Which pitcher is better?

[Terminator]

Based on their age and High-A Stats?

 

Other Notes:

Player A made almost 2 innings per appearance. Player B is just over 3.

 

Player A is now starting games and Player B is seen in the industry to carry both reliever and injury risk.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Terminator

[RobinThicc]

Tiedemann

[Deadpool]

The starter has more value, but those stats tell you pretty much nothing because "high A"

[Jonn]

Nick Frasso is the best pitcher to ever grace A-Ball infact each League should retire his number and honour him forever.

[John_Havok]

we're trying to judge based on 20 inning and 10 inning sample sizes?

[Terminator]

The starter has more value, but those stats tell you pretty much nothing because "high A"

 

I should have added the amount of games. Player A is making 2 innings per appearance. Player B is just over 3.

 

I also could have noted that Player A is now starting games after that performance in High A and that Player B is seen in the industry to carry both reliever and injury risk.

[Terminator]

we're trying to judge based on 20 inning and 10 inning sample sizes?

 

You're on to something here!

[Jimcanuck]

Add the poll option - Indeterminate

[BTS]

Based on the information provided, A is clearly superior.

[Terminator]

Player A is Haden Juenger in 2021. B is obviously Future Cy Young winner Nick Frasso.

 

The point isn't to say that Juenger is the better prospect or anything like that. He's had a decent but not great 2022 and is now in AAA as a 21 year old which in itself is probably as impressive as anything Frasso has done to date.

 

But rather the point is that a similar performance from a player pitching at the same level while 3 years younger netted minimal interest on this board and also registered just a blip on the prospect sites.

 

But for some reason Nick Frasso does it this year and he's a god here. The prospect sites are giving him just slightly more attention than they gave Juenger which sounds about right to me, probably because like Deadpool mentioned he's actually starting games even if it's only 3+ innings right now.

 

I don't even hate Nick Frasso, just pointing out that he's a risky 40+ prospect who was traded for a serviceable backend SP and people are really mad over it.

[Laika]

age vs. level is extremely important

[Terminator]

Based on the information provided, A is clearly superior.

 

Right! I only provided the info as is to compare 2021 Juenger (who barely made a squeak on this board) to 2022 Frasso (who is Alex Manoah 2.0).

[John_Havok]

Right! I only provided this info as is to compare 2021 Juenger (who barely made a squeak on this board) to 2022 Frasso (who is Alex Manoah 2.0).

 

Not to derail this wonderful trolling thread, but how is Frasso remotely comparable to Manoah?

[Terminator]

Not to derail this wonderful trolling thread, but how is Frasso remotely comparable to Manoah?

 

It's a bit of hyperbole but I've seen posters say that Atkins should get fired for this trade if they don't go on a run and others have said that Frasso is going to be a "f***ing superstar."

 

A lot of people don't even know who Juenger is or that he had such a good 2021.

[Laika]

It's interesting to see our biases as a collective of fans be discovered in real time

 

Like we all loved Frasso and still liked Groshans

 

And then he is traded and it's like a Scooby Doo moment. The bed sheet comes off. We finally see them without makeup. Huh.

[Jimcanuck]

If Shatkins had done their fanbase homework, would have traded Juenger instead.

[John_Havok]

It's interesting to see our biases as a collective of fans be discovered in real time

 

Like we all loved Frasso and still liked Groshans

 

And then he is traded and it's like a Scooby Doo moment. The bed sheet comes off. We finally see them without makeup. Huh.

 

I think it's like a breakup with someone who you thought you really liked, but they broke up with you and you just spend the next week or so really focusing on what you didnt like about them to make yourself feel better.

[Dagagad]

It's interesting to see our biases as a collective of fans be discovered in real time

 

Like we all loved Frasso and still liked Groshans

 

And then he is traded and it's like a Scooby Doo moment. The bed sheet comes off. We finally see them without makeup. Huh.

 

It’s also somewhere in the middle. Some people want to never say anything bad about our prospects until they leave.

 

I still like Frasso. Great stuff and I’m not as concerned with age to level with pitchers. He’s also an A ball pitcher so he’s a lotto ticket. All those things can be true.

[John_Havok]

It’s also somewhere in the middle. Some people want to never say anything bad about our prospects until they leave.

 

I still like Frasso. Great stuff and I’m not as concerned with age to level with pitchers. He’s also an A ball pitcher so he’s a lotto ticket. All those things can be true.

 

I definitely think age level is very important, but less so for pitchers than hitters. Not dramatically less important, but I'm not going to hold it as much against a pitcher who is 23 pitching against 22 year olds, than I am a hitter who's 23 mashing against 22 year olds. I just think theres so much more to a pitcher's development with innings limits and all the other ******** that they just take a bit longer to ripen and it's not the end of the world if they're not 2 or 3 years younger than the average hitter in their league.

