Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Olerud363]

October 5th 2021, everyone on the board should try to plan to be available for discussion, it won't be until that day we have enough info to decide who needs to be sent to Indy ball, and who can stay up with the big club.

[Brownie19]

Covid ball low sample size is just a recipe for deception. Even the 60 games isn't enough, especially since it is like 30 games if you get an injury.

 

Like Randall Grichuk has completely regressed to 2018 Randall Grichuk, which is fine, that's a winning piece if he isn't one of the top 4 pieces.

 

Hernandez (down), Vladdy (up), Jansen (up), would all normalize a bit over 160...

 

I think it is pretty possible Vlad will look like the worst failure of all time if he slumps the next 2 weeks (.220 .300 .390 or something), could look fine if he heats up (.270, .340 .470). Not a huge deal either way, but it will be in the books, and hopefully the team makes sure he gets his head right, and is ready for 600 outstanding plate appearances next year.

 

When they've all had a full year we can have some opinions.

 

Fair enough - but in terms of Teo - he's raked since returning to the big club in the middle of last year. The sample size is larger. Same with LGJ....they are both looking legit.

 

We'll need to see more of Tellez of course, but the K% and BB% took a huge step in the right direction this year and I'm told those both stabilize relatively quickly.

[connorp]

Fair enough - but in terms of Teo - he's raked since returning to the big club in the middle of last year. The sample size is larger. Same with LGJ....they are both looking legit.

 

We'll need to see more of Tellez of course, but the K% and BB% took a huge step in the right direction this year and I'm told those both stabilize relatively quickly.

 

I didn’t know that about Teo; the really strong 2nd half. That’s encouraging. I tend to pay less attention when the Jays suck...like most admitted fair-weather fans

[Olerud363]

I didn’t know that about Teo; the really strong 2nd half. That’s encouraging. I tend to pay less attention when the Jays suck...like most admitted fair-weather fans

 

I heard on another channel that Vladdy has another fat little friend coming to join the team. I know sometimes fat people need to see a person that looks like them to believe they can do it to, so hopefully they inspire each other.

 

At our local YMCA triathlon a 300 pound guy finished and it inspired a bunch of others for the next year.

 

And don't tell me Rowdy is fat too, he's just the 6'5" guy who has wide shoulders, Vladdy and Kirk are true brothers.

 

Hope they inspire each other.

[Olerud363]

Imagine how White Sox fans feel that they traded Tatis Jr. for James Shields.

 

That's why I roll my eyes at a couple of packages that were suggested this trade deadline that involved Orelvis Martinez.

 

Maybe Tatis was a bit more of a surprise, I can't remember, but seems pretty stupid to trade any of these top 5 international guys at 17.

[Laika]

That's why I roll my eyes at a couple of packages that were suggested this trade deadline that involved Orelvis Martinez.

 

Maybe Tatis was a bit more of a surprise, I can't remember, but seems pretty stupid to trade any of these top 5 international guys at 17.

 

I think Tatis was like the 30th ranked prospect in his IFA class. At the time of the Shields trade everyone would have reported Erik Johnson as the first piece going to San Diego.

 

MLB.com's scouting report from his IFA year:

 

In their scouting report, MLB.com said, “Scouts like Tatis Jr.’s swing, his strong arm and his fluid actions on defense. He’s shown decent arm strength and raw power to his pull side. Tatis Jr.’s knack for barreling up balls and his repeatable swing have also impressed evaluators.” Jeff Buchanan of FutureSox wrote, “Tatis clearly doesn’t have the same upside as [White Sox top 2015 international signing] Franklin Reyes, but his well-rounded skillset, high baseball IQ and professional mentality mean he likely comes with less risk than Reyes and is a better bet to maximize his potential as a possible everyday player.”

 

Every year a dozen Fernando Tatis Jr.'s get signed as babies. Most never make the big leagues. One every hundred years turns into this version of Tatis Jr. Poor White Sox!

[Olerud363]

Just makes me sad that a ctrl+f search for "vlad" or "guer" brings up 0 results in that article. Vlad was supposed to be THE most surefire prospect since Harper, but look where we are.

