Blue Jays Historical Discussion and Debate

[Olerud363]

I didn't see a thread for this and it seems some of it has leaked into the other threads, and some people are starting a new thread for every historical discussion.

 

Possible Topics

 

1. Was Roberto Alomar over-rated defensively?

2. Why did John Olerud only get 500+ at bats once with the Jays?

3. Why did Carlos Delgado get send down in 1994 and not up full time until 1996?

4. Why did Vernon Wells not play much in 2000 and 2001 ?

5. Why did Jose Cruz get sent down in 98 and 99 ?

6. Why was Greg Myers so good in 2003?

7. Why did Jesse Barfield fall apart after 87? Or did he fall apart? Maybe they just didn't realize he was still good even without 40 homers.

 

Question 5 is as interesting if not more so than 3 or 4...

 

Jose Cruz had numbers in 98 and 99 that could be confused with Cavan Biggios. The Blue Jays of 1994 to 2001 were not a progressive organization and had no idea who was good, even though they still were producing good players. They also had no idea John Olerud was good even in the years he didn't hit .350.

 

The Jays of 83 to 2001 sometimes did a terrible job recognizing their own talent.. though they had a lot and no place for them all to play. Sometimes they did stupid things that those of us of an older age still aren't over.

[Carlos Danger]

Answer to #1 - NO. Not a multiple choice answer.. Hard NO!

[The Iceman]

2. Why did John Olerud only get 500+ at bats once with the Jays?

 

2.B Why did Olerud play over 138 games only once as a Jay

[Jimcanuck]

2. Why did John Olerud only get 500+ at bats once with the Jays?

 

2.B Why did Olerud play over 138 games only once as a Jay

 

Didn't pull the ball enough. Not enough of a run producer for a 1B.

[Spanky99]

I like this thread. I have a question. How did Toronto go from 86 wins in 2003 to 67 wins in 2004? I was 9 or 10 years old so I wasn’t smart enough to know why that happened back then. I’m still not smart enough to figure it out so if someone could let me know, that would be great!

 

JP Ricciardi... Seriously though, most of it was Doc. He was injured in '04 missed half a season and in 03' he was ridiculous. Surrounded by not much else other than Delgado who was traded in '04. "Play For Yourself!"

Edited January 4, 2021 by Spanky99

[connorp]

I also don’t clearly recall the 95 to 55 win drop off from 93 to 94. Did they know coming into the year it was over?

[Spanky99]

I also don’t clearly recall the 95 to 55 win drop off from 93 to 94. Did they know coming into the year it was over?

 

lol... it was the strike ya dingleberry!

[connorp]

lol... it was the strike ya dingleberry!

 

Yeah I wasn’t thinking about that.

[jayscurveone]

I also don’t clearly recall the 95 to 55 win drop off from 93 to 94. Did they know coming into the year it was over?

 

The strike was a huge part of that since they played way fewer games and had less chance to win as many games. Other than that I don't know.

[jayscurveone]

I like this thread. I have a question. How did Toronto go from 86 wins in 2003 to 67 wins in 2004? I was 9 or 10 years old so I wasn’t smart enough to know why that happened back then. I’m still not smart enough to figure it out so if someone could let me know, that would be great!

 

Roy Halladay was often either pitching hurt or on the disabled list in 2004. He made 21 starts in 2004 vs 36 in 2003. 4.20 era in 2004 vs 3.25 in 2003. Delgado missed one game in 2003 (1.019 ops) vs missing 34 in 2004 (.907 ops). Vernon Wells missed time and posted a .809 ops in 2004 vs .909 ops in 2003. Add that Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson didn't do as well in 2004 as they did in 2003.

[G-Snarls]

The strike was a huge part of that since they played way fewer games and had less chance to win as many games. Other than that I don't know.

 

I was full on cheering for the Expos by June, I remember that

 

The Yankees seemed unstoppable in the AL that year. Even though it didn't look like one of their best rosters. Wanted the see the Spos beat them in the WS.

Edited January 6, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Hipfan]

I also don’t clearly recall the 95 to 55 win drop off from 93 to 94. Did they know coming into the year it was over?

 

Fans tend to forget the Jays didn’t play well for much of 93 either. It was a late season push that got them back to the playoffs. Perhaps something similar would have happened if not for the strike.

