General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Jimcanuck]

This is terrible logic.

 

Run scoring rate vs run prevention rate across a large sample size means quite a bit. What happened in a couple of specific games means nothing - it's just noise.

 

Yes noise but a team with offense as a strength will have a higher run differential than a team with pitching as a strength. And it would not be a surprise if the team with good pitching has the better record. A good offense will beat up on bad pitching ("good hittin'") which skews the differential. Not a linear relationship between W-L and run differential.

[Laika]

Not a linear relationship between W-L and run differential.

 

Might wanna check your sources on that, lol

[BTS]

This same argument played out in 2015 when the team was hovering around 0.500 with a great run differential.

[Jimcanuck]

Might wanna check your sources on that, lol

 

If we were only talking about individual players, you could look at wOBA or wRC+ (or their cumulative counterparts) and be done. However, research has found that run scoring based as a function of these underlying events is not completely linear and that really good offenses typically score more runs than you would expect given their standard wOBA. BaseRuns addresses this problem.

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/

 

Took less than a minute to find the backup lol

 

 

4.6 Pythagoreon Intuition

The relationship between wins and run differential isn’t perfect there are some circumstances that could some marginally different outcomes. Such as teams that when they win, win by a lot. This would cause you to have a high run differential for one game, but the win would only count as one win. If the team’s losses are closer in nature. this can have a compounding affect. And would lead to a team “beating” it’s Pythagorean winning percentage. A team that is over performing its Pythagorean could be considered lucky.

 

It is also possible for teams to under perform their Pythagorean. A team that wins many of its games by only one run would have a low run differential and a higher win percentage. Winning a large number of close games is often attributed to luck, but it could also be a factor of team strategy. A good pitching staff paired with a weaker offense could produce a result like this. We can test this theory by seeing if teams with a top tier closer are more likely to under perform their Pythagorean Win Percentage.

 

https://rstudio-pubs-static.s3.amazonaws.com/364713_31ea7e36210f40319036a083731bb2d4.html

[Laika]

If we were only talking about individual players, you could look at wOBA or wRC+ (or their cumulative counterparts) and be done. However, research has found that run scoring based as a function of these underlying events is not completely linear and that really good offenses typically score more runs than you would expect given their standard wOBA. BaseRuns addresses this problem.

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/

 

Took less than a minute to find the backup lol

 

That's a completely different point.

 

Nice try though. You googled the thing you said and found a Fangraphs article you thought said the same thing.

[Jimcanuck]

That's a completely different point.

 

Nice try though. You googled the thing you said and found a Fangraphs article you thought said the same thing.

 

Same concept. The other link I posted is specific and supports what I said.

 

By the way, no need to make a baseball discussion personal.

[Laika]

Same concept. The other link I posted is specific and supports what I said.

 

By the way, no need to make a baseball discussion personal.

 

How did I make it personal?

 

Plot team run differential vs team win loss for every team in baseball history and then tell me again that it's not a linear relationship.

 

There is a difference between being nonlinear and being imperfect but linear, btw

[InsideThePark]

I think it's possible for the makeup of the team to have some affect. A good pitching/marginal hitting team is going to win more low scoring and thus closer games while a good hitting/marginal pitching team is going to win more high scoring games that could alter their run differential more. That being said the actual impact is much smaller than one likely perceives it to be, and the 5 win difference between our record and our pythag record is more bad luck than because we're a good hitting/marginal pitching team. I would estimate about 4 of those 5 wins to luck and maybe 1 to our team makeup.

 

I would say over a 162 game season you might be able to attribute 2-3 games of over/underperformance of your pythag record to the makeup of the team. Anything beyond that(and probably the 2-3 wins itself for a lot of teams) is luck

[Jimcanuck]

How did I make it personal?

 

Plot team run differential vs team win loss for every team in baseball history and then tell me again that it's not a linear relationship.

 

There is a difference between being nonlinear and being imperfect but linear, btw

 

Generally linear but less so for teams with strong offense / weak pitching and weak offense / strong pitching. There will be a skew for such teams.

[Jimcanuck]

I think it's possible for the makeup of the team to have some affect. A good pitching/marginal hitting team is going to win more low scoring and thus closer games while a good hitting/marginal pitching team is going to win more high scoring games that could alter their run differential more. That being said the actual impact is much smaller than one likely perceives it to be, and the 5 win difference between our record and our pythag record is more bad luck than because we're a good hitting/marginal pitching team. I would estimate about 4 of those 5 wins to luck and maybe 1 to our team makeup.

 

I would say over a 162 game season you might be able to attribute 2-3 games of over/underperformance of your pythag record to the makeup of the team. Anything beyond that(and probably the 2-3 wins itself for a lot of teams) is luck

 

Reasonable. Thanks for the support.

[Laika]

Generally linear but less so for teams with strong offense / weak pitching and weak offense / strong pitching. There will be a skew for such teams.

 

Nvm

[Jimcanuck]

Prove it

 

I already posted links that refer to this effect.

[Ryu In My House]

Anthony Castro was just interviewed on SN. Seems like a good, chill guy. His English is excellent. Up there with Teo.

[InsideThePark]

Reasonable. Thanks for the support.

