AL Wild Card Round: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

[BTS]

As someone else, there should be middle ground between sabr and old school. A pitcher “having it” or “not having it” one day is a real thing even if you can’t put it in a stat

 

I think one of the biggest developments in baseball recently is managers getting away from this mentality and proactively removing their shitbags before the damage is done instead of after. The difference between seeing a mediocre arm a second or 3rd time and a fresh arm for the first time is really big.

[dineke]

If you’re in the NBA and you a s***** player that’s having a really great shooting night, so you sub him out for another s***** player. Obviously not a perfect analogy but as general point

 

More often than not that s***** player gets cold as opposed to staying hot.

[connorp]

I think one of the biggest developments in baseball recently is managers getting away from this mentality and proactively removing their shitbags before the damage is done instead of after. The difference between seeing a mediocre arm a second or 3rd time and a fresh arm for the first time is really big.

 

Again, not saying it’s all or nothing. I wouldn’t have cried if they pulled Shoe is he starts the inning with a bad walk

[Grant77]

I've rarely seen BTS say so many stupid things in succession. He must be hitting the sauce.

[TheHurl]

I've rarely seen BTS say so many stupid things in succession. He must be hitting the sauce.

 

If stupid statements only came out when drunk Grant would be Spank

[TheHurl]

Again, not saying it’s all or nothing. I wouldn’t have cried if they pulled Shoe is he starts the inning with a bad walk

 

I have talked about this with a few people tonight...pitchers that have traditionally started like to start an inning. There are stats which back this up. i thought this is why you have mental conditioning teams. I didn't listen to the post game interview but I bet Charlie mentions this

[The Iceman]

Can we move Randall Grishit WAY out of the 3 hole

 

take his 2 week hot streak out and he is hitting .175

[BTS]

Again, not saying it’s all or nothing. I wouldn’t have cried if they pulled Shoe is he starts the inning with a bad walk

 

What if you knew Robbie Ray was a lot more comfortable with nobody on base?

[saskjayfan]

It really was. People are acting like Shoemaker is more than a depth starter. They got three shutout innings from him, and its completely defensible to go different arms before he gives up runs instead of waiting until the damage is done.

 

Bad starters have good outings. Shoe career fip is better than league average and he's dealt with a lot of injuries. Buehrle said you have 6 starts where everything is working, 6 where you have nothing and a bunch that somewhere in between.

 

Shoe hadn't given up a walk or a lot of hard contact either. Players don't have the same game every time out. I'm not sure if you've every played sports in your life. All you look at is the numbers. You compared Rowdy Tellez to Jabari Blash because you were stuck on AAA numbers from 3 years ago.

 

We pulled Robbie Ray who was pitching well to bring in a guy with a career FIP close to 5 in one run game. Where was the logic in that move.

[Jimcanuck]

At the very least, leave Shoe in for the righty Arozarena and bring in Ray for the lefty Lowe.

 

We had a replacement level pitcher throw a no-hitter a few weeks ago. When a pitcher is on, and Shoe was on, IMO he stays in the game until the first sign of a struggle.

[saskjayfan]

Can we move Randall Grishit WAY out of the 3 hole

 

take his 2 week hot streak out and he is hitting .175

 

Gurriel has been our best hitter by a mile the last month. He should be in the 3 hole or the 2 hole really.

[BTS]

Bad starters have good outings. Shoe career fip is better than league average and he's dealt with a lot of injuries. Buehrle said you have 6 starts where everything is working, 6 where you have nothing and a bunch that somewhere in between.

 

Shoe hadn't given up a walk or a lot of hard contact either. Players don't have the same game every time out. I'm not sure if you've every played sports in your life. All you look at is the numbers. You compared Rowdy Tellez to Jabari Blash because you were stuck on AAA numbers from 3 years ago.

 

We pulled Robbie Ray who was pitching well to bring in a guy with a career FIP close to 5 in one run game. Where was the logic in that move.

 

I actually watch entirely too much baseball, rather than too little.

 

And you're about 18 months early on the Rowdy Tellez victory lap.

[bones10]

I'm honestly dumbfounded that you guys are bitching about pulling shoemaker STILL, that was the plan from the start and it literally worked, bats didnt get around on some elite pitching from the rays with a little bit of bad luck. Still have Ryu tomorrow with Bass Dolis, Pearson all available.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm honestly dumbfounded that you guys are bitching about pulling shoemaker STILL, that was the plan from the start and it literally worked, bats didnt get around on some elite pitching from the rays with a little bit of bad luck. Still have Ryu tomorrow with Bass Dolis, Pearson all available.

 

Both sides have good points, no?

[BTS]

Both sides have good points, no?

