GDT: Jays @ O's Gm 2 of 3

[Laika]

My suggestion to the doomscrollers is to take a week away from the message board. Don't even watch the next few games.

 

It'll be okay.

 

If the Blue Jays are not bringing you joy, simply disengage. Marie Kondo.

[Olerud363]

Yep. 21 was the lost season. Squandered. I suppose if this team goes on a heater it could look different in a month but I see no trajectory upward. Unfortunately I expect we will lose the top wildcard but make it in. Then bow out quickly as the holes drag us down. For the FO talk of "waves" coming in from the farm we also have a wave of dead money and arb years on its way in, and after 23 there is a wave going out of Chappy, LGJ, Teo. The deadline was milquetoast. Limper than Moreno's bat. We need to make some changes for '23, address the f***ing pen and make a real run at this. Expect the BoSox to be back on their feet next year. The AL is never easy.

 

I don't get this 'we'll make playoffs but go nowhere'. The thing to be worried about is missing the playoffs, while a couple of teams with 1/2 the payroll (Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa Bay) get in and long term payroll and development problems become apparent which will hurt for years.

 

The top 2 starters, lineup and bullpen is as good as last year. If the problems the Jays have are fixable or partly bad luck they will have every chance (within the luck of the playoffs) of doing fine in the playoffs.

 

Another way of looking at it is over the next 50 games they have to beat out some of Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Seattle and Chicago. They essentially have to come in top half of those teams. If they do it's not a complete disaster, then they play one of those teams in a 3 game series with Gaussman/Manoah starting 2 of the games.

 

They's also played Houston well, and NY is a mess, so conditional on making the playoffs, they are probably in a good position (within luck of the playoffs) to do fine. If they things really go off the rails they don't make the playoffs.

[Olerud363]

For the FO talk of "waves" coming in from the farm we also have a wave of dead money and arb years on its way in, and after 23 there is a wave going out of Chappy, LGJ, Teo. The deadline was milquetoast. Limper than Moreno's bat.

 

 

One of the most depressing thing that has happened in the last 18 months is limp bat syndrome. Hit Martin, then Groshans, now Moreno. Orelvis has escaped it at the cost of becoming a .210 hitter with a 25 hit tool, which is probably just as bad.

 

There is a different world where we keep Stroman (instead of essentially exchanging him for Berrios), and the above 4 don't get hit by limp bat syndrome, then you have 'the waves' coming...

 

But 'the waves' aren't coming... depressing.

[Jonn]

Hopefully Berrios is good today but in reality we have absolutely no idea what we’re going to get out of him. And considering what he makes that’s not a very good feeling.

[Jimcanuck]

Hopefully Berrios is good today but in reality we have absolutely no idea what we’re going to get out of him. And considering what he makes that’s not a very good feeling.

 

Take a look at his history during the past 3 years or so. That will give you an idea what to expect.

[glory]

Yep. 21 was the lost season. Squandered. I suppose if this team goes on a heater it could look different in a month but I see no trajectory upward. Unfortunately I expect we will lose the top wildcard but make it in. Then bow out quickly as the holes drag us down. For the FO talk of "waves" coming in from the farm we also have a wave of dead money and arb years on its way in, and after 23 there is a wave going out of Chappy, LGJ, Teo. The deadline was milquetoast. Limper than Moreno's bat. We need to make some changes for '23, address the f***ing pen and make a real run at this. Expect the BoSox to be back on their feet next year. The AL is never easy.

 

I still think the Jays are the best non-Yankees/Astros team in the AL this season, so it would be disappointing if they didn't get the 1st WC, but as long as they get in then they will have a good shot with Manoah/Gausman in the first 2 games.

 

I tend to agree with you on 2023-onwards, though. The farm system doesn't have much in the upper minors outside of Moreno, and the cost of keeping this same group together is going to get much higher as early as next season and definitely 2024 when they have to either replace or re-sign Hernandez, Chapman, and Gurriel. This team was built around the premise of Vlad and Bichette both being superstars. If one or both fall short of that (and in Bo's case this season, way short) then it's going to impact the ceiling of this roster. They could easily perform better in 2023-25, so too early to get too pessimistic about it, but you definitely see some of the cracks in the foundation here. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with Jansen and the outfield situation next season.

[Stangstag]

Take a look at his history during the past 3 years or so. That will give you an idea what to expect.

 

Uhhhh

[Olerud363]

Take a look at his history during the past 3 years or so. That will give you an idea what to expect.

 

Aren't the advanced stats on his pitches all way down this year? I think that, in combination with something about his arm angle indicates he may have an injury, or at least something has changed.

