General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

I don’t know if I buy it takes that long for results to show in the pen. A lot of Seattle's work has been done in the last few years for example. I completely buy that argument with starting pitching.

 

I just think that 29th in that category after 6 years is just too low. Even if you decided to put very little resources into it, there should be more good stuff in the pen with a smart FO.

 

One caveat, is that the last draft and some comments from atkins indicate that they were and are behind in terms of pitching depth. So, it’s a known issue. I could buy the idea that this is something they are now addressing differently.

[M.E.]

Something I’ve been feeling for a while, not just from tonight’s game, but if you are talking about the very cutting edge of pitch development and pitch design, we probably aren’t even a top 10 team in baseball. I feel like we are on the hitting side probably.

 

It’s a problem. Maybe this is already being addressed and we will see the fruits soon… but man looking at Tampa bay, Houston, Yankees, seattle, Miami, Cleveland, even Baltimore now … we aren’t close.

 

It’s also baffling because these guys came from Cleveland.

 

The coach that did all the pitching education and design at Cleveland was a guy named Ruben Niebla. We was in the organization 10+ years and developed all of their horses. He is now the pitching coach at San Diego

[Horses Fart]

Any update on the bubble that should be placed around Nate?

[Laika]

I don’t know if I buy it takes that long for results to show in the pen. A lot of Seattle's work has been done in the last few years for example. I completely buy that argument with starting pitching.

 

I just think that 29th in that category after 6 years is just too low. Even if you decided to put very little resources into it, there should be more good stuff in the pen with a smart FO.

 

One caveat, is that the last draft and some comments from atkins indicate that they were and are behind in terms of pitching depth. So, it’s a known issue. I could buy the idea that this is something they are now addressing differently.

 

It doesn't have to take that long if you can poach or identify talent like the Rays do.

 

I don't know if Seattle has just been lucky or if it's a repeatable organizational skill but they have had some very good little waiver claims / trades in the pen last few years. Could just be luck though, we are really only talking about 3 or 4 acquisitions.

 

I still think the most sustainable approach is to try to develop a system that just shits out new high octane arms every year like Houston or LA.

 

One thing that the Jays might be guilty of is sticking with guys as starters too long. Like what if they took a completely different approach with guys like Hatch and Kay and Pearson and at some point one or two years ago just told them they are pure relievers - go to the pen and air it out.

[Benito]

I don’t know if I buy it takes that long for results to show in the pen. A lot of Seattle's work has been done in the last few years for example. I completely buy that argument with starting pitching.

 

I just think that 29th in that category after 6 years is just too low. Even if you decided to put very little resources into it, there should be more good stuff in the pen with a smart FO.

 

One caveat, is that the last draft and some comments from atkins indicate that they were and are behind in terms of pitching depth. So, it’s a known issue. I could buy the idea that this is something they are now addressing differently.

 

I agree, 29th is too low. That needs to be addressed, and I hope the front office has that in their plans. Sometimes though as well, with relievers, luck plays a factor. They can be volatile from year to year before something clicks, and they become elite. That applies to every facet of the roster, but I feel like that applies to the bullpen most.

[Dagagad]

It doesn't have to take that long if you can poach or identify talent like the Rays do.

 

I don't know if Seattle has just been lucky or if it's a repeatable organizational skill but they have had some very good little waiver claims / trades in the pen last few years. Could just be luck though, we are really only talking about 3 or 4 acquisitions.

 

I still think the most sustainable approach is to try to develop a system that just shits out new high octane arms every year like Houston or LA.

 

One thing that the Jays might be guilty of is sticking with guys as starters too long. Like what if they took a completely different approach with guys like Hatch and Kay and Pearson and at some point one or two years ago just told them they are pure relievers - go to the pen and air it out.

