GDT: Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 2/4

[Jimcanuck]

How can you not sell everything for a 3 game wild card?

 

This is the window. Clock is ticking.

 

Disagree.

 

Baseball is funny.

 

Next year might well be like 2021, only better.

 

Pick your spots to go all in. This year isn't it.

[Dagagad]

Disagree.

 

Baseball is funny.

 

Next year might well be like 2021, only better.

 

Pick your spots to go all in. This year isn't it.

 

There are time constraints though. Springer and gausman are realistically on the decline phases of their careers. Vlad and Bo are only getting more expensive and they are out of control in 2026.

 

Realistically, it’s 4/5 year window counting last year. If we don’t get in this year, that’s 40% at best of our window wasted and the team is more expensive again next year so less resources to make it better.

 

I don’t think it’s reasonable to not go all in if that’s what the playoff odds say at the deadline.

[Spanky99]

Or you know... ROGERS.

 

These bastards f***ed up my gateway contact?

 

I continue to get this error... Grrr

 

can't connect through firewall to https websites

 

*stumped man* Could it be, the Rogers server is so congested at the moment?

[Jimcanuck]

There are time constraints though. Springer and gausman are realistically on the decline phases of their careers. Vlad and Bo are only getting more expensive and they are out of control in 2026.

 

Realistically, it’s 4/5 year window counting last year. If we don’t get in this year, that’s 40% at best of our window wasted and the team is more expensive again next year so less resources to make it better.

 

I don’t think it’s reasonable to not go all in if that’s what the playoff odds say at the deadline.

 

So let's say you cash prospects at the deadline in an effort to make the playoffs. And you end up missing the playoffs. Where does that leave you; a barren farm, a year older Springer, a year closer to Vlad and Bo free agency, etc.

 

As I said, this does not look like the year to move prospects to fill holes. If the Jays unexpectedly win 3/4 of their games between now and the AS break, the calculus might be different.

[BigCecil]

There are time constraints though. Springer and gausman are realistically on the decline phases of their careers. Vlad and Bo are only getting more expensive and they are out of control in 2026.

 

Realistically, it’s 4/5 year window counting last year. If we don’t get in this year, that’s 40% at best of our window wasted and the team is more expensive again next year so less resources to make it better.

 

I don’t think it’s reasonable to not go all in if that’s what the playoff odds say at the deadline.

 

I get it for sure but I tend to agree with Jim. Lets see what is around at the deadline to pick up, and at what cost its available. If the under performance of so many starts to correct statistically, it may look a lot different over the next 20 gms. What concerns me is maybe this isn't underperformance by the likes of Vlad/Bo etc. etc. Maybe this is what it is and '21 were anomalies. Who knows? Bo in the 2 spot is making me crazy.

[Olerud363]

I'm not interested in selling everything for a 3 gm away series wildcard. Expectations were much higher.

 

They shouldn't buy. They should build a team that can win 81 for the next 10 years and luck will hit some year.

 

The silver lining is that the current version of Bo and Vlad as 3 WAR players are more easily replaceable with Santiago Espinal or Ty France types... hell Howritz could be the next Ty France (admittedly France had huge power in 2019).

 

How is there even a 'window' anymore? The Window was based on Vlad and Bo being 12 WAR combined and having to win with them...

 

Top players this year are Manaoah, Gaussman, Kirk and Espinal. 1 year ago no one would have thought that. Need to just continually add talent and maybe make some tough trades eventually. If Bo or Vlad have to be traded, whos to say you can't get some near ready replacements? Enough with the Window. Just keep making an team projected to win more than they lose. Maybe the 'window' is even putting too much pressure on the players and driving fans crazy.

[Spanky99]

So let's say you cash prospects at the deadline in an effort to make the playoffs. And you end up missing the playoffs. Where does that leave you; a barren farm, a year older Springer, a year closer to Vlad and Bo free agency, etc.

 

As I said, this does not look like the year to move prospects to fill holes. If the Jays unexpectedly win 3/4 of their games between now and the AS break, the calculus might be different.

 

Agreed, plus I bet the Jays could get Robertson/Ortega fairly cheap and Quintana too.

[Dagagad]

So let's say you cash prospects at the deadline in an effort to make the playoffs. And you end up missing the playoffs. Where does that leave you; a barren farm, a year older Springer, a year closer to Vlad and Bo free agency, etc.

 

As I said, this does not look like the year to move prospects to fill holes. If the Jays unexpectedly win 3/4 of their games between now and the AS break, the calculus might be different.