[Laika]

I definitely think age level is very important, but less so for pitchers than hitters. Not dramatically less important, but I'm not going to hold it as much against a pitcher who is 23 pitching against 22 year olds, than I am a hitter who's 23 mashing against 22 year olds. I just think theres so much more to a pitcher's development with innings limits and all the other ******** that they just take a bit longer to ripen and it's not the end of the world if they're not 2 or 3 years younger than the average hitter in their league.

 

This is something easily testable

 

Probably available in public research

 

age vs level important for hitters vs pitchers

[Terminator]

It's interesting to see our biases as a collective of fans be discovered in real time

 

Like we all loved Frasso and still liked Groshans

 

And then he is traded and it's like a Scooby Doo moment. The bed sheet comes off. We finally see them without makeup. Huh.

 

Yeah it is interesting. Fans are basically stat scouting and throwing in some age vs. level analysis and very light scouting based on velocity, height/weight and what prospect sites tell us. Prospect sites use the stats, plus actual scouting and whatever insider knowledge they can get their hands on.

 

Actual orgs are doing everything the prospect sites are x 100. But even further than that, when they trade the player they are also revealing the market value of the players involved in the transaction. We think we know the market value but we really don't until we see a player getting traded or signing a contract.

 

Doesn't mean the teams are always making the right moves, but it does reveal what the players are worth in the marketplace.

[Laika]

Yeah it is really interesting. Fans are basically stat scouting and throwing in some age vs. level analysis and at best very light scouting based on velocity and height/weight plus what prospect sites tell us. Prospect sites use the stats, plus actual scouting and whatever insider knowledge they can get their hands on.

 

Actual orgs are doing everything the prospect sites are x 100. But even further than that, when they trade the player they are also showing us the market value of the players involved in the transaction. Especially when it's two competent orgs making the trade. Doesn't mean they always are making the right moves, but it does reveal what the players are basically worth in the marketplace.

 

Yeah unless you get an organization competency mismatch or something other tilting factor.

 

I do love it when Toronto trades with competent orgs.

[Terminator]

Yeah unless you get an organization competency mismatch or something other tilting factor.

 

I do love it when Toronto trades with competent orgs.

 

Yeah same here. I love trading with the Dodgers tbh. They are one of the best orgs but because they are constantly churning out big league talent, they've got to move a lot of it so sometimes you can get a deal on a more established player for a riskier asset.

[Terminator]

I definitely think age level is very important, but less so for pitchers than hitters. Not dramatically less important, but I'm not going to hold it as much against a pitcher who is 23 pitching against 22 year olds, than I am a hitter who's 23 mashing against 22 year olds. I just think theres so much more to a pitcher's development with innings limits and all the other ******** that they just take a bit longer to ripen and it's not the end of the world if they're not 2 or 3 years younger than the average hitter in their league.

 

That's an interesting theory. It does seems like there might be some consensus to that but would be interested if it's true or not.

 

Nick Frasso being 23 in A-Ball seems to either be overlooked completely by some, or at least accepted by others. I'm hating on him more than anyone but even I admit that he's a real prospect. Whereas a guy who hits well in A+ at age 23, not a perfect example but say someone like Ryan Noda, is discounted as a fringe prospect at best.

[Dagagad]

That's an interesting theory. It does seems like there might be some consensus to that but would be interested if it's true or not.

 

Nick Frasso being 23 in A-Ball seems to either be overlooked completely by some, or at least accepted by others. I'm hating on him more than anyone but even I admit that he's a real prospect. Whereas a guy who hits well in A+ at age 23, not a perfect example but say someone like Ryan Noda, is discounted as a fringe prospect at best.

 

I think that’s because there is much more measurable ways to figure out how good someone’s stuff is.

[John_Havok]

It’s also somewhere in the middle. Some people want to never say anything bad about our prospects until they leave.

 

I still like Frasso. Great stuff and I’m not as concerned with age to level with pitchers. He’s also an A ball pitcher so he’s a lotto ticket. All those things can be true.

 

That's not to say that Frasso dominating high A hitters at 23 isn't nothing, but as a guy whos had an incredibly short track record in pro ball overall, I'm less inclined to discount it fully but at the same time, it's exactly what I would expect him to do so... also don't really go overboard in giving him a ton of credit either. Like, if I see another SP whos already pitched 3 full years in the minors or something and is just now starting to dominate at High A, I would likely give that guy less credit than Frasso, who's already doing it with not even 50 innings under his belt.

 

But, like you and Laika said, orgs have access to infinitely more information and data than we do, so.... any thing we come up with as fans is just stat scouting at it's finest and trying to compare 1 guys stats with another guys, and figuring that whoever is younger at the same level must therefore be the better talent.

 

There's nothing truly linear about it, just general trends that younger than league average and performing = better than being older than league average and performing. Then there's all the nuance, background, development behind the scenes that we know nothing about.

[Spanky__99]

lol @ the sample size... the answer is clearly obvious in player A in that sample, but Frasso's stock is certainly trending in the right direction, his challenge will be in AA. Let it go, brosoff. Hahaha!!!