2020 Trade Deadline Thread

[Slade]

 

 

I would do Gurriel + for Clevinger but not Groshans.

[Krylian]

[BlueRocky]

It will be tough to outbid the Padres without including a top prospect.

 

Braves were asked for Drew Waters and pulled out. Padres and Jays are still in, which says something about their offers.

[saskjayfan]

I still circle back to Lynn. Take your pick of Manoah, SWR or Groshans. I'd give up any one of those guys plus a lower level prospect for Lynn.

[Brownie19]

You’re ignoring the giant body of work over a 29 game sample with a new club. He’s most likely not a good as 2019, but not as bad as 2020.

 

I agree. The thing is the price to get him for a 1 month rental is probably really low. There's obviously a chance he doesn't turn it around and continues to play like has in Miami this year (which isn't very good). However - put him on a playoff contender and there's a chance to reverts back (or closer to) the player he was in 2019 when he was a massive difference maker.

 

It's all in where you think those probabilities lie. If you're giving up someone our Top 20 and Top 30 prospects....then even if the probability of him reverting back (or closer to) the player he was in 2019 is only 25% - it's worth the risk.

 

There won't be many players we can add for lower level prospects who have the ability to be 2 to 4 WAR players. Villar has been a 2 to 4 WAR player in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

 

That all said - his sprint speed seems to be down a significant amount this year. Not sure if he's been hurt or just hates Miami. He's hitting that age where the speed probably declines. Likely not someone we want to invest in past this year (unless it's short term and cheap).

[Grant77]

In a hypothetical scenario where we trade Gurriel, should we grab another outfielder? Villar and Goodwin have been mentioned, with Bradley Jr and Pillar also available.

[Pendleton]

 

I was quite fond of the idea of the major upgrade to our INF defense, but if the price was too steep for a rental so be it.

[Brownie19]

I still circle back to Lynn. Take your pick of Manoah, SWR or Groshans. I'd give up any one of those guys plus a lower level prospect for Lynn.

 

I'm not sure we should have to give up a Top 30-50 prospect like Groshans to get Lynn for 2020 + 2021. Manoah yes. I'm OK with that.

[BlueRocky]

Lynn is not in the picture and no way I’m sending Groshans back to Texas.

 

If Jays miss out on Clevinger, they’re going after Mike Minor for a lesser prospect.

[Grant77]

I still circle back to Lynn. Take your pick of Manoah, SWR or Groshans. I'd give up any one of those guys plus a lower level prospect for Lynn.

 

Hard pass for me at that price. I'd rather grab Minor on the cheap.

[RustyTrombone]

I agree. The thing is the price to get him for a 1 month rental is probably really low. There's obviously a chance he doesn't turn it around and continues to play like has in Miami this year (which isn't very good). However - put him on a playoff contender and there's a chance to reverts back (or closer to) the player he was in 2019 when he was a massive difference maker.

 

It's all in where you think those probabilities lie. If you're giving up someone our Top 20 and Top 30 prospects....then even if the probability of him reverting back (or closer to) the player he was in 2019 is only 25% - it's worth the risk.

 

There won't be many players we can add for lower level prospects who have the ability to be 2 to 4 WAR players. Villar has been a 2 to 4 WAR player in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

 

That all said - his sprint speed seems to be down a significant amount this year. Not sure if he's been hurt or just hates Miami. He's hitting that age where the speed probably declines. Likely not someone we want to invest in past this year (unless it's short term and cheap).

 

Hasnt been just his sprint speed. hes near bottom of the barrel in just about every statcast reading.

[Brownie19]

Hasnt been just his sprint speed. hes near bottom of the barrel in just about every statcast reading.

 

He's never been a statcast darling though. It's also a SSS.

 

As I said, there might be a 75% probability he isn't anywhere close to the player he was in 2019, but if he doesn't cost much, it's still worth the risk because the massive upside is there. We see players who transform into new players when injected into a playoff race every year.

 

He's also just a good fit. Can play SS with Bo out, can play some OF (if we move Gurriell) and can play some 3rd (I think) if Shaw doesn't turn it around.

[BlueRocky]

[Pendleton]

^ Not just the better player but more team control as well. There's just no way we should be moving any of our best prospects to rent a guy for 13 months.