 

What if you don’t and then next year is the year you get really bad injury luck and then that’s 60% of the window gone?

 

I don’t see this as a choice. The window is the window and when you are in it, if you have a realistic shot of getting in it, you trade to get the pieces you need.

 

I don’t understand kicking the can down the road when you are running out of road.

 

I mean, maybe if we are out of it at the deadline somehow, you sell guys instead to extend the window? That’s the only other scenario i see other than buying. How much we buy just depends on our odds.

[Olerud363]

There are time constraints though. Springer and gausman are realistically on the decline phases of their careers. Vlad and Bo are only getting more expensive and they are out of control in 2026.

 

Realistically, itÂ’s 4/5 year window counting last year. If we donÂ’t get in this year, thatÂ’s 40% at best of our window wasted and the team is more expensive again next year so less resources to make it better.

 

I donÂ’t think itÂ’s reasonable to not go all in if thatÂ’s what the playoff odds say at the deadline.

 

Ryu is coming off the books in 2024 so replacing his payroll space could compensate for Guassman's decline.

 

Gaussman's decline probably won't be linear. He could go on like this to 35 or he could go the way of Ryu.

 

We are really worried about losing a 3 WAR short stop and a 3 WAR first basemen in 3 years? Easily replaceable players. If they return to 2021 level the next couple of years, that is great for the 2023 and 24 teams.

 

Moreno and Kirk could be the key players if used properly. Maybe the key is developing Moreno so that he can play 2nd or 3rd sometimes, and build around Kirk and Moreno each catching half the time.

 

Maybe Martinez will decrease his launch angle. Maybe Howritz is a 3 WAR first basemen and you can win with those... maybe Espinal is the short stop. I don't know. Just sick of the window. We can trade prospects and watch those prospects help a team beat us in late 2023.

 

Like Syndergard was actually the guy who was going to be ready for the stretch run of the next contending Blue Jays team... but we didn't know it.

[Dagagad]

Ryu is coming off the books in 2024 so replacing his payroll space could compensate for Guassman's decline.

 

Gaussman's decline probably won't be linear. He could go on like this to 35 or he could go the way of Ryu.

 

We are really worried about losing a 3 WAR short stop and a 3 WAR first basemen in 3 years? Easily replaceable players. If they return to 2021 level the next couple of years, that is great for the 2023 and 24 teams.

 

Moreno and Kirk could be the key players if used properly. Maybe the key is developing Moreno so that he can play 2nd or 3rd sometimes, and build around Kirk and Moreno each catching half the time.

 

Maybe Martinez will decrease his launch angle. Maybe Howritz is a 3 WAR first basemen and you can win with those... maybe Espinal is the short stop. I don't know. Just sick of the window. We can trade prospects and watch those prospects help a team beat us in late 2023.

 

Like Syndergard was actually the guy who was going to be ready for the stretch run of the next contending Blue Jays team... but we didn't know it.

 

I mean windows are how it works for almost everyone. The only way you don’t have a window is if you are elite at producing your own pitching and even that probably runs out at some point. You have to trade every year as a contender to fill holes. It’s attritional.

 

I’ll be honest, if vlad and Bo are ceiling 3 war players, then we are toast anyway. At least for a while.

[John_Havok]

I get it for sure but I tend to agree with Jim. Lets see what is around at the deadline to pick up, and at what cost its available. If the under performance of so many starts to correct statistically, it may look a lot different over the next 20 gms. What concerns me is maybe this isn't underperformance by the likes of Vlad/Bo etc. etc. Maybe this is what it is and '21 were anomalies. Who knows? Bo in the 2 spot is making me crazy.

 

Bo in the 2 spot just has to stop. It’s not working. He’s not getting on base enough and not hitting the ball well enough. He’s just not the right kind of guy to be hitting that high right now.

 

Springer, Vlad, Kirk, Teo, Gurriel, Bo, Biggio, Chapman, Espinal.

[BigCecil]

I mean windows are how it works for almost everyone. The only way you don’t have a window is if you are elite at producing your own pitching and even that probably runs out at some point. You have to trade every year as a contender to fill holes. It’s attritional.

 

I’ll be honest, if vlad and Bo are ceiling 3 war players, then we are toast anyway. At least for a while.

 

After '21 some people were flippantly throwing out $300M and $400M long term deals numbers for Vlad and Bo. With the way they have looked the first half of '22 thats out the window for now IMO.