 

It still dumbfounding. Guys like Travis Snider or Lawrie had warts and still it was a surprise when they failed.

 

Vlad hit .402 with power in double a.

 

Vlad has a 19-12 bb-k ratio in aaa. He struck-out 12 times in 39 games.

 

Is it just fitness ??

 

Montreal game

 

 

 

Completely different guy?? Looks solid, no gut, swing looks a bit quicker, maybe flatter, not as much an uppercut, explosive talent ready to destroy MLB... then he gains 30 pounds of slop and the swing looks a bit slower and loopier now.

 

Or is it just me?? Fitness and swing gurus what do you think?

[Laika]

It still dumbfounding. Guys like Travis Snider or Lawrie had warts and still it was a surprise when they failed.

 

Vlad hit .402 with power in double a.

 

Vlad has a 19-12 bb-k ratio in aaa. He struck-out 12 times in 39 games.

 

Is it just fitness ??

 

Montreal game

 

 

Completely different guy?? Looks solid, no gut, swing looks a bit quicker, maybe flatter, not as much an uppercut, explosive talent ready to destroy MLB... then he gains 30 pounds of slop and the swing looks a bit slower and loopier now.

 

Or is it just me?? Fitness and swing gurus what do you think?

 

He looks very different now, for sure. I do think fitness is the main issue.

 

I don't think it's as simple as "fat = bad"; we have seen many of fat power hitters. BUT most of the fat power hitters either came up fat or slowly got fat. Vlad gained a large amount of weight in a relatively short period of time. I think this happened pre-2019 and then again pre-2020. It has to mess up the swing mechanics.

 

If you look at a 2020 HR compared to that Montreal homer, the bat looks a bit slower and he does not look as balanced in 2020. His hips don't clear out properly.

[Krylian]

It still dumbfounding. Guys like Travis Snider or Lawrie had warts and still it was a surprise when they failed.

 

Vlad hit .402 with power in double a.

 

Vlad has a 19-12 bb-k ratio in aaa. He struck-out 12 times in 39 games.

 

Is it just fitness ??

 

Montreal game

 

 

 

Completely different guy?? Looks solid, no gut, swing looks a bit quicker, maybe flatter, not as much an uppercut, explosive talent ready to destroy MLB... then he gains 30 pounds of slop and the swing looks a bit slower and loopier now.

 

Or is it just me?? Fitness and swing gurus what do you think?

 

That doesn't even look like the same player.

[Brownie19]

That doesn't even look like the same player.

 

Holy f*** - it sure doesn't. So disappointing.

 

Here's a video of his debut....still MUCH smaller. Check out the 1:38 mark. Batting practice HR off a fans face...and then they replay it in slow motion!

 

[wilko]

Holy f*** - it sure doesn't. So disappointing.

 

Here's a video of his debut....still MUCH smaller. Check out the 1:38 mark. Batting practice HR off a fans face...and then they replay it in slow motion!

 

 

Gotta pay attention out there! But yeah, it's like night/day right now for Vlad.

[dineke]

And chances are he is only going to get fatter as he ages lmao

[Olerud363]

And chances are he is only going to get fatter as he ages lmao

 

Just for comparision

 

Frank Thomas 1990 -

Frank Thomas 2007 -

 

Vlad Guerrero JR 2018 -

Vlad Guerrero JR 2020 -

 

Guys change over the years, it is only natural. Frank Thomas by the time he got to us from Chicago was a bit bigger and no longer had the bat speed to be a .320 hitter. Still a bit of power but not 40 homer power.

 

Same with Vladdy, the younger Vladdy JR would of been a .320 hitter no problem, but by the time he got to us from New Hamphsire he was bigger and the bat slower. Like old Frank still can get one up in the stands once in a while but no longer the cobra he was in his 2018 prime.

[Orgfiller]

Just for comparision

 

Frank Thomas 1990 -

Frank Thomas 2007 -

 

Vlad Guerrero JR 2018 -

Vlad Guerrero JR 2020 -

 

Guys change over the years, it is only natural. Frank Thomas by the time he got to us from Chicago was a bit bigger and no longer had the bat speed to be a .320 hitter. Still a bit of power but not 40 homer power.

