General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[TheHurl]

Nats didnt really have a great pen come to think of it. But they had horse starters and they rode them and Hudson who we sent them.

 

I was just looking up stuff on Tulo deal to see what if any paid in 21. This article probably wrong. Says it was off in 20?

 

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/11/02/blue-jays-troy-tulowitzkis-contract-finally-off-the-books/

 

Agree with BTS - dont need tunnel vision on Ray. He has been great but for some reason just not really ready to trust it for the type of deal I think he will be offered.

 

According to Roster Resource we had the following "other" salary transactions this year.

 

$ due for buyout of Troy Tulowitzki $4,000,000

$ paid by Blue Jays to Joe Panik (traded to MIA 6/29) $810,000

$ due for buyout of Chase Anderson $500,000

$ owed from MIL (John Axford trade) -$1

$ paid by Giants to Tyler Chatwood (contract selected 8/17 after release from TOR) -$147,226

$ paid by Mets to Jacob Barnes (traded to TOR 6/19) -$316,216

$ paid by Marlins to Adam Cimber (traded to TOR 6/29) -$405,000

$ paid by Diamondbacks to Joakim Soria (traded to TOR 7/30) -$2,270,270

$ owed from MIA (Corey Dickerson/Adam Cimber trade) -$2,650,000

$ paid by Twins to José Berríos (traded to TOR 7/30) -$3,956,757

$ paid by Marlins to Corey Dickerson (traded to TOR 6/29) -$4,159,459

$ paid by Nationals to Brad Hand (traded to TOR 7/29) -$6,754,054

[BTS]

So the benefit of having Berrios signed for next year is that we can let the better pitcher Ray walk?

 

I think that's an odd way to frame things. Berrios was acquired to help with the playoff push this year, and to fill a rotation spot next year. His presence means that the team has one spot to fill in the offseason instead of two. They have a ton of flexibility now in terms of how they choose to fill the spot, and they also have a comp pick on the table to consider if they decide they prefer one of the other frontline arms over Ray.

 

I also think Ray and Berrios are pretty interchangeable arms going forward. If I had to give 5/90 or something to one of them I'd probably choose Berrios.

[connorp]

I think that's an odd way to frame things. Berrios was acquired to help with the playoff push this year, and to fill a rotation spot next year. His presence means that the team has one spot to fill in the offseason instead of two. They have a ton of flexibility now in terms of how they choose to fill the spot, and they also have a comp pick on the table to consider if they decide they prefer one of the other frontline arms over Ray.

 

I also think Ray and Berrios are pretty interchangeable arms going forward. If I had to give 5/90 or something to one of them I'd probably choose Berrios.

 

It’s definitely an acceptable way to frame things. They made a move for Berrios, it wasn’t much of a plus move so far with just him but also the team reversed course. Obviously that’s not the deal’s fault but all sports are results based businesses. There’s no cupcakes for trying. And as mentioned, SP wasn’t even the glaring need that has continued to pop up.

 

Everyone is now completely s***ing on Martin due to the “gf break-up, or “got fired from job” factor, which is everyone hated it at first but then convinced themselves it was probably for the best. Yeah his swing is messed up this year but the tools are still there.

 

If you lose Ray and keep Berrios next year, you literally traded away very intriguing prospects for a bag in donuts

[connorp]

Plus if you don’t sign Sem, instead of running the corpse of Biggio out there, you shift Martin to the less demanding position somewhere in the IF. Probably will be some Panik type moves

[BTS]

It’s definitely an acceptable way to frame things. They made a move for Berrios, it wasn’t much of a plus move so far with just him but also the team reversed course. Obviously that’s not the deal’s fault but all sports are results based businesses. There’s no cupcakes for trying. And as mentioned, SP wasn’t even the glaring need that has continued to pop up.

 

Everyone is now completely s***ing on Martin due to the “gf break-up, or “got fired from job” factor, which is everyone hated it at first but then convinced themselves it was probably for the best. Yeah his swing is messed up this year but the tools are still there.

 

If you lose Ray and keep Berrios next year, you literally traded away very intriguing prospects for a bag in donuts

 

If the team loses Ray it's because either a) he doesn't want to stay, or they aren't comfortable with his contract demands and see better options on the FA market. They're not going to lose Ray because of Berrios. He just gives them the flexibility to not be desperate to retain him at all cost.

 

Like, is the Berrios trade acceptable if they sign Ray, but unacceptable if they let him walk, get a comp pick, and sign Scherzer or Gausman?

[connorp]

If the team loses Ray it's because either a) he doesn't want to stay, or they aren't comfortable with his contract demands and see better options on the FA market. They're not going to lose Ray because of Berrios. He just gives them the flexibility to not be desperate to retain him at all cost.

 

Like, is the Berrios trade acceptable if they sign Ray, but unacceptable if they let him walk, get a comp pick, and sign Scherzer or Gausman?

 

Your first paragraph is making your own assumptions, not unlike me making my own.

 

As for the second, yes, if they add another 1/2 SP it would make the deal more appealing as it wouldn’t be a trade-off

[connorp]

Hard adding anything near a 1/2 in FA if they’re not trying to build back value

[BTS]

Your first paragraph is making your own assumptions, not unlike me making my own.

