2020 Trade Deadline Thread

[glory]

[Laika]

 

Remember, the what he Mets paid for Stroman was unanimously considered ridiculously light.

 

Don't trust any opinions that are fed to reporters.

[Maine Jays]

This team really needs a 3rd baseman. I was really happy with the move to add Shaw and see if he could regain his 2017-2018 form - especially with another year of control. But it's looking like he won't.

 

We probably need a starting 3rd baseman for the remainder of this season + 2021 at least until Groshans or Martin are ready.

 

I think we should target Kyle Seager. He's under control for 2021 at $18M and then has a 2022 option. He isn't sexy, but he'll plug a pretty glaring hole.[/

 

Why settle when there's a much bigger fish available? Give the Rockies a call and see what the cost for Nolan Arenado would be before the Yankees go snag him.

[BlueRocky]

I’d take Gausman for his likely very cheap price. Definitely would rather have him start a playoff game over Roark or Anderson. Not like he’s a big upgrade but for the cost

 

Yankees are all over Gausman. If Jays don’t get him, he’s going to a division rival.

[connorp]

Yankees are all over Gausman. If Jays don’t get him, he’s going to a division rival.

 

Yeah I could see it where Yanks get him and he somehow stops letting up HRs and figures it all out

[devo]

Why settle when there's a much bigger fish available? Give the Rockies a call and see what the cost for Nolan Arenado would be before the Yankees go snag him.

 

1. Massive acquisition cost

2. Huge contract/salary to take on

3. He has an opt out available after next season

4. Arenado has a full no trade so who knows if he would even approve of a trade to the Jays

[Brownie19]

Why settle when there's a much bigger fish available? Give the Rockies a call and see what the cost for Nolan Arenado would be before the Yankees go snag him.

 

I mean sure. I wonder what the cost is considering he can opt out after 2021. I suspect it would be incredibly high, whereas the price for Seager would be substantially lower (article I read suggested the M's would have to eat cost to move him).

[connorp]

I mean sure. I wonder what the cost is considering he can opt out after 2021. I suspect it would be incredibly high, whereas the price for Seager would be substantially lower (article I read suggested the M's would have to eat cost to move him).

 

Well, it couldn’t possibly work out any worse than the last time they traded for a supposedly superstar Coors hitter

[Abomination]

Yeah I could see it where Yanks get him and he somehow stops letting up HRs and figures it all out

 

I could see where the Yankees get him and he goes Sonny Gray on them too.

[connorp]

I admit I have no idea what NA’s splits are

[Grant77]

I mean sure. I wonder what the cost is considering he can opt out after 2021. I suspect it would be incredibly high, whereas the price for Seager would be substantially lower (article I read suggested the M's would have to eat cost to move him).

 

Seager's production tailed off considerably shortly after he signed that big contract. They are probably eager to cash in when his value is at it's highest. I wouldn't give up anything for him unless they eat the contract down to at least 12 million for both years. That contract has negative value in my opinion.

[connorp]

I admit I have no idea what NA’s splits are

 

.791 OPS away..Tulo was around there I think

[King]

Well, it couldn’t possibly work out any worse than the last time they traded for a supposedly superstar Coors hitter

So much for no longer posting on the main board

[connorp]

So much for no longer posting on the main board

 

I announced the end of my Conor McGregor retirement yesterday. You must’ve missed it. Then I went on blabbing all sorts of non-baseball stuff all day, so I’m making up for it today by staying on-topic

[Jimcanuck]

Matt Boyd pulled from his start today

[Abomination]

Matt Boyd pulled from his start today

 

The weather is pulling both teams from playing today, at least for now.

[Jimcanuck]

The weather is pulling both teams from playing today, at least for now.

 

He was supposed to start the 1st game. It's Skubal now

[Brownie19]

Seager's production tailed off considerably shortly after he signed that big contract. They are probably eager to cash in when his value is at it's highest. I wouldn't give up anything for him unless they eat the contract down to at least 12 million for both years. That contract has negative value in my opinion.

