Top Free Agents Remaining | FanGraphs Tracker Top 75

[TwistedLogic]

Of course he gets credit for that, but the post I quoted pointed out his "DRAFTING" as being really good (of course it also wasn't HIS drafting).

 

In reality he accumulated a TON of high picks (genius move) which through sheer numbers produced some good prospects. It also produced a ton of biblical flameouts (see: Tyler Gonzalez or whatever his name was lmao) and a horrendous "process" to drafting which saw us repeatedly fail to sign top picks. The below average player development during his tenure also plays into that as well, as obviously some of those busts may well have developed differently under a better system of development. AA really got a ton of credit for drafting/minor league building after JPR's failure in that sphere, but we're actually much stronger in this area under the Shapiro/Atkins regime. All you need to see is the extremely calculated and precise way they execute drafts: they make sound picks following an obvious process, take risks where presented/needed, and sign EVERYONE. Their drafts come down to spending almost every dollar allotted to them, and you can really tell that they're vetting players significantly and doing their work.

 

Draft results under AA declined significantly once the MLB closed the comp-pick loophole and he had to play with the same base number of picks as everyone else. His drafts in Atlanta haven't been very noteworthy either, IMO.

 

No argument there.

 

On a side note, I also seem to recall AA getting a little unlucky on a couple of sliding prospects. They would have had Lucas Giolito in 2012 until he stopped sliding a single pick before they went. Same thing happened the year after in 2013, when Meadows went one pick before them. Of course, they did finally luck out in 2014 with a sliding prospect when they got Jeff Hoffman, but we all know how that turned out.

[Jimcanuck]

Beeston and Gillick worked together for 17 seasons. It's pretty safe to say that they both had a role in the success of the team. People look down on Beeston because of some things he said in his second stint, but he was extremely respected and competent in his day.

 

Always thought he rode Gillick coattails myself.

[Grant77]

Always thought he rode Gillick coattails myself.

 

You think Gillick went to ownership and got the league's highest payroll for several years? Or created the business model that led to the league's biggest fanbase at the time? It's almost inconceivable that it wasn't a collaborative effort. Others in MLB certainly saw it that way.

[TwistedLogic]

[Spanky99]

When Beeston was the bean counter the Jays had multiple years of swimming with the big boys vying for FA. Top payroll in MLB in 93

 

Winfield, Molitor, Clemens, Jack Morris, Jose Canseco the likes we have not seen signed since. Beeston was a top respected President and helped put The Jays on the map.

 

Uhmm... Ryu/Springer and Semien not ring a bell?

[Jays24]

Uhmm... Ryu/Springer and Semien not ring a bell?

 

And I have a feeling we will make another big splash next offseason. We might remember these few years of free agency as some of the best. Obviously it will all come down to how this translates onto the field.

[TwistedLogic]

Major Update:

 

I've done a complete overhaul to the OP in this thread. The Top 75 free agents list has been completely updated to reflect all of the changes in Steamer projections since I first posted the list on here. I've also added a few players to the list and might expand it further when I get more free time.

 

I've also added a second tracker using the FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents list that was published after the 2020 season.

 

In reading the Top 50 list, the columns represent the following:

 

1: FanGraphs Top 50 Rank*

2: Player Name

3: Steamer WAR Projection (Present Day)

4: Steamer WAR Projection (October 2020, the date FanGraphs published the list)

5: Signing team

 

*Because of how long it's been since FanGraphs made that list, some of the player projections have seen some wild changes. As a result, I've made several tweaks to FanGraphs' list to reflect the present-day valuations. I've noted the edits I made to the list below, with reasoning on each change.

 

- Switched Springer (Previously 2, now 1) and Realmuto (1>2): Springer's projection has adjusted from 4.7 WAR then down to 4.5 now. Realmuto's projection has adjusted from 4.4 then down to 3.8 now.

 

- Switched Gausman (14>13) and Paxton (13>14): Paxton's projection has adjusted from 2.3 then down to 2.1 now. Gausman's projection has adjusted from 2.4 then up to 2.7 now.