 

As for the second, yes, if they add another 1/2 SP it would make the deal more appealing as it wouldn’t be a trade-off

 

Everything I've posted over the last two pages is that there might be other options that make more sense than Ray, especially given the comp pick. I don't think anyone would be pleased if he's allowed to walk on a reasonable deal and not replaced with another SP1 or 2.

[glory]

Looking a bit deeper into the FA SP market:

 

Noah Syndergaard (29) -> probably signing a short term deal to recoup value, maybe if the Jays gave him a huge AAV on a one year deal they'd have a chance

 

Justin Verlander (39) -> not signing here

 

Max Scherzer (37) -> not signing here

 

Clayton Kershaw (34) -> not signing here

 

Eduardo Rodriguez (29) -> Might be the most realistic name no one has talked about, depends on what his ask would be

 

Jon Gray (30) -> Realistic target

 

Marcus Stroman (30) -> No chance

 

Carlos Rodon (29) -> lack of established track record, but probably would be pricey either way

 

Whether Ray is more or less of a risk signing than any of the realistic ones above is anyone's guess. I'm not even going to try to predict pitching health/performance YOY.

[BTS]

Looking a bit deeper into the FA SP market:

 

Noah Syndergaard (29) -> probably signing a short term deal to recoup value, maybe if the Jays gave him a huge AAV on a one year deal they'd have a chance

 

Justin Verlander (39) -> not signing here

 

Max Scherzer (37) -> not signing here

 

Clayton Kershaw (34) -> not signing here

 

Eduardo Rodriguez (29) -> Might be the most realistic name no one has talked about, depends on what his ask would be

 

Jon Gray (30) -> Realistic target

 

Marcus Stroman (30) -> No chance

 

Carlos Rodon (29) -> lack of established track record, but probably would be pricey either way

 

Whether Ray is more or less of a risk signing than any of the realistic ones above is anyone's guess. I'm not even going to try to predict pitching health/performance YOY.

 

Gausman!

[glory]

Gausman!

 

Forgot about him. Jays apparently offered 3/40 to him in the winter, which he was smart to turn down. That price is going to be much higher this winter. Curious to see if they like him enough to pay that price. I doubt it, but Atkins has shown he's willing to dive deep in free agency (Springer/Ryu), so who knows.

[connorp]

Gausman!

 

Think Gausman goes with the Top 3, doesn’t he?

[connorp]

Forgot about him. Jays apparently offered 3/40 to him in the winter, which he was smart to turn down. That price is going to be much higher this winter. Curious to see if they like him enough to pay that price. I doubt it, but Atkins has shown he's willing to dive deep in free agency (Springer/Ryu), so who knows.

 

Besides that didn’t he not want to be traded here? Maybe I misremember

[BCZ]

When will Berrios not suck?

[RustyTrombone]

When will Berrios not suck?

 

When he decides hes pissed you off enough.

[Jimcanuck]

>50% chance Gausman goes back to being mediocre. He was palatable at last year's price, but for what he will command this year, it's concerning.

 

Who are the buy lows is the better Q.

[Spanky99]

>50% chance Gausman goes back to being mediocre. He was palatable at last year's price, but for what he will command this year, it's concerning.

 

Who are the buy lows is the better Q.

 

How come?

[Terminator]

Bring back Stro! I miss his warm and lovable personality.

[Spanky99]

 

Get it Birds!

[The Iceman]

5/125 for Semien is a steal. The guy has turned into a perennial Top 5 MVP candidate.

 

And flip him to SS after he signs.

[Spanky99]

>50% chance Gausman goes back to being mediocre. He was palatable at last year's price, but for what he will command this year, it's concerning.

 

Who are the buy lows is the better Q.

 

How come?

 

I'm seriously intrigued why you think Gausman will return to mediocre.

[Spanky99]

And flip him to SS after he signs.

 

I'd assume that's in their negotiations.

[The Iceman]

At end of year...

 

Gurriel 1 WAR

Biggio 0 WAR

Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season).

 

Fix those 3 in 2022

 

Gurrien 3 WAR

Biggio 3 WAR

Vlad 6 WAR

 

That is 7 more WAR

 

No Charlie 3 WAR

Less injured BP 4 WAR

Berrios and Pearson in the rotation 4 WAR

[Krylian]

Overton down.

Wakeem Soria back.

[Spanky99]

Robbie Ray's RA9 is the best in the league at 5.3...

 

WARP 3rd.

[polar bear]

Plus if you don’t sign Sem, instead of running the corpse of Biggio out there, you shift Martin to the less demanding position somewhere in the IF. Probably will be some Panik type moves

My god,Sem, corpse of Biggio LOL!

Where did you dig this up pal.

[John_Havok]

Robbie Ray's RA9 is the best in the league at 5.3...

 

WARP 3rd.

 

Might be thread worthy on it's own, but what would a Ray extension look like at this point?

 

Dude is killing it this year, well beyond expectations and is definitely going to be looking to get PAID.

[John_Havok]

My god,Sem, corpse of Biggio LOL!

Where did you dig this up pal.

 

Dig up... corpse of Biggio.... I see what you did there.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm seriously intrigued why you think Gausman will return to mediocre.

 

BABIP against and HR/FB a fair bit below his career average. I'll go with it more being luck than skill change.

[Spanky99]

BABIP against and HR/FB a fair bit below his career average. I'll go with it more being luck than skill change.

 

lol... so 200 innings of Ace doesn't do it for ya. He hasn't regressed at all, if anything looks better going forward.