conforto

 

Priority #3 Extend Chicken Strip

 

I would put dumping dead weight into priority #1, then move to your list. Dead weight being Tapia.

[Spanky99]

I would put dumping dead weight into priority #1, then move to your list. Dead weight being Tapia.

 

He'll be non-tendered... ??? Hence Conforto.

[glory]

Sure. That is probably true for every offseason and every team though. The lineup doesn’t have many holes next year, maybe could upgrade at CF or 2B/SS but that’s it. Pitching will be the focus again

 

I think CF should be a focus with Springer moving to a RF/DH hybrid role to take some potential wear and tear off of him. If the front office has one more big(ish) FA deal in them, then I think Nimmo would make the most sense for this team given their needs. That would allow them to trade at least one of Hernandez/Gurriel, and adds a much needed LH bat to the lineup. I think you can live with Espinal/Biggio/Merrifield at 2B for one more season and get positive value out of it. But ultimately yes, the team is going to need at least one SP, if not 2. Ryu being hurt and Kikuchi being s*** really hurts. I think ideally you have a rotation 1-5 without Kikuchi or White on it next season, and use the latter two more as depth pieces, though I expect Kikuchi to start the season in the rotation regardless.

[Spanky99]

How about we worry about that s*** in the offseason, IDK? lol

[G-Snarls]

Plz fire up DeLorean.

 

They're building those again BTW

[wilko]

They're building those again BTW

 

What the hell...

 

https://insideevs.com/news/567362/delorean-electric-sport-car-2022/

[jaysblue]

Through FA?

 

If Carlos Rodon opts out, would love the Jays to go hard after him but he'll get a huge payday.

 

Some other intriguing FA's I wouldn't mind: Sean Manaea, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney, Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, José Quintana, Matthew Boyd. One of those arms would slide nicely in the middle of the rotation.

[jaysblue]

Priority #1 Edwin Diaz.

 

Priority #2 Michael Conforto

 

Priority #3 Extend Chicken Strip

 

How about Brandon Nimmo? He's a FA after this season.

 

Definitely would love to see the Jays go after Edwin Diaz, and open to bringing back Chicken Strip for the No. 5 spot.

[John_Havok]

There's rumours Conforto might be ready to come back in late September. Might even be able to sneak him in for a few PA's before the playoffs (wouldnt be eligible for the playoffs of course) and get the inside track for next season.

[Spanky99]

If Carlos Rodon opts out, would love the Jays to go hard after him but he'll get a huge payday.

 

Some other intriguing FA's I wouldn't mind: Sean Manaea, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney, Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, José Quintana, Matthew Boyd. One of those arms would slide nicely in the middle of the rotation.

 

Yeah, I know there's lots. I doubt they go that route.

[Spanky99]

How about Brandon Nimmo? He's a FA after this season.

 

Definitely would love to see the Jays go after Edwin Diaz, and open to bringing back Chicken Strip for the No. 5 spot.

 

Good to elite OBP, I wouldn't complain.

[Spanky99]

There's rumours Conforto might be ready to come back in late September. Might even be able to sneak him in for a few PA's before the playoffs (wouldnt be eligible for the playoffs of course) and get the inside track for next season.

 

I'm on record for this. They'd sign him and put him on the 40 man prior to the first...

[Brownie19]

There's rumours Conforto might be ready to come back in late September. Might even be able to sneak him in for a few PA's before the playoffs (wouldnt be eligible for the playoffs of course) and get the inside track for next season.

 

He needs to work a needle into his rehab routine if he's coming to TO.

[Stangstag]

He needs to work a needle into his rehab routine if he's coming to TO.

 

Same with Nimmo