General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Olerud363]

Imagine hitting cleanup when the offense is struggling and you get up to the plate with runners on base and one out and you take a look at the on deck circle and what appears to be a women’s high school softball player is batting behind you. Yeah I might be pressing for a bit in that situation too lmao

 

Tapia has had one game at clean up, 3 at 5. Last year Biggio had 10 games at 5.

 

Most of the time this year Vlad looks back and see's Matt Chapman or Lourdes on deck when Teo is out.

 

Last year when Teo was out he looked back and saw a .150 hitting Rowdy Tellez and then Biggio or Lourdes or a .230 (at the time) Semien...

 

There is zero difference between what Vlad had behind him games 10-25 last year with Teo out, as compared to this year.

[connorp]

Tapia has had one game at clean up, 3 at 5. Last year Biggio had 10 games at 5.

 

Most of the time this year Vlad looks back and see's Matt Chapman or Lourdes on deck when Teo is out.

 

Last year when Teo was out he looked back and saw a .150 hitting Rowdy Tellez and then Biggio or Lourdes or a .230 (at the time) Semien...

 

There is zero difference between what Vlad had behind him games 10-25 last year with Teo out, as compared to this year.

 

Bro. It’s not soley about who’s behind. Jays are scoring 1 or 2 runs every night. This is bad

[connorp]

Not being negative, it’ll come around but it’s been pititful

[Jimcanuck]

Bro. It’s not soley about who’s behind. Jays are scoring 1 or 2 runs every night. This is bad

 

Pitiful post. Offense is down across MLB

[Olerud363]

I mean, Vlad is at 149 wRC. You’re not going to just totally approach it like the guy needs as overhaul. You’re not going to grossly overreact to a handful of games like a message board would. But sure, at a certain point I think you could point out the higher K rates and such. bB drop off from last year… tough to fault a more aggressive approach anyway. If Vlad is willing to take the walks, I don’t think that changes how pitchers would pitch to him now. And what good is a walk when you know there’s garbo behind you

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Vlad is doing anything wrong at all. I don't even think he is pressing. Just saying it doesn't matter if Teo is behind him or not.

 

The theory that it does relies on the following logic

 

1. Tapia hit cleanup once and this freaked Vlad out and made him press

2. Most of the time it's Lourdes behind him, last year with Teo out it was Rowdy, Vlad presses with Lourdes back there but not Rowdy?

3. Chapman is ussually 5th, last year at this time it was often Biggio or a (at the time) struggling a bit Semien.

 

None of it makes any sense. What you could argue is the new offensive levels have everybody pressing a bit, because every game is now 3-2. That may be true.

 

However Teo won't be immune to this new reality and will also struggle a bit compared to last year, and won't change how anybody else gets pitched to... and shouldn't change whether they press or not.

 

That being said probably when Teo comes back the whole team will go on a run, because it was bound to happen, and because they are playing weaker competition, and then everyone will say 'told you Teo would make a difference'.

 

Laika knows this, but he's very savey in a corporate way. He knows the protection thing is ********, but he can get some points pretending it's true, because the Jays will improve their offense in the near future and that will randomly coincide with Teo coming back.

[Deadpool]

Not being negative, it’ll come around but it’s been pititful

 

When Vladdy has to swing at pitches off the plate because umps are routinely calling any pitch that's within 6" of the black a strike against him, I generally cut him (and the rest of the team) some slack.

[connorp]

Pitiful post. Offense is down across MLB

 

Someone chopped this down. Jays were 20th in runs scored the other day and probably went backwards

[connorp]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Vlad is doing anything wrong at all. I don't even think he is pressing. Just saying it doesn't matter if Teo is behind him or not.

 

The theory that it does relies on the following logic

 

1. Tapia hit cleanup once and this freaked Vlad out and made him press

2. Most of the time it's Lourdes behind him, last year with Teo out it was Rowdy, Vlad presses with Lourdes back there but not Rowdy?