 

One of the reasons I believe in seattle is that they are a team I hear mentioned by ‘smart’ writers when they talk about teams at the cutting edge of pitching dev. You hear about them, the Yankees and the astros alot. I also hear Cleveland, miami, Tampa bay, minnesota (once I think) and Milwaukee.. and of course the dodgers but that seems almost more talent ID with them. I worry about Baltimore and even the Red Sox because they are Houston and Tampa guys.

 

I tend to believe short term things that could be alot of luck when itÂ’s backed by anecdotal stuff, especially anecdotes I heard a while back before all the results started coming in.

 

I agree on the most sustainable approach. Hopefully we get there.

[Carlos Danger]

One thing that the Jays might be guilty of is sticking with guys as starters too long. Like what if they took a completely different approach with guys like Hatch and Kay and Pearson and at some point one or two years ago just told them they are pure relievers - go to the pen and air it out.

 

You can do that when you have very strong SP depth.. Houston had such SP depth they had to put Javier in the pen last year since they didn't have a spot for him...

 

I think we would have done the same with the above aforementioned. However, we are not as deep as Houston and need those guys as SPs, or at least try them time and time again as SPs prior to even thinking about the pen..

[Dagagad]

You can do that when you have very strong SP depth.. Houston had such SP depth they had to put Javier in the pen last year since they didn't have a spot for him...

 

I think we would have done the same with the above aforementioned. However, we are not as deep as Houston and need those guys as SPs, or at least try them time and time again as SPs prior to even thinking about the pen..

 

I think Houston were also honestly ahead of everyone 5/6 years ago in talent ID of teenage pitchers in Latin countries.

 

I think I read somewhere that they went for older pitchers and were ahead in what they were looking for.

[Deadpool]

I think Houston were also honestly ahead of everyone 5/6 years ago in talent ID of teenage pitchers in Latin countries.

 

I think I read somewhere that they went for older pitchers and were ahead in what they were looking for.

 

I saw something mentioned about a month ago that was talking about swooping back in and signing some of those guys who weren't good enough at 15/16 for the international draft, and grabbing them at 18+ after they've had more development time. Seems like an area where the Jays could certainly improve (I mean, how many guys aren't good enough in high school, but become amazing talents in college?)

[Dagagad]

I saw something mentioned about a month ago that was talking about swooping back in and signing some of those guys who weren't good enough at 15/16 for the international draft, and grabbing them at 18+ after they've had more development time. Seems like an area where the Jays could certainly improve (I mean, how many guys aren't good enough in high school, but become amazing talents in college?)

 

I think they were also one of the first teams with rapsodo (sp?) machines out there and just signing guys based on spin rates and so on.

[Laika]

One of the reasons I believe in seattle is that they are a team I hear mentioned by ‘smart’ writers when they talk about teams at the cutting edge of pitching dev. You hear about them, the Yankees and the astros alot. I also hear Cleveland, miami, Tampa bay, minnesota (once I think) and Milwaukee.. and of course the dodgers but that seems almost more talent ID with them. I worry about Baltimore and even the Red Sox because they are Houston and Tampa guys.

 

I tend to believe short term things that could be alot of luck when itÂ’s backed by anecdotal stuff, especially anecdotes I heard a while back before all the results started coming in.

 

I agree on the most sustainable approach. Hopefully we get there.

 

We are in like, year 12 of people thinking Seattle is smart. I don't know why they get so much credit from people; in a lot of ways they have been a developmental disaster a long time running.

 

Remember the #6 org meme?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/organizational-rankings-6-seattle/

 

I will of course admit that things look promising for them on the pitching side. Kirby and Gilbert should be good.

 

I don't know. I'm just not worried about Toronto right now. I'm looking at the arms coming up who are currently in A and A+ and it all seems super comfy. The MLB org just needs to bridge to that wave, I think.

[jaysblue]

Idk what about Robbie Ray last year? That was a pretty remarkable career turnaround.

 

Ray was actually pretty solid with Arizona for a couple of years. He had seasons of 3.3 WAR in 2016 and 2017 which wasn't far off that from his 3.9 WAR season with Toronto. So not sure it was a huge remarkable career turnaround. He was always capable of putting together a season like that.