 

Same with Vladdy, the younger Vladdy JR would of been a .320 hitter no problem, but by the time he got to us from New Hamphsire he was bigger and the bat slower. Like old Frank still can get one up in the stands once in a while but no longer the cobra he was in his 2018 prime.

 

I don't think comparing a 39 year old Frank Thomas to his 22 year old self is the same as comparing 18/19 year old Vladdy to 21 year old Vladdy lol. The former's hitting ability declining is just a natural product of age based decline. Vlad got fat, beyond reasonable body growth given his age, and his batted ball profile got bad. It's not comparable at all lol.

 

Frank Thomas didn't even get fat, he was just an absolute tank his whole career and obviously at some point his bat speed was gonna decline.

[BlueBaller]

I think a major problem for Vlad is he load up to swing. Way too much movement, and he put the bat in an awkward place just before swinging.

[RobinThicc]

They really need to get through to him.

 

He's added like 20 pounds of fat in 2 years lol

[43211234]

They really need to get through to him.

 

He's added like 20 pounds of fat in 2 years lol

 

20?

 

More like 40+

[Olerud363]

I think a major problem for Vlad is he load up to swing. Way too much movement, and he put the bat in an awkward place just before swinging.

 

Didn't they make some adjustments a couple of weeks ago then give up on them when he went 4/30 ??

 

Maybe needs to watch video of EE, Trout, young Pujols and other big legends.

[Boxcar]

Just for comparision

 

Frank Thomas 1990 -

Frank Thomas 2007 -

 

Vlad Guerrero JR 2018 -

Vlad Guerrero JR 2020 -

 

Guys change over the years, it is only natural. Frank Thomas by the time he got to us from Chicago was a bit bigger and no longer had the bat speed to be a .320 hitter. Still a bit of power but not 40 homer power.

 

Same with Vladdy, the younger Vladdy JR would of been a .320 hitter no problem, but by the time he got to us from New Hamphsire he was bigger and the bat slower. Like old Frank still can get one up in the stands once in a while but no longer the cobra he was in his 2018 prime.

 

God those black jerseys. Yech

[Laika]

I don't think comparing a 39 year old Frank Thomas to his 22 year old self is the same as comparing 18/19 year old Vladdy to 21 year old Vladdy lol. The former's hitting ability declining is just a natural product of age based decline. Vlad got fat, beyond reasonable body growth given his age, and his batted ball profile got bad. It's not comparable at all lol.

 

Frank Thomas didn't even get fat, he was just an absolute tank his whole career and obviously at some point his bat speed was gonna decline.

 

That's Olerud's whole point. Vlad aged 15+ years in two offseasons. He now has the body of someone who should be aging out of baseball.

[z3r0s]

We all just need to hope that 2 years of middling offensive production get it in his head that he'll need to trim down to compete at this level.

[goldbug103]

We all just need to hope that 2 years of middling offensive production get it in his head that he'll need to trim down to compete at this level.

 

Thank goodness the Jays didn’t commit big money to Fatty as some were suggesting. Fatty can’t even get around or pull standard MLB fastballs.

[BlueBaller]

I honestly just don't think he cares enough. He's a bust.

[BlueBaller]

It still dumbfounding. Guys like Travis Snider or Lawrie had warts and still it was a surprise when they failed.

 

Vlad hit .402 with power in double a.

 

Vlad has a 19-12 bb-k ratio in aaa. He struck-out 12 times in 39 games.

 

Is it just fitness ??

 

Montreal game

 

 

 

Completely different guy?? Looks solid, no gut, swing looks a bit quicker, maybe flatter, not as much an uppercut, explosive talent ready to destroy MLB... then he gains 30 pounds of slop and the swing looks a bit slower and loopier now.

 

Or is it just me?? Fitness and swing gurus what do you think?

it's funny how tabler mentions how much vladdy likes ice cream.

[Olerud363]

I honestly just don't think he cares enough. He's a bust.

 

Reconvene early October 2021. Covid ball is too short to make that conclusion.