3. Chapman is ussually 5th, last year at this time it was often Biggio or a (at the time) struggling a bit Semien.

 

None of it makes any sense. What you could argue is the new offensive levels have everybody pressing a bit, because every game is now 3-2. That may be true.

 

However Teo won't be immune to this new reality and will also struggle a bit compared to last year, and won't change how anybody else gets pitched to... and shouldn't change whether they press or not.

 

That being said probably when Teo comes back the whole team will go on a run, because it was bound to happen, and because they are playing weaker competition, and then everyone will say 'told you Teo would make a difference'.

 

Laika knows this, but he's very savey in a corporate way. He knows the protection thing is ********, but he can get some points pretending it's true, because the Jays will improve their offense in the near future and that will randomly coincide with Teo coming back.

 

Laila is a cocky bastard who thinks his excrement doesn’t stink. He doesn’t need to try to sneak in points. Logic fail

[connorp]

He’ll confirm

[JuniorFelix54]

Tapia has had one game at clean up, 3 at 5. Last year Biggio had 10 games at 5.

 

Most of the time this year Vlad looks back and see's Matt Chapman or Lourdes on deck when Teo is out.

 

Last year when Teo was out he looked back and saw a .150 hitting Rowdy Tellez and then Biggio or Lourdes or a .230 (at the time) Semien...

 

There is zero difference between what Vlad had behind him games 10-25 last year with Teo out, as compared to this year.

 

Tellez 7 HRs in 75 at bats hitting .267 with 21 RBIs, looks like another great trade.

[Brownie19]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Vlad is doing anything wrong at all. I don't even think he is pressing. Just saying it doesn't matter if Teo is behind him or not.

 

The theory that it does relies on the following logic

 

1. Tapia hit cleanup once and this freaked Vlad out and made him press

2. Most of the time it's Lourdes behind him, last year with Teo out it was Rowdy, Vlad presses with Lourdes back there but not Rowdy?

3. Chapman is ussually 5th, last year at this time it was often Biggio or a (at the time) struggling a bit Semien.

 

None of it makes any sense. What you could argue is the new offensive levels have everybody pressing a bit, because every game is now 3-2. That may be true.

 

However Teo won't be immune to this new reality and will also struggle a bit compared to last year, and won't change how anybody else gets pitched to... and shouldn't change whether they press or not.

 

That being said probably when Teo comes back the whole team will go on a run, because it was bound to happen, and because they are playing weaker competition, and then everyone will say 'told you Teo would make a difference'.

 

Laika knows this, but he's very savey in a corporate way. He knows the protection thing is ********, but he can get some points pretending it's true, because the Jays will improve their offense in the near future and that will randomly coincide with Teo coming back.

 

There is a f***ton of truth in this post.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Jays struggled with RISP last season too didn't they, and then really turned it on after a month or two?

[max silver]

Someone chopped this down. Jays were 20th in runs scored the other day and probably went backwards

 

That's mostly as a result of the pitiful average across the team with RISP. Do you really think that this collection of hitters is going to continue to bat below .200 with runners in scoring position? Once back to full strength this will largely be the same collection of hitters that regularly terrorized the opposition in 2021.

[Signal]

Someone chopped this down. Jays were 20th in runs scored the other day and probably went backwards

 

Yes in a league where scoring is down, the Jays were 20th yesterday. When you are below average in a league that is down in scoring runs, one cannot dismiss that the Jays have further problems than simply participating in a league wide phenomenon. IF the Jays were still positioned in the top five in runs scored as they were last year, than yes, the entire discussion could be dismissed by referring to the fact that runs are down league wide. BUT the Jays are below average in a league that is having difficulty scoring runs.

 

Jays last season were #1 in slugging and #1 in OPS. Does anyone here really believe that this team this year is going to match those numbers?

 

Jays are going to need improved D and improved pitching this season if they wish to put up a better win/loss record this year.

[connorp]

That's mostly as a result of the pitiful average across the team with RISP. Do you really think that this collection of hitters is going to continue to bat below .200 with runners in scoring position? Once back to full strength this will largely be the same collection of hitters that regularly terrorized the opposition in 2021.

