Around Baseball 2021

[TheHurl]

Where are you getting that? He's been consistently awful at 2B and ranks 29th out of 35 second basemen that have played 1000 innings since 2018 (-6.1 UZR/150). Maybe he won't regress on the basepaths, but he's decidedly average in that regard to begin with.

 

I think I'd rather have a guy like Santiago Espinal, who is a better defender and baserunner. It's not like Hernandez has even an average bat to make up for it.

 

2nd among 2B in defensive runs saved, 6th in outs above average.

[Abomination]

 

Mark Feinsand

@Feinsand

 

Sources tell me and @adamdberry there are indications that Jameson Taillon will be the next Pirates player to be traded -- possibly in the next day or two. The Pirates have already dealt Joe Musgrove this offseason, so it would not be a surprise if Taillon is moved, too.

 

I could definitely see a Taillon trade being where we would have sent one of our outfielders if we had landed Brantley.

[max silver]

I could definitely see a Taillon trade being where we would have sent one of our outfielders if we had landed Brantley.

 

Success rates for single Tommy John surgeries are pretty decent, but I'd be wary of trading long term assets for a player who's undergone a second Tommy John procedure. This has apparently been studied, and the results aren't great.

 

Researchers looked at 33 major league pitchers who had surgery twice to reconstruct a torn ulnar collateral ligament in their throwing arm -- a procedure widely referred to as "Tommy John" surgery because he's the first pitcher who had the surgery.

 

After the second UCL reconstruction, 65 percent of the pitchers returned to pitching at a major league level. They averaged three years or less at the major league level after the second procedure. The number of innings they pitched decreased by nearly half, according to the study. The number of pitches resulting in walks rose from 4.02 to 4.79 for every nine innings, and their wins and losses dropped in half following the second surgery.

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=187606

[Pendleton]

I could definitely see a Taillon trade being where we would have sent one of our outfielders if we had landed Brantley.

 

They can't be happy with their depth behind the plate, might be something there

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Success rates for single Tommy John surgeries are pretty decent, but I'd be wary of trading long term assets for a player who's undergone a second Tommy John procedure. This has apparently been studied, and the results aren't great.

 

 

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=187606

 

Considering most of those pitchers who had two TJS may be due to the fact they tend to be longer in the tooth than others who had just one. But yes, huge caution needs to be applied here as with any pitcher.

[Pendleton]

Considering most of those pitchers who had two TJS may be due to the fact they tend to be longer in the tooth than others who had just one. But yes, huge caution needs to be applied here as with any pitcher.

 

In the interest of fairness, we could include McGuire in the deal, as the evidence suggests he's also seen heavy strain on his elbow as well.

[G-Snarls]

Glad Kike Hernandez isn't a Jay. My biggest problem with Kike is trying not to say "do you love me" every time I would say it.

[Laika]

The stupid Canadian in me wants Taillon or Paxton in Toronto, even though I know there are better/smarter moves out there.

[Jays24]

The stupid Canadian in me wants Taillon or Paxton in Toronto, even though I know there are better/smarter moves out there.

 

I think the majority would pick Paxton (after Bauer) of any pitcher left on the free agent market. He might have the highest upside.

[Dr. Dinger]

Glad Kike Hernandez isn't a Jay. My biggest problem with Kike is trying not to say "do you love me" every time I would say it.

 

My biggest problem is that with the squiggly accent, his name is a deeply offensive slur.

[Laika]

I think the majority would pick Paxton (after Bauer) of any pitcher left on the free agent market. He might have the highest upside.

 

I'm not that optimistic about Paxton. Velo was way down last year and he threw for teams earlier this offseason without much hype. Back surgery (discectomy) and forearm strain in 2020. Real good chance he's just a waste of money

[Pendleton]

I'm not that optimistic about Paxton. Velo was way down last year and he threw for teams earlier this offseason without much hype. Back surgery (discectomy) and forearm strain in 2020. Real good chance he's just a waste of money

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/latest-on-james-paxton.html

 

The report of him hitting 94 this off season starts to sound a bit encouraging, but being able to touch 94 in an off season workout is obviously not the same being able to maintain it throughout starts for a season and beyond with that injury record.

 

Paxton and Tanaka are the same age and their projections are similar enough to assume that interest should come down to which guy you think stays healthy enough to perform to expectations.

[Abomination]

I wouldn't mind taking a shot on Rodon. The velocity still seems to be there. Even Porcello could be somewhat interesting.