 

- Switched Ozuna (5>6) and LaMahieu (6>5): Ozuna's projection has adjusted from 3.4 then down to 3.1 now. LaMahieu's has changed from 3.8 then up to 3.9 now.

 

- Dropped Jackie Bradley 9 spots (18>26): 0.8 WAR decrease in projections (1.9 > 1.1).

 

- Dropped Tommy La Stella 4 spots (19>23): 1.0 WAR decrease in projections (2.7 > 1.7).

 

- Dropped Jurickson Profar 6 spots (35>41): 1.1 WAR decrease in his projections (2.0 > 0.9).

 

- I also swapped Walker (20>22) and Odorizzi (22>20) because even though the two projections have stayed relatively the same, Odorizzi has always had a much more favorable projection than Walker.

Edited February 9, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[Spanky99]

I thought Pat Gillick was the primary architect of the glory years.

 

He was, having Labbatts as our owner was also a big part of it. They spent more than all the other MLB owners!

[Jimcanuck]

He was, having Labbatts as our owner was also a big part of it. They spent more than all the other MLB owners!

 

Yep, Labatt Blue and the Toronto Blue Jays were synonymous for a long time. Until those Interbrew bastards came along. Things went downhill after that.

[wilko]

Yep, Labatt Blue and the Toronto Blue Jays were synonymous for a long time. Until those Interbrew bastards came along. Things went downhill after that.

 

Remember the days of watching "Labatts Blue Jay's Baseball" on CBC.

[Krylian]

Remember the days of watching "Labatts Blue Jay's Baseball" on CBC.

 

Was that with Don Chevrier and Fergie Olver? "How about those BlueJays?"

[Spanky99]

Was that with Don Chevrier and Fergie Olver? "How about those BlueJays?"

 

lol... Fergie the diddler, that guy turned out vile.

[TwistedLogic]

Jays target off the board.

[TwistedLogic]

[TwistedLogic]

Overnight roundup:

[TwistedLogic]

Rich Hill signing for 2.5M with Tampa. Gotta imagine that if the Jays were in at the same price range there'd be a good chance he'd pick them instead. Hoping the fact that they passed on him means that they have their sights set on a pitching target already.

 

Side note: I'm not about to enjoy hearing Buck Martinez call him Richeel for an entire season.

[TwistedLogic]

[G-Snarls]

Orioles sign Matt Harvey

 

Already signed Felix Hernandez

 

Any chance either works out??

[connorp]

Orioles sign Matt Harvey

 

Already signed Felix Hernandez

 

Any chance either works out??

 

Can’t really fault them for trying. Poor man’s version of our attempt to bolster SP

[Jays24]

 

Damn... we spent years trying to get Bruce here. He needs to sign a one day with us before retiring lol

[G-Snarls]

12:07PM: Harvey will earn $1MM if he makes the Orioles’ active roster, Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun writes

[TwistedLogic]

[TwistedLogic]

8 guys remain on the FanGraphs Top 50:

 

Paxton, Odorizzi, Walker, Bradley, Rosenthal, Gardner, Porcello, Shoemaker.

[Jays24]

8 guys remain on the FanGraphs Top 50:

 

Paxton, Odorizzi, Walker, Bradley, Rosenthal, Gardner, Porcello, Shoemaker.

 

We gotta get Paxton/Odorizzi or at worst Walker

[TwistedLogic]

We gotta get Paxton/Odorizzi or at worst Walker

 

If they were genuinely in on Bauer up until the very end, they could probably afford both Paxton and Odorizzi and also bring in Rosenthal all in the same amount of money that they'd probably been offering Bauer alone.

 

They're not going to do it but that's what it would cost.

[Ray]

Paxton back to the Mariners. Not sure how reliable this guy is, but he is from the same town as Paxton.

 

[43211234]

1/$8.5M + incentives that can raise that to $10M for Paxton.

 

I would have done that in a heartbeat.

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

1/$8.5M + incentives that can raise that to $10M for Paxton.

 

I would have done that in a heartbeat.

 

Heck yeah

 

OK I'm bummed about that

[TwistedLogic]

Big BJMB target off the board. No way he made sense for the Jays at that price.