[glory]

 

Ken Rcsenthal is never wrong.

[keggy]

 

 

I would do Gurriel + for Clevinger but not Groshans.

 

Gurriel for Clevinger would be a bigger fleecing than Lawrie+ for Donaldson.

[connorp]

Clev would be sweet. People can say all they want about Jays having payroll room but in this time of economic uncertainty, especially going into next year, I really doubt Jays are looking to add significant payroll

[saskjayfan]

Hard pass for me at that price. I'd rather grab Minor on the cheap.

 

Minor doesn't move the needle on competing this year. Lynn put up 6.8 wins last year. 1.3 wins this year. He's a legit number 2 who's under control for 9 mil next year. Losing Groshans leaves up with Martin, Martinez and Hiraldo. Losing Manoah leaves us with Pearson, Hatch, Kay, merryweather, SWR, Kloff, Van Eyk.

 

We have Bo and Cavan who are pretty much locked in for 5 more years. Ryu is locked in and Lynn would give be locked in next year. We'd have a crap ton of money to sign a pitcher this off season or the next with a very attractive team to lure free agents. I think Lynn would really move the needle in the off season if we wanted to get a Realmuto or a free agent pitcher.

[Abomination]

Clev would be sweet. People can say all they want about Jays having payroll room but in this time of economic uncertainty, especially going into next year, I really doubt Jays are looking to add significant payroll

 

The Jays are probably one of the few teams that are actually willing to, provided it's on expiring contracts.

[BlueRocky]

 

Umm....did they just ninja showcased Sean Reid-Foley?

[connorp]

The Jays are probably one of the few teams that are actually willing to, provided it's on expiring contracts.

 

I meant it’ll prob have to come in way of trade rather than FA and as you said, something short term. We all know Jays are run as business first, baseball team second

[Slade]

[connorp]

 

That was the likely outcome

[connorp]

I’ll hope for Bundy. Minor may be useless and Lynn will cost too much most likely. I’m not sure it’s “same only Bundy” as he’s definitely a different pitcher, not trying to live in the glory days of blowing people away. He’ll likely come fairly cheap

[Grant77]

Minor doesn't move the needle on competing this year. Lynn put up 6.8 wins last year. 1.3 wins this year. He's a legit number 2 who's under control for 9 mil next year. Losing Groshans leaves up with Martin, Martinez and Hiraldo. Losing Manoah leaves us with Pearson, Hatch, Kay, merryweather, SWR, Kloff, Van Eyk.

 

We have Bo and Cavan who are pretty much locked in for 5 more years. Ryu is locked in and Lynn would give be locked in next year. We'd have a crap ton of money to sign a pitcher this off season or the next with a very attractive team to lure free agents. I think Lynn would really move the needle in the off season if we wanted to get a Realmuto or a free agent pitcher.

 

I think Minor does move the needle. He's coming off of a season over 4 WAR with Cy Young votes. We grab a few cheap starts from him and then we have another solid lefty in the bullpen for the playoffs. I think it's a big win if we get him for cheap.

 

All of those free agent pitchers and Realmuto will still be there in the offseason whether we have Lance Lynn or not.

[Brownie19]

I think Minor does move the needle. He's coming off of a season over 4 WAR with Cy Young votes. We grab a few cheap starts from him and then we have another solid lefty in the bullpen for the playoffs. I think it's a big win if we get him for cheap.

 

All of those free agent pitchers and Realmuto will still be there in the offseason whether we have Lance Lynn or not.

 

Minor is like Villar. Potential to be a real game changer for a low price. However, the probability of that is probably only in the 25% range.

[jaysguy44]

Clevinger to the Padres is done

 

Late to the party Heyman

[Laika]

I wonder if Cleveland is getting Francisco Mejia back? More likely they would want Hedges.

The deal will need to be centred around someone like Abrams or Patino or Campusano.

Josh Naylor could make sense but he kind of sucks.

Wil Myers fits the Indians but I don't know how they make the money work.

[connorp]

Naylor, Arias, and Quantrill main pieces?

[Laika]

Naylor, Arias, and Quantrill main pieces?

 

Seems awfully light. Naylor and Quantrill or more name value than actual value right now.