 

I’m not shorting the Jays offense stock, no. I can just see why someone would be trying to make something happen at the plate. Eventually people will start moving around the bases

[connorp]

If Vlads K’s drop and bb rises, that would be the told you so stat

[connorp]

Anyone (as in me) who thought they may getting a sneaky good deal with Kirk in fantasy between C and DH, has been rewarded with 2 runs and 2 rbi all season. Woof

[Signal]

The Jays struggled with RISP last season too didn't they, and then really turned it on after a month or two?

 

My only concern is that last season, Vladdy, Bo, Semien and Hernandez had career years.

 

Semien is gone and it looks like he won't be able to reproduce those numbers anyways. But I think almost everything has to go right to assume that Vladdy, Bo and Hernandez will all put up the same numbers this year as they did last season. And that of course does not include that the Jays did not replace Semien with anyone who will be nearly as productive as he was last season.

 

I really do not see how this team is going to lead the league in both slugging and OPS like it did last year.

[max silver]

Yes in a league where scoring is down, the Jays were 20th in the league yesterday. When you are below average in a league that is down in scoring runs, one cannot dismiss that the Jays have further problems than simply participating in a league wide phenomenon. IF the Jays were still positioned in the top five in runs scored as they were last year, than yes, the entire discussion could be dismissed by referring to the fact that runs are down league wide. BUT the Jays are below average in a league that is having difficulty scoring runs.

 

Jays last season were #1 in slugging and #1 in OPS. Does anyone here really believe that this team this year is going to match those numbers?

 

This team is still 4th in slugging and 9th in OPS. The team has had few problems getting runners on base, the biggest issue has been the .172 average with runners in scoring position. Last season for comparison the team hit .270 with RISP with largely the same lineup. It's been reported that they have faced the highest average velocity and have regularly faced very good quality pitching. It is far too early to make any meaningful predictions about where they are going to finish offensively as this team hasn't had a chance to tee off against the weaker teams yet.

[wilko]

My only concern is that last season, Vladdy, Bo, Semien and Hernandez had career years.

 

Semien is gone and it looks like he won't be able to reproduce those numbers anyways. But I think almost everything has to go right to assume that Vladdy, Bo and Hernandez will all put up the same numbers this year as they did last season. And that of course does not include that the Jays did not replace Semien with anyone who will be nearly as productive as he was last season.

 

I really do not see how this team is going to lead the league in both slugging and OPS like it did last year.

 

[Brownie19]

If Vlads K’s drop and bb rises, that would be the told you so stat

 

That isn't true. BB% and K% fluctuate throughout the year. Last year Vlad's best offensive month was June (220 wRC+), but he also had a K% of 24% In September his K% was only 12%. You can't just watch his BB% and K% regress back to his career averages (or better) and caulk that up to Teo returning and give yourself the W.

[max silver]

My only concern is that last season, Vladdy, Bo, Semien and Hernandez had career years.

 

Semien is gone and it looks like he won't be able to reproduce those numbers anyways. But I think almost everything has to go right to assume that Vladdy, Bo and Hernandez will all put up the same numbers this year as they did last season. And that of course does not include that the Jays did not replace Semien with anyone who will be nearly as productive as he was last season.

 

I really do not see how this team is going to lead the league in both slugging and OPS like it did last year.

 

Vladdy is all of 23 years old and Bo is only 24. Are you honestly suggesting that these guys have peaked at these ages and they are already in their decline phase? Why won't Bo repeat his numbers from last season? His career WRC+ is 121 and last season he produced a 122, exactly 1 point higher than his career average. Since his breakout in 2019 Teoscar has produced a WRC+ of 136. His WRC+ last season was 132. Why is he not going to be able to recreate his numbers from a season ago? Vladdy is struggling at the plate a little bit but despite this he still sits at 149 for the season. Once he gets going again his numbers are going to rocket upwards again.

[connorp]

That isn't true. BB% and K% fluctuate throughout the year. Last year Vlad's best offensive month was June (220 wRC+), but he also had a K% of 24% In September his K% was only 12%. You can't just watch his BB% and K% regress back to his career averages (or better) and caulk that up to Teo returning and give yourself the W.