 

Why would we expect his old results when the movement on his pitches has changed? Unless you think that is just a random thing and will come back.

 

Note: I'm just repeating what I've heard others on the board, who look into things more deeply then me, say about his advanced pitch metrics... if I'm wrong on that let me know.

[Olerud363]

I still think the Jays are the best non-Yankees/Astros team in the AL this season, so it would be disappointing if they didn't get the 1st WC, but as long as they get in then they will have a good shot with Manoah/Gausman in the first 2 games.

 

I tend to agree with you on 2023-onwards, though. The farm system doesn't have much in the upper minors outside of Moreno, and the cost of keeping this same group together is going to get much higher as early as next season and definitely 2024 when they have to either replace or re-sign Hernandez, Chapman, and Gurriel. This team was built around the premise of Vlad and Bichette both being superstars. If one or both fall short of that (and in Bo's case this season, way short) then it's going to impact the ceiling of this roster. They could easily perform better in 2023-25, so too early to get too pessimistic about it, but you definitely see some of the cracks in the foundation here. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with Jansen and the outfield situation next season.

 

 

In 2023 three of the four highest paid players, Springer, Berrios, Ryu could be dead weight, one of them has a 100% certainty of being dead weight. A good 2023-25 depends on Springer being healthy and productive and Berrios bouncing back.

[Jimcanuck]

Aren't the advanced stats on his pitches all way down this year? I think that, in combination with something about his arm angle indicates he may have an injury, or at least something has changed.

 

Why would we expect his old results when the movement on his pitches has changed? Unless you think that is just a random thing and will come back.

 

Note: I'm just repeating what I've heard others on the board, who look into things more deeply then me, say about his advanced pitch metrics... if I'm wrong on that let me know.

 

Sure if there has been a permanent change of some sort. Until we know one way or another, the expectation should be that Berrios will get back to his historical numbers.

[Brownie19]

Aren't the advanced stats on his pitches all way down this year? I think that, in combination with something about his arm angle indicates he may have an injury, or at least something has changed.

 

Why would we expect his old results when the movement on his pitches has changed? Unless you think that is just a random thing and will come back.

 

Note: I'm just repeating what I've heard others on the board, who look into things more deeply then me, say about his advanced pitch metrics... if I'm wrong on that let me know.

 

Since May 18th he's had an xFIP of 3.58 a K/9 of 9.23 and a BB/9 of 1.87. That's all significantly better than his career numbers and in line with his 2021 performance. Suggesting you have no idea what he's going to give you in any given start or that he could be dead weight next year is silly. Then again - after a couple of loses, this board is littered with this s***.

[Jonn]

Take a look at his history during the past 3 years or so. That will give you an idea what to expect.

 

Track record doesn’t apply when all his career numbers and advanced stats are at a career worse across the board. Even with his 2 monster strikeout games. All his swing and miss numbers are down as well. He has been the very picture of inconsistency this season despite being very consistent for most of his career.

[Stangstag]

Since May 18th he's had an xFIP of 3.58 a K/9 of 9.23 and a BB/9 of 1.87. That's all significantly better than his career numbers and in line with his 2021 performance. Suggesting you have no idea what he's going to give you in any given start or that he could be dead weight next year is silly. Then again - after a couple of loses, this board is littered with this s***.

 

Hmmm. Wouldn’t have guessed that to be the case. Encouraging to see

[Jonn]

Hmmm. Wouldn’t have guessed that to be the case. Encouraging to see

 

He was pitching better especially in July. But he’s been awful in August so far.

[G-Snarls]

Wish it was an early game today...

[Brownie19]

He was pitching better especially in July. But he’s been awful in August so far.

 

You mean in the 1 f***ing start he's made in August Jonn? You're so salty lately. Rule #6 – Do not sit in the corner and sulk. It draws attention in a negative way.

[Jonn]

You mean in the 1 f***ing start he's made in August Jonn? You're so salty lately. Rule #6 – Do not sit in the corner and sulk. It draws attention in a negative way.

 

Why are you so angry? Chill out bro lol. He’s been absolute dog s*** the vast majority of the season. Gives up majestic homeruns

[Brownie19]

Why are you so angry? Chill out bro lol. He’s been absolute dog s*** the vast majority of the season. Gives up majestic homeruns

 

I already posted stats suggesting this isn't true. You choose to ignore them to suit your salty, negative view of this team. Does it make you feel better to tell random strangers just how s***** you think the Jays are? I hope it does. I'm not angry at all - I'm just pointing out how stupid your comment is on his performance in August.