[Laika]

Ray was actually pretty solid with Arizona for a couple of years. He had seasons of 3.3 WAR in 2016 and 2017 which wasn't far off that from his 3.9 WAR season with Toronto. So not sure it was a huge remarkable career turnaround. He was always capable of putting together a season like that.

 

errrrrrrrrrr he was a dumpster fire for 1.5 seasons in Arizona before Toronto acquired him

 

and also "just okay" but trending down the two seasons before that

[Dagagad]

We are in like, year 12 of people thinking Seattle is smart. I don't know why they get so much credit from people; in a lot of ways they have been a developmental disaster a long time running.

 

Remember the #6 org meme?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/organizational-rankings-6-seattle/

 

I will of course admit that things look promising for them on the pitching side. Kirby and Gilbert should be good.

 

I don't know. I'm just not worried about Toronto right now. I'm looking at the arms coming up who are currently in A and A+ and it all seems super comfy. The MLB org just needs to bridge to that wave, I think.

 

The people I listen to have only been saying it for like 2/3 years and just pitching. I don’t know if it’s true or not but I believe it.

 

I’m not worried worried. I just think we aren’t close to elite in that area and that’s the kind of thing that extends windows.

[Benito]

Same@Laika. The front office has been very successful drafting and developing. Earlier they had more success with positions players, but that trend is switching to pitchers. They've been very good with maintaining the talent pipeline.

 

I don't get Baltimore concern either. Quickly looking at their past couple of drafts, and it doesn't seem that overwhelming to me. They like to spread their draft pool rather than bpa, and go overslot quite a bit. And from some of the readings, it seems like they are considering doing the same this year.

 

Maybe in other divisions, that strategy might work, but in AL East, you need elite talent to compete.

[Dagagad]

Same@Laika. The front office has been very successful drafting and developing. Earlier they had more success with positions players, but that trend is switching to pitchers. They've been very good with maintaining the talent pipeline.

 

I don't get Baltimore concern either. Quickly looking at their past couple of drafts, and it doesn't seem that overwhelming to me. They like to spread their draft pool rather than bpa, and go overslot quite a bit. And from some of the readings, it seems like they are considering doing the same this year.

 

Maybe in other divisions, that strategy might work, but in AL East, you need elite talent to compete.

 

You can be good at pitching dev and talent ID but if you aren’t willing to spend money, you need to REALLY GOOD at. The jury is still out on Baltimore in that regard.

 

Right now, this front office has drafted and developed one starting pitcher internally. I don’t think that’s evidence on its own that we are good at development. I think we have shown way more that we can develop hitting.

 

I’m not saying we are bad at it, but I’m also not seeing all this evidence. Drafting well and having good pitchers at low and high A right now, doesn’t really prove anything.

 

Edit: we’ll, maybe it proves things are changing.

[Spanky99]

Same@Laika. The front office has been very successful drafting and developing. Earlier they had more success with positions players, but that trend is switching to pitchers. They've been very good with maintaining the talent pipeline.

 

I don't get Baltimore concern either. Quickly looking at their past couple of drafts, and it doesn't seem that overwhelming to me. They like to spread their draft pool rather than bpa, and go overslot quite a bit. And from some of the readings, it seems like they are considering doing the same this year.

 

Maybe in other divisions, that strategy might work, but in AL East, you need elite talent to compete.

 

I thought Keith Law was joking when he did his mock, he also roasted them for this, IIRC.

[jaysblue]

errrrrrrrrrr he was a dumpster fire for 1.5 seasons in Arizona before Toronto acquired him

 

and also "just okay" but trending down the two seasons before that

 

He was yes, but many pitchers have 1 or 2 seasons that are dumpster fires in their career and then turn it around. Not discrediting the work Pete Walker has done and I'm sure he definitely helped Ray right the ship to get back on track, though I don't think the Ray from 2016 and 2017 was all that different than the Ray we saw in 2021. Advanced stats show that. Pretty much the same pitcher IMO. Maybe just tighter pants haha.