[connorp]

lol... it was the strike ya dingleberry!

 

They still only won 50+ games the next season too. So point still stands it was the end of an era and don’t really remember how it all went down. That’s all I was saying

[Spanky99]

They still only won 50+ games the next season too. So point still stands it was the end of an era and don’t really remember how it all went down. That’s all I was saying

 

Just look at the rosters from '94 and '95 and see how they fared, '95 was the end of that era, the answer lies within.

[jayscurveone]

They still only won 50+ games the next season too. So point still stands it was the end of an era and don’t really remember how it all went down. That’s all I was saying

 

1995 was also a shortened season.

[Dick_Pole]

Going completely by memory, the difference between 1993 and 1994 was the end of the dominant bullpen and the start of the implosion of Juan Guzman except for that one good year before they traded him.

[Dick_Pole]

Guzman's good year was in 1996. People talk about 1998 a lot, but 1996 was really a lost season. Cy Young pitcher and ERA leader. Then they added Clemens to that in the next season. Couldn't quite put it all together over the next couple of years.

[Olerud363]

Going completely by memory, the difference between 1993 and 1994 was the end of the dominant bullpen and the start of the implosion of Juan Guzman except for that one good year before they traded him.

 

What was amazing was that the 1995 team was so bad despite, Olerud, Alomar, Molitor, White, Cone, Hentgen, Guzman, Delgado, Green, Leiter. All would have great seasons ahead, just many of them not for the Jays. Alomar and Olerud were 27 and 26 in 95, Delgado 23, Green 22, too bad they couldn't get those 4 rolling at the same time.

[Olerud363]

Jesse Barfield. Wow.

 

According to fangraphs Per game better then Andre Dawson, Pucket, Mattingly. Well, if you believe the defense.

 

Barfield and Olerud are two guys who would of been better appreciated in the Fangraphs era. Kind of similar in a way, Barfield won the homerun title in 86, Olerud the batting title in 93. Both took a while to get 150 games and amazingly struggled to keep that status at times.

 

Both could rock the league with near MVP seasons, but their 4 WAR seasons didn't look good to the stats keepers at the time.

 

Both were in the shadow of RBI guys (Bell and Carter) that people thought were better, but weren't.

 

Both traded to NY for a struggling pitcher with a good arm.

[Laika]

Jesse Barfield. Wow.

 

According to fangraphs Per game better then Andre Dawson, Pucket, Mattingly. Well, if you believe the defense.

 

Barfield and Olerud are two guys who would of been better appreciated in the Fangraphs era. Kind of similar in a way, Barfield won the homerun title in 86, Olerud the batting title in 93. Both took a while to get 150 games and amazingly struggled to keep that status at times.

 

Both could rock the league with near MVP seasons, but their 4 WAR seasons didn't look good to the stats keepers at the time.

 

Both were in the shadow of RBI guys (Bell and Carter) that people thought were better, but weren't.

 

Both traded to NY for a struggling pitcher with a good arm.

 

Barfield had the talent to be a Hall of Famer, with better luck and aging.

 

He was so bad in 1992 that his career swiftly ended. Wikipedia will tell you that he sucked in 1993 in Japan because he only hit .215, but he hit .215/.357/.477 which we would recognize now as a solid enough line. That was 15th out of 68 qualified hitters in the JPCL that year. Makes you wonder if he still had enough juice left to be a platoon OF in MLB.

 

His OPS that year in the JPCL was better than a 19 year old Hideki Matsui and a 25 year old Matt Stairs! I don't know how Stairs ended up in Japan that year but it seems like the Expos sold his rights to Chunichi Dragons and then later sold him to the Red Sox.

 

Stairs would play 1895 MLB games, 467 more than Jesse Barfield (1428 games). In that many less games Barfield's career WAR of 39 is almost 27 full wins higher than Stairs'.

 

There's a different cosmos where Barfield has one more elite season in his 20s and then plays a productive but average corner outfield until his late 30s, adding WAR and counting stats, and then he ends up in Cooperstown by a hair.

[Olerud363]

For the history buffs... Springer will play as a 31 year old next year. 31-36 over his contract.

 

Joe Carter started his Jays career as a 31 year old and made the Beeston level of excellence.

Jose Bautista did all-right enough as a 31-36 year old but year 36 was rough

Come to think of it Carter's year 36 was rough too.