[Laika]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/latest-on-james-paxton.html

 

The report of him hitting 94 this off season starts to sound a bit encouraging, but being able to touch 94 in an off season workout is obviously not the same being able to maintain it throughout starts for a season and beyond with that injury record.

 

Paxton and Tanaka are the same age and their projections are similar enough to assume that interest should come down to which guy you think stays healthy enough to perform to expectations.

 

And that for me is Tanaka. Tanaka seems like a throw back, pitch through the pain guy. Either that or just a uniquely durable SP. It's remarkable what he's done since his partial UCL tear. Paxton has a higher ceiling but Tanaka has a way higher chance of contributing and performing at his mean talent level.

[saskjayfan]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/latest-on-james-paxton.html

 

The report of him hitting 94 this off season starts to sound a bit encouraging, but being able to touch 94 in an off season workout is obviously not the same being able to maintain it throughout starts for a season and beyond with that injury record.

 

Paxton and Tanaka are the same age and their projections are similar enough to assume that interest should come down to which guy you think stays healthy enough to perform to expectations.

 

Pitchers aren't suppose to be ramped up to max velocity at this time of the off season. Paxton hitting 94 is very encouraging. He might have been pushing a bit more considering he's auditioning for a job, but if he's hitting 94 now he's got more in the tank come April. The Micro discectomy generally has very positive outcomes. A forearm strain is never a good thing, but Paxton had a grade 1 strain, the mildest form. It's wasn't surprising to see pitchers injuries when summer camp didn't give pitchers the necessary time to ramp up. Paxton is the ultimate risk reward guy.

[saskjayfan]

Success rates for single Tommy John surgeries are pretty decent, but I'd be wary of trading long term assets for a player who's undergone a second Tommy John procedure. This has apparently been studied, and the results aren't great.

 

 

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=187606

 

oddly enough we had Jason Frasor who had 2 tommy Johns before he ever got to the majors and he pitched relatively healthy his entire career until the age of 37 without issues. I find Taillon an intriguing option.

[Pendleton]

Pitchers aren't suppose to be ramped up to max velocity at this time of the off season. Paxton hitting 94 is very encouraging. He might have been pushing a bit more considering he's auditioning for a job, but if he's hitting 94 now he's got more in the tank come April. The Micro discectomy generally has very positive outcomes. A forearm strain is never a good thing, but Paxton had a grade 1 strain, the mildest form. It's wasn't surprising to see pitchers injuries when summer camp didn't give pitchers the necessary time to ramp up. Paxton is the ultimate risk reward guy.

 

It's too vague to read too much into in my opinion. If he touched 94 but was still only sitting low 90s, that would mean his velocity is still down from pre 2020 level. Then you're left hoping he completely rebounds throughout the spring, rather than actually getting to see him there before taking the chance on signing him.

[saskjayfan]

It's too vague to read too much into in my opinion. If he touched 94 but was still only sitting low 90s, that would mean his velocity is still down from pre 2020 level. Then you're left hoping he completely rebounds throughout the spring, rather than actually getting to see him there before taking the chance on signing him.

 

You're missing the point. Yates was talking on MLB radio about throwing at this time in the off season. It's unreasonable to expect a healthy pitcher to be throwing anywhere close to max velocity in early January. If a pitcher was sitting 88 in early January he'd probably hit low 90s by opening day. For Paxton to be sitting low 90s in January, he's probably mid 90s by opening day.

[Pendleton]

You're missing the point. Yates was talking on MLB radio about throwing at this time in the off season. It's unreasonable to expect a healthy pitcher to be throwing anywhere close to max velocity in early January. If a pitcher was sitting 88 in early January he'd probably hit low 90s by opening day. For Paxton to be sitting low 90s in January, he's probably mid 90s by opening day.

 

No I completely understand your point and I'm not saying it isn't a valid one. It's a bit encouraging to see he's touching 94 in the off season, but until a team actually gets to see him back to pre injury form, there's still reason to be concerned whether he has lingering issues. If it was a regular off season for him there would be little doubt the velocity returns over the spring. If he has been ramping himself up to showcase for a contract and still only sitting in the low 90s, maybe there's still something there. Like MikeM alluded to, the concern about the velocity returning isn't so much about performance as durability.

[saskjayfan]

No I completely understand your point and I'm not saying it isn't a valid one. It's a bit encouraging to see he's touching 94 in the off season, but until a team actually gets to see him back to pre injury form, there's still reason to be concerned whether he has lingering issues. If it was a regular off season for him there would be little doubt the velocity returns over the spring. If he has been ramping himself up to showcase for a contract and still only sitting in the low 90s, maybe there's still something there. Like MikeM alluded to, the concern about the velocity returning isn't so much about performance as durability.