[jaysblue]

The Blue Jays built really solid bullpens under J.P. Ricciardi and AA. Did a great job at finding arms with high K% and did a great job with failed starters and turning them into reliable BP arms (e.g. Scott Downs, Brett Cecil, Casey Janssen, etc.)

[Benito]

You can be good at pitching dev and talent ID but if you aren’t willing to spend money, you need to REALLY GOOD at. The jury is still out on Baltimore in that regard.

 

Right now, this front office has drafted and developed one starting pitcher internally. I don’t think that’s evidence on its own that we are good at development. I think we have shown way more that we can develop hitting.

 

I’m not saying we are bad at it, but I’m also not seeing all this evidence. Drafting well and having good pitchers at low and high A right now, doesn’t really prove anything.

 

I noted that. Front office have been more successful with position players earlier, and that trend is switching to pitchers. I'm talking about overall development. They've been very successful maximizing value from their picks and international signings.

[Spanky99]

In other news... Vladito won player of the week in the AL. Oh noes he's a bust...

[jaysblue]

One thing that the Jays might be guilty of is sticking with guys as starters too long. Like what if they took a completely different approach with guys like Hatch and Kay and Pearson and at some point one or two years ago just told them they are pure relievers - go to the pen and air it out.

 

Agree. Some of those guys could have turned into good bullpen arms possibly. Pearson I still have hope for if he's healthy. If the Jays could turn Anthony Kay into the next Brett Cecil over the next two seasons, would take that in a heart beat.

[Laika]

One thing that you have to factor here when giving Baltimore any credit is the 2022 park factors. Their ballpark changes in conjunction with the ball changes have had a MASSIVE effect.

 

Their park factor for runs is now 0.85 on the season and for homers it's now 0.675.

 

I am not kidding.

 

In 2021 those numbers were 1.16 and 1.574

 

It's like taking a pitcher from the one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball and moving them directly into one of the most pitcher friendly.... so far.

[Laika]

Is his ERA better than his xFIP?

 

Lopez - yes

Tate - yes

Bautista - yes

Akin - yes

Baker - no

Krehbiel - yes

Perez - yes

 

6/7 when looking at RPs who have pitches 20+ innings for them

 

Just look at K rates. Some of these guys are not that amazing.

 

Get used to Baltimore pitchers being "good", by mirage.

[Dagagad]

Is his ERA better than his xFIP?

 

Lopez - yes

Tate - yes

Bautista - yes

Akin - yes

Baker - no

Krehbiel - yes

Perez - yes

 

6/7 when looking at RPs who have pitches 20+ innings for them

 

Just look at K rates. Some of these guys are not that amazing.

 

Get used to Baltimore pitchers being "good", by mirage.

 

Actually looking at their swinging strike rate, you are probably right. They aren’t getting swing and miss either.

[Benito]

I also wonder how some of those teams bullpen, would have performed in the AL East?

[Benito]

One thing that you have to factor here when giving Baltimore any credit is the 2022 park factors. Their ballpark changes in conjunction with the ball changes have had a MASSIVE effect.

 

Their park factor for runs is now 0.85 on the season and for homers it's now 0.675.

 

I am not kidding.

 

In 2021 those numbers were 1.16 and 1.574

 

It's like taking a pitcher from the one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball and moving them directly into one of the most pitcher friendly.... so far.

 

Wow. That's a big difference. Good info. I didn't realize there were ballpark changes to Camden.

[Laika]

Wow. That's a big difference. Good info. I didn't realize there were ballpark changes to Camden.

 

Yeah they changed the fences. It's murder for RHB now.

[RustyTrombone]

Has there even been more than like 2 or 3 homers hit to that part of LF at Camden this year? God what a joke of a org.

[Laika]

LOL look at the statcast park factors for Camden last year vs this year for RHB