 

Back in the day I used to follow the 90s Jays (probably didn't guess I try not to ramble about it too much)

 

My favourite player was John Olerud (probably didn't guess either)

 

Around game 45 of the 91 season he looked terrible - .203 ..298 .349

 

Round game 45 of the 92 season looked terrible as well. Recovered in both cases to put up decent years

 

Then went bananas in 93.

 

Then around game 50 of the 95 season looked awful hitting .230 again. But recovered to almost hit .300.

 

Then they sat him for Jacob Brumfield and sent him to the Mets, but he rebounded hitting .350 again

 

and put up 58 WAR for his career, but there were many moments he looked as bad if not worse than Vladimir jr.

 

But they always said the son of a bitch would hit and he did.

 

I think it will be the same for VGJ but he needs 150 games. He hasn't put up his 1.250 OPS months yet, but he will put up a couple in 2021.

[5minutesforframing]

Reconvene early October 2021. Covid ball is too short to make that conclusion.

 

Back in the day I used to follow the 90s Jays (probably didn't guess I try not to ramble about it too much)

 

My favourite player was John Olerud (probably didn't guess either)

 

Around game 45 of the 91 season he looked terrible - .203 ..298 .349

 

Round game 45 of the 92 season looked terrible as well. Recovered in both cases to put up decent years

 

Then went bananas in 93.

 

Then around game 50 of the 95 season looked awful hitting .230 again. But recovered to almost hit .300.

 

Then they sat him for Jacob Brumfield and sent him to the Mets, but he rebounded hitting .350 again

 

and put up 58 WAR for his career, but there were many moments he looked as bad if not worse than Vladimir jr.

 

But they always said the son of a bitch would hit and he did.

 

I think it will be the same for VGJ but he needs 150 games. He hasn't put up his 1.250 OPS months yet, but he will put up a couple in 2021.

 

Olerud was never morbidly obese. Vlad is starting to look like Jon Daly in his 50s.

[Olerud363]

Olerud was never morbidly obese. Vlad is starting to look like Jon Daly in his 50s.

 

Valid point. Still I want to see him over 150 games. I want to see all of them over 150 games.

 

Hilarious how even on good nights like last night Vladdy still has a 60% ground ball rate.

 

He was a triple away from the cycle. I want to see him hit for the cycle with an 80% ground ball rate.

 

1. Triple grounded down the right field line launch angle -8

2. Ground out to short launch angle -18

3. Single grounded to right opposite the shift launch angle -15

4. 115 mph HR left field launch angle 18

5. 118 mph double pulverized past the 3rd basemen launch angle -2

 

Stats on the night

 

Weight - 272

Ground ball rate - 80%

Launch angle - worm killing

Cycle - yes

[Olerud363]

Some guys are polluting last nights game thread with a "Vlad to Indy Ball" discussion.

 

Nothing too new there. I will say Vlad is the same guy every night. 2-3 ground balls and something different.

 

When the "something different" is the homer that comes around every 10 days and a grounder gets to the outfield he seems like he is turning it around.

 

No. Next night no homer, and no grounders get by the infield. It happens the same over and over and over and over.

 

He had a homer 4 days ago, so next homer will be in the Thursday to Saturday range next week. Tonight the only question is will a grounder get by the infield or not?

[Olerud363]

Also, I am being a bad scientist with the above post. Just because he hit a homer 4 days ago doesn't mean he won't hit one tonight. It just seems that way.

 

Every day he has about a 1/10 chance of hitting a homer that game, depending on the matchup and other things. It's independent of what happened the previous days. He could (and has) even hit two in a game.

[goldbug103]

Also, I am being a bad scientist with the above post. Just because he hit a homer 4 days ago doesn't mean he won't hit one tonight. It just seems that way.

 

Every day he has about a 1/10 chance of hitting a homer that game, depending on the matchup and other things. It's independent of what happened the previous days. He could (and has) even hit two in a game.

 

Fatty hits a HR once every 6 to 7 games. Still, its bad production for a 1B/DH type. What kind of mechanical adjustment is needed to increase launch angle ?