 

Vlad has been well above average but not elite and Bo has been average on offense and below on D.

[Jimcanuck]

After '21 some people were flippantly throwing out $300M and $400M long term deals numbers for Vlad and Bo. With the way they have looked the first half of '22 thats out the window for now IMO.

 

Vlad has been well above average but not elite and Bo has been average on offense and below on D.

 

Now or this offseason is the time to sign them long term, IMO

[Dagagad]

After '21 some people were flippantly throwing out $300M and $400M long term deals numbers for Vlad and Bo. With the way they have looked the first half of '22 thats out the window for now IMO.

 

Vlad has been well above average but not elite and Bo has been average on offense and below on D.

 

I still believe in both of them, I’ll be honest. They haven’t been bad but if we had even reasonable pitching depth or an average bullpen, we wouldn’t even be talking about it that much. We’d just expect them to round into form.

[Dagagad]

Now or this offseason is the time to sign them long term, IMO

 

Vlad sure. I’m not signing the white javier Baez until he shows approach improvement.

[Olerud363]

I mean windows are how it works for almost everyone. The only way you donÂ’t have a window is if you are elite at producing your own pitching and even that probably runs out at some point. You have to trade every year as a contender to fill holes. ItÂ’s attritional.

 

IÂ’ll be honest, if vlad and Bo are ceiling 3 war players, then we are toast anyway. At least for a while.

 

They obviously aren't 3 WAR 'ceiling players', and probably are not 3 WAR average players. Could be they are 4 WAR average.

 

Teams without Windows or very short windows - Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox,

 

Not sure if there is anybody else...

 

Jays have a lot of resources and maybe they need to forget about the Windows. I'd like to see them run like Boston, which I think is a comparable market. Try to put up a competitive team every year, keep the losing cycles very short, don't be afraid to trade Nomar, Manny, or Mookie Betts. Don't be afraid to lose Devers.

[Olerud363]

I still believe in both of them, I’ll be honest. They haven’t been bad but if we had even reasonable pitching depth or an average bullpen, we wouldn’t even be talking about it that much. We’d just expect them to round into form.

 

I think that's my point. The team can win without 11 WAR from short stop and first base. What if they put 35 million into facilities, coaches, various shot in the dark contracts and develop the pitching depth you have been advocating for?

 

What if they trade Bo and Vlad in a year but put mega resources into scouting the trade, can they get Ty France / J.P. Crawford levels players back? Build a great organization and forget about the windows.

[Dagagad]

They obviously aren't 3 WAR 'ceiling players', and probably are not 3 WAR average players. Could be they are 4 WAR average.

 

Teams without Windows or very short windows - Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox,

 

Not sure if there is anybody else...

 

Jays have a lot of resources and maybe they need to forget about the Windows. I'd like to see them run like Boston, which I think is a comparable market. Try to put up a competitive team every year, keep the losing cycles very short, don't be afraid to trade Nomar, Manny, or Mookie Betts. Don't be afraid to lose Devers.

 

I think over the last 5 years (not incl 2020) the only teams to win 90 games every year were the dodgers, Yankees and Astros. I see what you mean with the Red Sox but honestly I think their goal is to be like the astros. A smaller budget than they historically had but good every year. I think the rays just don’t have enough money to be good every year but if you doubled their budget they would be. I see Milwaukee as having this potential longer term as well. They kind of are rays like with a bigger budget.

 

The Red Sox would be an interesting model. They are really the only team I can think of who is often good but doesn’t really do pitching well.

[BigCecil]

Vlad sure. I’m not signing the white javier Baez until he shows approach improvement.

 

Not so sure. Depends on term/aav. Think Prince Fielder. Sandoval etc. Agree on Bo 100%.

[DigitalRock]

100%. I wrote you an eeyore PM vent the day after the season ended last year as i was so frustrated about all the "next year" "building block" season. All the talk about having to play not at home when net net they also benefitted from those minor league parks with the long ball. ya da ya da. Development and improvement is not linear. Look at SFG this year. You have to take advantage of things lining up. I don't yet buy this FO is building a perennial contender. Too many big decisions coming on more big contracts, deal misses and not enough pitching development.

 

I thought we had such cheap, unicorn seasons from so many in 2021 we squandered it all. That team in '21 with a LH thumper and some pen filth would have been tough to play against. So far its playing out in my worst case scenario concerns as another core year is burning.