 

Fair enough but sorry to say, nobody gets to spike the football. We can all have our own opinions on the matter. “Pressing” is a widely accepted reality across all sports in a variety of different scenarios. This is because it’s not robots playing sports and approaches to the game can change for a variety of reasons

[Laika]

Anyone (as in me) who thought they may getting a sneaky good deal with Kirk in fantasy between C and DH, has been rewarded with 2 runs and 2 rbi all season. Woof

 

Yeah he hasn't found his swing at all. I don't think he's turned on a baseball once. Shame... I think he hit a few homers in spring and looked locked in.

[Brownie19]

Yes in a league where scoring is down, the Jays were 20th yesterday. When you are below average in a league that is down in scoring runs, one cannot dismiss that the Jays have further problems than simply participating in a league wide phenomenon. IF the Jays were still positioned in the top five in runs scored as they were last year, than yes, the entire discussion could be dismissed by referring to the fact that runs are down league wide. BUT the Jays are below average in a league that is having difficulty scoring runs.

 

Jays last season were #1 in slugging and #1 in OPS. Does anyone here really believe that this team this year is going to match those numbers?

 

Jays are going to need improved D and improved pitching this season if they wish to put up a better win/loss record this year.

 

Nobody (with logic) expected the Jays to finish the year #1 in slugging, OPS or runs scored this year. That would be a foolish expectation. Do we think we have a Top 10, probably Top 5 offense? Yes. Is RISP and extremely random stat with lots of luck involved? yes it is. Right now we're a bit snake bitten with RISP, but over the course of 162 games, it should normalize - which will help our runs scored rise. And as pointed out, it's not like our SLUG% or OPS% have plummeted, we're still Top 10 in each.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Brownie19

[Brownie19]

Fair enough but sorry to say, nobody gets to spike the football. We can all have our own opinions on the matter. “Pressing” is a widely accepted reality across all sports in a variety of different scenarios. This is because it’s not robots playing sports and approaches to the game can change for a variety of reasons

 

I don't disagree - there's no way of really having a crystal clear, black and white answer on this matter. However, I do believe the stats suggest lineup protection isn't a thing. I do struggle with that having played baseball for the past 30+ years myself. If I had some shitbag hitting behind me, pitchers would pitch around me more and I would try to expand a bit, knowing the guy behind me sucks.

 

Also - there's a difference between pressing at the plate and changing your approach based on lineup protection. You can be pressing at the plate with a superstar behind you - example, Bichette, Bo.

[connorp]

Yes, pressing is hardly exclusive to protection. Tried to cover that. Players that go into slump can press. After a trade like Laila mentioned, team is struggling so try to make something happen… in that sense it could be a plus Teo coming back in the lineup whether he’s hitting before or after Vlad..

[connorp]

As mentioned, if you’re playing and people are moving around the bases, it can change your approach vs when nobody is crossing home plate.

[Signal]

Vladdy is all of 23 years old and Bo is only 24. Are you honestly suggesting that these guys have peaked at these ages and they are already in their decline phase? Why won't Bo repeat his numbers from last season? His career WRC+ is 121 and last season he produced a 122, exactly 1 point higher than his career average. Since his breakout in 2019 Teoscar has produced a WRC+ of 136. His WRC+ last season was 132. Why is he not going to be able to recreate his numbers from a season ago? Vladdy is struggling at the plate a little bit but despite this he still sits at 149 for the season. Once he gets going again his numbers are going to rocket upwards again.

 

NO, I never said that they would never get those numbers again. BUT, I am suggesting that it is NOT a given that all three will replicate those numbers THIS year. They may, but it also possible for many different reasons...many we cannot even predict, that they will not. All I am saying is that it is an 'assumption' that ALL three will replicate those numbers. Yes, if everything goes well, yes, they all may just replicate those numbers BUT we are assuming everything goes well.

[Signal]

 

Damn do I hope you are right! I would LOVE to see Chappy explode.