Edwin had a good 31-36

[TheHurl]

Jesse Barfield. Wow.

 

According to fangraphs Per game better then Andre Dawson, Pucket, Mattingly. Well, if you believe the defense.

 

Barfield and Olerud are two guys who would of been better appreciated in the Fangraphs era. Kind of similar in a way, Barfield won the homerun title in 86, Olerud the batting title in 93. Both took a while to get 150 games and amazingly struggled to keep that status at times.

 

Both could rock the league with near MVP seasons, but their 4 WAR seasons didn't look good to the stats keepers at the time.

 

Both were in the shadow of RBI guys (Bell and Carter) that people thought were better, but weren't.

 

Both traded to NY for a struggling pitcher with a good arm.

 

Jays numbers in September were awful that year:

 

Moseby .149/.186/.213 (for a guy that had been one of the most consistent hitters in ball for 4 years)

Bell .246/.258/.415

Fernandez .289/.298/.367

Barfield .226/.288/.512

Upshaw .242/.327/.347

Mullinicks .246/.306/.316

 

As a team they were .234/.277/.359 after being .280/.344/.440 up to that point. An insane 468 runs with 362 runs against in June, July and August.

[Olerud363]

Jays numbers in September were awful that year:

 

Moseby .149/.186/.213 (for a guy that had been one of the most consistent hitters in ball for 4 years)

Bell .246/.258/.415

Fernandez .289/.298/.367

Barfield .226/.288/.512

Upshaw .242/.327/.347

Mullinicks .246/.306/.316

 

As a team they were .234/.277/.359 after being .280/.344/.440 up to that point. An insane 468 runs with 362 runs against in June, July and August.

 

I never knew that they were close in '86. Looks like they 3.5 out and in second place on August 31st of that year.

[Olerud363]

Moseby or Vernon Wells?

 

Wow. They are way closer than I thought on Fangraphs. 1390ish games each 24.7ish WAR each.

 

I thought Moseby would be ahead because of his walks and playing in a less hitter friendly era.

 

Weird thing is Wells is kind of dinged for his defense despite winning 3 gold gloves. Wells best season (at least from what I remember) 2003, is only 4 WAR because of horrible defense (at least according to fangraphs).

[Olerud363]

Which team was better? 2006 Blue Jays or 2008 Blue Jays?

 

Interesting question. After checking out bbref

 

a) 2008 team had a 93 win run differential.

2006 team had 86 win run differential but were missing 100 runs

 

The 2006 team had a .280 .350 .460 rate stats that should of led to almost 900 runs, their rate stats were better than the 93, 99, 03 or 2015 teams, but all those teams scored 80-90 runs more.

 

What happened?? I guess either terrible base running, or terrible hitting with runners on (probably luck).

 

So I think the 2006 was better. Wells (best season), Glauss prime season, Overbay best season, Rios was on fire (until staph infection), Hinske was repeating rookie year, Reed Johnson was hitting good, Aaron Hill as well, Frank Cat was fun, Molina/Zaun was a great catching combo

 

Should of been a 900 run team according to rate stats but fluked to 800 somehow.

[Spanky99]

Here's a decent read on Tony, can't believe its only been a year...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-it-means-to-remember-tony-fernandez/

[Olerud363]

Here's a decent read on Tony, can't believe its only been a year...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-it-means-to-remember-tony-fernandez/

 

I saw this discussion on another thread but can't find it. Best 3 year run for a Blue Jay position player (I think the discussion focused on offense only, but here defense and offense).

 

Candidates (I eye-balled the numbers, I think they are right but could of messed up slightly)

 

Donaldson 2015-2017 21 fWAR

Bautista 2010-2012 17.7 fWAR

Delgado 1998-2000 16.7 fWAR

Alomar 91-93 16.1 fWAR

White 91-93 17.7 fWAR

McGriff 88-90 18.5 fWAR

Barfield 85-87 18.8 fWAR

 

Donaldson is probably first, great offense and good defense. Who is second?

 

Kind of get into how much you trust the defense numbers. For example White beats Alomar because White's defense those years rates as historic and Alomar's less then expected. McGriff beats Delgado despite much worse rate stats because of era + defense. Same with Barfield over Bautista (though Bautista missed 60+ games in 2012).