 

I remain hopeful I'm wrong and it turns around. I'm not interested in selling everything for a 3 gm away series wildcard. Expectations were much higher. I'm in TOR in July a couple times for meetings and Im not going to any more games unless they start playing better. Just a waste of time/money. I went to the 4 gms to split with BAL 2-2. Wasn't pretty. They are still in it to be sure but they are what their record is so far.

Well put, sums it up well.

[glory]

100%. I wrote you an eeyore PM vent the day after the season ended last year as i was so frustrated about all the "next year" "building block" season. All the talk about having to play not at home when net net they also benefitted from those minor league parks with the long ball. ya da ya da. Development and improvement is not linear. Look at SFG this year. You have to take advantage of things lining up. I don't yet buy this FO is building a perennial contender. Too many big decisions coming on more big contracts, deal misses and not enough pitching development.

 

I thought we had such cheap, unicorn seasons from so many in 2021 we squandered it all. That team in '21 with a LH thumper and some pen filth would have been tough to play against. So far its playing out in my worst case scenario concerns as another core year is burning.

 

I remain hopeful I'm wrong and it turns around. I'm not interested in selling everything for a 3 gm away series wildcard. Expectations were much higher. I'm in TOR in July a couple times for meetings and Im not going to any more games unless they start playing better. Just a waste of time/money. I went to the 4 gms to split with BAL 2-2. Wasn't pretty. They are still in it to be sure but they are what their record is so far.

 

Yeah I think we underrate the level of risk involved in the Springer/Gausman/Berrios contracts. There’s real decline potential there in the latter parts of those deals, and if the team is not developing the next Vlad/Kirk/Bo/etc by 2025 then it’s going to be tough to create the sustainable winner they always talk about once Vlad/Bo are either extended or leave. That’s not even factoring the lack of pitching development (aside from Manoah) that hasn’t gotten better over time.

 

With that said, I agree with not going to all in this deadline. They are not catching the Yankees, and really only have 1, maybe 2, threats to their WC spot (Mariners and maybe CLE since they play in a s*** division). Do enough to get a WC spot and then hope Manoah/Gausman/Berrios can get you to the DS. After that it’s a crapshoot.

[Dagagad]

I think that's my point. The team can win without 11 WAR from short stop and first base. What if they put 35 million into facilities, coaches, various shot in the dark contracts and develop the pitching depth you have been advocating for?

 

What if they trade Bo and Vlad in a year but put mega resources into scouting the trade, can they get Ty France / J.P. Crawford levels players back? Build a great organization and forget about the windows.

 

If it was as simple as that, wouldn’t teams just go to Tampa and give everyone involved with pitching analysis, scouting and development 10 times what they are making now.

 

I know that the dodgers and Red Sox hired from the rays but they are obviously still really good at it.

[gruber92]

What if you don’t and then next year is the year you get really bad injury luck and then that’s 60% of the window gone?

 

I don’t see this as a choice. The window is the window and when you are in it, if you have a realistic shot of getting in it, you trade to get the pieces you need.

 

I don’t understand kicking the can down the road when you are running out of road.

 

I mean, maybe if we are out of it at the deadline somehow, you sell guys instead to extend the window? That’s the only other scenario i see other than buying. How much we buy just depends on our odds.

 

Maybe you're putting too much faith in Vladdy and Bo as being our carriers through this "window".

[Dagagad]

Maybe you're putting too much faith in Vladdy and Bo as being our carriers through this "window".

 

It’s not so much faith, as it’s just a process. If it turns out they aren’t that good and no one replaces them, its the same outcome except the next rebuild starts earlier.

[BigCecil]

Yeah I think we underrate the level of risk involved in the Springer/Gausman/Berrios contracts. There’s real decline potential there in the latter parts of those deals, and if the team is not developing the next Vlad/Kirk/Bo/etc by 2025 then it’s going to be tough to create the sustainable winner they always talk about once Vlad/Bo are either extended or leave. That’s not even factoring the lack of pitching development (aside from Manoah) that hasn’t gotten better over time.

 

With that said, I agree with not going to all in this deadline. They are not catching the Yankees, and really only have 1, maybe 2, threats to their WC spot (Mariners and maybe CLE since they play in a s*** division). Do enough to get a WC spot and then hope Manoah/Gausman/Berrios can get you to the DS. After that it’s a crapshoot.

