GDT (3/4) | Blue Jays (61-51) @ Angels (57-57) | August 11 — 9:38 PM

[Laika]

Yes, and rolled over soft hit balls to the left side. He's slumping, s*** happens, are you worried or something?

 

Not really

[connorp]

thank you?

 

doesn't change the point

 

his exit velos are not relevant. he always hits the ball hard even when he sucks.

 

Right, because even good Vlad only smokes ball in the air. Forgot

[Laika]

Right, because even good Vlad only smokes ball in the air. Forgot

 

what?

[Olerud363]

Okay, but it's not a positive. He was an elite exit velocity guy last year and he was a replacement level player.

 

He will always hit the ball hard. When he is playing poorly his launch angles will be off.

 

In the second half so far his LD% is only 7.6%. It was over 21% in the first half.

 

Interestingly, his GB% is not up. Groundballs were the problem in 2020 and 2019 but so far in the second half his nemesis is lazy pop ups and flyballs.

 

Someone did a video of his hardest hit contact that has been caught. It was a lot of 99-105 mph drives 385 to 410 foot to center. Not pulling the ball much.

 

99-105 mph fly balls to center are kind of useless even with a good launch angle.

 

Previously he was either pulling the fly balls more, or had about 10 mph more exit velocity.

[Spanky99]

Someone did a video of his hardest hit contact that has been caught. It was a lot of 99-105 mph drives 385 to 410 foot to center. Not pulling the ball much.

 

99-105 mph fly balls to center are kind of useless even with a good launch angle.

 

Previously he was either pulling the fly balls more, or had about 10 mph more exit velocity.

 

This is silly.

[Laika]

Someone did a video of his hardest hit contact that has been caught. It was a lot of 99-105 mph drives 385 to 410 foot to center. Not pulling the ball much.

 

99-105 mph fly balls to center are kind of useless even with a good launch angle.

 

Previously he was either pulling the fly balls more, or had about 10 mph more exit velocity.

 

I think the left to right direction of batted balls is not a concern. He has hit a few deep flyballs to dead centre but that's some very small sample size stuff and over time that kind of approach is good (not trying to pull everything).

 

The up and down direction of batted balls may be a concern because that was a long term problem for him before 2021. When he is out of shape he stops squaring up baseballs, we already know this. If he is tired/fatigued we might see the same thing.

[Olerud363]

This is silly.

 

Well it's true. A 385 fly ball to center is an out. He isn't getting enough exit velocity to get the ball out to center. He was previously....

 

What's silly about it? it happens to be true. It could be a fluke, he could be tired and losing a bit of bat speed... I don't know. I'm not trying to predict the future here... just pointing out that there was some video of his recent hard contact... all fly balls to center dying on the track. I didn't make the video, if you have a complaint find it on twitter and direct complaint to them.

[Spanky99]

Well it's true. A 385 fly ball to center is an out. He isn't getting enough exit velocity to get the ball out to center. He was previously....

 

What's silly about it? it happens to be true. It could be a fluke, he could be tired and losing a bit of bat speed... I don't know. I'm not trying to predict the future here... just pointing out that there was some video of his recent hard contact... all fly balls to center dying on the track. I didn't make the video, if you have a complaint find it on twitter and direct complaint to them.

 

K.....

[LGBJ29]

I think the left to right direction of batted balls is not a concern. He has hit a few deep flyballs to dead centre but that's some very small sample size stuff and over time that kind of approach is good (not trying to pull everything).

 

The up and down direction of batted balls may be a concern because that was a long term problem for him before 2021. When he is out of shape he stops squaring up baseballs, we already know this. If he is tired/fatigued we might see the same thing.

 

This is one thing I think I am noticing with Vlad. He's never played a full 162 so I think the dog days are getting to him a bit. He looks like he put back on some of that weight he lost in the offseason and he's fallen back into some old habits. Long term he's gonna be fine though. He's a generational hitter, he'll figure it out.

[Olerud363]

I think the left to right direction of batted balls is not a concern. He has hit a few deep flyballs to dead centre but that's some very small sample size stuff and over time that kind of approach is good (not trying to pull everything).

 

The up and down direction of batted balls may be a concern because that was a long term problem for him before 2021. When he is out of shape he stops squaring up baseballs, we already know this. If he is tired/fatigued we might see the same thing.

 

His hr/fly ball was super low his rookie season, not great his second season and awesome most of this season. The last couple of weeks it seems a lot of fly balls to center, not hit quite hard enough to be useful.

 

A 110 mph fly ball to center is useful. A 99 mph fly ball pullted to left is useful. A 99 mph fly ball hit to dead center is not useful. Not sure what is so controversial about this.. He is not squaring the ball up as much it's showing up in lots of ways... more pop ups, and the balls he is hitting at 20-30 degrees aren';t as hard as they were earlier in the year. .

[Laika]

His hr/fly ball was super low his rookie season, not great his second season and awesome most of this season. The last couple of weeks it seems a lot of fly balls to center, not hit quite hard enough to be useful.