 

Fair enough. No team is going to see the extended ramp up to get a further evaluation on what he really is. A team will sign him before it ever gets to that point. That team will either go down in flames with him or reap the spoils of success. It depends on your willingness to assume the risk and whether your team can undertake that risk reward scenario. We'll see where Shatkins goes with this one.

[Laika]

Fair enough. No team is going to see the extended ramp up to get a further evaluation on what he really is. A team will sign him before it ever gets to that point. That team will either go down in flames with him or reap the spoils of success. It depends on your willingness to assume the risk and whether your team can undertake that risk reward scenario. We'll see where Shatkins goes with this one.

 

We also don't know anything other than touched 94. That could mean sat 90 and hit 94 a few times, or sat 88 and hit 94 exactly once while airing it out.

 

I think Toronto is not in a position where they need to or should go all or nothing on a SP. They are a strong team. They need bankable SP production to help try to win the division. A fringe team would benefit more from a huge risk reward pitcher like Pax, I think. What are the odds even that Paxton is very good and healthy during the playoffs? Not amazing.

[Grant77]

2nd among 2B in defensive runs saved, 6th in outs above average.

 

It's unusual for one metric to show an above average 2B and another to show them as one of the worst defenders in the league. I find that UZR is generally more in line with the eye test, but we'll get to see a lot of him this year so it will be interesting.

[Spanky__99]

Seeing as the Yankees are in the driver seat of acquiring Taillon... who do they give up? I'll chuck out a random guess... Osiel Rodriguez and Antonio Gomez.

 

ETA: Jays, likely would have to give up Rikelvin and Robberse?

 

Pirates are looking for high ceiling guys no matter how far away they are, is why I selected these young guys.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Spanky99

[dineke]

Seeing as the Yankees are in the driver seat of acquiring Taillon... who do they give up? I'll chuck out a random guess... Osiel Rodriguez and Antonio Gomez.

 

ETA: Jays, likely would have to give up Rikelvin and Robberse?

 

Some mod on Reddit wanted to give up Kirk and made it seem like a no brainer. I'm not an expert on baseball trade values but that seems terrible on our end lol.

[Spanky__99]

Some mod on Reddit wanted to give up Kirk and made it seem like a no brainer. I'm not an expert on baseball trade values but that seems terrible on our end lol.

 

Yeah, that's egregious. Jays wouldn't part with Kirk for a healthy Musgrove, Taillon can't have much more risk appointed to him, the reward could be a pot of gold here. I'm not sure if my guesses are too much or not enough, lol.

[Laika]

Seeing as the Yankees are in the driver seat of acquiring Taillon... who do they give up? I'll chuck out a random guess... Osiel Rodriguez and Antonio Gomez.

 

ETA: Jays, likely would have to give up Rikelvin and Robberse?

 

Pirates are looking for high ceiling guys no matter how far away they are, is why I selected these young guys.

 

Moreno would be the ask and should be more than enough on paper.

[Spanky__99]

Moreno would be the ask and should be more than enough on paper.

 

I thought of that as a straight up, trade. Would you do it?

[saskjayfan]

Yeah, that's egregious. Jays wouldn't part with Kirk for a healthy Musgrove, Taillon can't have much more risk appointed to him, the reward could be a pot of gold here. I'm not sure if my guesses are too much or not enough, lol.

 

Why not take the gamble if it's only costing you a lottery ticket prospect Taillon is only making just over 2 mil. If he sucks you can just DFA him. I actually hope we get him. His add wouldn't prevent me from getting more starters. The dodgers have Gonsolin as their 6th and they are still being tied to Bauer. You can never have too much starting pitching!

[max silver]

Moreno would be the ask and should be more than enough on paper.

 

From listening to interviews with the front office they sound like they are very high on Moreno, but with the glut of catchers on the 40 man roster one of them likely needs to be moved out this offseason. Adams and McGuire are the most expendable of the bunch, but neither of these guys likely has much in the way of trade value.

[Spanky__99]

Why not take the gamble if it's only costing you a lottery ticket prospect Taillon is only making just over 2 mil. If he sucks you can just DFA him. I actually hope we get him. His add wouldn't prevent me from getting more starters. The dodgers have Gonsolin as their 6th and they are still being tied to Bauer. You can never have too much starting pitching!

 

I didn't say not too, and that salary is exactly why I said he could be worth a pot of gold. You're not suggesting Kirk as a lottery ticket are you?