 

He posted 2.9 WAR last year for $19.5M and is at 1.0 WAR this year already. If you compare him with Moustakas, who just got 4 years at $16M AAV then sure, he's probably making a little more than market value, but I'm not sure how you see that as negative value. Given our payroll situation and massive need at 3rd, I'd have no problem taking him on for the remainder of this season + next year at $18.5M with the hopes of getting 2.5 to 3 WAR out of him.

 

I'd rather take on all his contract and give them less in return than have them eat some of the contract and expect a better return.

 

Then with a team option for 2022 at $15M - he provides some flexibility.

[Laika]

... he's probably making a little more than market value, but I'm not sure how you see that as negative value.

 

That's pretty much the definition of a negative value contract. If it's more expensive than the market rate for the wins the player will produce, it has negative value.

 

Seager's team option for 2022 becomes a player's option if he is traded.

[jays4life19]

I would be fine with Seager if the cost in prospects was low. This team can take on money and it's only 2 more years. Seager was not healthy in 2018 and going into 2019. 2nd half of last year he hit 129 wRC+ and is carrying it over to this year. Good defender and gives us that vetrin presentz.

[Brownie19]

That's pretty much the definition of a negative value contract. If it's more expensive than the market rate for the wins the player will produce, it has negative value.

 

Seager's team option for 2022 becomes a player's option if he is traded.

 

Fair enough (we all knew Grant was right anyway). I guess $6.7M per WAR is below average value in today's market. Didn't know that detail about the player option, but I don't think that would totally deter the Jays anyway. If anything, it decreases Seager's trade value.

 

Point stands - we have the worst 3rd base situation in baseball with no clear upgrade in sight for another couple of years.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020-replacement-level-killers-third-basemen-and-center-fielders/

[Laika]

Fair enough (we all knew Grant was right anyway). I guess $6.7M per WAR is below average value in today's market. Didn't know that detail about the player option, but I don't think that would totally deter the Jays anyway. If anything, it decreases Seager's trade value.

 

Point stands - we have the worst 3rd base situation in baseball with no clear upgrade in sight for another couple of years.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020-replacement-level-killers-third-basemen-and-center-fielders/

 

Yeah 3B seems ugly. I'd probably trade for Seager. When you look at his career trends, 2018 and the first portion of 2019 kind of just look like a random blip. I dunno!

 

BUT Shaw is weirding me out. He is surprisingly good at 3B per the metrics, despite visually not looking that athletic. He is also hitting the living piss out of the baseball right now despite the poor results and K rate. Like, 95th percentile in exit velo.

 

wOBA = .262

xwOBA = .342

 

Seager's xwOBA is like .379 though and was .356 last year

[Brownie19]

Yeah 3B seems ugly. I'd probably trade for Seager. When you look at his career trends, 2018 and the first portion of 2019 kind of just look like a random blip. I dunno!

 

BUT Shaw is weirding me out. He is surprisingly good at 3B per the metrics, despite visually not looking that athletic. He is also hitting the living piss out of the baseball right now despite the poor results and K rate. Like, 95th percentile in exit velo.

 

wOBA = .262

xwOBA = .342

 

Seager's xwOBA is like .379 though and was .356 last year

 

Yeah I was looking at Shaw's statcast numbers today. They weren't overly impressive in 2017 and 2018 when he was great. He's hitting the ball very hard this year, but with s***** results. Perhaps selling out contact for power? Seems odd as that wasn't his recipe for success previously.

[bones10]

Yeah 3B seems ugly. I'd probably trade for Seager. When you look at his career trends, 2018 and the first portion of 2019 kind of just look like a random blip. I dunno!

 

BUT Shaw is weirding me out. He is surprisingly good at 3B per the metrics, despite visually not looking that athletic. He is also hitting the living piss out of the baseball right now despite the poor results and K rate. Like, 95th percentile in exit velo.

