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Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

King

By King
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glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I’ll be honest I haven’t given trade scenarios any thought because I don’t see them trading him

 

Yeah, I’m sure they wouldn’t mind trading him for the right deal, but this is selling massively low. Can’t see them doing that. Certainly not after this season. After next season if he’s coming off another bad year then maybe, but even then the return would be so minimal that it wouldn’t be worth it vs keeping him and hoping he has a big contract year.

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Laika
Laika

There is no narrative like that. That's in your head.

Omar
Omar
Terminator
Terminator

It wasn't that big of a deal Dean.   I co-mingled some clients funds a little bit on accident and then I had a Vegas trip planned for my 62nd birthday. One thing lead to another and I ended up losing

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
LTBF wants to sign him to a 12 year 380 million dollar contract though.

 

We all like LTBF but when it comes to Vlad on this Board, I think you may have noticed that the cheese has slipped off his cracker.

Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
While perhaps somewhere I said 'release him 15 minutes after today's game' in a moment of frustration I don't think I ever seriously thought Guerrero was getting released after this season, not sure why people are accusing me of that. What I have said is quite logical

 

If his counting stats in 2024 are high, but WAR low, and arbitration salary high what do you do in 2025?

 

Most people are at least acknowledging it's a fair question. No one (including myself) say release him this November

 

LTBF wants to sign him to a 12 year 380 million dollar contract though.

 

This offseason 10/225M is my guess

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Maybe Toronto can trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

 

The fans in Toronto are turning on him because of his low WAR and his frustrating track record. But he has a .383 xwOBA vs just a .339 wOBA. Every other year for him those numbers were congruent, like when he was bad his xwOBA was bad. So I dunno what is happening this year but if we zoom out it's probably just bad luck. Could be a sick buy low.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Maybe Toronto can trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

 

The fans in Toronto are turning on him because of his low WAR and his frustrating track record. But he has a .383 xwOBA vs just a .339 wOBA. Every other year for him those numbers were congruent, like when he was bad his xwOBA was bad. So I dunno what is happening this year but if we zoom out it's probably just bad luck. Could be a sick buy low.

 

Someone posted an article a while back about a major discrepancy in xwOBA on pulled fly balls vs fly balls to CF.

 

I think its really as simple as he’s not pulling enough fly balls, and his launch angle is slightly too high to where he’s not getting those homers to CF as often as he should.

 

Not everything is “bad luck”

 

Chapman is also having the same problem this year with his wOBA vs xwOBA, because he stopped pulling the ball.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

I would support a sneaky buy low Vlad extension this offseason tbh

 

I dunno if I'd do 10 years but what if he was willing to sign a 5 or 6 year deal? The final 2 arb years plus a few tack on years. From his perspective that would be a big pay day + he'd still have a chance to hit FA at 30 or whatever and still get a mega deal, if he turns back into an elite hitter.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Someone posted an article a while back about a major discrepancy in xwOBA on pulled fly balls vs fly balls to CF.

 

I think its really as simple as he’s not pulling enough fly balls, and his launch angle is slightly too high to where he’s not getting those homers to CF as often as he should.

 

Not everything is “bad luck”

 

Chapman is also having the same problem this year with his wOBA vs xwOBA, because he stopped pulling the ball.

 

Yeah I don't think it's "bad luck" either to be honest, but the question of how permanent it is remains. It has not been a career long problem. It seems like his swing is mechanically busted right now for some reason. Anything inside is a groundball. Like when he tries to pull a fastball, he is almost incapable of getting it in the air.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah I don't think it's "bad luck" either to be honest, but the question of how permanent it is remains. It has not been a career long problem. It seems like his swing is mechanically busted right now for some reason. Anything inside is a groundball. Like when he tries to pull a fastball, he is almost incapable of getting it in the air.

 

Well on the bright side, he pulled some nice fastballs in the air in coors so we know he’s capable of doing it. Hard to tell if its a mechanical issue or an approach issue or both

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Well on the bright side, he pulled some nice fastballs in the air in coors so we know he’s capable of doing it. Hard to tell if its a mechanical issue or an approach issue or both

 

Even that one where he almost got thrown out... it's like the ball had extreme top spin, lmao. How the f*** did that not go out, in Coors Field?

 

Vlad would be great at tennis. He's basically a Williams sister.

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I would support a sneaky buy low Vlad extension this offseason tbh

 

I dunno if I'd do 10 years but what if he was willing to sign a 5 or 6 year deal? The final 2 arb years plus a few tack on years. From his perspective that would be a big pay day + he'd still have a chance to hit FA at 30 or whatever and still get a mega deal, if he turns back into an elite hitter.

 

100%. 5-6 year deal. Worth the risk based on the underlying numbers. Longer than that given his position, D, struggles and body type gives me pause. If you look back even Bryce Harper had some mediocre years mixed in. In 2015 his wRC+ was f***ing 197 in a 9.3 WAR season...then he followed up in 2016 with 111. 2017 back to 155.

hanton Dunedin Blue Jays

hanton

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I would support a sneaky buy low Vlad extension this offseason tbh

 

I dunno if I'd do 10 years but what if he was willing to sign a 5 or 6 year deal? The final 2 arb years plus a few tack on years. From his perspective that would be a big pay day + he'd still have a chance to hit FA at 30 or whatever and still get a mega deal, if he turns back into an elite hitter.

 

That is the play.

 

Should have been done years ago but it's obviously not Atkins' style

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Even that one where he almost got thrown out... it's like the ball had extreme top spin, lmao. How the f*** did that not go out, in Coors Field?

 

Vlad would be great at tennis. He's basically a Williams sister.

 

lmao

Omar All-Star

Omar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Vladdy will have a nervous breakdown when they sign Bo to a huge deal and he is offered a pittance in return. Going to be drama if one of the two is not moved.
hanton Dunedin Blue Jays

hanton

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Really nice to see Vlad come through with a big hit tonight. Every time it happens a small part of me still wonders if this is where the dam bursts.

 

on a 3 - 0 pitch with Schneider on deck, that hit saved this message board

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I was happy off the bat... for sure thought it was gone.

 

Something is still off with his swing, because yeah it looked like he murdered it off the bat and it barely reached the base of the wall.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Something is still off with his swing, because yeah it looked like he murdered it off the bat and it barely reached the base of the wall.

 

I didn't read the weird back spring article, but there is nothing too weird in the batted ball data.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 57 7 Double 97.9 22 367 99.4 .330 0/30

 

Last night's double was 97.9 22 degrees, for him he just missed it. Maybe that goes a little farther with different spin but the issue is still combining his top end exit-V with a 27 degree launch angle. Doesn't do that much.

 

I checked his entire year of game logs yesterday and he's not hitting a bunch of 380 foot fly ball outs. The problem is way less long fly balls, half as much as 2021.

mellowgold First Round Pick

mellowgold

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
on a 3 - 0 pitch with Schneider on deck, that hit saved this message board

 

I think all of that is irrelevant at this point with Vlad. I think it's more about feeling good about himself and getting some confidence back. But who the hell knows.

L54 Vancouver Canadians

L54

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Vlad is going to stuff his fat f***ing face with uncrustables and eat himself to sleep tonight.

 

Get it all out little guy don’t stop now

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