 

On same page. I just hope its the latter part of those 3 deals to see decline. Ryu's or Kooch the decline was early. 2/3 have been under performing already. Springer has been better than average when in line up but not what we hoped yet in 22 and Berrios has been an enigma. Gausman overall has been great.

[Stangstag]

Ryu is coming off the books in 2024 so replacing his payroll space could compensate for Guassman's decline.

 

Gaussman's decline probably won't be linear. He could go on like this to 35 or he could go the way of Ryu.

 

We are really worried about losing a 3 WAR short stop and a 3 WAR first basemen in 3 years? Easily replaceable players. If they return to 2021 level the next couple of years, that is great for the 2023 and 24 teams.

 

Moreno and Kirk could be the key players if used properly. Maybe the key is developing Moreno so that he can play 2nd or 3rd sometimes, and build around Kirk and Moreno each catching half the time.

 

Maybe Martinez will decrease his launch angle. Maybe Howritz is a 3 WAR first basemen and you can win with those... maybe Espinal is the short stop. I don't know. Just sick of the window. We can trade prospects and watch those prospects help a team beat us in late 2023.

 

Like Syndergard was actually the guy who was going to be ready for the stretch run of the next contending Blue Jays team... but we didn't know it.

 

Totally agree with this. Syndergaard alone would have helped the team more than Dickey in 2015/2016. That’s not even considering d’Arnaud.

 

And AA had the same mentality that Dagagad has right now. Started trading all the prospects 2012-2013-2014-2015 and the team didn’t even start winning until the end of the “window” (Bautista and Encarnacion’s final years.) The only trades that actually worked out were Donaldson (at the time we didn’t even give up a lot) and Price (rental).

 

They would have been better off keeping all those guys they traded away, and they would have continued to be competitive in 2017/2018 and maybe make supplemental signings to that roster. Then the “rebuild” period would have been 1-2 years tops.

 

Don’t sell the farm to try and compete in a “window”

[Dagagad]

Totally agree with this. Syndergaard alone would have helped the team more than Dickey in 2015/2016. That’s not even considering d’Arnaud.

 

And AA had the same mentality that Dagagad has right now. Started trading all the prospects 2012-2013-2014-2015 and the team didn’t even start winning until the end of the “window” (Bautista and Encarnacion’s final years.) The only trades that actually worked out were Donaldson (at the time we didn’t even give up a lot) and Price (rental).

 

They would have been better off keeping all those guys they traded away, and they would have continued to be competitive in 2017/2018 and maybe make supplemental signings to that roster. Then the “rebuild” period would have been 1-2 years tops.

 

Don’t sell the farm to try and compete in a “window”

 

I would agree with that concept if we didn’t have gausman, berrios and springer on long term contracts and we aren’t losing control of vlad and Bo in 4 years.

 

There is a decent chance that this is our most talented team in raw talent. Either this year or next. What exactly are we waiting for?

 

We are waiting for the inevitable season where springer misses 100 games? Or when gausman falls off towards the end of his deal?

 

Selling the farm isn’t a choice if not selling means you miss the playoffs while we are still good. If we didn’t want to sell the farm we should have been better at making the farm so good that it’s impossible to sell it all.

 

AA did the right thing. He understood that keeping Sydergaard wasn’t an option. He might have traded him for the wrong player but that’s an entirely different question.

 

You earn the right to keep the farm and be good every year. You don’t just decide to do that.

[Stangstag]

I would agree with that concept if we didn’t have gausman, berrios and springer on long term contracts and we aren’t losing control of vlad and Bo in 4 years.

 

There is a decent chance that this is our most talented team in raw talent. Either this year or next. What exactly are we waiting for?

 

We are waiting for the inevitable season where springer misses 100 games? Or when gausman falls off towards the end of his deal?

 

Selling the farm isn’t a choice if not selling means you miss the playoffs while we are still good. If we didn’t want to sell the farm we should have been better at making the farm so good that it’s impossible to sell it all.

 

AA did the right thing. He understood that keeping Sydergaard wasn’t an option. He might have traded him for the wrong player but that’s an entirely different question.

 

You earn the right to keep the farm and be good every year. You don’t just decide to do that.

 

Agree to disagree

[Dagagad]

Agree to disagree

 

Fair enough. Thankfully, we don’t have to make the choice.

[Stangstag]

Fair enough. Thankfully, we don’t have to make the choice.

 

Ross is definitely in the hot seat these next couple weeks. Being a GM is probably fun but extremely stressful. Gotta worry about the draft and entire direction of the franchise possibly