 

I would say I supported his end of the argument if anyone. More in the middle. He's not saying it's not there, just that it's pretty insignificant(a game or 2 worth). Read where he said "imperfect"

 

Essentially you're going to have a couple teams league wide over a full year who might be able to over/underperform by a couple games. Then another handful(lets say 8 who might be able to do it by 1 game. That's like 12 games over the course of an entire season for the entire league that had the skill(or lack of) to be better or worse than their pythag record. It's pretty insignificant.

 

edit: The graph of said relationship probably looks like a straight line with the naked eye and you'd need to magnify to see the slight curve on either end.

[connorp]

Although if there's one thing that might prevent run differential from directly translating into W-L, it's the strength of a bullpen...

 

Yeah there’s the big picture sample size where you’re attributing close games to luck… but if you broke it down to a team’s WL record in close games, say 2 runs, I’d wager BP ERA would strongly change the expected winning % of those close games

[Spanky99]

How did I make it personal?

 

His spine is made of gelatin.

[InsideThePark]

Yeah there’s the big picture sample size where you’re attributing close games to luck… but if you broke it down to a team’s WL record in close games, say 2 runs, I’d wager BP ERA would strongly change the expected winning % of those close games

 

I couldn't find anything regarding 2 run games, or looking at bullpen ERA in general, but this article has a graph relating win% in 1 run games against the combined WAR of your 3 best relievers. It's almost a flat line(no correlation).

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/22/6055447/the-effect-of-a-good-bullpen-in-one-run-games

[connorp]

His spine is made of gelatin.

 

Are we going to allow relevant lib jokes here?

[Jimcanuck]

I would say I supported his end of the argument if anyone. More in the middle. He's not saying it's not there, just that it's pretty insignificant(a game or 2 worth). Read where he said "imperfect"

 

Essentially you're going to have a couple teams league wide over a full year who might be able to over/underperform by a couple games. Then another handful(lets say 8 who might be able to do it by 1 game. That's like 12 games over the course of an entire season for the entire league that had the skill(or lack of) to be better or worse than their pythag record. It's pretty insignificant.

 

edit: The graph of said relationship probably looks like a straight line with the naked eye and you'd need to magnify to see the slight curve on either end.

 

and that's all i ever said

[Spanky99]

Are we going to allow relevant lib jokes here?

 

Shut up, ya minion. Liberal jokes? lol

[Jimcanuck]

His spine is made of gelatin.

 

I think it was TL who commented that this board is much better than it used to be. And I will continue to help keep the discussion baseball related, and push back on comments such as yours.

[Spanky99]

I think it was TL who commented that this board is much better than it used to be. And I will continue to help keep the discussion baseball related, and push back on comments such as yours.

 

*tears* It's simply a true observation as you throw the words synonymous to "attack" all the time. Punani.

[max silver]

I think Toronto is a better team than NYY and similar to Boston. +/- means little. use the Boston series as the example. Split 2-2 and plus a billion runs. So what.

 

This version of the Blue Jays have given away more games that they should have won than any team in recent memory.

I fully expect this gifting of games will continue and this will bite them in the a$$ in the end.

 

Need a new culture, need a new manager.

 

Holy overreaction Batman. Or Iceman or whatever. This team's only real weakness is the lack of reliable relievers. If/when Borucki and Merryweather come back this team should be able to fire off a ton of victories.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Holy overreaction Batman. Or Iceman or whatever. This team's only real weakness is the lack of reliable relievers. If/when Borucki and Merryweather come back this team should be able to fire off a ton of victories.

 

No kidding. This team won 60 something games two years ago. They've come a long way in a short time.

 

This has been a crazy year, so much has gone wrong in that bullpen, plus the retarded schedule and the fact that they haven't really played a home game this season or last really.

 

Yates - injured for the year, before even pitching

Merryweather - to the 60 IL almost immediately

Dolis - really slipped this year after being amazing last year

Chatwood - flashed elite, then fell apart

Borucki - tons of time on the IL

Phelps - Another 60 IL guy after showing really, really well

 

If only half of those things happen this team is probably 46-30 right now and in first place, because a few of those extra W's would have came against Tampa and Boston.

[Dick_Pole]

Instead of looking at run differential, maybe look at percentage of run scored versus total of runs scored and given up. For illustrative purposes let's say there's an extreme example of a team with s***** hitting but literally perfect pitching that wins all 162 games 1-0. Their run differential is 162. Now look at a team that scores an average of 5 runs a game and gives up 4. They will also have a 162 run differential but probably win around 95 games.

 

This has little to do with strong hitting teams beating up on bad pitching, but more to do with large numbers inviting more variability. Maybe someone already made that argument. I skimmed over a lot of long posts before adding my two cents in.

[bones10]

Was out of town for the weekend, but Grichuk f***ing sucks.

[Spanky99]

Was out of town for the weekend, but Grichuk f***ing sucks.

 

Who cares, and know he doesn't?!

[Grant77]

Vlad Jr. now has a 199 wRC+. The last player not named Barry to do that over a full season was Mark McGwire in 1998 when he hit 70 home runs. Our young slugger wasn't even born yet when that happened.

[Spanky99]

Vlad Jr. now has a 199 wRC+. The last player not named Barry to do that over a full season was Mark McGwire in 1998 when he hit 70 home runs. Our young slugger wasn't even born yet when that happened.

 

It's actually 200, just saying...

[Eat My Shatkins]

lol Tommy Milone pitched for the Bisons today. Of course...

 

Of all the pitchers on the goddamn IL that you can't wait to get back, of course he's the first one to come back.