 

A 110 mph fly ball to center is useful. A 99 mph fly ball pullted to left is useful. A 99 mph fly ball hit to dead center is not useful. Not sure what is so controversial about this.. He is not squaring the ball up as much it's showing up in lots of ways... more pop ups, and the balls he is hitting at 20-30 degrees aren';t as hard as they were earlier in the year. .

 

Here is what is "controversial" --> the fact that he has hit some 99 mph flyouts to straightaway CF in the last few weeks is almost certainly PURE RANDOMNESS and not any indication or measurement of skill change.

 

When you say "100 mph flyballs to centre are kind of useless" it's like saying "110 mph line drives directly at the first baseman are useless".

 

I mean sure, the fact is true but you are implying that the player is doing something wrong or needs to change. That's the dumb part.

A player who is pounding flyballs 100 mph+ to deep centrefield will be absolutely fine long term because players don't aim their batted balls left and right and over a long sample their fair share of those will find the gaps or get over the fence.

[Olerud363]

Here is what is "controversial" --> the fact that he has hit some 99 mph flyouts to straightaway CF in the last few weeks is almost certainly PURE RANDOMNESS and not any indication or measurement of skill change.

 

When you say "100 mph flyballs to centre are kind of useless" it's like saying "110 mph line drives directly at the first baseman are useless".

 

I mean sure, the fact is true but you are implying that the player is doing something wrong or needs to change. That's the dumb part.

A player who is pounding flyballs 100 mph+ to deep centrefield will be absolutely fine long term because players don't aim their batted balls left and right and over a long sample their fair share of those will find the gaps or get over the fence.

 

 

His 110 mph balls to center may be turning into 100 mph balls to center because of fatigue.

 

Take a look at Marcus Semien's batted ball profile. Marcus doesn't hit the ball as hard as Vlad but pulls it more and hits more fly balls.

 

What do you think would happen to Marcus Semien if he had Vlad's pull% and ground ball rate?

 

What do you think would happen to Vlad if he lost some exit velocity because of fatigue and hit the ball about as hard as Semien?

 

If I am implying anything, it is not that Vlad is hitting to center more, it's that Vlad is getting tired, not hitting the ball as hard, and that hurts him because he uses the big part of the park a lot.

[Olerud363]

Here is what is "controversial" --> the fact that he has hit some 99 mph flyouts to straightaway CF in the last few weeks is almost certainly PURE RANDOMNESS and not any indication or measurement of skill change.

 

When you say "100 mph flyballs to centre are kind of useless" it's like saying "110 mph line drives directly at the first baseman are useless".

 

 

A better analogy would be 105-115 mph ground balls into the shift vs 95-105 mph ground balls into the shift... there is going to be a difference in the number that get through.

 

What I observed, again from a video from twitter was that Vlad was hitting a bunch of 95-105 mph fly balls to the deep part of the park that were 105-115 mph earlier in the season. Does the data back that up? Is it predictive? I don't know,.

[Stangstag]

A better analogy would be 105-115 mph ground balls into the shift vs 95-105 mph ground balls into the shift... there is going to be a difference in the number that get through.

 

What I observed, again from a video from twitter was that Vlad was hitting a bunch of 95-105 mph fly balls to the deep part of the park that were 105-115 mph earlier in the season. Does the data back that up? Is it predictive? I don't know,.

 

Yes, that's why these posts are silly

[Laika]

A better analogy would be 105-115 mph ground balls into the shift vs 95-105 mph ground balls into the shift... there is going to be a difference in the number that get through.

 

What I observed, again from a video from twitter was that Vlad was hitting a bunch of 95-105 mph fly balls to the deep part of the park that were 105-115 mph earlier in the season. Does the data back that up? Is it predictive? I don't know,.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=665489&playerType=batter&name=Vladimir%20Guerrero%20Jr.&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square%20(Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=3d-birdsEye&chartName=3D%20Spray%20-%20Birds%20Eye&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=[%22R%22]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2021]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=95&exitVelocityLT=105&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90

 

In the last month the guy has like, 2 or 3 flyballs in the 95-105 range that went to CF or RCF. They were not particularly close to being homers. It's a negligible sample.

 

He does have three balls hit 106 mph + to CF or RCF that just died short of being homers in that timeframe. There is still really no point to be made there.

 

(full link didn't work but you can click around and figure out how to work the chart)

[Olerud363]

Yes, that's why these posts are silly

 

I guess we will see. If the hypothesis that he is fatigued and lost exit velocity is correct (which I hope it isn't) this trend will continue.

 

Players can't aim a ball in a single at bat, but they have spray distributions over time, and if Vlad is fatigued he may not pull the ball as much.

 

If he is fatigued he may lose 5 -10 mph of exit velocity. This will result in a lot more outs to the big part of the park.

 

Believe me I hope he is not fatigued and starts hitting 440 foot rockets again, starting tonight off Ohtani.