[Jonn]

I already posted stats suggesting this isn't true. You choose to ignore them to suit your salty, negative view of this team. Does it make you feel better to tell random strangers just how s***** you think the Jays are? I hope it does. I'm not angry at all - I'm just pointing out how stupid your comment is on his performance in August.

 

I didn’t choose to ignore them. I just look at the full body of work. He has been extremely inconsistent all season. Every time you think he’s turning the corner he gets his s*** kicked in

[DigitalRock]

Despite this team being in a playoff spot, it really hasnt been that fun cheering for this team this year. Its so weird.

 

Yeah frustrating team this year.

[Jimcanuck]

I didn’t choose to ignore them. I just look at the full body of work. He has been extremely inconsistent all season. Every time you think he’s turning the corner he gets his s*** kicked in

 

The issue here is, Berrios hasn't met your expectations, that's all. Objectively he isn't far off his career norms this year. K rate is down, HR/9 is up, and BABIP is up.

 

A little tweak in his delivery or pitch mix and he could be right back to the Berrios of 2021.

[Jonn]

The issue here is, Berrios hasn't met your expectations, that's all. Objectively he isn't far off his career norms this year. K rate is down, HR/9 is up, and BABIP is up.

 

A little tweak in his delivery or pitch mix and he could be right back to the Berrios of 2021.

 

Considering the results he’s had this season I don’t think hes lived up to anyones expectations. He’s being paid to be one of the best Starters in the American League. He’s arguably been one of the worst.

 

I’m not saying to give up on him. This could just be a blip on the radar. But nobody can honestly say they feel confident with him on the mound right now.

[Jimcanuck]

Considering the results he’s had this season I don’t think hes lived up to anyones expectations. He’s being paid to be one of the best Starters in the American League. He’s arguably been one of the worst.

 

I’m not saying to give up on him. This could just be a blip on the radar. But nobody can honestly say they feel confident with him on the mound right now.

 

Your evaluation is completely wrong. What stats are you looking at?

[JFD]

This could just be a blip on the radar. But nobody can honestly say they feel confident with him on the mound right now.

 

Certainly not on the road. I don't know what it is with him getting caved in on the road and looking like a stud at home. Is he facing better lineups on the road with the vaccine restrictions at home or is the issue completely between the ears?

 

His good July stretch was 90% home games.

[Brownie19]

I didn’t choose to ignore them. I just look at the full body of work. He has been extremely inconsistent all season. Every time you think he’s turning the corner he gets his s*** kicked in

 

Says the guy who claims that Berrios has been awful in August (after making just 1 start).

[Jonn]

Your evaluation is completely wrong. What stats are you looking at?

 

All of them not the window he pitched well and throwing out all the garbage in between. The dude’s literally rocking an ERA over 7 on the road this season.

[Jimcanuck]

All of them not the window he pitched well and throwing out all the garbage in between. The dude’s literally rocking an ERA over 7 on the road this season.

 

ERA, lmao

[MikeM3]

Berrios sucks this year. No way around it. His fastball has one of the worst run values in all of baseball. It gets f***ing nuked by lefties, .500 woba lol.

[Jonn]

ERA, lmao

 

Yes dude ERA. When you’re giving up a metric f*** ton of runs it matters in winning and losing Baseball games. The dude has allowed an American League leading 24 homeruns. 130 hits. His overall numbers and advanced stats down across the board. I don’t know why you’re sitting here defending him. Even he would tell you he hasn’t been good enough. You can’t just cut out of bunch of his starts and say outside of this time frame or these moments he’s been good lol. This conversation started with me saying hes been the definition of inconsistent. Which is exactly what he’s been. One of the dumbest arguments I have ever had on this message board and that’s saying a lot.

 

Getting paid what he is and how he’s performed this season is flat out unacceptable. Plain and simple.

[Jimcanuck]

Yes dude ERA. When you’re giving up a metric f*** ton of runs it matters in winning and losing Baseball games. The dude has allowed an American League leading 24 homeruns. 130 hits. His overall numbers and advanced stats down across the board. I don’t know why you’re sitting here defending him. Even he would tell you he hasn’t been good enough. You can’t just cut out of bunch of his starts and say outside of this time frame or these moments he’s been good lol. This conversation started with me saying hes been the definition of inconsistent. Which is exactly what he’s been. One of the dumbest arguments I have ever had on this message board and that’s saying a lot.

 

Getting paid what he is and how he’s performed this season is flat out unacceptable. Plain and simple.

 

I've never said he beens good, but that there is no reason to suggest he won't revert to his historical performance. Do you disagree with this?