 

Yes, it's not a black and white issue. I actually would have just left Shoemaker in based on the information I had available to me. My biggest issue is with people calling the decision to pull him stupid - there is undoubtedly valid data informing the decision to let Ray start the 4th fresh.

[bones10]

Both sides have good points, no?

 

One side is literal caveman 'muh gut feeling' traditionalist type and the other is looking at objective numbers and noticing a trends and trying to give this 8th seeded massive underdog team their best chance to win, and it worked.

 

So no.

[Jimcanuck]

Yes, it's not a black and white issue. I actually would have just left Shoemaker in based on the information I had available to me. My biggest issue is with people calling the decision to pull him stupid - there is undoubtedly valid data informing the decision to let Ray start the 4th fresh.

 

Yes there is data based on past events. Maybe they gave high weight to the data, and little weight to how Shoe had pitched in the game. Whatever balance they struck, I think it leaned too far on the past data bit.

[Jimcanuck]

One side is literal caveman 'muh gut feeling' traditionalist type and the other is looking at objective numbers and noticing a trends and trying to give this 8th seeded massive underdog team their best chance to win, and it worked.

 

So no.

 

No, its not a black and white issue as you put it. It's how you balance out in-game data / performance vs. analytics.

[Jaysareus]

Forget the arguing Tampa is winning this series probably in three games maybe two

[saskjayfan]

I actually watch entirely too much baseball, rather than too little.

 

And you're about 18 months early on the Rowdy Tellez victory lap.

 

You keep the faith. Rowdy is likely a below average hitter like you projected. Keep watching that box score hoping for bad days for old Rowdy.

[Spanky99]

Getem tomorrow Birds!

[BTS]

You keep the faith. Rowdy is likely a below average hitter like you projected. Keep watching that box score hoping for bad days for old Rowdy.

 

You are an insane person.

[Spanky99]

Hi guys!

[connorp]

No, its not a black and white issue as you put it. It's how you balance out in-game data / performance vs. analytics.

 

Exactly. It’s just an arrogance that anything other than analytics equates to “I have a gut feeling this guy is going to hit a HR today” based on nothing... you see at all levels of baseball how pitchers can have a different feel from one day to the next.. I’m sure people have watched much more baseball than me but I can think of many playoff games I watched where a SP is out there with the understanding they’re getting pulled first sniff of trouble..again, you’re turning the ball over to a guy that was one of worst SP in baseball. Yeah he did great after the hiccups to start but point is it’s not Snell turning the ball over to studs

 

But Jays actually got lucky that Ray was dealing too. But take him out for “fresh arm” and analytics and bring in mediocre pitcher that blows the game

Edited September 30, 2020 by connorp

[connorp]

I’m done ranting. Time for Trump v Biden

[King]

I f***ing hate the green light 3-0.

 

Lol wut

[Dokken]

Rays shortstop is the MVP of this game

 

yep, defense coming up huge on those two snags with a runner at 2nd both times. In, contrast, the run that scored on the WP was off Jansen's glove so could have been blocked and then the way the inning went after that, the runner would have been stranded at 3rd. Not saying it's Jansen's fault but elite catchers (Molina, Pudge Rodriguez) usually stop that ball. So those 3 plays go the other way, and Jays could have won 3-2. Then again a good throw would have nailed Tellez on the Sac Fly play.

[saskjayfan]

yep, defense coming up huge on those two snags with a runner at 2nd both times. In, contrast, the run that scored on the WP was off Jansen's glove so could have been blocked and then the way the inning went after that, the runner would have been stranded at 3rd. Not saying it's Jansen's fault but elite catchers (Molina, Pudge Rodriguez) usually stop that ball. So those 3 plays go the other way, and Jays could have won 3-2. Then again a good throw would have nailed Tellez on the Sac Fly play.

 

You make a good point on Tellez. There was absolutely no reason to not pinch run Davis for Tellez when he got on first and if we would have done that Davis likely would have scored on the Biggio double and probably would have scored on the sac fly even with a good throw.

[saskjayfan]

On to game 2. Since we're planning out the scripts prior to games. In an ideal world it's Ryu for 6, Pearson for 2 and Dolis for 1. Let's have a tad bit of flexibility. If Ryu is dealing and he's through 6 give him the 7th. If Ryu isn't on, it probably isn't going to matter. I'd start Rowdy at DH, first if they think he can handle it physically. Bring in Kirk once Ryu gets lifted. Let's go Jays!

[Deadpool]

Lol wut

 

I don't think batters should be allowed to swing 3-0, I think it leads to negative outcomes far more often than positive ones (simply because most things for MLB hitters lead to negative outcomes, if they didn't, a .300 batting average wouldn't be considered "good".)