GDT: Jays @ Brewers Game 1 of 3

[Dagagad]

I absolutely don’t believe in biggio but I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong.

[Effit]

lol come on man

[havok24]

Let's not do this man.

[EdwinsParrot]

f***ing again:rolleyes:

[Solaxys]

was the right move, use your C-tier reliever in a 9-2 game to try and close it out.

 

Ah well, 3 pitchers not too bad I guess considering Charlie's antics.

[havok24]

Nothing is safe with this pen lmao.

[Daniel Labude]

Crazy how the pen is just as bad as last season now

[Dagagad]

This front office can’t put a good bullpen together. It’s a massive f***ing weakness.

[JFD]

Bo... is hard to watch do anything

[Solaxys]

Bo bad at bat and bad on field today

[Effit]

Wtf was that

[Daniel Labude]

Bo wtf. Great job by Espinal saving the out

[JFD]

Imagine Espy and Bo starting in the all star game lol

[Solaxys]

Thank you Cimber.

[havok24]

What the f*** was that?

[Solaxys]

Good game. All of AL East won except Yankees.

[EdwinsParrot]

gg, hope the offense keeps this up

[Omar]

Our pen sucks....but we won!

 

[Jays24]

Man... I'm so happy to see Biggio swinging the bat. I was never a big fan of his but no way was he that bad.

[Solaxys]

Burnes v Kikuchi lol.

Exciting.

[connorp]

Burnes v Kikuchi lol.

Exciting.

 

I wonder if there’s any data to back up the anecdotal observation that Jays seem to perform better than expected against the good pitchers and worse than expected vs scrubs

[Stangstag]

The bullpen is a major issue right now. Good thing the offense is firing like crazy because we need these big leads.

 

Gotta make some trades real quick before we lose a handful of important games the bullpen coughs up

[G-Snarls]

The bullpen is a major issue right now. Good thing the offense is firing like crazy because we need these big leads.

 

Gotta make some trades real quick before we lose a handful of important games the bullpen coughs up

 

Exactly

 

Team is scoring 6-10 runs every game since the last game of the Yankees series and yet only 3-2 in that stretch

[Solaxys]

I wonder if there’s any data to back up the anecdotal observation that Jays seem to perform better than expected against the good pitchers and worse than expected vs scrubs

 

So I went and did some analysis for that with some caveats, cause I don't have all the time in the world.

 

I tallied up the wins and losses against ERA of the opposing starter (didn't account for the starter doing well but the bullpen blowing it) as well as team OPS for the game (again could be against bullpen and not starter) for both the Jays and Yankees (cause I had a sneaky suspicion that Yankees not only faced 'weaker teams' but also weaker starting pitching overall).

If it was a bullpen game or starter got knocked out in the 1st inning, I chose to use the ERA of the bullpen arm that went 3+ innings or simply stated bullpen game and took the collective AVG ERA if all arms pitched <= 2 innings.

ERA picked is current rather than at the time to account for normalization rather than one bad start/one good start.

Some pitchers who are in the 3.00-4.00 ERA group are trending towards < 3.00 ERA group (Pivetta, for example).

Obviously ERA is not an end-all/be-all of pitcher excellence, but it was the easiest to fiddle with.

 

---

Jays

The Average ERA of all starting pitchers against whom we've won: 4.35

The Team OPS during these wins: 0.836

 

The Average ERA of all starting pitchers against whom we've lost: 3.94

The Team OPS during these losses: 0.612

 

Win% against pitchers <= 3.00 ERA: 0.5 | 16 games played, Team OPS of 0.637

Win% against pitchers (3.00 - 4.00 ERA]: 0.46 | 26 games played, Team OPS of 0.673

Win% against pitchers > 4.00 ERA: 0.7 | 28 games played, Team OPS of 0.863

 

Average ERA of all starting pitching faced: 4.17 +/- 1.924

 

---

Yankees

The Average ERA of all starting pitchers against whom they've won: 4.54

Their Team OPS during these wins: 0.787

The Average ERA of all starting pitchers against whom they've lost: 4.11

Their Team OPS during these losses: 0.599

 

Win% against pitchers <= 3.00 ERA: 0.75 | 16 games played, Team OPS of 0.656

Win% against pitchers (3.00 - 4.00 ERA]: 0.73 | 15 games played, Team OPS of 0.653

Win% against pitchers > 4.00 ERA: 0.7 | 38 games played, Team OPS of 0.810

 

Average ERA of all pitching faced: 4.43 +/- 1.982

 

---

TL;DR

There's some inkling that Jays are slightly better against elite pitching than average-above average pitching but not much of a difference.

Yankees have definitely faced worse starting pitching than the Jays; even when facing good teams, they lucked out quite a bit to get their 4th or 5th starter.

Our Team OPS is higher in every setting except when facing elite pitching - this can be attributed to age/experience, coaching diff, or the fact that Yankees faced 10 different elite pitchers (3 against Manoah, 3 against McClanahan, and 2 Rays' Bullpen sessions) while Jays faced 14 different elite pitchers across the spectrum (only double-ups were Montgomery and Cortes)

 

Another thing to note (and would be evident if I changed the parameters a bit) is Yankees only had 6 games with SP's ERA under 3.3 (but above 3).

Jays on the other hand 14 games with SP's ERA under 3.3 (but above 3).

Actually ridiculous how strong of a pitching we had to go up against.

 

Fun stuff.

[Spanky99]

Is Kirk just scorching hot or really this good at hitting? Or Both?

 

The bat to ball skills and eye just elite.

 

He's not this good, but damn, he's fun to watch.

[Spanky99]

You’re kinda skipping over the fact that Espinal is one of the best defensive players in baseball, and Biggio … is not.

 

Biggio still deserves more playing time, plus Espy's played a lot and scuffling, a day off here and there should help.

[Spanky99]

I saw somewhere that Gage changed his throwing motion after watching Giolito pitch. Shouldn’t teams be doing more of just trying random stuff with marginal guys? Seems to often come from the player themself and not the club.

 

This stuff happens all the time, mate? Sometimes you just can't polish a turd.