 

wOBA = .262

xwOBA = .342

 

Seager's xwOBA is like .379 though and was .356 last year

 

Atkins straight up said theyre only looking for pitching and a defensive upgrade right, he must be looking at these numbers and thinking Shaw will produce down the line. If you look at it, especially with bichette coming back there isn't a lot of glaring holes in the lineup, with exception of maybe catcher, but Jansen and McGuire have to figure that out. A defensive upgrade like Simmons pushes panik off the team (I hope) and then the bench is sorted once bichette is back.

[BlueRocky]

[John_Havok]

Atkins straight up said theyre only looking for pitching and a defensive upgrade right, he must be looking at these numbers and thinking Shaw will produce down the line. If you look at it, especially with bichette coming back there isn't a lot of glaring holes in the lineup, with exception of maybe catcher, but Jansen and McGuire have to figure that out. A defensive upgrade like Simmons pushes panik off the team (I hope) and then the bench is sorted once bichette is back.

 

I promise you, Atkins is looking at every position to upgrade, not just pitching and defensive upgrades. He may get nowhere, but he’s looking

[Laika]

I promise you, Atkins is looking at every position to upgrade, not just pitching and defensive upgrades. He may get nowhere, but he’s looking

 

Every other GM: Hi Ross, can I help you?

Ross Atkins: No thanks - just looking.

[Grant77]

He posted 2.9 WAR last year for $19.5M and is at 1.0 WAR this year already. If you compare him with Moustakas, who just got 4 years at $16M AAV then sure, he's probably making a little more than market value, but I'm not sure how you see that as negative value. Given our payroll situation and massive need at 3rd, I'd have no problem taking him on for the remainder of this season + next year at $18.5M with the hopes of getting 2.5 to 3 WAR out of him.

 

I'd rather take on all his contract and give them less in return than have them eat some of the contract and expect a better return.

 

Then with a team option for 2022 at $15M - he provides some flexibility.

 

I'm just not buying that Seager is a new player this year, despite the hot start in 2020. I think that the downward trajectory we've seen for a few years from Seager will continue through the next two and a half seasons. That's just my opinion.

 

I'd prefer to get a cheap option to supplement Shaw (Maikel Franco?). Then we can see what the market is in the offseason and reevaluate. Seager will probably still be available at that point.

[Brownie19]

I'm just not buying that Seager is a new player this year, despite the hot start in 2020. I think that the downward trajectory we've seen for a few years from Seager will continue through the next two and a half seasons. That's just my opinion.

 

I'd prefer to get a cheap option to supplement Shaw (Maikel Franco?). Then we can see what the market is in the offseason and reevaluate. Seager will probably still be available at that point.

 

You don't have to buy him as a 'new player' this year. Buy him for what he was last year (2.9 WAR). Even at his shittiest, he was worth 1.5 WAR over a full season. The floor is pretty damn high here.

 

I think the point is Seager would be a cheap option in terms of he won't cost us much in the way of prospects. He's expensive, but given the payroll position we're in, who cares. I don't have a crystal ball, but he's been trending up since the start of the 2018 season. I think someone noted injuries hampered him in 2017 and the start of 2018.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/graphs?statArr=61&legend=1,2&split=base&time=season&ymin=&ymax=&dStatArray=

 

Maikel Franco sucks. A.Cabrera would be another option for this year, but he's an impending FA. We need someone solid at 3rd now and probably until the middle of 2022...

Edited August 28, 2020 by Brownie19

[connorp]

You don't have to buy him as a 'new player' this year. Buy him for what he was last year (2.9 WAR). Even at his shittiest, he was worth 1.5 WAR over a full season. The floor is pretty damn high here.

 

I think the point is Seager would be a cheap option in terms of he won't cost us much in the way of prospects. He's expensive, but given the payroll position we're in, who cares. I don't have a crystal ball, but he's been trending up since the start of the 2018 season. I think someone noted injuries hampered him in 2017 and the start of 2018.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/graphs?statArr=61&legend=1,2&split=base&time=season&ymin=&ymax=&dStatArray=

 

Maikel Franco sucks. A.Cabrera would be another option for this year, but he's a FA after this year. We need someone solid at 3rd now and probably until the middle of 2022...

 

Corporate Rogers cares I bet:)